Storms Return Late Friday Night

April 27, 2005, 4:50 am
Posted by James Spann in Weather Discussions
Rating: 0/5   Votes : 0
The Wednesday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

I should also mention I posted the Storm Alert 2005 TV special on that video page last night.... so if you missed it, or live out of market, you can watch it online now. It includes some good stories on Hurricane Ivan, Bill Murray's Great Plains tornado adventure, and more.

Nice spring weather with a warming trend headlines our forecast through tomorrow; most of the attention will be focused on the next storm event late Friday night and early Saturday morning...

Sure looks like a potent severe weather setup for parts of the deep south. For Alabama, the greatest chance of severe weather will come from about 10:00 p.m. Friday through 10:00 a.m. Saturday. I get the idea most of the storms will be over by 6:00 a.m. Saturday. This is great news for everyone planning on enjoying the races at Talladega this weekend.

Late Friday, a deepening surface low will move from near Tulsa to southern Indiana, while high surface dewpoints will surge northward over the southern U.S. In the upper levels, a strong trough will go negative tilt to some degree as it passes north of us, and wind fields at all levels will be very strong.

Severe storms with damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes will likely form over Mississippi, Arkansas, and west Tennessee Friday afternoon. If model parameters are correct, a few strong, long track tornadoes will be possible in this region. All of this should evolve into a long squall line which will race through Alabama late Friday night and during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning. This would suggest our greatest threat would be from damaging winds with the squall line. But, this early in the game, you can't rule out a few isolated supercell storms in advance of the line that could produce a tornado or two.

We have had so many moderate risk busts this season I hope folks won't ignore this one; looks like the most potent threat of the season in general.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: We will be rain-free Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Afternoon highs on both days will be in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS has backed off on the amount of rain expected during the middle of next week, leaving a lower confidence forecast out there. Lets get through the Friday night event and we can concentrate on it over the weekend...
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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 6:06 am
Night time cooling not going to be a factor here?
The last couple of times we have had a night time even .. or a night squall it has fizzled out..

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 6:15 am
Ya never know Scott. The worst weather I've EVER seen in my life..the only time I was truly SCARED of bad weather happened at 3:00am in the morning. We'll just have to see. That time frame will PROBABLY mean that we will not get the worst of it...but you just neve know.

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Posted by www  
on April 27, 2005, 7:43 am
If it looks like the most potent system of the season, and you don't want it to be ignored, why aren't you talking it up like you did the last ones that busted??? Seems to me that if you wanted it to be recognized, you would put a little more emphasis on it than you did.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 7:54 am
Hey www can't you come up with somthing better than that? It's true the last few storms that have came thru did not do nothing, I think the best thing to do here is to wait and see.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 8:05 am
My son will camp Friday night at Camp Comer at Lake Republic. I am not sure of the exact location but it is in the mountains of Eastern Alabama. This has me concerned. Their website says they have severe weather drills. Hope they are prepared.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 8:14 am
Kim,
My question would be do they have adequate storm shelter.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 9:00 am
WWW
You are such a chicken man, you don't even put in a good email address where people can't respond back to you. Your posts are a waste of time and should be deleted

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 9:04 am
Hey Dale I agree with you 100%, but let's focus our minds on the severe weather coming up.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 9:26 am
What we need to wonder is if the folks at the speedway have an adequate way of warning folks. If a tornado went through the campgrounds by I-20 on Friday night into Saturday, with 45000 people there, it would unimaginable.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 9:29 am
WWW.. Im taking what James said with a grain of salt.. We have been under a moderate threat .. I think 3 times now this month.,. and I KNOW I have heard before that a storm system was going to be the most "potent one of the season" before.

So yea.. Im VERY sceptical.. especally since its coming through at the cooles part of the night..

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 9:45 am
Again, guys.. The synoptic scale model data points to a significant severe weather event over this section of the country...(not your county, or even state, necessarily). James is just letting us know what the models are saying. Tomorrow they could be saying something else and James & Co will keep us updated. However, MANY MANY times these model forecast DO verify and result in VERY dangerous conditions. ABC3340 ALWAYS warns that things could change and that their forecasts are based largely on imperfect computer models. This criticism of James is unfair and indicates a lack of understanding of basic weather forecasting tecniques.

Having said all that and in agreement with Michael... turning to the severe weather threat... have you seen the latest NAM from this morning? I am NOT an expert model reader (this far out all I ever do is look at the 4 panel charts) but it seems to me like maybe Huntsville and parts of TN could be getting the worst of this one and maybe not so much down here in BHAM. What do you guys think?


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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 10:23 am
Hey Andy where do get the model data that your are talking about? But again I think the best thing to do is to wait and see what will happen. In fact the models might show something new.

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Posted by Mike  
on April 27, 2005, 10:23 am
Concerning the people at the track, I have heard from someone who works there that there are several warning notification tools that would be implemented if necessary.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 10:29 am
My sister and brother-in-law are going to the races this weekend. They are going Friday-Sunday. I'm worried about the weather for them Friday night.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 10:42 am
www,
I for 1 am greatful that the last few times we were in for bad weahther nothing happened here. Keep in mind that just because you dont get bad weather at your house doesnt mean that someone 5 or 10 miles away wont get it.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 10:53 am
Michael: Here is the link to what I look at.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

These show 700, 850, 500, 300mb winds and 6 hr precip. That is enough to see 1) Where the moisture is and 2) how strong the winds are and to some extent how much veering with height... Basic indicators for severe weather but of course specifics will be determined much later... I don't even mess with mesoscale stuff until the day of the event.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 10:54 am
One of the worst storms i have been in hit at just after 5 a.m. in Arab. We had a f-3/f-4 rated tornado hit. believe me it can happen at anytime.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 11:04 am
Sure it CAN happen.. but as we have seen.. there is just as much chance that it WONT happen... even with strong indicators.. it can simply fizzle out... or it could be 500 F4's. No one really knows. James job.... is to let us know what MIGHT happen. He dosent know.. you dont know.

Just because there was a F4 at 3AM in 1960 (or when ever) dosent mean it will happen friday night/Saturday morning.

With weather an incident never means a pattern.



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Posted by jason  
on April 27, 2005, 12:10 pm
I haven't heard anybody guarantee a severe weather outbreak yet, probably b/c in weather there aren't any sure things. The SPC's severe thunderstorm outlook says "POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE".

Untill "POTENTIALLY" and "POSSIBLE" are givin the same definition as GUARANTEE, I think we lose our right to complain. These weather forecasts are a concious decision to listen or not to listen to and....... IT"S FREE!

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Posted by   www
on April 27, 2005, 12:46 pm
I agree that SPC has been out to lunch all spring here. BUT the blame does not lie with James, it lies with those issuing the warnings at NWS. They had us under slight risk yesterday with dewpoints and temps in the 50's. My biggest fear with all the 'busts' is that people ignore it as crying wolf and something bad happens to those not paying attention. I know some people think if there is a mod risk and lightening hits a tree in their backyard it lived up the billing. People need to see the parameters for each rish level, which have been listed here, and see how far off NWS/SPC have been. Again James is a channel for info to get to us, the problem lies further up the ladder. And you have to look at all they have said and wonder if they are blowing things out of proportion a little bit this year. I never want severe weather but don't overwarn, it conditions people to pay less and less attention.

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Posted by  
on April 27, 2005, 1:35 pm
Hey Andy thanks for the link I think it's cool.

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