Colder Days Ahead

After today, looks like we will go from the “severe weather” mode into the “winter storm” mode here in the weather office. We still have to get through another rain event on Thursday which might bring some flooding issues, but cooler air begins to return this weekend, with much colder air down the road. And, down the road I get the idea we will have at least one, maybe more, decent snow or ice threats as far south as I-20. Having said all of this, remember, there is very, very little skill in a specific forecast out beyond seven days. I have to repeat that disclaimer since so many new people read this!

Here is the best “guess” on future events, based on a blend of the American GFS and the European model output. In the December 14-15 time frame, a nice batch of Polar air works down into the southern states. Nothing record breaking, but it could push morning lows down in the 20s for the northern half of the state toward the middle of next week (about a week from now). Then, in the December 16-17 time frame, a big Arctic air mass moves down into the U.S., featuring a 1044 millibar high over Wyoming. And, at the same time, a storm system spins up in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

So, if we have a winter storm threat, best guess now on timing would be sometime in the December 16-19 period. There is absolutely no way to resolve details this far in advance, and there is a real chance the ice and snow threat will be north of Alabama closer to I-40 instead of I-20. But all of the ingredients will be in place. I won’t even get into the situation beyond that, but for those of you dreaming of a white Christmas, this might be our best chance since 1989. So, instead of a one in one thousand chance, we are probably down to a one in twenty chance this year. We do indeed have some fun days ahead in the weather office!