The Friday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This is becoming a difficult forecast with some model differences showing up.
SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe storms later today across southeast Arkansas, north Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and the northwest corner of Alabama. A slight risk surrounds the moderate risk and covers much of Alabama.
Here are some points to consider:
*Models are weaker with the 500 mb short wave.
*Models have moved the surface low more to the south in the latest runs. A blend of model output puts the surface low closer to Nashville during the pre-dawn hours.
*NAM wants to slow down the overall system a bit.
With the surface low position closer to us, that might mean some rotating storms over northwest Alabama late tonight. We still believe the storms will merge into a long squall line, passing through the state sometime during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Very strong wind fields mean the possibility of damaging winds along the line.
With some respect for the slower NAM model, we will now project the greatest risk of severe weather between 2:00 and 9:00 a.m. The overall threat will come from about midnight to noon. The model differences have made for a lower confidence on the specific timing.
It is interesting to note the NAM runs the surface dewpoint up to 69 at midday tomorrow with a surface based CAPE of over 3000! But, the dynamics will be mostly gone by then. The GFS has a drier airmass in place by then, however.
If the NAM is correct, there could be a few showers or storms into early tomorrow afternoon over east Alabama. For now we still think the rain will be over for the race tomorrow at the Talladega Superspeedway.
Sunday will be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Will be very interested to watch the 12Z models come in a little later this morning. I will be speaking at Chalkville Elementary today and back in the office after that for the afternoon update...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
This is becoming a difficult forecast with some model differences showing up.
SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe storms later today across southeast Arkansas, north Mississippi, southwest Tennessee, and the northwest corner of Alabama. A slight risk surrounds the moderate risk and covers much of Alabama.
Here are some points to consider:
*Models are weaker with the 500 mb short wave.
*Models have moved the surface low more to the south in the latest runs. A blend of model output puts the surface low closer to Nashville during the pre-dawn hours.
*NAM wants to slow down the overall system a bit.
With the surface low position closer to us, that might mean some rotating storms over northwest Alabama late tonight. We still believe the storms will merge into a long squall line, passing through the state sometime during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow. Very strong wind fields mean the possibility of damaging winds along the line.
With some respect for the slower NAM model, we will now project the greatest risk of severe weather between 2:00 and 9:00 a.m. The overall threat will come from about midnight to noon. The model differences have made for a lower confidence on the specific timing.
It is interesting to note the NAM runs the surface dewpoint up to 69 at midday tomorrow with a surface based CAPE of over 3000! But, the dynamics will be mostly gone by then. The GFS has a drier airmass in place by then, however.
If the NAM is correct, there could be a few showers or storms into early tomorrow afternoon over east Alabama. For now we still think the rain will be over for the race tomorrow at the Talladega Superspeedway.
Sunday will be a beautiful day with ample sunshine and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Will be very interested to watch the 12Z models come in a little later this morning. I will be speaking at Chalkville Elementary today and back in the office after that for the afternoon update...
on April 29, 2005, 5:24 am
Can you help us out and tell us about the city of Birmingham as well as Talladega?
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