Moderate Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of northwest Alabama under a *Moderate Risk* of severe weather for tonight. That includes cities like Muscle Shoals, Hamilton, Fayette, Jasper, Cullman, and Vernon.

Some of the latest model guidance suggests that there could be some isolated supercell thunderstorms in the northwestern corner of state late this evening and into the wee hours of Saturday morning. We still think, however, that the storms form into a squall line after 1:00 AM, and then they move through the rest of the state through the early morning hours.

In just the last few moments, a brand-new severe thunderstorm watch was issued for northern Mississippi, and that's where our eyes will be trained for the next few hours as we see exactly what develops!


Posted by Dave  
on April 29, 2005, 12:10 pm
Just got in from being out for a while. Have the more recent model runs come back in more agreement than earlier as far as the timing and the strength of the even?

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Posted by Clay  
on April 29, 2005, 12:13 pm
Hopefully the storms wont be able to sustain their potency through overnight hours...Is this a good possibility, the fact that less heat means weaker storms than what will take place west of here?

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 12:16 pm
Clay thats what Im thinking as well...


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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 12:51 pm
Sun has broken out here in central AL (S. Coosa Co.). The temp has gone up noticeably. Can't be good for the instability factor. Humidity has gone up noticeably also.

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Posted by justin  
on April 29, 2005, 12:56 pm
Just because there is no sun doesn't mean that the storms will weaken at all! In fact, the slower this system is, the worse it could get. Our CAPE for tomm. is over 3000 with a very weak CAP probable. There will be some very severe weather tonight for much of AL north of B'ham. It is starting to look like we will have supercells this evening, then a massive squall line that could very well produce 60+mph wind gusts and higher. Since the low has shifted its track further south, this increases our chances of severe weather dramaticly for the evening and overnight hours. Hold on, it could get rough!!

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Posted by jamie  
on April 29, 2005, 1:05 pm
Justin, you are correct, I see how the Low is going and the models seem to be hinting at a possible outbreak of super cells... We'll need to wait and see what James says, but I bet this thinking is somewhat on their level as well...

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 1:06 pm
We're all gonna die, I am pretty sure.

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Posted by jamie  
on April 29, 2005, 1:07 pm
Pat your an idiot

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 1:09 pm
It ain't gonna do anything. Ya'll get so worked up when there is a "possiblity" of bad weather anywere near Birmingham.

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Posted by jamie  
on April 29, 2005, 1:17 pm
Pat why don't you stay off this blog and shut up... if you weren't so interested in the weather, then why you on here looking it up... your prob one of the people that send hate emails to James and folks when they are giving you info that could save your life... grow up man...

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 1:24 pm
Amen to Jamie ! This stuff is way to serious Pat. Peoples lives are at stake.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 1:27 pm
Absent from the model variables is the fact I foolishly washed my car today. Now I know we're in for it. <wink>

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Posted by Dat Pat  
on April 29, 2005, 1:43 pm
All the wind that was forecast for today hasn't happened. I bet the wind hasn't gotten over 15 here.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 1:49 pm
"Any fool can criticize, condemn, and complain - and most fools do. "
Dale Carnegie

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Posted by Dat Pat  
on April 29, 2005, 1:50 pm
Nobody is criticizing. I just pointed out that the forecast said it would be very windy today. It hasnt been very windy at all.

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Posted by pmott  
on April 29, 2005, 1:51 pm
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting Supercells capable of producing tornados to develop over northern Louisiana and Southern Arkansas. These will be the cells that will move through Mississippi and eventually Alabama Tonight.

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Posted by SkylerKimbrell  
on April 29, 2005, 1:54 pm
I got to go take a mess

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Posted by SkylerKimbrell  
on April 29, 2005, 1:59 pm
I am fishing in a Bass tournament at Yella Creek from 9:00-1:00 think it will be stormin around that time.

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Posted by S K  
on April 29, 2005, 2:30 pm
Is there a full moon tonight? These are some of gthe strangest postings I have ever seen on this sight!

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Posted by Kim  
on April 29, 2005, 2:39 pm
does anyone have a link to a site that tracks storms by cities and times like james does, that is free of cost?

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Posted by Clay  
on April 29, 2005, 2:39 pm
I agree S K.
I have never seen people worked up like this on a WEATHER blog! It's not a contraversial subject...is it? Maybe James should start a seperate blog for whiners, complainers, people who have to go to the bathroom, and people not interested in reading this blog for up to the minute weather information like it was originally intended to provide.

Just a thought...

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:44 pm
True...some of the most idiotic postings in a while have come in the past 24 hours.

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Posted by   www
on April 29, 2005, 2:44 pm
I will say the reason you are having all these people making fun of the weather forecasts is because since Feb there have been all kinds of risks, moderate and slight, and all kinds of people on here saying buckle down, and eyes to the shy in Tuscaloosa, etc and people over time, when nothing happens, tend to become numb to those forecasts. I agree with James that the whole severe thunderstorm warning parameters and severe weather risk levels need to be upgraded.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:47 pm
I just have to say .. I *think* this is going to be a bust.. that dosent mean I am going to let my guard down.. but We have maybe seen like 30 min of sunshine here today.. and frankly.. its kinda cool outside... that and the front is coming through tonight and not this afternoon.

I look for some kinda weakening..

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:52 pm
Hey I just saw James new update, and it looks like the storm is not as strong as it was. So mybe the thing will fall apart. And as for Dat Pat man don't say things like we are going to die that will freak some people out let's just wait and see what happends.

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Posted by   www
on April 29, 2005, 2:53 pm
There is nothing even on the radar south of Tenn and north Ark to weaken. Now the new web video update backs up what you are saying Scott. The NWS/SPC is really starting to get ridiculous with these busted forecasts. I see they have issues a tornado watch for N Miss and I am sure people will start getting excited and wanting to know when it will be here and eyes will be to the sky. But everyone needs to calm down and see if anything happens and stop getting excited of SPC risks.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:54 pm
Well.. I just watched Spanns afternoon video update and it looks like I'm kinda right..

I dont know were that poster above got the CAPE vaules in the 3000's//.. they arent getting over 500.. the dewpoints arent near the severe levels here..

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:57 pm
I know that Dat Pat was trolling.. but sometimes I feel like he does. Bad weather scares me.

.. and times like this (spring and fall) the dire warnings.. really make me feel like "Ok.. I'm gonna die!" LOL

I know that silly unwarrented.. but sometimes it feel like this. My mom says I feel this way because weather isnt something I cant control! LOL

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 2:57 pm
Now I am just confused. I have been reading the blog and updates all day. I still wandering should I stay at someone's house tonight. I live in a mobile homes. Any suggestions?

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Posted by   www
on April 29, 2005, 2:58 pm
The dewpoint is 59, the winds are half as strong as forecasted, the sun has been in most of the day. I believe it will rain and/or storm. But really juicy charged up air is to the west and south. The low is gonna be to the north slightly. So once the low gets above Huntsville we will be at the calmest part of the day here and in air that never really got juiced up. Of course if the low really wraps up tonight we will have straight line winds. I agree Scott, you were right.

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Posted by   www
on April 29, 2005, 3:00 pm
I have never lived in a mobile home but have a friend who does and I don't feel safe in there on a windy day much less a storm. A J i am NOT a professional in any sense but I would wait and see what happens. Looks like an after midnight thing if anything happens. Just an opinion off what I heard James say and what is looks like.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 3:02 pm
Yeah, I guess I will wait for the news at 10:00 and keep an eye on blog. After that I guess I can make my decision.

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Posted by  
on April 29, 2005, 3:05 pm
AJ.. thats just what I was thinking.. the 10 news will be a good indicator

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Posted by b  
on April 29, 2005, 3:35 pm
Just want to say, all you can do is wait and see. James and the weather crew predict what the weather is going to do, But guess who has the last say in in. I KNOW GOD is in Control! Am I worried? No. AM I scared of Storms? I know that God has given me enough sense to protect myself and get to shelter. So everyone needs to pay attention to the weather. Its like the saying " Watch and Pray".

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Posted by kevin lovell  
on April 29, 2005, 7:00 pm
hi jason
maybe you james and john won't be to busy tonight with the severe weather.


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