May is here, which means hurricane season is just around the corner. The season “officially” runs from June 1 through the November 30, but early systems have formed in May before. The core of the season is August, September, and early October, when sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin peak.
Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University, who likes to forecast tropical activity (and has been doing it for 22 years), expects 13 named tropical storms in 2005, of which seven become hurricanes. Of those seven, three are forecast to be intense hurricanes. He notes he might raise these numbers up a tad if he can be sure El Nino conditions will not develop. His probabilities of at least one major hurricane landfall look like this: The entire U.S. coastline: 73%; the U.S. east coast including the Florida peninsula: 53%; the Gulf coast from Brownsville, Texas to the Florida panhandle: 41%.
We received a note from the National Hurricane Center that they will not be changing the format of their track graphics this season. There was some concern that the public was focusing too much on the center line of the forecast tracks, and not looking at the “margin of error” fans coming from those center lines. Several options were discussed, based on input from the public and EMA officials there will be no change this year.
Names for tropical storms in 2005: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. Hurricane names repeat every six years; this was the exact list used in 1999 (no hurricanes were strong enough in 1999 for the name to be retired).
Dr. William Gray at Colorado State University, who likes to forecast tropical activity (and has been doing it for 22 years), expects 13 named tropical storms in 2005, of which seven become hurricanes. Of those seven, three are forecast to be intense hurricanes. He notes he might raise these numbers up a tad if he can be sure El Nino conditions will not develop. His probabilities of at least one major hurricane landfall look like this: The entire U.S. coastline: 73%; the U.S. east coast including the Florida peninsula: 53%; the Gulf coast from Brownsville, Texas to the Florida panhandle: 41%.
We received a note from the National Hurricane Center that they will not be changing the format of their track graphics this season. There was some concern that the public was focusing too much on the center line of the forecast tracks, and not looking at the “margin of error” fans coming from those center lines. Several options were discussed, based on input from the public and EMA officials there will be no change this year.
Names for tropical storms in 2005: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, Stan, Tammy, Vince, and Wilma. Hurricane names repeat every six years; this was the exact list used in 1999 (no hurricanes were strong enough in 1999 for the name to be retired).
on May 4, 2005, 6:12 am
Any chance, since Charley is retired, that Clyde will become the C storm to replace it? Then, we could have Bonnie and Clyde going at the same time. Just a thought, and a bad one at that...
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