The Monday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looks like we have about an 18 hour window for showers and storms between now and midday tomorrow. The best dynamic forcing will be well to the north, but the trailing end of the wave could set off a few showers and thunderstorms around here. Rainfall distribution won't be very even, and some spots could miss the showers completely. But, nice to see a little rain showing up now over west Alabama.
Don't forget we are nearly five inches below normal on rainfall for the year, so we will take anything we can get.
REST OF THE WEEK: We should be mostly dry and very warm beyond midday tomorrow. I note the NGM MOS is showing 89 for Birmingham for Wednesday. The GFS has 87, and the ETA has 83. I think the GFS and NGM are closer to being correct; I expect highs on Wednesday in the 85 to 89 degree range. Humidity values will be high, so welcome to some real summer-like weather. Same type deal for Thursday and Friday. Very warm, very humid. Guess you can't really rule out a few isolated showers during the peak of the heat during the latter half of the week, but most places stay dry.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The 12Z run of the GFS is a little slower, and it now looks like the best chance of showers and storms with the surface front will come Saturday night into Sunday. Upper air support looks a little better on this run, so hopefully someone will see some beneficial rain. And, there is a chance of cooler and less humid air trying to slip in here Monday of next week. I don't know if I really believe it yet, but at least we have a chance.
END OF THE MONTH: The GFS is trying to develop a long wave trough over the central U.S. in the May 23-27 time frame; this might suggest much better thunderstorm potental here, and some hope for one last cool-down before June arrives. We will be watching for trends...
Enjoyed speaking to the third graders at Minor Community School this afternoon; those guys were in a scary bus wreck last week on the way back from the Tennessee Aquarium in Chattanooga... that wreck was on I-59 in St. Clair county. Some of the kids still had neck braces on... they are real troopers and were a great audience. They will be on the KIDCAM today at 5:00!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Looks like we have about an 18 hour window for showers and storms between now and midday tomorrow. The best dynamic forcing will be well to the north, but the trailing end of the wave could set off a few showers and thunderstorms around here. Rainfall distribution won't be very even, and some spots could miss the showers completely. But, nice to see a little rain showing up now over west Alabama.
Don't forget we are nearly five inches below normal on rainfall for the year, so we will take anything we can get.
REST OF THE WEEK: We should be mostly dry and very warm beyond midday tomorrow. I note the NGM MOS is showing 89 for Birmingham for Wednesday. The GFS has 87, and the ETA has 83. I think the GFS and NGM are closer to being correct; I expect highs on Wednesday in the 85 to 89 degree range. Humidity values will be high, so welcome to some real summer-like weather. Same type deal for Thursday and Friday. Very warm, very humid. Guess you can't really rule out a few isolated showers during the peak of the heat during the latter half of the week, but most places stay dry.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: The 12Z run of the GFS is a little slower, and it now looks like the best chance of showers and storms with the surface front will come Saturday night into Sunday. Upper air support looks a little better on this run, so hopefully someone will see some beneficial rain. And, there is a chance of cooler and less humid air trying to slip in here Monday of next week. I don't know if I really believe it yet, but at least we have a chance.
END OF THE MONTH: The GFS is trying to develop a long wave trough over the central U.S. in the May 23-27 time frame; this might suggest much better thunderstorm potental here, and some hope for one last cool-down before June arrives. We will be watching for trends...
Enjoyed speaking to the third graders at Minor Community School this afternoon; those guys were in a scary bus wreck last week on the way back from the Tennessee Aquarium in Chattanooga... that wreck was on I-59 in St. Clair county. Some of the kids still had neck braces on... they are real troopers and were a great audience. They will be on the KIDCAM today at 5:00!
on May 9, 2005, 2:21 pm
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