The prospects of a beneficial rain event this weekend are looking smaller and smaller. There will be showers tomorrow night thanks to a passing cold front, but amounts of only a quarter inch are expected. The moisture will be rather limited, and the best upper dynamics will pass well to the north of Alabama. Much of next week looks dry, so our rain deficit for the year will only grow larger over the next seven days (right now we need about five and a half inches to get back to normal). Birmingham’s total rain for the month of May is a paltry 0.01”. In a “normal” May, we get 4.83” of rain here.
The recent dry spell combined with the increasing amount of sunshine means the soil moisture is being depleted, and that could be a big player in summer temperatures here in Alabama. When soil moisture is deep and plentiful, a pretty good bit of the sun’s energy is required to evaporate that moisture, and not as much solar energy is available to heat the ground, which in turns heats the low level air. On the other hand, when we have dry soil that can set the stage for some very hot summer weather. During heat waves when temperatures reach the triple digits here, the lack of soil moisture is one key ingredient.
Let me say clearly it is too early to call a excessively hot summer. Even with limited soil moisture, some upper air conditions can lead to cooler than normal weather here during the summer months. But, I sure would like to see a good, all-day type soaking for Alabama before we get into June, July, and August. Unfortunately, the computer models don’t offer much hope for such a set-up over the next couple of weeks. The other hope we have is for some kind of early season tropical wave or depression to move in here and bring some decent amounts of rain. That can happen as early as June.
Heat waves and droughts are my least favorite kind of weather to deal with; I sure hope I don't have to forecast those kind of conditions this summer.
The recent dry spell combined with the increasing amount of sunshine means the soil moisture is being depleted, and that could be a big player in summer temperatures here in Alabama. When soil moisture is deep and plentiful, a pretty good bit of the sun’s energy is required to evaporate that moisture, and not as much solar energy is available to heat the ground, which in turns heats the low level air. On the other hand, when we have dry soil that can set the stage for some very hot summer weather. During heat waves when temperatures reach the triple digits here, the lack of soil moisture is one key ingredient.
Let me say clearly it is too early to call a excessively hot summer. Even with limited soil moisture, some upper air conditions can lead to cooler than normal weather here during the summer months. But, I sure would like to see a good, all-day type soaking for Alabama before we get into June, July, and August. Unfortunately, the computer models don’t offer much hope for such a set-up over the next couple of weeks. The other hope we have is for some kind of early season tropical wave or depression to move in here and bring some decent amounts of rain. That can happen as early as June.
Heat waves and droughts are my least favorite kind of weather to deal with; I sure hope I don't have to forecast those kind of conditions this summer.