Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific began on May 15, and the first named storm of the year, Adrian, is already churning toward Central America. Normally, tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific Basin find a way to curve northwest into the open waters of the Central Pacific; however, Adrian has a different path in mind! The National Hurricane Center has plotted Adrian's forecast track across the Central American nation of Honduras, and then the storm is progged to move into the Caribbean by Friday evening.
Adrian could end up being the first Tropical Depression of the season in the Atlantic Basin if he can hold together in a rather hostile environment. The reason the environment is "hostile" is because the subtropical jet (southern branch of the jet stream) is still moving along at a good clip in the lower latitudes. That's also the reason that Adrian will not be able to recurve into the Pacific! Westerly winds aloft are just too strong for anything significant right now, but the water is very warm down there, so we will keep an eye on it. It should not impact our weather at all, but it's interesting to watch early-season tropical weather!
By the way, if Adrian does remain an organized tropical cyclone when it crosses Central America into the Caribbean, the name will not change to Arlene, which is the first name on the list for the 2005 Atlantic Season.
Adrian could end up being the first Tropical Depression of the season in the Atlantic Basin if he can hold together in a rather hostile environment. The reason the environment is "hostile" is because the subtropical jet (southern branch of the jet stream) is still moving along at a good clip in the lower latitudes. That's also the reason that Adrian will not be able to recurve into the Pacific! Westerly winds aloft are just too strong for anything significant right now, but the water is very warm down there, so we will keep an eye on it. It should not impact our weather at all, but it's interesting to watch early-season tropical weather!
By the way, if Adrian does remain an organized tropical cyclone when it crosses Central America into the Caribbean, the name will not change to Arlene, which is the first name on the list for the 2005 Atlantic Season.