The Wednesday afternoon web update is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There must be a bunch of high school graduation ceremonies tomorrow night outdoors; I have a ton of e-mail messages from folks wanting to know about rain chances.
There is no doubt we could very well have a number of showers and storms around here tomorrow night, so you will need to have a back-up plan in place if the graduation will be outdoors at a stadium. Some thunder and lightning could be involved as well.
I think most of the day tomorrow will be dry, but a few scattered showers or storms could show up late in the day. The best chance of rain and storms will come after 7:00 p.m.
Friday looks wet as well as an upper air weather disturbance moves southward from Minneapolis to Memphis. The latest NAM output is much drier, with only 0.28" of rain for Birmingham. However, the GFS shows 1.44". The NCEP QPF guidance shows around one inch, which is probably close to being correct. Of course, rain distribution won't very even with convection involved.
THE WEEKEND: Showers should thin out greatly on Saturday as the upper system moves to the Mississippi coast and weakens. Looks like most of the showers on Saturday will be south and east of Birmingham. Sunday should be a nice day with ample sunshine and temperatures peaking in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Forecast for next week is a little muddy due to model differences. Looks like a cold front Monday slips in here with a chance of showers, followed by dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, another front stalls out near the Tennessee border with a chance of rain on Thursday and Friday. Not sure about that at all... the front on Thursday might have enough push to get into the northern Gulf with cooler and drier air by Friday. We will need to get closer on this to be more specific.
ADRIAN: Looks like this might be a minimal hurricane by the time it moves into Central America tomorrow. Life threatening flooding and mudslides are a very real theat... the mountains should tear up the circulation as it moves over land. Should the system survive and become a tropical storm again in the Caribbean as it moves northeast, it would keep the name Adrian. This will not affect the Gulf coast one way or another.
BEACH WEATHER: At first glance for the coming weekend, the weather along the coast will be warm and humid, with intervals of sunshine and scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will peak in the low 80s on the immediate coast.
Don't forget to check out "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches" before you leave:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=811
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
There must be a bunch of high school graduation ceremonies tomorrow night outdoors; I have a ton of e-mail messages from folks wanting to know about rain chances.
There is no doubt we could very well have a number of showers and storms around here tomorrow night, so you will need to have a back-up plan in place if the graduation will be outdoors at a stadium. Some thunder and lightning could be involved as well.
I think most of the day tomorrow will be dry, but a few scattered showers or storms could show up late in the day. The best chance of rain and storms will come after 7:00 p.m.
Friday looks wet as well as an upper air weather disturbance moves southward from Minneapolis to Memphis. The latest NAM output is much drier, with only 0.28" of rain for Birmingham. However, the GFS shows 1.44". The NCEP QPF guidance shows around one inch, which is probably close to being correct. Of course, rain distribution won't very even with convection involved.
THE WEEKEND: Showers should thin out greatly on Saturday as the upper system moves to the Mississippi coast and weakens. Looks like most of the showers on Saturday will be south and east of Birmingham. Sunday should be a nice day with ample sunshine and temperatures peaking in the low 80s.
NEXT WEEK: Forecast for next week is a little muddy due to model differences. Looks like a cold front Monday slips in here with a chance of showers, followed by dry weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. Then, another front stalls out near the Tennessee border with a chance of rain on Thursday and Friday. Not sure about that at all... the front on Thursday might have enough push to get into the northern Gulf with cooler and drier air by Friday. We will need to get closer on this to be more specific.
ADRIAN: Looks like this might be a minimal hurricane by the time it moves into Central America tomorrow. Life threatening flooding and mudslides are a very real theat... the mountains should tear up the circulation as it moves over land. Should the system survive and become a tropical storm again in the Caribbean as it moves northeast, it would keep the name Adrian. This will not affect the Gulf coast one way or another.
BEACH WEATHER: At first glance for the coming weekend, the weather along the coast will be warm and humid, with intervals of sunshine and scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will peak in the low 80s on the immediate coast.
Don't forget to check out "Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches" before you leave:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/wxtalk.php?id=811