The Thursday afternoon web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots of high school graduations tonight outdoors... better keep an eye on the radar as showers and storms will be increasing a good bit from now through the night. I really don't expect much in the way of severe storms, but the ones out there now are really putting down lots of lightning.
Not much change in our short term thinking; occasional showers and storms tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall should average one inch (NAM extraction shows 0.85" here), maybe a little more in some spots. SPC has most of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, but it certainly is not a classic setup.
Here are some severe weather parameters for tomorrow from the NAM (valid 7:00 p.m. local time):
Surface Based CAPE 1344
Lifted Index -3.7
Total totals: 48
2M AGL Dewpoint: 71
0 to 3 km Helicity 350
SWEAT Index 255
850 mb Wind: 29 knots
The wind fields and instability are not very impressive, but the helicity number does get your attention.
Lots of schools have outdoor end of the year events tomorrow... we won't have rain all day, but a shower or storm will be possible at almost any time, so plan accordingly. And, as you can see from the parameters, thunder and lightning is likely at times.
WEEKEND: We have removed all mention of rain for Saturday. The weekend should feature ample sunshine with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low 80s, exactly normal for this time of the year.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS puts a fast moving surface front through here Monday morning, which might squeeze out a shower or two. Then, cooler and drier air moves into the state, which should provide some very nice weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Then, a surface front approaches from the north, and a shower will be possible by late Thursday, with rain or storms more likely on Friday. The GFS (the 12Z run) is more aggressive now on rain potential for the Memorial Day weekend, with a stalled front, a southwest flow aloft, and copious amounts of moisture. We will nail down the holiday weekend forecast early next week; too much model inconsistency for now.
ADRIAN: This odd early season Eastern Pacific hurricane (winds now at 75 mph) will move into Central America this evening. What is left of the system will move across the Caribbean, toward Cuba and the Bahamas. I doubt if Adrian can survive the mountains of Central America, but it will be very interesting to watch over the next few days. This system will bring the potential for life threatening mudslides and flooding to countries like El Salvador and Honduras.
Thanks to my pals at the Ashley Manor retirement commmunity in Moody... I enjoyed the great lunch today and the hospitality!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Lots of high school graduations tonight outdoors... better keep an eye on the radar as showers and storms will be increasing a good bit from now through the night. I really don't expect much in the way of severe storms, but the ones out there now are really putting down lots of lightning.
Not much change in our short term thinking; occasional showers and storms tonight and tomorrow. Rainfall should average one inch (NAM extraction shows 0.85" here), maybe a little more in some spots. SPC has most of Alabama in a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, but it certainly is not a classic setup.
Here are some severe weather parameters for tomorrow from the NAM (valid 7:00 p.m. local time):
Surface Based CAPE 1344
Lifted Index -3.7
Total totals: 48
2M AGL Dewpoint: 71
0 to 3 km Helicity 350
SWEAT Index 255
850 mb Wind: 29 knots
The wind fields and instability are not very impressive, but the helicity number does get your attention.
Lots of schools have outdoor end of the year events tomorrow... we won't have rain all day, but a shower or storm will be possible at almost any time, so plan accordingly. And, as you can see from the parameters, thunder and lightning is likely at times.
WEEKEND: We have removed all mention of rain for Saturday. The weekend should feature ample sunshine with afternoon temperatures peaking in the low 80s, exactly normal for this time of the year.
NEXT WEEK: The GFS puts a fast moving surface front through here Monday morning, which might squeeze out a shower or two. Then, cooler and drier air moves into the state, which should provide some very nice weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Then, a surface front approaches from the north, and a shower will be possible by late Thursday, with rain or storms more likely on Friday. The GFS (the 12Z run) is more aggressive now on rain potential for the Memorial Day weekend, with a stalled front, a southwest flow aloft, and copious amounts of moisture. We will nail down the holiday weekend forecast early next week; too much model inconsistency for now.
ADRIAN: This odd early season Eastern Pacific hurricane (winds now at 75 mph) will move into Central America this evening. What is left of the system will move across the Caribbean, toward Cuba and the Bahamas. I doubt if Adrian can survive the mountains of Central America, but it will be very interesting to watch over the next few days. This system will bring the potential for life threatening mudslides and flooding to countries like El Salvador and Honduras.
Thanks to my pals at the Ashley Manor retirement commmunity in Moody... I enjoyed the great lunch today and the hospitality!
on May 19, 2005, 2:47 pm
Are you expecting any isolated tornadoes? Sorry I asked that dumb question. It doesn't look like it from the sounds of it, but I just wanna be sure.
Thanks!
-Danielle
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