The Monday morning web video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
After a review of model data this morning; prospects for a big rain event here look pretty small today. In fact, many places probably will see no rain at all. Model extraction reveals 0.03" here from the NAM, and 0.29" from the GFS.
Players on the map this morning include a MCS (mesoscale comvective complex) over Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma, and a cold front over Tennessee. The MCS will weaken and fall apart as it moves to the southeast over the next few hours. Then, scattered storms should form along the front later today, and I sure get the idea the best chance of those will be along and south of I-20 this afternoon as drier air works into north Alabama.
I really don't expect any major severe weather problems either... SPC has dropped the slight risk for south Alabama. The air will be very unstable, but all other parameters are marginal. Here are some afternoon severe weather parameters for Birmingham from the NAM:
Surface based CAPE 2745
0 to 3 km Helicity 81
SWEAT Index 249
850 Wind Speed: 19 knots
Cooler and drier air roll in here tonight, and humidity values will be much lower tomorrow. We should drop into the 50 to 55 degree range by Wednesday morning; pretty refreshing for late May in Alabama.
DOWN THE ROAD: See no reason to mention rain through Friday as a dry airmass stays in place. We will have to keep an eye on any potential MCS action that might move in here on the northwest flow aloft, but for now I just don't see evidence of that.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: We will keep rain out of the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, but an impulse could bring showers and storms back in here one week from today, on Memorial Day.
Shelby County is being proclaimed a "Storm Ready" county: I am headed down to the ceremony this morning in Pelham. Then, the last lunch with my son's class at school for the year (his last day of school is tomorrow, which will only be a half day), and then back in the office for the afternoon update later today!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
After a review of model data this morning; prospects for a big rain event here look pretty small today. In fact, many places probably will see no rain at all. Model extraction reveals 0.03" here from the NAM, and 0.29" from the GFS.
Players on the map this morning include a MCS (mesoscale comvective complex) over Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma, and a cold front over Tennessee. The MCS will weaken and fall apart as it moves to the southeast over the next few hours. Then, scattered storms should form along the front later today, and I sure get the idea the best chance of those will be along and south of I-20 this afternoon as drier air works into north Alabama.
I really don't expect any major severe weather problems either... SPC has dropped the slight risk for south Alabama. The air will be very unstable, but all other parameters are marginal. Here are some afternoon severe weather parameters for Birmingham from the NAM:
Surface based CAPE 2745
0 to 3 km Helicity 81
SWEAT Index 249
850 Wind Speed: 19 knots
Cooler and drier air roll in here tonight, and humidity values will be much lower tomorrow. We should drop into the 50 to 55 degree range by Wednesday morning; pretty refreshing for late May in Alabama.
DOWN THE ROAD: See no reason to mention rain through Friday as a dry airmass stays in place. We will have to keep an eye on any potential MCS action that might move in here on the northwest flow aloft, but for now I just don't see evidence of that.
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: We will keep rain out of the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, but an impulse could bring showers and storms back in here one week from today, on Memorial Day.
Shelby County is being proclaimed a "Storm Ready" county: I am headed down to the ceremony this morning in Pelham. Then, the last lunch with my son's class at school for the year (his last day of school is tomorrow, which will only be a half day), and then back in the office for the afternoon update later today!