A Wet Memorial Day

The Friday morning web video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Today will feature dry and warm weather for Alabama with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 80s.

We will continue to mention the risk of a shower or two tomorrow, but at this point I am not convinced we will see very much rain tomorrow or Sunday. A surface front will move southward tomorrow, triggering a few scattered showers, and then the models are in pretty good agreement the front will be close to U.S. 80 by tomorrow night, which would put much of north and central Alabama in dry air for Sunday. If this trend continues on the 12Z runs, we can almost eliminate the risk of showers on Sunday, with all of them limited to south Alabama.

But, Monday still looks wet as a surface low spins up near Shreveport and the front moves northward as a warm front. Some beneficial rain seems likely, and maybe even a strong storm or two. Looks like the rain could linger into at least a part of the day Tuesday before dry air returns Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Then, the GFS shows a system for Thursday and Friday of next week (June 2-3) that looks more like March; a deep surface low near Memphis with decent upper support. That would suggest a severe weather threat, but the GFS is probably being too aggressive. One way or another, it does look like wet weather will return for the latter half of the week.

Between the two systems next week, parts of Alabama could easily see over two inches of rain, and possibly more. I know this is not very convienent, but it will greatly help to reduce the rain deficit for the year and help improve the soil moisture.

Hurricane season begins next Wednesday... so we will begin scanning the Atlantic basin on a regular basis!