4 pm update...
At 3:45 p.m., my fantasy storm chase would have taken me into Emporia, KS. A strong storm has developed rapidly in McPherson County KS, about 70 miles west of Emporia. This storm is already Tornado warned. It will move NE toward Salina and Abilene KS.
New development is occurring at 3:54 p.m. to the SW of Emporia. Those might become my target cells in my fantasy chase...
These southern storms will have a better chance of being low precipitation supercells, I think, making any tornadoes more visible. Over East Central Kansas, the level of free convection is 800-1000 meters, which is excellent for tornado development. The LFC is the level at which an updraft can rise unimpeded.
The latest ob from Emporia is 83/71 with a slightly backed SSE wind. This also indicates a little more low level shear. Still think more southerly storms will have good chance of producing tornadoes.
The initial storms north of Topeka is very organized, but does not have a Tornado Warning yet. All of the storms along the line are beginning to show signs of rotation.
Watching the weather from my armchair in Birmingham...
At 3:45 p.m., my fantasy storm chase would have taken me into Emporia, KS. A strong storm has developed rapidly in McPherson County KS, about 70 miles west of Emporia. This storm is already Tornado warned. It will move NE toward Salina and Abilene KS.
New development is occurring at 3:54 p.m. to the SW of Emporia. Those might become my target cells in my fantasy chase...
These southern storms will have a better chance of being low precipitation supercells, I think, making any tornadoes more visible. Over East Central Kansas, the level of free convection is 800-1000 meters, which is excellent for tornado development. The LFC is the level at which an updraft can rise unimpeded.
The latest ob from Emporia is 83/71 with a slightly backed SSE wind. This also indicates a little more low level shear. Still think more southerly storms will have good chance of producing tornadoes.
The initial storms north of Topeka is very organized, but does not have a Tornado Warning yet. All of the storms along the line are beginning to show signs of rotation.
Watching the weather from my armchair in Birmingham...