The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Not much change in our weather today and tomorrow; temperatures aloft a little colder than normal, lots of low level moisture (although dewpoints are just a tad lower this morning), and the possibility of an outflow boundary from storms late last night to the west of us. We will maintain the chance of scattered to numerous showers and storms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Still some hint the showers could thin out a bit by the end of the week. Then, the weather over the weekend all depends on...
TROPICAL ISSUES: The GFS develops a tropical system over the western tip of Cuba by Thursday. That, in itself, is no real big deal since the GFS wants to develop tropical systems all the time that never happen. BUT, in this case the UKMET, the Canadian, NAM, and GFDL all want to agree with the GFS, which gives the solution some credibility.
The GFS takes the tropical system northward into the Gulf, and puts it into the Mississippi coast on Saturday. But, if you have a beach trip planned don't get too upset, because the other models are all over the road. The GFDL takes the system to Mexico and the Canadian puts in into the Tampa Bay area. Take your pick.
Satellite images do show a very unsettled Caribbean this morning, so the concept of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system is certainly not far fetched. There just isn't much confidence in trying to tell you where it goes at this point. This will be pretty much our focus here for the rest of the week.
Keep in mind early season systems rarely develop into major hurricanes, but they can be big time rain producers. If the GFS happens to be correct, some major changes will be needed in our weekend forecast, needless to say!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Not much change in our weather today and tomorrow; temperatures aloft a little colder than normal, lots of low level moisture (although dewpoints are just a tad lower this morning), and the possibility of an outflow boundary from storms late last night to the west of us. We will maintain the chance of scattered to numerous showers and storms, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours.
Still some hint the showers could thin out a bit by the end of the week. Then, the weather over the weekend all depends on...
TROPICAL ISSUES: The GFS develops a tropical system over the western tip of Cuba by Thursday. That, in itself, is no real big deal since the GFS wants to develop tropical systems all the time that never happen. BUT, in this case the UKMET, the Canadian, NAM, and GFDL all want to agree with the GFS, which gives the solution some credibility.
The GFS takes the tropical system northward into the Gulf, and puts it into the Mississippi coast on Saturday. But, if you have a beach trip planned don't get too upset, because the other models are all over the road. The GFDL takes the system to Mexico and the Canadian puts in into the Tampa Bay area. Take your pick.
Satellite images do show a very unsettled Caribbean this morning, so the concept of a Gulf of Mexico tropical system is certainly not far fetched. There just isn't much confidence in trying to tell you where it goes at this point. This will be pretty much our focus here for the rest of the week.
Keep in mind early season systems rarely develop into major hurricanes, but they can be big time rain producers. If the GFS happens to be correct, some major changes will be needed in our weekend forecast, needless to say!