The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about J.B. Elliott making that post here at 3:09 a.m.!
Lets take it all one event at a time:
TD ONE: I still expect TD 1 to become tropical storm Arlene at some point today or tonight. The good news is that is will be fighting strong winds aloft as it approaches the coast, which should keep this from becoming a hurricane. The official NHC track still takes the system to Mobile Bay Saturday night, and most models are in decent agreement.
Winds at jet stream level (200 mb) will be in the 20 to 45 knot range, which is certainly not favorable for any strengthening. And, the major trough to the west of Alabama this weekend should keep the system moving along, which hopefully will prevent major flooding problems. Latest QPF guidance from HPC shows 5 to 7 inches near the coast.
Still looks like our wettest day from the tropical system will be Sunday, and we will highlight a good chance of rain at times. The amount of rain all depends on the structure and position of the tropical system; we will fine tune the forecast as we go along.
But again, the good news is that this thing looks more and more like a big nuisance instead of anything really dangerous. Watch the video for more details.
PLAINS TORNADO POTENTIAL: Still looks very, very good for a major tornado outbreak across the southern plains tomorrow and Saturday. Every tornado chaser in the free world will probably converge on west Oklahoma and west Kansas. The greatest danger they face might be running into each other. SPC has a moderate risk for tomorrow over this region, and it might require a high risk upgrade tomorrow. Driving this is a very deep upper trough, the same one that should prevent our tropical system from getting out of hand.
NEXT WEEK'S TROPICAL SYSTEM: GFS still paints a tropical low southeast of Cuba toward the middle of next week, but the system moves notheast into the open Atlantic, not impacting the U.S. at all.
PATTERN CHANGE?: The GFS still shows a very high amplitude pattern developing in the June 19-24 time frame, with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. This, if correct, could actually bring us drier contintental air with lower humidity and cooler nights. Wouldn't that be nice? But, I will believe it when I see it. The GFS sure is being consistent with this feature, however.
Headed in to the office early today for a series of meetings... I will have the afternoon video posted by 3:30, and J.B. will be staffing the blog through the day!
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
How about J.B. Elliott making that post here at 3:09 a.m.!
Lets take it all one event at a time:
TD ONE: I still expect TD 1 to become tropical storm Arlene at some point today or tonight. The good news is that is will be fighting strong winds aloft as it approaches the coast, which should keep this from becoming a hurricane. The official NHC track still takes the system to Mobile Bay Saturday night, and most models are in decent agreement.
Winds at jet stream level (200 mb) will be in the 20 to 45 knot range, which is certainly not favorable for any strengthening. And, the major trough to the west of Alabama this weekend should keep the system moving along, which hopefully will prevent major flooding problems. Latest QPF guidance from HPC shows 5 to 7 inches near the coast.
Still looks like our wettest day from the tropical system will be Sunday, and we will highlight a good chance of rain at times. The amount of rain all depends on the structure and position of the tropical system; we will fine tune the forecast as we go along.
But again, the good news is that this thing looks more and more like a big nuisance instead of anything really dangerous. Watch the video for more details.
PLAINS TORNADO POTENTIAL: Still looks very, very good for a major tornado outbreak across the southern plains tomorrow and Saturday. Every tornado chaser in the free world will probably converge on west Oklahoma and west Kansas. The greatest danger they face might be running into each other. SPC has a moderate risk for tomorrow over this region, and it might require a high risk upgrade tomorrow. Driving this is a very deep upper trough, the same one that should prevent our tropical system from getting out of hand.
NEXT WEEK'S TROPICAL SYSTEM: GFS still paints a tropical low southeast of Cuba toward the middle of next week, but the system moves notheast into the open Atlantic, not impacting the U.S. at all.
PATTERN CHANGE?: The GFS still shows a very high amplitude pattern developing in the June 19-24 time frame, with a long wave trough over the eastern U.S. This, if correct, could actually bring us drier contintental air with lower humidity and cooler nights. Wouldn't that be nice? But, I will believe it when I see it. The GFS sure is being consistent with this feature, however.
Headed in to the office early today for a series of meetings... I will have the afternoon video posted by 3:30, and J.B. will be staffing the blog through the day!