The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
ARLENE: Models are shifting a little to the east, with the spread now from Biloxi to Apalachicola. Models are also a little faster; the NAM brings the system into Mobile Bay around midnight tomorrow night, while the GFS has Arlene arriving midday Saturday. Seems like landfall will come during the day Saturday.
Winds aloft will be rather robust over Arlene in the northern Gulf, so we still don't expect it to strengthen into a hurricane. The main problem will be rain; the latest QPF graphic from HPC shows a strip of six inches of rain over parts of Alabama, in the general area from Fort Walton Beach to Muscle Shoals. Trying to nail down the axis of the heaviest rain is very hard to do at this stage of the game, but it is safe to say parts of Alabama could get soaked this weekend. Looks like our best chance of heavy rain here will come Saturday night and Sunday. We will continue to hit rain harder in our weekend forecast.
If the eastward shift continues, it could very well be the greatest rain will come over the southeast half of the state. We should also mention in disorganized tropical storms during the day, the heaviest rain can be well away from the center, with the storms often gathering closer to the center at night. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out... watch the video for more details.
The next NHC advisory package will be issued within the hour.
PLAINS TORNADOES: Looks like a big tornado event over the next three days over the plains states; maybe a high risk needed out there tomorrow for parts of west Oklahoma and west Kansas.
DRIER AIR; COOLER NIGHTS? The GFS continues to advertise a very high amplitude pattern over the U.S. in the 7 to 12 day time frame... we might get into drier air toward the middle of end of next week. If that is correct, the humidity will be lower and nights cooler for a few days. Doesn't that sound nice.
BRET? The GFS still develops a tropical system next week over the southeast Bahamas, and moves it northeast through the open Atlantic. Lets finish with Arlene and then we will take a closer look at that one, but it looks like it will not be a problem for the U.S. mainland.
Running behind the power curve today; J.B.'s afternoon forecast package just arrived and I am about to post it on the seven day discussion and forecast page. Peering at the radar seems like storms are becoming more numerous in the very warm and humid air over Alabama this afternoon...
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
ARLENE: Models are shifting a little to the east, with the spread now from Biloxi to Apalachicola. Models are also a little faster; the NAM brings the system into Mobile Bay around midnight tomorrow night, while the GFS has Arlene arriving midday Saturday. Seems like landfall will come during the day Saturday.
Winds aloft will be rather robust over Arlene in the northern Gulf, so we still don't expect it to strengthen into a hurricane. The main problem will be rain; the latest QPF graphic from HPC shows a strip of six inches of rain over parts of Alabama, in the general area from Fort Walton Beach to Muscle Shoals. Trying to nail down the axis of the heaviest rain is very hard to do at this stage of the game, but it is safe to say parts of Alabama could get soaked this weekend. Looks like our best chance of heavy rain here will come Saturday night and Sunday. We will continue to hit rain harder in our weekend forecast.
If the eastward shift continues, it could very well be the greatest rain will come over the southeast half of the state. We should also mention in disorganized tropical storms during the day, the heaviest rain can be well away from the center, with the storms often gathering closer to the center at night. Will be very interesting to see how this plays out... watch the video for more details.
The next NHC advisory package will be issued within the hour.
PLAINS TORNADOES: Looks like a big tornado event over the next three days over the plains states; maybe a high risk needed out there tomorrow for parts of west Oklahoma and west Kansas.
DRIER AIR; COOLER NIGHTS? The GFS continues to advertise a very high amplitude pattern over the U.S. in the 7 to 12 day time frame... we might get into drier air toward the middle of end of next week. If that is correct, the humidity will be lower and nights cooler for a few days. Doesn't that sound nice.
BRET? The GFS still develops a tropical system next week over the southeast Bahamas, and moves it northeast through the open Atlantic. Lets finish with Arlene and then we will take a closer look at that one, but it looks like it will not be a problem for the U.S. mainland.
Running behind the power curve today; J.B.'s afternoon forecast package just arrived and I am about to post it on the seven day discussion and forecast page. Peering at the radar seems like storms are becoming more numerous in the very warm and humid air over Alabama this afternoon...
on June 9, 2005, 3:33 pm
Reply to this comment