A very interesting forecast ahead for the weekend thanks to tropical storm Arlene. Upper air winds really don’t favor any serious strengthening, so it will most likely be a tropical storm at landfall tomorrow somewhere near Mobile Bay, or the western tip of the Florida panhandle. We have to stress with systems like this the most significant weather is often well removed from the circulation center, so you really don’t want to focus too much on the exact center line of the forecast track. When I covered tropical storm Bonnie in Panama City last year, we did have a little rain, but much of the day of landfall turned out to be very nice with a decent amount of sunshine. And, Panama City was relatively close to the landfall point.
We are getting the idea the greatest potential for really heavy rain and flooding will be over the southeast part of Alabama, with places like Dothan, Geneva, Ozark, and Enterprise possibly getting 3 to 6 inches of rain. Amounts should be lighter up this way, but still the rain could be heavy at times Saturday night and into Sunday morning. We will have a much better handle on projected rain amounts tonight as the system will be in the open water of the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is that a strong upper trough over the central U.S. should keep Arlene moving along at a pretty good pace. When tropical systems like this become stalled due to light steering currents, very serious flash flooding is usually the result.
Another positive is that the rain expected over the weekend should give most of Alabama a surplus of rainfall for the year. Just two weeks ago we had a five and a half inch deficit in Birmingham. That deficit is now down to under one inch, and I fully expect rain here to well exceed one inch over the next three days.
We are getting the idea the greatest potential for really heavy rain and flooding will be over the southeast part of Alabama, with places like Dothan, Geneva, Ozark, and Enterprise possibly getting 3 to 6 inches of rain. Amounts should be lighter up this way, but still the rain could be heavy at times Saturday night and into Sunday morning. We will have a much better handle on projected rain amounts tonight as the system will be in the open water of the Gulf of Mexico. The good news is that a strong upper trough over the central U.S. should keep Arlene moving along at a pretty good pace. When tropical systems like this become stalled due to light steering currents, very serious flash flooding is usually the result.
Another positive is that the rain expected over the weekend should give most of Alabama a surplus of rainfall for the year. Just two weeks ago we had a five and a half inch deficit in Birmingham. That deficit is now down to under one inch, and I fully expect rain here to well exceed one inch over the next three days.