Back on this date in 1998, the thirteenth named storm of the Atlantic Hurricane season was christened Mitch. Two days later, Mitch became a hurricane south of Jamaica and began to intensify rapidly. In just twenty four hours, the central pressure of the storm dropped some 52 millibars, down to 924 millibars.

Just two days later, on the 26th, Mitch tied 1969s Hurricane Camille as the fourth strongest Atlantic hurricane on record with a central pressure of 905 millibars. Since 1998, three hurricanes have slipped ahead of Mitch in the record book: Wilma, Rita and Katrina.

On the 27th, Mitch turned southward and began battering Honduras with devastating rains. As much as 75 inches of rain fell across parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Over 11,000 people would die. Another 1,000 were never found. This ranks Mitch as the second deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record behind the Great Hurricane of 1780.

Caught in the maelstrom of the hurricane, the crew of the Windjammer sailing ship Fantome was struggling to keep their vessel afloat. Trying to escape the hurricane, the crew steered the beautiful ship southward, but the monster storm chased them.

The four-masted sailboat was never found, the only trace being two life rafts and eight life vests.

On the evening of October 21, 1743, Benjamin Franklin was waiting with great anticipation to view a lunar eclipse. Franklin was disappointed when clouds obscured the sky and a terrible nor’easter set it, blocking his view of the eclipse.

The storm wreaked havoc all along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. As Franklin read accounts of the storm from newspapers over the next few weeks, he was surprised to find that observers in Boston had been able to view the eclipse before the storm set in. He learned in a letter from his brother in Boston that the storm had arrived there four hours after the eclipse. How could that be?

Franklin observed that winds at his location were from the northeast. He assumed that the storm had come from the direction of Boston since his winds were blowing from the direction of Boston. But the storm had arrived in Boston later than in Philadelphia. Franklin sought other observations from up and down the coast. Franklin later observed to his friend Jared Eliot that the winds had blown from northeast to southwest, but that the storm had traveled from southwest to northeast.

Franklin had come to the revolutionary discovery that the wind in storm systems rotate in a counter clockwise direction around a center that moves across the earth’s surface. It was a brilliant deduction considering he had no satellite to show him the big picture!

Let me invite you to plan on watching our next prime time weather special on ABC 33/40 called “Ten Years of Alabama Weather”. This one hour show airs on Sunday evening October 29 from 6:00 until 7:00, and the editor/producer is Bill Castle, so you know it will be good. We will look back at the 10 year history of the ABC 33/40 Weather operation, and all of the incredible events that have happened on our watch here.

I will never forget the first time we went into long form tornado coverage; it was on January 27, 1997, only four months after the station signed on the air in 1996. Even with limited resources (the station was not really completed until 199, we blew out all programming that afternoon for a tornado event in West Alabama. An F2 tornado moved through the eastern part of Tuscaloosa killing one person and injuring several others. Brian Wallace of our photography staff captured the tornado on tape, and we did much of the 10:00 news that night from Five Points East where heavy damage was concentrated.
You will see highlights of many other Alabama weather events, including the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado, the wild hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005, and a number of flooding and winter storm situations. This has been the most active weather during any 10 year stretch of my 28 year old career in TV weather; I am very thankful for the opportunity to cover all of these events on ABC 33/40, where they have given me the freedom to go way outside the box and get very aggressive on weather coverage. I didn't have this freedom in the other places where I have worked.

We have changed the way TV weather is done here in Birmingham, and we are far from done. There is a sea of change in the TV industry as we make the change from “TV station” to digital content provider over a wide variety of platforms. I think our next ten years will be even better, and I am just glad to be along for the ride!

Our weekly 30 minute podcast called WeatherBrains is now available on the web, and on iTunes:

http://www.weatherbrains.com

In this week's episode:

-Taking an early peek at next month's weather: James Spann shares his thoughts on Alabama's prospects for an active November;

-A WeatherBrains Extra: Dust in The Wind... University of Wisconsin researcher Amato Evan and his team have found compelling evidence of a possible relationship between dust in Africa and Atlantic tropical storms;

-The Atlantic 2006 hurricane season: Is it over?

-Spann spins those hot stacks of wax: James talks about his early years in radio and television broadcasting--would you believe he played vinyl discs called records on the radio, and that he drove to get the daily satellite pictures he showed on television?

Join James Spann, J. B. Elliott, Bill Murray and David Black!

A small earthquake was just reported over Northeast Alabama:

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==



Region: ALABAMA
Geographic coordinates: 34.620N, 85.510W
Magnitude: 2.2 Mcd
Depth: 8 km
Universal Time (UTC): 15 Oct 2006 18:49:34
Time near the Epicenter: 15 Oct 2006 13:49:34
Local time in your area: 15 Oct 2006 18:49:34

Location with respect to nearby cities:
8 km (5 miles) NE (51 degrees) of Mentone, AL
11 km (7 miles) ENE (58 degrees) of Valley Head, AL
13 km (8 miles) ENE (64 degrees) of Hammondville, AL
52 km (32 miles) SSW (205 degrees) of Chattanooga, TN
436 km (271 miles) W (268 degrees) of JAARS, NC

Here is a quick look at the Alabama weather situation this evening...

The airmass over North and Central Alabama is still very dry tonight.

Skies are now clear over a small wedge of Central Alabama with clouds overspreading most of the rest of the area.

Radars indicate that the first wave of rain extends from near Vicksburg, Mississippi to Hattiesburg to Mobile. The radar is clear now across Central and North Alabama. A few showers are over Tennessee.

The activity over Southwest Alabama is moving to the northeast. This precipitation will continue moving northeast overnight. It will take a little bit of time for this precipitation to moisten up the airmass. Showers may reach the Selma-Montgomery area shortly after midnight. The Tuscaloosa area around 4 a.m. and the Birmingham area around sunrise.

It is going to be a dramatic flip to wet during the morning hours, with the atmosphere becoming very moist as a strong southerly low level jet pumps in copious amounts of tropical moisture and a warm front over the Gulf of Mexico comes northward. Rain will become widespread and will contain occasional thunder as convection develops. Two to four inch amounts of rain look likely depending on the track of a surface low. Currently, the surface low is expected to pass near Memphis tomorrow. If the low passes closer to Alabama, rainfall could be over five inches.

As the situation unfolds, the National Weather Service may issue a flash flood watch, especially for areas west of I-65.

The rainfall is welcome, as long as it does not become excessive.

The threat of severe weather looks minimal, but we can't rule out a couple of severe storms tomorrow.

It will become windy by morning across the area a the pressure gradient increases between the surface low to the southwest and strong high pressure to the northeast of Alabama. High surf advisories are in effect along the coast of Baldwin and Mobile Counties in Alabama and Escambia... Santa Rosa and Okaloosa Counties in the Florida Panhandle. Winds are expected to increase to 20-30 mph overnight with gusts to 40 mph.

The data buoy 75 miles south of Dauphin Island is reporting sustained winds of 27 mph gusting to 35 mph at 6:50 p.m. CDT. The Shell Drilling Platform about 100 miles south of Houma, Louisiana was reporting a sustained wind of 31 mph. Wave heights offshore were running 7-10 feet.

The rain will be likely throughout the day and into the overnight hours. An upper level disturbance and cold front will push the area during the day on Tuesday, putting an end to the rain.

Get the latest on the Hawaii earthquake on our sister site:

http://www.weatherparty.com/

No map video discussion today as Brian Peters is out of town...

It is a beautiful morning across North and Central Alabama. Temperatures are in all this morning were about the same or a little cooler than yesterday, with widespread readings in the 30s and lower 40s. Some morning lows:
29 at DeSoto State Park
31 at Crossville
32 at Fort Payne
34 at Decatur, Meridianville and Cullman Airport
35 at Muscle Shoals
36 at Huntsville Airport 37 at Pinson
39 at Albertville Anniston
42 at Birmingham International Airport and Selma
43 at Calera

Our beautiful weather will continue today with lots of sun and seasonably mild readings. HIgh clouds are massing to the south and west, and those signal the change to come.

Those changes will come in the form of a wet weather system will affect the state during the next 48 hours. We can use the rain, as only 0.04 of an inch of rain has fallen so far in October. Indeed, it looks like we are in for a good soaking rain over the next 48 hours.

Our old frontal boundary is stretched across the Gulf of Mexico, poised to come back north as a warm front. As high pressure centered near the Alabama/Tennessee border this morning slides east, the Gulf of Mexico will open for business as a surface low develops and moves into Arkansas by Monday night. In addition, an upper level system over the southwestern United States will also head east. This will set the stage for some very nice rainfall amounts.

Phase I of the system will be widespread rain and thunderstorms along and ahead of the warm front. Some of that might reach southwestern sections of the area late tonight, but the main action should come during the day on Monday into Monday night. The bulls eye of heaviest rainfall amounts should be over Mississippi, where over four inches of rain is likely. But that bulls eye extends over into Alabama, and we will see a gradient of amounts ranging from 2-4 inches over West Alabama to an inch over eastern sections on Monday.

We will see an expanding warm sector to the south and west of the warm front as it retreats northward. To our west and south, there may be sufficient instability and wind shear to produce severe weather. This may extend into Southwest Alabama through Monday evening.

As the warm front lifts northward, we will find ourselves in the warm sector over North and Central Alabama, but the event will come at the time of day when there is no atmospheric heating. So, there could be a couple of strong to severe storms along the warm front as it moves north, and maybe a couple as the low lifts northward and the “cold” front moves our way.

I say “cold” front since this airmass will be of Pacific origins, and we actually will be in the lower 80s Wednesday. The front will end our rain chances by noon on Tuesday, and we might see a little sunshine late in the day, but the main clearing should wait until Tuesday night.

It now appears that the system will sweep quickly east, giving us a nice day on Wednesday, with warm sunshine and highs in the 80s. Another front will approach from the west of Thursday, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. This system will be supported by a bigger upper trough, and that means cooler air for Friday into the weekend. In fact, the weekend should be quite nice.

But for today, our perfect weather warning remains in effect, so get outdoors this afternoon and enjoy it.

Widespread readings in the 30s and 40s this morning led to some frost in colder locations.

Here is a rundown of morning lows:

30 at DeSoto State Park
34 at Fort Payne
35 at Anniston and Crossville
36 at the Cullman Airport (Vinemont)
37 at Meridianville
38 at Decatur, Montgomery and Tuscaloosa
39 at Huntsville and Muscle Shoals
41 at Calera and Albertville
42 at Birmingham and Selma
48 at Mobile

From our cadre of weather watchers:
Stephen and Dakota Frank report 34 this morning in Munford. Micahel Mills in Alabaster reports 37 with a little light frost on his truck. VIc Bell up at Black Creek in Etowah County reports a light freeze, with a reading of 31.1 degrees.

No video from Brian this morning as he is like Willie Nelson, on the road again.

Our fine weather will continue through the weekend, thanks to high pressure centered over the nation's midsection. The first signs of change will come tomorrow, as high clouds increase ahead of our next weather system. A warm front will move north late on Sunday into Monday. This will give us increasing chances of showers, and maybe a thunderstorm. We will be in a warm and fairly unstable airmass on Tuesday. As a low pressure system moves our way, we stand to receive some much needed rains. There is still a slight chance that we will deal with severe weather, but it doesn't look to be a significant problem. We will experience a nice day on Wednesday, but in a progressive, active pattern, rain will return on Thursday.

We are very near issuing a perfect weather warning for this afternoon, although it is just a bit cool for the official PWW criteria. In any case, get out and enjoy this spate of fine fall weather we are experiencing. Welcome to October in Alabama.

The International Hurricane Research Center released its list of the ten areas of our coastline that are the most vulnerable to a hurricane. The list includes:

1. New Orleans, Louisiana
2. Lake Okeechobee, Florida
3. Florida Keys
4. Coastal Mississippi
5. Miami/Fort Lauderdale, Florida
6. Galveston/Houston, Texas
7. Cape Hatteras, North Carolina
8. Eastern Long Island
9. Wilmington, North Carolina
10. Tampa/St. Petersburg, Florida

The list is based on hurricane climatology, levee vulnerability, population, evacuation routes, civil defense readiness, flooding potential and beach erosion potential.