The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
Wow... I see Jason Simspon posted the audio podcast at 3:45 a.m. Guess I shouldn't gripe about having to get up at 4:52 a.m... that is when my alarm clock goes off every morning. Of course, Jason doesn't have to work the TV night shift, however!
Hey, sleep or no sleep "life goes on" as J.B. says...
The ole "tropical plume" is the interesting feature this morning... you can clearly see that on satellite mages. The 300mb wind chart shows a wind max at jet stream level running from the Gulf up through the southeast U.S., with the deepest moisture over east and south Alabama, eastward into Georgia and the Carolinas. With stronger winds aloft, there should not be any tropical development in the northern Gulf despite the unsettled conditions.
We should mention that storms are more concentrated in the far southwest Gulf of Mexico, down in the Bay of Campeche, and some of the models hint at a surface low forming in that area. But, all of the models move it into Mexico, so it won't have much time to get its act together.
Guess we will roll with the flow in the forecast here today and tomorrow; warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds and, of course, scattered showers and storms. The best coverage of the showers should be along and east of I-65, but we can't rule out a few isolated storms over the western side of the state.
The weather on Thursday and Friday looks hotter and drier as the heat bubble to the west tries to nose in here. The models are showing mid 90s on those days, and we will bump up our forecast high temperatures as well. Warmer air aloft should keep afternoon showers and storms rather isolated on those days.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND: A fairly strong system up north, around the Great Lakes, will push a "cold front" down this way, but it will stall out near the Alabama/Tennessee border. This feature might enhance afternoon storm formation over the northern third of the state on Saturday and Sunday, but there is no upper support and for now we won't vary much from the standard summer formula in our weekend forecast. High temperatures should be close to 90 over the holiday weekend with scattered afternoon showers and storms.
WAY DOWN THE ROAD: The 00Z run of the GFS wants to develop a tropical system out in the Atlantic in the July 8-13 time frame, well off the east coast of the U.S. Probably bogus, but we will watch for trends.
Headed up to Sumiton today to Bevill State to speak to kids in a summer school program today; I will be back in the office for the afternoon video which will be posted by 3:30. Have been back in the office for a full day now after the vacation week and I have a much better grasp of whats going on... it always takes a day or so to catch up!