The Monday morning map discussion video is on the server:
Good to be back after a week off. Thanks to my associates for covering all the bases during the vacation... we crank out plenty of weather products and the daily schedule can make you dizzy.
We have an upper low showing up this morning just west of here, and both the WRF and the NAM show the circulation over central Mississippi this afternoon. This should generate a few scattered showers or storms later today, and both models agree the best coverage of showers will be along and north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. Once again, I caution you trying to tell you exactly when and where it will rain on a summer afternoon is very, very hard to do. We will struggle with this issue for the next two months, and you will hear the words "scattered, mainly afternoon thunderstorms" often in the forecast.
Tomorrow, the models suggest the best coverage of showers will be along and south of I-59, or south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden.
The models lose the upper low later in the week, and with warmer temperatures aloft we figure the summer showers will thin out by Thursday and Friday.
HOLIDAY WEEKEND: There seems to be some hint of a surface front north of us this weekend, but I am not sure that will affect the weather here. Bottom line is that we are looking at pretty typical summertime weather for the Independence Day weekend. Hot, humid, a partly sunny sky, and the risk of a passing afternoon storm in spots. Afternoon highs not too far from 90 degrees.
TROPICS: Lots of clouds in the Gulf of Mexico, but nothing organized this morning. Elsewhere the Atlantic basin is quite and tropical storm formation doesn't seem very likely for a while...
Will have the afternoon map discussion video posted by 3:30!