Brian Peters, J.B. Elliott, and I attended an interesting workshop in Huntsville yesterday called the “Southeast Weather Partners Workshop”. There were TV folks there like us, along with others from the National Weather Service, Emergency Management Agencies, and the research community. I am a big believer in getting together since we all work together as a team when it comes to the severe weather warning process. If there is a weak link in the chain, the whole system can fail.

One of my biggest concerns is the high false alarm ratio (FAR) when it comes to tornado warnings. The first point I made was that the problem wasn’t with the National Weather Service, but the blame rests with all of us. We simply have too many tornado warnings that never verify, and the “cry wolf” syndrome is a big issue. I have great fear many people don’t take tornado warnings seriously, and that will get someone hurt over the years. We simply have to cut down on the number of false tornado warnings based on radar signatures.

I am really stressing ground truth now during severe weather events. That is why ABC 33/40 is putting together our large SKYCAM network across the state; you can’t beat having a live camera looking at a suspicious storm. And, in addition to our network of live cameras, I am building a large team of Skywatchers who will report back to us in real time using instant message technology via the Internet. We have over 100 now, and I hope to really increase that number in coming months.
We don’t issue the warnings; that task belongs to the National Weather Service. But, we can feed information to them that will help make the warnings more accurate.

The easiest thing to do in the world is issue a tornado warning, but the most difficult thing to do is keeping your finger off the trigger when the radar is showing a meso or TVS signature. I hope by all working together we can really cut down on the number of false warnings in coming years, and make the whole system much stronger...

An all new WeatherBrains podcast is on the web, and available on iTunes:

http://www.weatherbrains.com

In this week's episode:

- Colors of the Season -- We get reports on fall colors visible in Alabama at Mount Cheaha State Park from Robin Atkins, an employee at the park, and from James Spann, who attended a chili cook-off at the park September 30th, and we get an update on colors in Tennessee;

- October weather - We hear about some Alabama weather extremes during previous Octobers and the varied range of weather possible during the month;

- Getting ready for StormAlert XTREME: James and Brian Peters give us a preview of what's being planned for November 11th in Birmingham and why it will be such a great opportunity for members of the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher network and others;

- Time to change the names 'podcast' and 'Map Discussion?'

Join James Spann, Brian Peters and David Black...

Weather Brains is a weekly 30 minute podcast for people who love weather. You can listen to the podcast anywhere on an iPod or any other MP3 player, or on your computer.

To subscribe, go to the iTunes Music Store, and choose "Podcasts". In the search box, enter "Weather Brains". On the next page, on the "Weather Brains" line click on subscribe.

If you use another podcast receiving program, enter this feed address:

http://feeds.feedburner.com/weatherbrains

This week, the National Science Board issued a report on the critical need for a national hurricane research initiative. Despite having the greatest economy and research capacity in the world, the United States remains especially vulnerable to hurricanes. The 2004 and 2005 seasons resulted in over 1,450 deaths from hurricanes in the U.S., along with our first $100 billion storm, Katrina. Some of the recommendations from the report include:

Our ability to predict changes in intensity and size of hurricanes must be improved. A very important past of that is to understand the interaction between sea and air. The main transfer of energy from ocean to atmosphere at the core of a hurricane occurs in an emulsion that developsbetween sea and air. Remotely piloted vehicles need to be used for this research. A high priority Is to improve modeling of storm surge, rainfall and inland flooding. Of lesser priority but still vital is to understand the relationship between hurricanes and climate. Observation systems must be upgraded and hardened to function in severe hurricane conditions and the latest technology employed for higher quality data. Progress in computer modeling assumes that hurricanes are predictable. Recent research indicates now that we may have to make a fundamental shift in thinking in this area.

Can the destructive effects of hurricanes be mitigated? That has been a long time dream that remains unrealized but must receive continued contemplation by researchers. It is of the highest priority to study how buildings and structures can be engineered to better withstand hurricanes. The socioeconomic impact of hurricanes must be better studied and planned for. Disaster response and recovery operations must be improved. The effects of hurricanes on natural ecosystems must be studied. Failures in infrastructure must be studied and resolved. Risk planning is not taken into consideration in all levels of community. Research must be undertaken to improve training, policy and outreach programs. Evacuation planning must be refined. Hurricane impact training and education must be addressed. A major part of each of these areas requires increased raw computational power. There is a wide divide between what is possible and what is available.

The keystone recommendation is the creation of a focused, sustained multi-agency initiative, a National Hurricane Research Initiative to improve our understanding and ability to predict, mitigate and to respond to the impacts of hurricanes.

Many, many thanks to J.B. for sitting in last night for me so I could attend the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation's Magic in the Moonlight event. It was an uplifting and inspiring evening of food, music and fund raising for a very important cause.

This morning's storms are now limited to mainly Lee County in East Alabama, including the Opelika area. This activity is moving southeast into Georgia.

A single light shower is over northern Sumter County.

Rain chances departed with the line of storms that moved through earlier this morning. Skies should become sunny to partly cloudy later today across the area.

High resolution visible satellite images show a thick band of low clouds south of the Tennessee Valley from Franklin, northern Marion and Winston Counties down through Cullman, Blount, parts of Jefferson, Shelby and on into Lee County where the storms are. Some clouds are rotating into West Alabama from Mississippi.

Sunshine is being observed at places like Tuscaloosa and over the Tennessee Valley at 9 a.m. Temperatures range from 64 at Gadsden, Fort Payne and Vinemont to 74 at Decatur, where sunshine prevails. Highs today will range from the lower 80s to upper 80s across teh area, with the warmest readings over West Alabama.

The week ahead looks mainly dry, with a few showers possible with ripples in a southeasterly flow around high pressure to our east during the week. A back door cold front will approach the area late on Thursday and could be accompanied by a few showers also.

Temperatures will be well above normal in the week ahead until the front arrives late in the week and then they will back off a bit. In fact, we might see widespread upper 80s and some 90 degrees readings over the next four days before the mercury edges back to near normal levels for the season Friday and Saturday.

The 2002 North Atlantic Hurricane Season started off slow, prompting researchers like Dr. Bill Gray to downgrade his forecasts for the season.

September is usually the most active month, but no one expected what happened in September 2002.

As September rolled around, the counts suddenly exploded.

A record 8 named tropical cyclones formed in the Atlantic basis during the month. This is far greater than the average 3 to 4 that usually occur and nearly equal to the long term average for an entire season. It is one better than the previous record of 7 observed in September 1998.

After the slow start, things exploded in the month of September. As the month drew to a close, a record eight named tropical cyclones had occurred in the month, including Edouard. Faye, Gustav, Hanna, Isidore, Josephine, Kyle and Lili.

The reasons for the burst of activity are hard to pinpoint, but one reason is that systems formed in multiple reasons. Another reason is that 2002 was the first year that the National Hurricane Center started naming subtropical storms.

From the mailbag...

A viewer writes:

“My question is: What is the best way for me to monitor Bham severe weather when there's no electricity? What does your family do to monitor severe weather when you lose electrical power at home (aside from cellphone)? I am an intelligent, well-educated person who has tried to research this question on the internet. And I am still baffled by what my first response should be when my area is in the midst of severe weather AND I lose electrical power.
When I see severe weather developing AND I have electrical power, I immediately turn my TV on to Channel 12 because you provide coverage that is continuous, detailed, and more factual and less hysterical than other channels. At the same time, I also have identified several favorite severe weather websites that I check periodically. But all of this requires electricity.
Am I correct in saying that, when all other forms of getting information (for the average citizen) are cut off by a lack of electricity, the last resort is listening to a radio? I own a weather radio with the SAME alert filtering technology but I still find it to be information overload.”

A great question... One idea is a battery operated TV; those have become fairly inexpensive and are available at many discount retailers.

Of course, a battery operated radio receiver is another way to get weather information when your power is out. But, in this day and age, most radio stations are often voice tracked from announcers who have never set foot on Alabama soil, and are run by computers that only know to “play 20 in a row”. But, there are some exceptions.

Cox Radio here in Birmingham goes to great lengths to cover local severe weather. In fact, they employ our own J.B. Elliott, the great Alabama weather legend, who handles their long form coverage on radio. So, if you can’t see us on TV, I strongly suggest listening to J.B. on 98.7 FM (WBHK/Kiss FM). They often simulcast J.B.’s coverage on their stations at 610 AM, and 95.7 FM. And, Don Dailey and his team do a great job on 104.7 FM (WZZK), along with 106.9 FM and 97.3 FM. Those three stations will occasionally simulcast the ABC 33/40 audio during tornado threats.

From the mailbag...

You never know what to expect in the ole e-mail inbox after a severe weather event. Here is one from Friday night, while Blount County was under a tornado warning, from someone named Niki:

“I just wanted to let you know... that your weather coverage stinks. How many times do you have to say the same dang thing over and freaking over. Ya have been on TV the entire afternoon. I understand your policy or whatever you wanna call it. I think it sad and pathetic how much ya keep talking about freaking high school football. If you are so worried about this tornado then WHY must you worry about HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL.... almost makes me embarassed to even live in this area where high school football take priority over a storm. While I miss Grey's anatomy you are sure to point out that you will be through for friday night freaking blitz are you serious!?!?!?!?! Get to the freaking point I MEAN HELLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO some people do not understand what you are saying you are talking a science people do not understand. Just tell them to get in a safe place and tell them where to go.. you do not have to explain TORNADOS in this much freaking detail. Can't you come up with another way to do this. I HATE LOCAL CABLE and I am so sick of looking at your bald weather man talk about the same thing over and over!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GET OFF MY TV”

But, not everyone hates us.... this note came in from a viewer named Kerry:

“I am a first grade teacher, and I have been watching you for many years now. I just wanted to thank you for the love and concern that you have for children. I listened to your words just a few minutes ago as a tornado was passing in the Cullman area. I could feel the concern in your voice as you were giving instructions to children that might be at home alone. God has truly blessed you with the wonderful gift of forecasting His amazing weather.”

Hey, gotta love e-mail. Like Forest Gump's box of chocolates... you never know what you're going to get! Our policy remains unchanged; any county that goes under a tornado warning in our DMA will put us in long form coverage. With most folks getting over 300 channels now thanks to cable and satellite, we figure the weather coverage haters can find something else to watch. Ratings continue to show a huge audience for emergency weather coverage, and we take our responsibility very seriously....

I was skeptical that convection would develop across the area this afternoon, but the radar over East Alabama is lit up like a proverial Christmas tree this afternoon.
Showers and storms are commonplace over several areas...

...Calhoun and Cleburne Counties
...Randolph, Tallapoosa, Coosa and Clay Counties down into Chambers County

Showers are not as intense over Talladega, Shelby, Bibb and Perry County, but they are there.

Moderate showers are lined up along the Jefferson/Walker County line back into Tuscaloosa County. This is just ahead of the main cold front.

Showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this afternoon ahead of a cold front.

The bulf of the activity is east of I-59, although a few showers are to the west over western Etowah, Cullman, Blount and western Jefferson County.

A brief shower just soaked the Birmingham Airport.

Lightning accompanies the showers over Calhoun, Talladega, Coosa, Tallapoosa and Clay Counties as well as southeastern Tuscaloosa and Bibb County. The latter activity will move toward Shelby County.

Good morning...

Much of a broad area of Alabama centered on the I-59 corridor is getting a good soaking this morning.

Radar estimates indicate that a widespread area of 2-4 inch amounts, with some 5 inch amounts may have fallen in many spots north of Birmingham and west of Oneonta. Another secondary band of heavy amounts across parts of Bibb, Tuscaloosa, Greene and Sumter Counties.

We were getting moderate rain in Trussville at 6:45 with 0.63 inches falling since midnight. Anyone who has rainfall amounts to share, please post them on the blog.

At 6:45, the leading edge of the rain, including some heavy rain, extends across eastern Etowah, western Calhoun, over much of Talladega County, then over much of Shelby County around Calera over to Centreville in Bibb County. The line of storms becomes thinner but stronger over Hale County and along the Sumter/Marengo county line.

The heaviest rains in the past hour have been from western Shelby County west of Alabaster back into Bibb County beyond West Blocton.

The rain area is making definite, although slow, progress to the east. The back edge of the rain now extends from Marshall County down through Cullman,. Walker, eastern Fayette then to western Tuscaloosa, Greene and Sumter Counties.

Rain should end in the Birmingham area by around 830 a.m., and eastern sections toward lunch time. The cold front is nearing thr Northwest corner of the state. It will move slowly southeastward across the area today. It could still produce a few showers and maybe a storm before it passes this afternoon.

Chances for severe weather are very limited today except possibly over southern sections. Flooding is not expected to be a major threat, unless we see training of heavy rainfall in any one area.

Drier and cooler air will overspread the area starting tonight with very pleasant conditions expected through midweek.