Severe Storm Near Moody

Here is an image of the St. Clair County storm...taken from Trussville...




Winter Outlook For 2006-2007

I have heard many theories from various people about what kind of winter we are going to have. So, it must be time to throw in a quick opinion from our weather office.

First off, nobody knows what the winter will bring. Meteorologists, amateur weather observers, old geezers who watch hornets nests and cow fur, the “Farmers Almanac”; you name it. There is not much skill in a seasonal outlook, no matter what people claim and what you hear. Having said that...

*Does a hot summer mean we have a cold winter ahead? Let me share a direct quote on this from the great Alabama weather legend, J.B. Elliott: “We have been asked, does that mean we will have a real cold winter? No connection. I once did an extensive study of Birmingham records going back to the mid-1880s and I could find no evidence that a hot summer automatically was followed by a cold winter, etc.” Enough said on that subject.

*Does the lack of hurricanes mean a cold winter? Lets not forget the hurricane season is far from over. And, we have had a number of big hurricanes this year, but that have been open Atlantic systems. But, the lack of hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico is now being tied by some to a weak El Nino cycle, which was officially declared “in progress” by NOAA last week. Gary Petti, a former Meteorologist-In-Charge of the Birmingham NWS office, did an excellent bit of research on the impact of an El Nino cycle on Alabama back in 1997 (when a fairly strong El Nino was in progress). His conclusion that most winters during and just following an El Nino cycle were a little warmer than normal, featured little snow, but lots and lots of rain. And, active spring severe weather seasons were likely the following year.

Read Gary's paper here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/research/Elnino/el_nino.php

*We are statically overdue for a cold winter, and some type of ice storm. Our last major ice storm in Central Alabama was in January 1982, and the last winter that featured zero degree weather was the 1989-1990 season (the worst part of that winter was December 22-25, 1989, when the mercury dropped into the -5 to zero degree range across the northern half of Alabama). Forget the “global warming” hype, it can be very cold here and one year our luck will run out. Going into 2006, we knew we were long overdue for a hot summer, and look what happened.

*The current upper air pattern: There has been a mean upper air trough over the eastern U.S. for the past couple of months, and the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has been strongly negative since mid-July. If this pattern persists through winter, it would mean frequent shots of cold air.

As you can see from the notes above, there are plenty of conflicting signals for the coming season. If the current El Nino cycle remains weak, I think this winter will be colder than normal and might feature a few good winter storm threats. However, if the El Nino is strong, the winter would most likely feature no super cold air and lots of rain. I think this the key, so lets keep an eye on it. Here is the NOAA El Nino status page:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.html

Lets also watch the SOI (southern oscillation index)... when the SOI is strongly negative that signals a pretty decent El Nino:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/bulletin/figt2.gif

As always, time will be the only way to tell what will happen this winter, but all of us in the weather office will be waiting, and watching!


WeatherBrains Episode 34

WeatherBrains episode 34, is on the web and available on iTunes:

http://www.weatherbrains.com/

WeatherBrains is our weekly 30 minute podcast by and for weather geeks...

In this week's episode:

- Is summer over, or could there be another final warm spell for central Alabama this year? J.B. Elliott and Jason Simpson share their thoughts on the weather ahead;

- Tropical update: We'll have the latest on the Atlantic hurricane season;

- Golden Apple Award: Jason describes a new program by ABC 33/40 to recognize the hard work of Alabama teachers;

- A WeatherBrains Extra: Colorado Campout ... Just back from ten days of tent camping in the Colorado Rockies, Birmingham resident Mickey Gerontakis knew the weather could be unpredictable--and it was. Mickey tells David Black about his elk hunting adventure in the
mountains;

- The Havana Junction Heatwave: Is J.B. Elliott really a powerhouse player on the gridiron?

A weekend football gathering at Jason Simpson's place catches J.B. showing off his athletic prowess...

Join Jason Simpson, JB Elliott and David Black...


Protecting Louisiana

I just finished Ivor Van Heerden’s book The Storm, about Hurricane Katrina. Van Heerden is the Deputy Director of the Louisiana Hurricane Center. It is an excellent book, giving a fine overview of the events associated with the devastating storm, a look to why the levee system failed and what has to be done to protect Southeast Louisiana from future hurricanes.

After Katrina, van Heerden traveled to the Netherlands to understand what the Sutch had done to protect their country after their devastating flood in 1953. He combines what he learned there with his knowledge of geography and the coastal environment of Louisiana to advance a defense plan for the state that would ensure New Orleans would be high and dry next time a major hurricane comes calling. It calls for…

1. a huge flood control structure at the Rigolets, the eastern entrance into Lake Pontchartrain. This massive structure would prevent storm surge from entering the lake.
2. moving the pumping stations on the flood control canals from deep inside the City of New Orleans to the head of the canal at the Lake with barriers that would prevent water from the lake from getting into the city.
3. huge new barrier levees that protect New Orleans East and Slidell
4. a large surge gate must be built to protect the City from flooding surging in from the funnel between the Industrial Canal and Mississippi River Gulf Outlet.
5. a barrier levee, hundreds of miles long must be built from the Mississippi Coast to Lake Charles, protecting the inhabited areas of southern Louisiana
6. recreate depleted wetlands by diverting sediment containing water from the Mississippi River at several locations instead of letting it flow directly into the Gulf.
7. rebuild barrier islands along the coast by dredging sand from the ocean floor. This will provide protection from hurricane surges.



A New Tool in the Arsenal

A historic event occurred on Friday, September 16, 2005….

NOAA flew its first unmanned aircraft, or Aerosonde, into Hurricane Ophelia while it was moving along the East Coast of the United States. At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the Aerosonde was released from a ground based transport vehicle and lifted off for a ten hour successful mission. Researchers at NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) in Miami were overjoyed at the results of the flight. They hope that the missions will become routine events in the near future. Currently, flights must occur within flying range of the Wallops Island facility, which limits the range of use.

The information provided by Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is invaluable to forecasters. But the aircraft are unable to fly at low levels because of the turbulent conditions located there. Flying at altitudes as low as five hundred feet, the Aerosonde allows continuous real time sampling of the near-surface environment, which is increasingly believed to be critical in understanding intensification processes, needless to say how strong winds are at the surface. Observations of temperature, pressure, humidity and wind speed were measured every half second and transmitted back to the National Hurricane Center and AOML by satellite. An infrared sensor also measured sea surface temperatures.

Currently, reconnaissance crews take flight level observations, from which surface winds must be estimated using a formula. Often, the estimates are not accurate. They also make visual observations of the sea state and estimate winds from those observations. The Aerosondes will allow for more accurate low level wind measurements.

The air-sea interface appears to be important in understanding intensification, because this is where energy is transferred from the ocean to the storm through evaporation. This could help forecasters to make better intensity change forecasts. The Aerosondes have a flight level ceiling of 2500 feet when manned aircraft are in the area. The Aerosondes will be permitted to spiral all the way to 10,000 feet in the eye at the end of each mission for a special sounding if no aircraft are in the area.

The Aerosonde returned in pristine condition at 5:30 p.m. EDT to its launch site at the NASA Wallops Island Flight Facility in southeastern Virginia. Hopefully, this will be the start of something big,


A Refreshing Morning

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://www.jamesspann.com/

Fall is sure in the air this morning. At 5:00 a.m. the mercury has dropped to 59 at Birmingham. The coolest spots on the hourly observation list are Crossville and Cullman with 54 degrees; Gadsden and Fort Payne are reporting 55. I wonder if some of the cooler valleys have reached the 40s... J.B. will have a post of the morning lows a little later when they are all reported.

Look for a string of sunny days ahead with warm afternoons and cool nights. We go back into the 50s tomorrow morning; most spots should be somewhere between 55 and 59, much like this morning.

BIG SNOW STORM: The first major winter storm of the season will unfold over the northern Rockies over the weekend, some of the high elevation communities across Utah, Wyoming, and Montana will be a good covering by Sunday. That storm moves into Canada by Monday, and the trailing cold front will move through Alabama early Tuesday morning. At this point it looks like the best chance of showers and storms will come Monday night, although we have mentioned a chance of rain as early as Monday afternoon, and as late as Tuesday morning.

Another nice surge of cool and dry air will move in here during the middle of next week.

TROPICS: Gordon and Helene will remain far from land; you can see the advisories and graphics on our tropical page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/tropics.hrb

We will keep an eye on the Gulf of Mexico when that front next week gets down there. Looks like the long track, Cape Verde systems this year will tend to move north into the open Atlantic, and any threat to the Gulf coast will probably come from systems that form close to home, and old dying surface fronts always have to be watched this time of the year.

EL NINO MEDIA MADNESS: Get ready... NOAA released a statement yesterday that they feel a weak El Nino cycle is beginning:

http://www.weatherparty.com/story.php?title=Weak-El-Nino-has-returned

Watch the national media go bonkers on this... there is no doubt there is a change in the ENSO cycle, but the possible impact on our winter season is very uncertain. During most El Nino cycles you expect an enhanced sub-tropical jet, which can mean lots of precipitation for the Deep South. Let me suggest this excellent paper by Gary Petti, former MIC of the Birmingham NWS office:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/significant_events/research/Elnino/el_nino.php

Gary wrote that paper in 1997, and some of his conclusions were right on the money.... including the idea of active tornado seasons in 1998, 1999, and 2000. All of you remember the big tornado events during those years.

PARTY TIME: We are having a big 10th birthday bash today at ABC 33/40... I will be doing the weather live under the "big tent" set up outside out studio at 5:00 and 6:00... I hope to see many friends out there today. But, before the party I will have the afternoon map discussion posted by 3:30!


Want To Join The ABC 33/40 Skywatcher Team?

I am promoting our new Skywatcher team on ABC 33/40 News tonight at 10:00; the information you need is below!


The ABC 33/40 Pinpoint Doppler Radar is an invaluable tool; providing our team of meteorologists storm data in real time, including velocity and specific storm structure information that helps to identify tornadoes and other areas of severe weather. But, all radar beams go in a straight line, and the beam can be several thousand feet off the ground due to the curvature of the earth. For this reason, obtaining "ground truth" is crucial in the warning process.

For this reason, we are in the process of forming a large team of "Skywatchers", who report weather conditions to the ABC 33/40 Weather Center using instant message technology. Our team of Skywatchers also send us digital pictures and video of weather for use on ABC 33/40 News and our web site.

We have over 80 members of the team now, and are always looking for more. We need people who:

*Have taken at least the basic SKYWARN class, or attended one of the ABC 33/40 Storm Alert XTREME sessions we offer in the fall each year (or have a good understanding of thunderstorm structure)

*Have a digital camera, digital video equipment, or both

*Good Internet connectivity for sending images and video to us, and for instant message communications

*Love weather and want to learn more

*Can work in a controlled instant message environment with our other team members

*Are 16 years of age or older

We especially need Skywatchers from rural counties where there are no "official" observations.

Interested in joining the team? Send me an e-mail message:

jspann@abc3340.com

Tell me a little about yourself and we will be in touch with additional information!

Look for reports and images from our team of Skywatchers on ABC 33/40 News, and on our blog!

James Spann, CBM
Lead Meteorologist
ABC 33/40


ABC 33/40 10th Anniversary Special Now Online

I have posted the ABC 33/40 tenth anniversary special on the web if you missed it on TV this past Sunday night... the show is available on both Quicktime and Windows Media, and is on our video page:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb


Enjoy!


The Sandcastle that is New Orleans

To this day, I love to build sandcastles at the beach. My favorite part of going to the coast growing up was to build the biggest, most complex cities as close to the surf line as possible. First, I would build a protective seawall. Once it was established, building could go on behind the wall. A world would rise behind the wall, including buildings and towers and streets. The greatest pleasure would come when large waves would batter the exterior walls, but they would stand.

I am struck by the fact that New Orleans was like my sand cities. The Crescent City’s levee system was basically untested for decades. With the exception of Hurricane Betsy, no really big waves came until Hurricane Katrina. And the wave that finally came exposed the weaknesses in the walls.

What happens now if another big or bigger wave comes?

I have read three books on Katrina now. First, The Great Deluge, by Douglas Brinkley is an excellent account of the storm and its aftermath. It exposes the inadequacy of the FEMA response. I just finished Jed Horne’s A Breach of Faith. Horne, a reporter for the Times Picayune, must have used many of the same sources as Brinkley, because they read a lot alike, until you get to the final chapters. Then he does a masterful job describing the lack of direction and planning in post-Katrina New Orleans.

I just got Ivor van Heerden’s book, The Storm. Van Heerden is the director of the Louisiana Hurricane Center. After just the first couple of chapters, I can tell this is going to be a landmark book. Van Heerden was the voice in the wilderness warning of the eventual disaster that would occur.



Reaching For The Stars...

Every now and then, perhaps when you least expect it, comes a once in a lifetime opportunity. The weekend of September 8th and 9th was my chance, as I was invited to attend the launch of the Space Shuttle Atlantis at the Kennedy Space Center. How was I so lucky? It was all thanks to a good friend and someone lots of folks know:  Bill "Bubba" Bussey, of the Rick and Bubba radio show, which airs in Birmingham and is syndicated throughout the Southeast U.S.

Atlantis' Friday liftoff had to be scrubbed because of concerns over a possible faulty fuel sensor. NASA rescheduled liftoff for Saturday, and this time, despite a few minor issues (including weather), Atlantis' six member crew blasted off in a spectacular launch.

What made this trip even more special was our viewing site. As VIP guests of NASA, we were able to watch the launch from the fifth floor of NASA's Operational Services Building 2, a new building sporting a huge open deck overlooking KSC and Cape Canaveral. We were five stories up and 3.5 miles away from Atlantis, which, as Bubba observed, is as close as any human is allowed to the Shuttle when it's launching. We had a better view than almost anyone around (including the news media).

Here's the view from OSB 2's fifth floor observation deck. The white building at the left is Shuttle Launch Control, and just to the right, you can see Atlantis as it sat on the pad Friday:



Most folks watching Shuttle launches have to see them from ground level, meaning that the Shuttle must climb some before it comes into their view.  Not so for us!  From our vantage point, we could see the entire pad and even the Atlantic beyond. In fact, this is the shot I got using my digital camera with a 6x optical lens:


Bubba gives radio listeners a live update as the countdown clock ticks down Friday.
He's talking through a cellular interface built in to his sunglasses that connects, via Bluetooth, to his Palm phone. The other side of his glasses controls (I think) his Ipod. Talk about a technogeek!



Saturday morning:  Atlantis' main engine and Solid Rocket Boosters fire, lifting the orbiter off Launch Pad 39B on its way to the International Space Station.



How about zero to 19,000 miles an hour in eight minutes?  It is an incredible sight...



Five minutes later, a massive cloud signals Atlantis' successful fiery ascent. 


We were able to get a great tour of the Cape, courtesy of Tim Taylor, a Hoover resident who works in the Shuttle program, who acted as our Tour Guide.  Here, Tim, Bill and I check out the T-38s NASA's astronauts fly (these are those small aircraft you see following alongside the Shuttle when it lands).


"Did my pictures come out?"  Don Juan, Rick and Bubba show producer, checks out his digital camera during our flight back to Birmingham.


Finally, our trip was even more special because of the ride.  We flew down and back
in a privately owned Diamond Jet:

From wheels up in Birmingham to wheels down in Melbourne, Florida: 90 minutes. Sure beats driving.  We had a great flight crew taking care of us--the ride was as smooth as could be.  Just one warning about flying in style like this:  You will never want to fly on a commercial airliner again!

I really do consider this a once in a lifetime experience and am so thankful for having had the chance to go.  Being there in person to see a Shuttle launch is so much more vivid than watching it on television.  When the blast wave hit us, the entire building shook.  The noise was deafening, unlike anything I've ever heard in my life.  The whole experience was emotional, nerve wracking and exhilarating, all at the same time.  And to top it all off, NASA treated us (and fed us) like kings.

If you ever have doubts about whether we should be taking the risks and spending the money (and there's a lot of both involved) to further our knowledge of the universe, I hope you'll be open-minded enough to pay a visit in person and see for yourself what NASA is doing.  The folks at NASA are some of the most brilliant the world has ever seen.  And what they are doing is nothing short of amazing.

I hope that we never lose our vision to reach for the stars.





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