We will be doing a live 30 minute special tonight at 8:00 p.m. on our live stream on abc3340.com, along with our dinigal channels 33.2 and 40.2. The specia will address the winter weather threat and the cold blast for the weekend....

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a "snow advisory" for the following counties in their CWA (county warning area):

MARION, LAMAR, WINSTON, FAYETTE, WALKER, BLOUNT, ETOWAH AND CHEROKEE...FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM.

Some light accumulation is possible in these counties late tonight as the rain begins to change to snow. The greatest accumulation will remain to the north, over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama.

Memphis is now reporting heavy snow... and a heavy snow warning is in effect for the Memphis metro area and northwest Mississippi, where 3 to 5 inches is likely.

More to follow...

Here is what is expected, based on official NWS forecasts:

LITTLE ROCK
1 to 2 inches of snow accumulating this afternoon.

MEMPHIS
Rain changing to snow this afternoon with 1 to 3 inches accumulating. Additional 2 inches tonight with total for this storm about 3 to 5 inches.

NASHVILLE
Rain starting this afternoon changing to snow tonight when 2 to 4 inches may accumulate. Snow showers continuing off and on through Sunday...especially Saturday. (See our description of a snow shower at the end of this report)

KNOXVILLE
Rain changing to snow after midnight with 1 to 3 inches accumulation. An additional 1 to 3 inches Saturday for a storm total of 2 to 6 inches. Snow showers continue through Sunday.

CHATTANOOGA
Rain to snow after midnight with about 2 inches of snow accumulation. Additional 1 inch Saturday for a total of about 3 inches.

ATLANTA
No snow in the official forecast but a lot of rain tonight and Saturday, especially through Saturday morning.

FLORENCE-TUSCUMBIA-MUSCLE SHOALS (EXTREME NW ALABAMA)
Rain becoming mixed with and changing to snow this evening with light snow continuing after midnight. Accumulation about 1/2 inch. Snow showers on Saturday may bring an additional dusting.

HUNTSVILLE
Rain changing over to snow tonight with about 1 inch snow accumulation but possibly more on higher elevations. (Remember, Huntsville has Monte Sano) Additional 1/2 inch accumulation Saturday because of snow showers. Flurries or snow showers will continue into Sunday.

GATLINBURG AND GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK REGION
2 to 4 inches in Gatlinburg tonight with an additional 3 to 4 inches Saturday. 100% chance of snow. Occasional snow will continue Saturday night and Sundy. Becoming quite windy over the weekend with gusts to 35 mph Saturday night and Sunday. These snow amounts include such places as Gatlinburg and cades Cove. Naturally, heavier amounts likely in the higher elevations.

I-20 CORRIDOR (TUSCALOOSA-BIRMINGHAM-ANNISTON)
See our 7-day discussion and also the morning map discussion and video discussion by James Spann.

DENVER
What a change. Yesterday it was 57 in Denver, this morning it is 15 and snowing. Their high today only 25. And I am always fascinated by interesting place names. There is now 52 inches of snow on the ground at Never Summer, Colo., elevation 10,280 feet in North Central Colorado.

WHAT IS A SNOW SHOWER?
They usually produce more snow than flurries. Snow showers resemble summer rain showers in a way because when one moves over your area it can cloud up quickly and snow comes down in a fury for a few minutes. Happens during unstable cold air sweeping across the area. A few minutes later, it may stop with the sun out again. One of those can bring a dusting of snow in just a few minutes.

ENGLISH QUESTION
Why is it when we say the sun is out, it is shinning. When we say a light bulb out, it is dark. Just wondering. Outta here, time for more coffee.

Life goes on, cold, hot, snow, or rain.

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Let the fun and games begin.

After a slight southward adjustment of the surface low on the 00Z model runs last night... the chance of accumulating snow is increasing a bit for extreme North Alabama. The NWS in Huntsville has issued a winter storm watch for the top row of counties in Alabama; counties north of the Tennessee River. More likely the heaviest snow will be from this area northward into Tennessee tonight and tomorrow morning.

Here is what I think happens down here:

Rain becomes widespread tonight. Maybe even some thunder.

The rain begins to change to snow after midnight, initially in the northwest corner of the state. The rain-snow line drops south during the pre-dawn hours, and sometime between 3:00 and 6:00 a.m. we begin to see snow flakes as far south as I-20. The main batch of precipitation should be out of here by 6:00 a.m.

Accumulating snow is most likely north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. Around 1/2 inch near U.S. 278, with amounts to 3 inches close to the Tennessee border.

A dusting is possible as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.

TOMORROW: Needless to say, the cold air is the biggest story. We stay in the 30s all day with wind chill values below freezing. Cold air aloft should lead to instability snow showers in the broad cyclonic flow over the Deep South. Keep in mind snow showers can make the ground white in a hurry... and they are possible as far south as Montgomery during the day!

Sure looks like flurries are still possible tomorrow night and even into Sunday morning. I think J.B.'s forecast over on the seven day discussion page is excellent.

SUNDAY: Still cold; highs only in the 30s. A mix of sun and clouds. I think clouds and wind will keep us from reaching the teens early Sunday, but we will be way, way down in the 20s.

MONDAY: If we can go clear and the wind dies down, we will be close to 20 Monday morning with teens in the colder valleys.

LONG RANGE: I found the idea of us warming into the 60s next week fairly laughable... that was way overboard. Yes, we will warm up, but not that much. And, I still think the rest of the month, generally speaking, will feature colder than normal temperatures. And, probably one or two more events like the one tonight and tomorrow morning.

TODAY: I have an early weather program at Rocky Ridge Elementary in Hoover; I will be in the office the rest of the day waiting and watching like everyone else.

We will keep the blog hopping during the next 48 hours. Stay tuned...

Could be a few.

Driving from Trussville to Medical Center East and back tonight, noticed a few places on lesser traveled roads where water was still draining onto the edge of the road.

Temperatures have been falling rapidly tonight. It was already down to 26 at Black Creek, in Northeast Etowah County by 7:30.

While this is nothing like our black ice situation earlier this week, it only takes a small area of ice to throw you into a spin.

Might be a good idea to watch it a bit closely driving to work or school Friday morning.

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Storm Alert 2006 will begin tonight at Homewood High School (the auditorium) at 7:00... I sure hope to see you there. The first 600 people will get a free t-shirt; we have some really good Alabama weather stories and you can meet most of the characters that post on this blog. J.B. Elliott will keep the office staffed tonight and he will be writing the Friday morning forecast package. Quite frankly, I am glad to hand off the baton to J.B. for this event.

After a decent review of current surface and upper air observations, water vaopr loops, model data, and other data... here is the current thinking on coming attractions:

*Rain will become widespread across Alabama tomorrow night as a surface low forms over the southwest part of the state. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch look likely... maybe even some thunder involved, especially south of I-20.

To the north, snow should develop late tomorrow night over much of Tennessee while we get the rain. A large part of Tennessee and Southern Kentucky could see 2 to 5 inches of snow tomorrow night, so keep that in mind if you are traveling to the north.

*As the surface low moves into Georgia, there is a chance the rain will change to snow across the northern third of Alabama before ending early Saturday morning. I think the best chance of accumulating snow will be north of U.S. 278, or north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. An inch or so is possible there, but the really significant amounts, most likely, will be north of the border in Tennessee. I sure can't rule out a dusting as far south as Birmingham and Anniston.

This forecast scenario is based on the northward adjustment of the surface low track, seen on the 06Z and 12Z model runs. There is decent agreement; we must note the UKMET keeps the low near the Florida border, with a much better snow potential for the I-20 corridor. I also have to note that 1050 mb high showing up on all the models; I can't recall the last time I saw one of those down here in the "lower 48". That is very cold air.

*Much colder air rolls here on Saturday in the wake of the departing storm. Some flurries will be possible during the day, maybe even a few snow showers. Temperatures will hold in the 30s, and wind chill values will remain below freezing all day. It will be a very raw and cold day.

We should be down in the 18 to 23 degree range early Sunday morning. I think the winds and some leftover clouds will keep the bottom from dropping out. Monday morning could be the coldest with a clear sky and light wind. This will be the coldest two day stretch of the winter season SO FAR.

A warming trend begins Monday afternoon of next week.

LONG RANGE: Same story; I still think the rest of the month, generally speaking, will be colder than normal. And, we will have to watch the interaction between the Polar and the Subtropical jets. Models won't understand that until a few days before each event... just like the models didn't see this storm coming in for Friday night until yesterday.

REMEMBER: Look for a surprise or two just about every winter storm threat like this. Stay tiuned for changes!

I have to pack up and head down to Homewood High School... I will be doing the weather there at 5:00 and 6:00 this evening prior to Storm Alert 2006. Hope to see you and your family there!

Hereare some morning snow depth reports:

2 inches at Gatlinburg, Beech Mountain, Bryson City, Cades Cove and Morristown, Tenn.
8 inches on Newfound Gap
9 inches atop Mt. Leconte where the low this morning was 8 above.

A few flurries were noted down into North Alabama including Centre, Rainbow City, Clay and as far south as Chalkville Mountain Road in Jefferson County. (just a few flakes)

The Thursday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

OVERNIGHT SNOW: Interesting to note the NWS in Huntsville had to issue a "Winter Weather Advisory" for Northeast Alabama late last night; for areas east of a line from Petersburg to Harvest to Arab. There was enough snow to cover cars in parts of Jackson County in the far northeast corner of the state.

NEXT ISSUE: No doubt we will have a big time weekend chill, but will the snow fans finally get what they want?

Snow lovers won't like the 06Z model runs; they are trending northward with the surface low for tomorrow night. They suggest the greatest chance of accumulating snow a little north of here, with the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of rain Friday night, with a quick change to snow on the back side of the departing storm early Saturday morning.

The 06Z GFS is the colder model; the 06Z GFS runs the low from around Grove Hill to Macon. This would suggest perhaps a chance of some acumulation as far south as I-20 early Saturday as the rain changes to snow, but not much.

The 06Z NAM is faster and warmer; it runs the low up I-59 from Tuscaloosa to Chattanooga with only flurries on the back side.

Last night's 00Z runs (both of them) were farther south and colder. Generally speaking, old timers like me trust the 00Z and 12Z cycles more that the off hour cycles. I stilll lean in the direction of those 00Z runs.

What to do?

I am not a big fan of flip-flopping, so I won't change the package I wrote last night all that much. Everything will be adjusted northward a bit, however, with the best chance of a good snow cover closer to the Tennessee line. I still think we have a chance of getting a little snow on the ground down here. Look at the numbers; that is a whopping 1052 millibar high over Wyoming feeding the cold air.

AND, very cold air aloft and lingering moisture could set the stage for instability snow showers during the day Saturday; those things can make the ground white as well.

WEEKEND CHILL: The weekend will be very cold. I doubt if we reach 40 on Saturday or Sunday, and we will be close to 20 early Sunday morning, with teens in colder places. This will be the coldest air we have seen so far this season...

LONG RANGE: I still think the pattern favors one or two more systems like the one coming in this weekend. I know the GFS really doesn't suggest that, but I don't think it it correct.

I have a very busy day today; I will be taping a radio program with Don Dailey at WZZK this morning, and speaking at the Alabama Baptist Children's Homes and Family Ministries at midday. But, both places have good wi-fi and I will be cheking in with thoughts as the 12Z models roll in....

Lets use this space tonight to be specific about the storm system that will impact the Deep South Friday night and Saturday morning. The computer models are now in relatively good agreement, making for a reasonably high confidence forecast. Of course, having said that winter weather forecasting in Alabama is very difficult, and some changes in this scenario might be needed.

Rain should enter West Alabama Friday evening, sometime between 4:00 and 7:00 p.m. Rain should become widespread by 9:00 p.m. For communities in extreme North Alabama (the Tennessee Valley), the precipitation should begin as a wintry mix, and change to all snow before midnight.

As colder air pulls in behind a surface low that will move from near Mobile to Dothan, the rain should change to snow over the central part of the state during the night. For the I-20 corridor, including Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston, we believe snow accumulation POTENTIAL of 1 to 2 inches is possible from about midnight through 6:00 a.m.

There could be a band of heavier snow accumulation (over two inches) near U.S. 278, or along a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. The ultimate track of the surface low will determine where the strip of heaviest snow will fall, and that strip is only about 20 to 40 miles wide in most cases here in Alabama with winter storm events. It is very hard to nail down that strip more than 24 hours in advance.

We need to mention that the models are suggest liquid equivalent amounts of about 3/4 inch with this system from 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 6:00 a.m. Saturday; if by chance that all falls as snow some spots could see 7 inches. But, we don’t expect that to happen, and for now we will go with the more conservative forecast based on a large part of that 3/4 inch falling as rain.

As always, a few surprises are likely with any kind of system like this. And, of course, this forecast is subject to change.

Very cold air settles into the state for the weekend, and temperatures could reach the teens both Sunday and Monday morning. Stay tuned!

TENNESSEE
Nashville...32, light snow, visibility 1 mile
Clarksville...34, light snow
Smyrna...34, light snow, visibility 1 mile
Knoxville...34, light snow
Oak Ridge...34, light snow
Chattanooga...37, light rain
Fort Campbell (Ky.)...32, light snow

NORTH ALABAMA
Huntsville...41, light rain
Decatur...42, light rain
Meridianville...41, drizzle (north of Huntsville)
Fort Payne...37, light rain
Cullman...37, rain

* One to two inches of snow expected tonight across the Cumberland Plateu of East Tennessee, places like Crossville.

* One to three inches expected in the Smoky Mountain counties, with 4 inches in the highest elevations.