The Saturday video map discussion is on the server at:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Overrunning precipitation has begun to the west of us with some light to moderate rain already in west central Alabama according to radar. Clouds exist across most of the state with the exception of the southern third of Alabama and the Northwest Florida Panhandle. Spring break folks at the beach should have a mostly sunny day today.

But as we get into tonight and Sunday precipitation will pickup and we expect a chilly, wet day for Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked much of the Southeastern US for a slight risk of severe weather on Monday and Monday night. As James noted over the last couple of days, the severe weather will depend on the quality of the air mass as it changes and we get into the warm sector. I feel certain there will be a severe weather risk Monday afternoon and evening primarily south of the Birmingham metro area. That risk could extend further north if we get good advection of warm, moist area with dewpoints into the mid 60s. The NAM output shows a CAPE approaching 500 and an LI close to -2, so these indices are not especially indicative of severe weather. The NAM was also not generating much precipitation either, so I'm a bit suspicious of the output.

Current model output suggests the threat of severe weather for Central Alabama should come in the Monday afternoon and evening time frame. Afternoon heating if we get some significant breaks in the clouds could help with destabilizing the atmosphere. So it will all depend on the quality of the warm sector air we can get into our area and just how far north it extends.

The rest of the week will be dry and cool. Colder air could invade the area Friday and Saturday as the ridge to our west strengthens and we come under increasingly stronger northwesterly flow. As the ridge dampens Sunday the colder air will shift eastward and we begin to come back to a west-to-southwest flow aloft and temperatures moderate.

The really long range forecast for April 3 shows an interesting pattern with a strong short wave approaching the area from the west. This could present a severe weather threat and we're probably all familiar with the events of April 3 and 4 back in 1974. I'm not saying we will see another record breaking severe weather outbreak - I'm saying that the current models suggest the potential for some severe weather - remember, 384 hours is really a looooong way out for anything more than trend watching.

Hope you have a good weekend. Tomorrow is my Sunday to usher at church during the early morning service, so I'll try to get the map discussion posted before I head out.

-Brian-

I have driven across the Texas Panhandle numerous times, both east to west and north to south. It is an interesting region and has a beauty all its own. It is a very friendly region. Ranchers will wave at you from their tractor as you drive by. I love that part of the country, so I have been saddened lately to read of the tragic wildfires that have swept across the Panhandle within the last week and earlier fires across North-Central Texas and Oklahoma.

Since last weekend, four large fires killed 11 people and blackened 850,000 acres in the Panhandle alone. Nearly 4 million acres have burned across Texas this winter. A few days ago, one rancher who owned 11 thousand acres saw nearly every blade of grass on the entire ranch burn. 200 head of cattle were burned to death. He and his son almost lost their lives trying to escape because the wildfire was advancing NE at 40 mph. Utility poles were burned through at the base and were dangling from overhead wires. A large number of other cattle were seriously burned and had to be euthanised. There is a good chance of some showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night in the Panhandle. Further south numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Dallas-Ft. Worth area today through Sunday night dumping several inches of rain. That is a great blessing, but the overall drought has not ended.

Recent rain and snow in Arizona is only a temporary relief. The outlook for April, May and June is for more dry weather in the Southwest, Central and Southern Plains. I hate to think what the fire season will be through the summer. I am afraid it will be tragic.

-J.B. Elliott

I was live on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 and 6:00 this evening from the annual Winston County Chitlin Dinner in Arley, sponsored by the Winston County Chitlin Eating Association. This event was at Meek High School, and is a fundraiser for the Meek band program. About 1,500 people were there... politicians could speak five minutes for fifty dollars. All of the major gubernatorial candidates were there along with many others running for local office.

Here are some photos from the trip:


Nice shot of downtown Birmingham from AirLink 33/40


You can see historic Rickwood Field, Legion Field, and downtown Birmingham in this shot.


The dam at the southern end of Smith Lake.


Would YOU eat one of these? This is right after the batter was applied to the pig intestines.


Chitlins cooking in the deep fryer. An interesting aroma...


Chief photographer Bill Castle is overwhelmed by that aroma. Helicopter pilot Donnie Click enjoys the moment.

SPRING BREAK WEATHER: Here is a spot check of weather at a few seemingly popular locations for Spring Break next week:

ORLANDO
The high should be around 82 tomorrow through Tuesday, then cooling to highs 75-78 Wednesday and Thursday. Dry weather most of the time, except a slight chance of showers on Tuesday.

GATLINBURG
Dry tomorrow and Sunday. Showers starting Sunday night becoming numerous Monday. Scattered showers on Tuesday, but fair and dry weather Wednesday and Thursday. For the next 5 days, highs will be rather consistently in the 40s in the mountains and 50s in places like Gatlinburg, Cades Cove and Pigeon Forge.

GULF SHORES
A high near 68 tomorrow with most of the day dry. A good chance of rain by Sunday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday. Mostly sunny and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs around 78 Monday but cooling to the 60s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Very little rain after Monday. This forecast is also good for the beach area of NW Florida.

WASHINGTON
The nation’s capitol should have mostly sunshine Sunday and Monday with lows 28-30 and highs near 50. A chance of rain on Tuesday with a high of 42. A chance of snow Tuesday night. Fair, dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with highs both day near 50.

The Friday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Anyone remember the song by Wet Willie from 1979?

"One Friday evenin'
What a feelin', feel like singin'
Tired of workin', my mind is buzzin'
Feel like dancin' yes I do

But you gotta make the best of life while you're young
Good people, weekend
Do just what you wanna do, weekend
When those workin' days are through
Weekend, weekend, weekend"

Welcome to the weekend. I just found out I will be flying up to Winston County in a few minutes in our helicopter for a live weather broadcast from the annual supper held by the Meek High School band and the Winston County Chitlin' Eaters Association in Arley. I am not sure what to expect; somehow this thing sounds more like a John Oldshue event. But, tune in at 5:00 and 6:00 to see whats up.

GOOD SOAKING AHEAD: Rain amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possibly, and really likely, over much of North and Central Alabama from tomrrow night through Monday night. Some rain should slip in here tomorrow night, then becoming widespead on Sunday. Looks like we might hold in the 40s much of the day Sunday with a steady rain falling. Good day toi stay inside after church and watch March Madness, or take a long nap.

We should break into the warm sector of the storm Monday, with showers and storms likely. Some strong to severe storms will be possible, although the quality of the warm sector is very much in doubt.

The middle of next week looks dry and cool, but more rain is likely by the end of the week. Yeah, I know, the 12Z GFS lost the end of the week system, but I think it is wrong.

Keep eye on the blog for updates this weekend... I have to board the chopper for the flight to Arley.

Enjoyed seeing the 2nd graders at Deer Valley today... watch for them on the KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News.

Have a great weekend!

The Friday morning map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

Some low clouds around this morning; those should give way to a mostly sunny sky today. Temperatures will be cooler with highs in the 60 to 65 degree range.

THE WEEKEND: Clouds increase tomorrow, but I still think most of the day will be dry. Rain begins tomorrow night, and that will be the beginning of a very wet period for Alabama. A cool rain is likely most of the day Sunday; in fact now both the NAM and the GFS are suggesting we hold in the 45 to 49 degree range through the day. That will be a miserable, wet, and chilly day.

MONDAY: The possibility of severe weather is very much up for debate. Rain and storms are likely, and the rain could be heavy at times. The latest QPF suggests rain amounts here between 2 and 4 inches between Saturday night and Monday night. Some flooding issues could develop.

The 06Z run of the GFS does try to get us in the warm sector of the storm, with the main surface low tracking from near Tulsa to Louisville. But, the quality of the warm sector is questionable. Can we get mid 60 dewpoints in here? Wind fields do seem adequete for a few severe storms. We will review the situation closely over the weekend, check in here for updates.

Another shot of cooler air arrives Tuesday with highs in the 50s. Clouds could linger much of the day. Then, our weather should be dry and cool on Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

Another wet weather system will arrive at the end of next week (around one week from today). Not much confidence in the details of that system, however. Lets get the Sunday-Monday storm system out of here and we can focus on that one.

TODAY: I will be speaking today to the 2nd graders at Deer Valley Elementary in Hoover; I will be in the office by early afternoon and the afternoon map discussion video will be up by 3:30. Will be interesting to see the 12Z run of the GFS for some clarity on the Monday severe weather potential...

Weather Brains episode SEVEN (our weekly 30 minute podcast) is on the server:

http://www.weatherbrains.com/

In this week's show:

- Alabama's March 13th severe weather event...
- How good of a job do radio stations do covering severe weather?
- The inside scoop on the Brian Peters blowout!
- The role amateur radio operators played during the December 16, 2000 tornado in Tuscaloosa...
- A Hurricane Katrina success story: Alabama ham radio operator Greg Sarratt tells of the work he and fellow hams did in Katrina's aftermath...
- Rebuilding after Katrina: Bill Murray shares his experiences revisiting the Mississippi coast...
- JB Elliott comes clean about doughnuts, Buffalo Rock and coffee...

The Thursday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:

http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb

We continue to watch a few sprinkles on the radar this afternoon, mostly south of U.S. 80. Most places around here won't see any rain tonight. And, a new surge of cool and dry air rolls in tonight. Tomorrow should be a sunny day with cooler temperatures.

THE WEEKEND: Clouds will slowly increase on Saturday, and rain should begin Saturday night. That will begin a very wet period, with 2 to 4 inches of rain likely here from Saturday night through Tuesday morning of next week. Sunday promises to be a chilly and wet day, with long periods of rain and temperatures in the 50 to 55 degree range. Not exactly "Chamber of Commerce" weather.

NEXT WEEK: Rain and thunderstorms are likely Monday. I am still doubtful that we see any severe weather around here due to marginal instability in the warm sector of the storm. And, I am not convinced we actually get in the warm sector. But, elevated thunderstorms are likely, and flash flooding could become an issue during the day.

The rain should taper off Monday night, but the 12Z GFS suggests the possibility of some light rain into Tuesday morning in the wrap around moisture on the back side of the system. Temperatures will be cooler on Tuesday, and there might even be some snow flurries up in Tennessee.

Wednesday and Thursday of next week should be cool and dry. Looks like a light freeze is a good possibility early Wednesday morning.

MORE RAIN: Another wet weather system should impact Alabama at the end of next week (around Friday March 24). The GFS looks different every run, but there could be some snow on the northern periphery of the system over Tennessee. And, yet another shot of chilly air moves in over the following weekend.

BOTTOM LINE: Forget those low 80s for a while. They might not return until the middle of April!

WEATHER BRAINS: David Black has finished putting this week's Weather Brains podcast together; I will have it shortly on iTunes, RSS, and on the web. I will post the link when I get it finished.

The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

The kids at Gaylesville School up in Cherokee County sure did a great job with hospitality yesterday! Check it out...

* 1 is the number of blowouts that Brian Peters has experienced while driving. Unfortunately it happened while storm chasing with the 33/40 weather van late Monday near Winfield. Fortunately, it was a rear tire and Brian brought it under control easily.

* 18 inches is how much snow has fallen at Layton, Utah in a week-long series of three storms. Matt Marshall, who lives there and frequently reads our material, said his commute from Layton to Salt Lake took two hours. That is only a 20-mile trip straight down I-15. Matt also happens to be a neighbor of my sister-in-law and her family.

* 3 is the dew point in Canadian, Texas in the Panhandle with brisk, dry NW winds. (Extremely, extremely dry) The wildfires (grass and brush fires) in the Texas Panhandle, are of grave concern. A number of towns may have to evacuate. Canadian is located on the Canadian River, which is often just a dry riverbed.

* 3 to 5 is the number of inches of snow expected in downtown Chicago this afternoon and evening with 4 to 8 inches a little further north closer to the Wisconsin border.

* 133 is the number of inches of snow on the ground at Alta, Utah this morning after about 15 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Alta is a ski area in the Wasatch Mountains.

* 40 is my estimate of how many basketball games Jason Simpson will watch on TV during March Madness.

* 71 is the percent of the earth's surface that is covered by water.

* 29 is the percent covered by land.

* 29,208 feet is the highest elevation on earth. (Mt. Everest)

* 1,312 feet BELOW SEA LEVEL is the lowest elevation on earth. (Dead Sea)

* 2,407 feeet is the highest elevation in Alabama. (Mt. Cheaha)

* 5 is the number of cups of coffee I have had today. The last one was cinnamon flavored. (semi-yuck. Forecast: Will probably pour the entire pot down the drain shortly.

* 88 is the number of people per square mile in Alabama. (population density)

* 5 is the number for Wyoming.

* 1 is the number for Alaska. That means Alabama has about 88 times more people per square mile than Alaska.

* 2 to 3 inches is the possible amount of rain Central Alabama will get, mainly during Sunday and Monday.

* 40 below zero was the low in Alaska this morning at Northway.

* 5 below was the low in Craig, Colorado, coldest in the lower 4 dozen.

* 85 was the warm spot yesterday in Ft. Myers, Florida.

* 0 is the number of times I have played with Little Miss Molly this morning and she does not like it in the least.