The Wednesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
This will be our last really "cool" day for a while. Maybe until October. I hope you enjoyed the cool snap.
RIGHT NOW: As forecast, scattered showers are in progress across the state. I just cheked our SKYCAM site at Mt. Cheaha... 60 degrees, light rain falling, and a west wind of 12 mph. Check it out:
http://www.abc3340.com/static/skycams/skycamsmain.html
All of the showers will end later tonight.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The big warm-up begins. We go into the upper 70s tomorrow, and 80 are likely by Friday. Most of Alabama should be dry tomorrow, and any showers late Friday afternoon should be isolated, and mainly north of Birmingham.
THE WEEKEND: The 12Z GFS continues to trend dry for the weekend. Looks like we can safely forecast a good supply of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday with very warm afternoons. The GFS MOS actually pushes us into the upper 80s; that might be a tad agressive. But, no doubt the weather will finally feel like late May over the weekend. With dewpoints in the 60s and that kind of warmth, I guess you can't rule out an afternoon shower, but if they do form they should be very isolated.
NEXT WEEK: The week should begin with dry and warm weather, but showers and storms should increase by Wednesday and Thursday as the southern edge of the westerlies will be over North Alabama.
TROPICS: While there have been hints of an early season tropical storm in the Gulf on some GFS runs, it really doesn't show up on the latest run(12Z). The 2006 "official" hurricane season begins in 15 days.
RAINBOW WATCH: I expect more rainbows to show up this evening in the Alabama sky... if you have a cool weather picture send them here:
weatherpix@abc3340.com
The next map discussion video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
A Warm-Up Ahead
May 17, 2006, 3:36 pmMore Scattered Showers Later Today
May 17, 2006, 5:47 am
The Wednesday morming map discussion video is on the server:
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Thanks for the great pictures from our blog readers last night... you see pictures posted anytime by selecting the "pictures" category on the blog:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/cat/wxtalk/15/Pictures
I expect to see more rainbow scenes this evening as the weather pattern remains the same... a big trough over the eastern U.S., and very cold air aloft over Alabama. Look for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and this evening; the chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in four.
WARMER DAYS: Heights will slowly rise across Alabama over the latter half of the week, which means a warming trend. We expect highs in the upper 70s tomorrow, and low 80s by Friday, as the mercury finally gets back to normal levels for this time of the year. Today will be the 13th day in a row with below normal temperatures, and we have reached 80 on only two days so far this month.
We will watch a surface front approaching from the north on Friday, but for now it looks like the best chance of showers will stay in Tennessee.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS continues to look pretty dry for the weekend. The surface boundary to the north fizzles out, and little if any rain shows up on the 00Z run. For now, we have just the chance of a few scattered or isolated showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Doesn't look like rain will be a problem. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s both days.
NEXT WEEK: At this time the weather for much of next week looks relatively dry and warm, with temperatures near normal. Toward the end of the week the westerlies (the main band of upper air winds over North America; the "stprm track" if you will) begins to lift northward as it usually does in late May. This will set the stage for warm and humid weather here, and the chance of "scattered, afternoon showers and thunderstorms", an almost daily part of our summer forecast routine.
TROPICS? The GFS continues to hint at some early season mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing to hang our hat on for now, but we will keep an eye on trends. Some runs have tried to develop a system down there in about 7 to 10 days, then drifting it northward in this direction. We will pretty much be watching developments over the Gulf between now and October. Tis the season.
I will have the afternoon video discussion posted by 3:30 this afternoon....
http://beta.abc3340.com/weather/video.hrb
Thanks for the great pictures from our blog readers last night... you see pictures posted anytime by selecting the "pictures" category on the blog:
http://www.jamesspann.com/bmachine/cat/wxtalk/15/Pictures
I expect to see more rainbow scenes this evening as the weather pattern remains the same... a big trough over the eastern U.S., and very cold air aloft over Alabama. Look for scattered showers and storms this afternoon and this evening; the chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in four.
WARMER DAYS: Heights will slowly rise across Alabama over the latter half of the week, which means a warming trend. We expect highs in the upper 70s tomorrow, and low 80s by Friday, as the mercury finally gets back to normal levels for this time of the year. Today will be the 13th day in a row with below normal temperatures, and we have reached 80 on only two days so far this month.
We will watch a surface front approaching from the north on Friday, but for now it looks like the best chance of showers will stay in Tennessee.
THE WEEKEND: The GFS continues to look pretty dry for the weekend. The surface boundary to the north fizzles out, and little if any rain shows up on the 00Z run. For now, we have just the chance of a few scattered or isolated showers in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Doesn't look like rain will be a problem. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s both days.
NEXT WEEK: At this time the weather for much of next week looks relatively dry and warm, with temperatures near normal. Toward the end of the week the westerlies (the main band of upper air winds over North America; the "stprm track" if you will) begins to lift northward as it usually does in late May. This will set the stage for warm and humid weather here, and the chance of "scattered, afternoon showers and thunderstorms", an almost daily part of our summer forecast routine.
TROPICS? The GFS continues to hint at some early season mischief in the Gulf of Mexico. Nothing to hang our hat on for now, but we will keep an eye on trends. Some runs have tried to develop a system down there in about 7 to 10 days, then drifting it northward in this direction. We will pretty much be watching developments over the Gulf between now and October. Tis the season.
I will have the afternoon video discussion posted by 3:30 this afternoon....
On The Road To Guin
May 16, 2006, 9:44 pm
Sure enjoyed the ride up to Guin yesterday, where I spoke to residents of the Sunset Manor retirement community. It was quite a festive event, the gang there had a big cook-out and I think everyone had a great time.
Getting to Guin is sure easy now with so much of the future I-22 corridor open. But, you know me, I still like the roads less traveled. I didn’t have much time yesterday, so it was straight up the Interstate to Guin. On the way back, however, I did come back to Birmingham via Alabama 269, a winding road from Jasper to Ensley that takes you through communities like Parrish, Copeland Ferry, Pumpkin Center, and Sylvan Springs. You cross over both the Mulberry and Locust Forks of the Black Warrior River, and get a pretty good look at the big operation at Birmingport, where a large volume of coal and other raw material is loaded on barges and sent down river to destinations all over the country and the world. If you try Alabama 269, be aware that large coal trucks are the rule rather than the exception, and you won’t be able to go anywhere in a hurry. But, I still love the drive and the view.
It was been 32 years since Guin was almost wiped out by one of the most violent tornadoes on record in the U.S. But, even to this date, every time I go to the Marion County town my mind drifts back to that big event on April 3, 1974. I was a senior in high school, but did many hours of volunteer work in communities like Guin and Jasper, and the images are still fresh on my mind to this date. A total of 23 people died in Guin that night, and dozens more were injured. The damage was catastrophic. But, the community grieved over the loss of life, and regrouped and rebuilt. In fact, a big revitalization project is underway now in the middle of town that will make Guin look better than ever!
See a great video on the Guin tornado of 1974, produced by Bill Castle and featuring our own J.B. Elliott, here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/static/weather/video/superoutbreak.wmv
Getting to Guin is sure easy now with so much of the future I-22 corridor open. But, you know me, I still like the roads less traveled. I didn’t have much time yesterday, so it was straight up the Interstate to Guin. On the way back, however, I did come back to Birmingham via Alabama 269, a winding road from Jasper to Ensley that takes you through communities like Parrish, Copeland Ferry, Pumpkin Center, and Sylvan Springs. You cross over both the Mulberry and Locust Forks of the Black Warrior River, and get a pretty good look at the big operation at Birmingport, where a large volume of coal and other raw material is loaded on barges and sent down river to destinations all over the country and the world. If you try Alabama 269, be aware that large coal trucks are the rule rather than the exception, and you won’t be able to go anywhere in a hurry. But, I still love the drive and the view.
It was been 32 years since Guin was almost wiped out by one of the most violent tornadoes on record in the U.S. But, even to this date, every time I go to the Marion County town my mind drifts back to that big event on April 3, 1974. I was a senior in high school, but did many hours of volunteer work in communities like Guin and Jasper, and the images are still fresh on my mind to this date. A total of 23 people died in Guin that night, and dozens more were injured. The damage was catastrophic. But, the community grieved over the loss of life, and regrouped and rebuilt. In fact, a big revitalization project is underway now in the middle of town that will make Guin look better than ever!
See a great video on the Guin tornado of 1974, produced by Bill Castle and featuring our own J.B. Elliott, here:
http://beta.abc3340.com/static/weather/video/superoutbreak.wmv
by James Spann
in On The Road
Etowah County Rainbow Pictures
May 16, 2006, 9:25 pm
More great rainbow pictures this evening from Matthew Olsen... these were near Hokes Bluff and Gadsden:
by James Spann
in Pictures
Blog Readers Come Through!
May 16, 2006, 9:21 pm
Thanks to our blog readers for some great images of weather this evening...
A nice rainbow picture taken at Vance in Tuscaloosa County.
I have done this many times myself while driving! A rainbow as seen from I-59/20 near the Birmingham Airport. Thanks to Matthew Olsen for this picture.
Looks like Matthew is about to find the pot of gold!
A small but strong storm produced this hail at Crestline tonight.
We watched the lightning from this storm on our Cheaha SKYCAM network camera. It was very impressive for a short time!
A nice rainbow picture taken at Vance in Tuscaloosa County.
I have done this many times myself while driving! A rainbow as seen from I-59/20 near the Birmingham Airport. Thanks to Matthew Olsen for this picture.
Looks like Matthew is about to find the pot of gold!
A small but strong storm produced this hail at Crestline tonight.
We watched the lightning from this storm on our Cheaha SKYCAM network camera. It was very impressive for a short time!
by James Spann
in Pictures
Rainbow Watch
May 16, 2006, 5:47 pm
Looks like another great evening for spotting rainbows... with scattered showers and broken clouds. If you get a good one on your digital camera, fire it our way:
weatherpix@abc3340.com
We will post any images we get here on the blog... had two real good ones last night from Hoover.
weatherpix@abc3340.com
We will post any images we get here on the blog... had two real good ones last night from Hoover.
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
A Few Showers Out There
May 16, 2006, 3:28 pm
The Tuesday afternoon map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
A very interesting discussion on Weather Brains this week about using "probability of precipitation" in a public forecast... check out the show:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
Bottom line is that nobody in this office likes POPs, and we rarely (and I really mean rarely) use them. I will write a long post on summer weather forecasting here in a few days...
SCATTERED SHOWERS: Looks like the radar has the measles this afternoon. A number of showers are on our screen, but they are small and widely spaced. The showers are in response to unstable air over Alabama, thanks to the cold upper trough over the eastern half of the nation. The air aloft is very cold, so despite the cool surface temperatures we still have convection going on.
The weather won't change much tomorrow. A few scattered showers; some good intervals of sunshine, and temperatures below normal for mid-May in Alabama.
WARMER DAYS: A warming trend begins on Thursday; we should reach the upper 70s Thursday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Low 80s seem likely by Friday.
WEEKEND THOUGHTS: The 12Z GFS has come in pretty dry for Saturday and Sunday in Alabama. The model keeps a surface boundary to the north of here over the weekend, and most of the showers stay in Tennessee. I am not convinced this is the correct solution; I still think a few scattered showers might show up here over the weekend. But, no big deal. No wash-out, and rainfall amounts should be light and spotty. Temperatures over the weekend should be close to normal for this time of the year, with low 80s each afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks rather uneventful, but the GFS develops something that looks like a tropical storm over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday (May 25), and moves it into Alabama and Georgia on Friday (May 26). Can a tropical system form in late May? Sure. But, the water is still a little cool; we checked buoy 42039 in the Gulf, about 120 miles southeast of Pensacola, and the water temperature was only 76.5 degrees (F) this afternoon. You really want to see those SSTs in the low 80s for a big tropical event. But, it is not out of the question.
Also keep in mind the GFS is famous for painting bogus tropical systems more than a week in advance. Lets wait and see.
Thanks to everyone in Guin for their hospitality today... I spoke to the residents of the Sunrise Manor retirement community. Nice of Mayor Phil Segraves to drop by; they are really working on a big renovation plan for downtown Guin that is coming along nicely. Tonight I will write a little more here about the trip and some thoughts on the 1974 F5 tornado that just about wiped out the town...
The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
A very interesting discussion on Weather Brains this week about using "probability of precipitation" in a public forecast... check out the show:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
Bottom line is that nobody in this office likes POPs, and we rarely (and I really mean rarely) use them. I will write a long post on summer weather forecasting here in a few days...
SCATTERED SHOWERS: Looks like the radar has the measles this afternoon. A number of showers are on our screen, but they are small and widely spaced. The showers are in response to unstable air over Alabama, thanks to the cold upper trough over the eastern half of the nation. The air aloft is very cold, so despite the cool surface temperatures we still have convection going on.
The weather won't change much tomorrow. A few scattered showers; some good intervals of sunshine, and temperatures below normal for mid-May in Alabama.
WARMER DAYS: A warming trend begins on Thursday; we should reach the upper 70s Thursday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Low 80s seem likely by Friday.
WEEKEND THOUGHTS: The 12Z GFS has come in pretty dry for Saturday and Sunday in Alabama. The model keeps a surface boundary to the north of here over the weekend, and most of the showers stay in Tennessee. I am not convinced this is the correct solution; I still think a few scattered showers might show up here over the weekend. But, no big deal. No wash-out, and rainfall amounts should be light and spotty. Temperatures over the weekend should be close to normal for this time of the year, with low 80s each afternoon.
NEXT WEEK: The first half of the week looks rather uneventful, but the GFS develops something that looks like a tropical storm over the northeast Gulf of Mexico by Thursday (May 25), and moves it into Alabama and Georgia on Friday (May 26). Can a tropical system form in late May? Sure. But, the water is still a little cool; we checked buoy 42039 in the Gulf, about 120 miles southeast of Pensacola, and the water temperature was only 76.5 degrees (F) this afternoon. You really want to see those SSTs in the low 80s for a big tropical event. But, it is not out of the question.
Also keep in mind the GFS is famous for painting bogus tropical systems more than a week in advance. Lets wait and see.
Thanks to everyone in Guin for their hospitality today... I spoke to the residents of the Sunrise Manor retirement community. Nice of Mayor Phil Segraves to drop by; they are really working on a big renovation plan for downtown Guin that is coming along nicely. Tonight I will write a little more here about the trip and some thoughts on the 1974 F5 tornado that just about wiped out the town...
The next map discussion video will be on the server bright and early tomorrow morning by 7:00 a.m.!
A May Chill
May 16, 2006, 8:05 am
A quick peek at lows around Alabama this morning:
Pinson 43
Concord 45
Alabaster 45
Cullman Airport 45
Vinemont 46
Munford 46
Tuscaloosa 46
Troy 46
Evergreen 46
Crossville 46
Desoto State Park 46
Helena 46
Cheaha State Park 47
Inverness 47
Birmingham Airport 48
Auburn 48
Huntsville 49
Mobile 49
Montgomery 49
Not bad for a mid-May morning in Alabama!
Pinson 43
Concord 45
Alabaster 45
Cullman Airport 45
Vinemont 46
Munford 46
Tuscaloosa 46
Troy 46
Evergreen 46
Crossville 46
Desoto State Park 46
Helena 46
Cheaha State Park 47
Inverness 47
Birmingham Airport 48
Auburn 48
Huntsville 49
Mobile 49
Montgomery 49
Not bad for a mid-May morning in Alabama!
WeatherBrains Episode 16
May 16, 2006, 6:04 am
This week's new version of our 30 minute WeatherBrains podcast is online:
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
In this week's podcast, we look at:
- POPs: Probabilities of Precipitation -- Helpful or totally confusing? We talk about why some forecasters make it a point to avoid them;
- The challenges of forecasting 'wedges' and other unusual temperature patterns;
- Too close for comfort: A Shelby county couple's lightning strike that left a trail of destruction...
WeatherBrains is also available on iTunes!
http://www.weatherbrains.com/
In this week's podcast, we look at:
- POPs: Probabilities of Precipitation -- Helpful or totally confusing? We talk about why some forecasters make it a point to avoid them;
- The challenges of forecasting 'wedges' and other unusual temperature patterns;
- Too close for comfort: A Shelby county couple's lightning strike that left a trail of destruction...
WeatherBrains is also available on iTunes!
by James Spann
in General Thoughts
Warmer Days Are Ahead
May 16, 2006, 5:56 am
The Tuesday morning map discussion video is on the server:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Watch the video today and see typhoon Chanchu, which is south of China. Guess it is almost time to pull out the tracking charts and pay attention to the tropics. Sustained winds in Chanchu are 115 knots, or 132 mph.
I lament the fact this is probably the last time my thermometer here will show temperatures in the 40s until sometime in October. I am at 49 degrees as I write this early this moming. Enjoy it while we have it... the long, hot, hazy, and humid days of summer are fast appoaching. In fact, it is about time to write two of my annual blog posts: Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches, and the annual primer on summer weather forecasting in Alabama. They will be posted here within one to two weeks.
I will try to post a list of morning lows here a little later this morning.
THE BIG SWIRL: A massive upper low continues to cover much of the eastern half of the nation. This will keep temperatures will below normal around here through tomorrow, and it will also mean a chance of scattered showers. Nothing heavy, and it won't rain everywhere. Just keep in mind a few raindrops are possible.
Interesting to note today will be the 12th day in a row with below normal temperatures, and the 12th day in a row with temperatures below 80 degrees. The mercury has exceeded 80 on only two days so far this month (May 3 and 4). Pretty amazing.
WARMER DAYS: We begin to warm up later in the week; we should reach the upper 70s on Thursday, with low 80s likely Friday. A few showers could show up late Friday or Friday night thanks to a front approaching from the north.
WEEKEND UPDATE: The 00Z GFS keeps the surface boundary stalled over the northern part of Alabama, which means a chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday. If you have something planned outdoors, don't panic. The rain won't be heavy or continuous, and amounts should be light. Just keep in mind a few scattered showers could show up over the weekend. High temperatures will be close to 80 degrees on both days.
NEXT WEEK: The maps look more like May as the westerlies shift northward, and our weather becomes warm and humid. Scattered showers or storms could show up by Tuesday or Wednesday.
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows a typical late May pattern in the May 26-31 time frame. The main upper air winds are well to the north, and we become a graveyard for cold fronts. Each front that drifts in here stalls and fizzles out. And, those decaying fronts can bring some pretty generous rain from time to time with a deep southerly flow of moisture (despite the lack of upper dynamics) coming around the west side of the Bermuda high.
BUSY DAY: Looking forwad to driving up to Guin today. That town will always be linked to one of Alabama's most deadly and violent tornadoes... over 20 were killed there and the Marion County town was just about wiped out during the Superoutbreak on April 3, 1974. I will be speaking to the residents at Sunset Manor there. I hope to have the afternoon map discussion video posted on time by 3:30...
We recorded a new WeatherBrains podcast last night... I will post that shortly!
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Watch the video today and see typhoon Chanchu, which is south of China. Guess it is almost time to pull out the tracking charts and pay attention to the tropics. Sustained winds in Chanchu are 115 knots, or 132 mph.
I lament the fact this is probably the last time my thermometer here will show temperatures in the 40s until sometime in October. I am at 49 degrees as I write this early this moming. Enjoy it while we have it... the long, hot, hazy, and humid days of summer are fast appoaching. In fact, it is about time to write two of my annual blog posts: Spann's Best Way To The Bama Beaches, and the annual primer on summer weather forecasting in Alabama. They will be posted here within one to two weeks.
I will try to post a list of morning lows here a little later this morning.
THE BIG SWIRL: A massive upper low continues to cover much of the eastern half of the nation. This will keep temperatures will below normal around here through tomorrow, and it will also mean a chance of scattered showers. Nothing heavy, and it won't rain everywhere. Just keep in mind a few raindrops are possible.
Interesting to note today will be the 12th day in a row with below normal temperatures, and the 12th day in a row with temperatures below 80 degrees. The mercury has exceeded 80 on only two days so far this month (May 3 and 4). Pretty amazing.
WARMER DAYS: We begin to warm up later in the week; we should reach the upper 70s on Thursday, with low 80s likely Friday. A few showers could show up late Friday or Friday night thanks to a front approaching from the north.
WEEKEND UPDATE: The 00Z GFS keeps the surface boundary stalled over the northern part of Alabama, which means a chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday. If you have something planned outdoors, don't panic. The rain won't be heavy or continuous, and amounts should be light. Just keep in mind a few scattered showers could show up over the weekend. High temperatures will be close to 80 degrees on both days.
NEXT WEEK: The maps look more like May as the westerlies shift northward, and our weather becomes warm and humid. Scattered showers or storms could show up by Tuesday or Wednesday.
LONG RANGE: The GFS shows a typical late May pattern in the May 26-31 time frame. The main upper air winds are well to the north, and we become a graveyard for cold fronts. Each front that drifts in here stalls and fizzles out. And, those decaying fronts can bring some pretty generous rain from time to time with a deep southerly flow of moisture (despite the lack of upper dynamics) coming around the west side of the Bermuda high.
BUSY DAY: Looking forwad to driving up to Guin today. That town will always be linked to one of Alabama's most deadly and violent tornadoes... over 20 were killed there and the Marion County town was just about wiped out during the Superoutbreak on April 3, 1974. I will be speaking to the residents at Sunset Manor there. I hope to have the afternoon map discussion video posted on time by 3:30...
We recorded a new WeatherBrains podcast last night... I will post that shortly!