The Monday morning map discussion video is available on the web, and on iTunes:
http://www.jamesspann.com/
Be sure and scroll down to read Bill Murray's story about the commuter jet crash in Ensley on this date in 1991... very interesting; I might share some thoughts about that event later today or tonight here on the blog.
THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: This is the time of year when weather changes are very slow in coming across the Deep South. The main day to day difference involves the frequency and placement of afternoon showers and storms. Model data today suggests precipitatable water values at Birmingham to be around 1.80" to 1.90", and 500 mb temps around -7 degrees (C) this afternoon. This should support afternoon showers or storms, but the rain won't fall everywhere. Hopefully you can catch a good shower today, because they should thin out for the rest of the week as warmer air aloft makes for a more stable atmosphere.
And, as the showers and storms thin out, heat levels will be rising. We should be in the mid 90s during the latter half of the week, and with higher dewpoints the heat won't exactly be comfortable. We will continue to mention the chance of a passing afternoon storm late this week, but they should be very widely scattered.
The upper ridge begins to shift to the west of Alabama late in the coming weekend and early next week, and that should mean a slow increase in the number of afternoon showers and storms.
TROPICAL WEATHER: We are watching the interesting wave about halfway between the Windward Islands and the coast of Africa... the wave is moving to the west with no signs of any development at this point. That seems to be the first real African wave of the season with some potential for survival. The system east of the Bahamas is a circulation aloft, and a surface based low is not expected.
LONG RANGE: Nothing really stands out on the 00Z GFS... the weather looks pretty typical here for the rest of July. Hot and humid, at least a chance of an afternoon storm on a daily basis.
I will have the next map discussion video posted by 3:30 this afternoon....
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