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Only Isolated Showers Through Friday

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 09/02/2015 - 15:26

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers are few and far between across the great state of Alabama this afternoon…

There a few storms at mid-afternoon southwest of Tuscaloosa… they are moving very slowly to the northeast. All of the showers and storms will dissipate soon after dark.

Birmingham reports only 86 degrees at 3:00… looks like today will be the 18th consecutive day with a high below 90.

BUT… late data shows the temperature did briefly reach 90 degrees at the Birmingham Airport today, so the sub-90 degree day streak ends at 17.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: The high will be close to 90 degrees both days with a partly sunny sky, and a few widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms are possible. The chance of any one spot getting wet both days is only in the 15-25 percent range.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: The weather won’t change much. The latest model data suggests any afternoon showers or thunderstorms Saturday will remain widely scattered, with potential for a slight increase in coverage Sunday and Monday. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid to upper 80s.

The weather pretty much stays the same into the middle of next week.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night and Friday night, just a small risk of a passing shower or storm during the first half of the games; otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling from near 80 degrees at kickoff, into the mid to upper 70s by the final whistle.

Alabama and Auburn kick off the college season Saturday with road games, and both will be played in venues where rain won’t be an issue one way or another. Auburn against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Dry inside, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s.. cooling down into the 70s Saturday night. No need to bring the retractable roof over the stadium with a clear sky.

BEACH WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores tomorrow through the Labor Day weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs stay in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Fred is becoming post-tropical in the far eastern Atlantic this afternoon, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet. No tropical storm issues for the U.S. coast over the Labor Day weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Hotter Afternoons; Isolated Showers

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 09/02/2015 - 06:19

MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY RISING: High resolution model data hints a few isolated showers could form during the afternoon and evening hours across Alabama today; chance of any one spot seeing one of them is about one in eight. Otherwise, today will be partly sunny with a high close to 90 degrees. Very possible Birmingham’s 17 day streak of sub-90 degree highs will come to an end.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Not much change. Partly sunny days; widely scattered afternoon and evening showers with highs close to 90 degrees. Most of the showers, where they do form, will come from about 2:00 until 8:00 p.m.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Moisture levels will be a little higher, so afternoon and evening showers and storms should be a little more numerous, especially Sunday. Otherwise, mixed sun and clouds Saturday through Monday with highs dropping back into the mid to upper 80s. The chance of any one spot seeing a passing shower or storm will be in the 30-40 percent range, with highest odds Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Sufficient moisture will remain for the risk of a few scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers through the week… otherwise partly sunny days with highs in the 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for details and all the graphics.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Alabama and Auburn kick off the season Saturday with road games, and both will be played in venues where rain won’t be an issue one way or another. Auburn against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Dry inside, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s.. cooling down into the 70s Saturday night. No need to bring the retractable roof over the stadium with a clear sky.

BEACH WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather on the Gulf Coast today from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… then about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily tomorrow through the Labor Day weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs stay in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Fred, in the far eastern Atlantic, will dissipate in 3 to 5 days over open water, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a safety program today at the Gaston Steam Plant in Wilsonville… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Mostly Dry Through Thursday; Hotter

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 09/01/2015 - 15:29

RADAR CHECK: As expected, not a single shower on radar across North/Central Alabama this afternoon. The sky is partly to mostly sunny, and temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Looks like today will be the 17th consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees for Birmingham.

TO THE SOUTH: The “ghost” of former Tropical Storm Erika is over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, but redevelopment is not likely due to harsh upper air winds, and that won’t impact us in any way.

REST OF THE WEEK: The high tomorrow will be close to 90, with low 90s possible Thursday and Friday as an upper ridge stays in place. Days will be partly sunny, and we will mention the risk of widely scattered showers Thursday and Friday afternoon, but many communities will stay dry.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Moisture levels will rise, and we will forecast “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Saturday and Sunday, then becoming fewer in number Monday. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and the chance of any one spot getting wet will be about one in three Saturday and Sunday, and one in four Monday. Highs drop back into the mid to upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Things look relatively quiet; showers should be widely spaced, days partly sunny, and highs in the 80s/lows in the 60s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Alabama and Auburn kick off the season Saturday with road games, and both will be played in venues where rain won’t be an issue one way or another. Auburn against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Dry inside, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s.. cooling down into the 70s Saturday night. No need to bring the retractable roof over the stadium with a clear sky.

BEACH WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather on the Gulf Coast tomorrow from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… then about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily Thursday through the Labor Day weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs stay in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Afternoons Trending Hotter

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 09/01/2015 - 06:17

MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK: With an upper ridge building across the eastern part of the nation, we expect a rather quiet weather pattern for the next few days across Alabama with hotter afternoons. The high today will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, followed by low 90s tomorrow through Friday. Days will be partly to mostly sunny, nights will be mostly fair. Moisture levels will rise toward the end of the week, and we will bring in the chance of widely scattered afternoon and evening showers Friday.

Birmingham has gone 16 consecutive days with a high below 90 degrees… that streak will come to an end at some point this week, most likely tomorrow.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: We will need to mention the chance of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” Saturday through Monday with a moist airmass in place under an upper high north of the state, otherwise a mix of sun and clouds each day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon is about one in three, with perhaps slightly lower odds Monday.

NEXT WEEK: Looks pretty quiet; we could see a few scattered showers around, but otherwise partly sunny days, fair nights, highs in the 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEATHER: Alabama and Auburn kick off the season Saturday with road games, and both will be played in venues where rain won’t be an issue one way or another. Auburn against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome. Dry inside, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s.. cooling down into the 70s Saturday night. No need to bring the retractable roof over the stadium with a clear sky.

BEACH WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather on the Gulf Coast today and tomorrow from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… then about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily Thursday through the Labor Day weekend, with the usual risk of a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Highs stay in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Fred, in the far eastern Atlantic just northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has weakened to a tropical storm, and should dissipate over open water in 4-5 days. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quit.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking to a group of senior adults today at Ridgewood Health Care Center in Jasper… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 502: Talking Aviation and Weather

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 09/01/2015 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 502 is now online (August 31, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Our special guests this week are Paul Suffern and Brian Soper. They bring a wealth of knowledge on aviation weather which is our topic of this show.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Island Park, ID
  • Three Hurricanes in the Pacific and struggling Fred in the Atlantic
  • And Fred has degenerated to a tropical storm
  • Weather somewhat calm with no severe weather risks
  • Hot weather developing for the Central US
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer has been shirking her duties, so she’ll try to catch up on the messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: This episode wraps up our look at storm surge by taking a look at the vulnerability of the United States. And the level of vulnerability may be surprising to many.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 502:

The Pickle Juice web page

NTSB web site

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

ForeFlight app web page

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – How to start a hurricane

Brian Peters – 10 Years After Katrina, pictorial scrapbook

John Scala – US Coastlines Vulnerability to Hurricanes

Kevin Selle – Katrina: Then and Now

Rick Smith – Why Today was the End of Meteorological Summer

James Spann – Tropical Cyclones – a Satellite Perspective

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Women in the Weather Bureau during WW II

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 502: Talking Aviation and Weather

WeatherBrains - Tue, 09/01/2015 - 04:45

WeatherBrains Episode 502 is now online (August 31, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Our special guests this week are Paul Suffern and Brian Soper. They bring a wealth of knowledge on aviation weather which is our topic of this show.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

      • Extremes: 112 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Island Park, ID
      • Three Hurricanes in the Pacific and struggling Fred in the Atlantic
      • And Fred has degenerated to a tropical storm
      • Weather somewhat calm with no severe weather risks
      • Hot weather developing for the Central US
      • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
      • and more!

Our email bag officer has been shirking her duties, so she’ll try to catch up on the messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: This episode wraps up our look at storm surge by taking a look at the vulnerability of the United States. And the level of vulnerability may be surprising to many.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 502:

The Pickle Juice web page

NTSB web site

Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)

ForeFlight app web page

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – How to start a hurricane

Brian Peters – 10 Years After Katrina, pictorial scrapbook

John Scala – US Coastlines Vulnerability to Hurricanes

Kevin Selle – Katrina: Then and Now

Rick Smith – Why Today was the End of Meteorological Summer

James Spann – Tropical Cyclones – a Satellite Perspective

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Women in the Weather Bureau during WW II

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Mostly Dry Through Mid-Week

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/31/2015 - 15:34

RADAR CHECK: Showers are almost impossible to find on radar this afternoon across the great state of Alabama; a few isolated showers remain possible through the evening, but most communities will be rain-free. Temperatures are in the 80s; today is the 16th consecutive day with a high below 90 degrees at Birmingham.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: An upper ridge will build, meaning hotter afternoons and few showers. We can probably just remove any risk of rain tomorrow and Wednesday; expect a good supply of sunshine both days through scattered clouds with a high not too far from 90 degrees. Any afternoon showers or thunderstorms Thursday and Friday will be pretty widely spaced, otherwise we will have a mixture of sun and clouds both days, and the high will remain close to 90 degrees.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Moisture levels will increase, so we will have to deal with scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. The chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be about one in three, and afternoon highs will drop back into the mid to upper 80s. There will be some good intervals of sunshine each day, but just be ready for a passing shower or storm from time to time.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: College football begins this weekend. Auburn opens up at home against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, so we can promise no rain for the game, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s… cooling down into the 70s Saturday night.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks cooler, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, with some risk of scattered showers. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather on the coast today and tomorrow from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… then about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily Wednesday through the Labor Day weekend, along with the risk of a few scattered thunderstorms daily. No tropical storms or depressions to worry about. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Hurricane Fred is in the far eastern Atlantic around the Cape Verde Islands with 85 mph winds; it will slowly weaken in coming days as it moves northeast, and is expected to dissipate over the Central Atlantic in about five days. No threat to land.

Over in the Pacific, Hurricane Ignacio will pass north of the Hawaiian Islands in coming days..

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Relatively Quiet Weather This Week

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/31/2015 - 06:26

STILL BELOW 90: The last time the high at Birmingham was 90 degrees or higher was back on August 15… and with a projected high today in the mid 80s, it should be the 16th consecutive day under 90 degrees. A remarkable run for August in Alabama. Yesterday’s high in Birmingham was only 74 degrees… making the coolest day of the month, and 15 degrees below average.

The upper low that brought the unsettled weather to the state over the weekend has lifted northeast of the state, so today will be drier with only widely scattered showers, mainly over the eastern counties. We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds with a high between 83 and 86 degrees. Nice way to wrap up meteorological summer.

REST OF THE WEEK: Relatively quiet weather continues, and temperatures trend hotter. Afternoon highs will rise to near 90 degrees each day; the sky will be partly sunny, and any afternoon showers or storms will be very isolated. We could begin to see an increase in the number of showers late in the week as moisture levels begin to rise.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND: With moisture levels on the rise, we will have to mention scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds with afternoons highs in the mid to upper 80s Saturday through Monday. Pretty much what you expect over the Labor Day weekend in Alabama.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Yep, college football begins this weekend. Auburn opens up at home against Louisville; the game is Saturday at 2:30 in Atlanta in the Georgia Dome, so we can promise no rain for the game, but outside the dome showers are possible with afternoon temperatures in the 80s. Alabama will take on Wisconsin Saturday night at 7:00 (the game is on ABC 33/40) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas… the day will be sunny and hot in the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex with a high in the mid 90s… cooling down into the 70s Saturday night.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks cooler, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s, with some risk of scattered showers. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny weather on the coast today and tomorrow from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores… then about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily Wednesday through the Labor Day weekend, along with the risk of a few scattered thunderstorms daily. No tropical storms or depressions to worry about. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

TROPICS: Fred in the far eastern Atlantic is now a category one hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands… it will move northwest in coming days, and should weaken later this week as it encounters dry and and shear. No threat to the U.S.

The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet, but over in the Pacific things are rocking with three hurricanes…

The one closest to Hawaii, Ignacio, will pass north of the islands and slowly weaken this week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7” on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Sunday Showers

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/30/2015 - 12:34

The upper low that has been spinning along the northern Gulf Coast for the past few days has moved northeast and is located directly over Central Alabama early this afternoon.

Looking at a composite radar loop of the area, you can make out the spin in the atmosphere.

A solid band of showers marks the western edge of the low’s center with developing showers growing down US-280 from the Birmingham area to around Auburn and Lanett. More storms were developing around Selma. These showers and storms will continue to grow in coverage and intensity as we go through the afternoon in an area of decent instability. CAPE values are running over 2,000 j/kg ni this region.

Drier air is wrapping around the low across southwestern and southern Alabama, allowing some sunshine to return to areas south of Clanton.

Temperatures in places like Montgomery and Auburn have reached 80F. To the north, in the clouds, readings are still in the 70s, and will have a hard time making it very much if at all into the 80s.

Showers should thin out over the next three to four days as

FRED: Tropical Depression Six formed just after midnight this morning and was upgraded to Tropical Storm Fred just a few hours later. Now it appears that it will reach hurricane intensity before it reaches the Cape Verde Islands tomorrow. You’ve heard of the Cape Verdes. We name all the big hurricanes that form in the far eastern Atlantic Cape Verde storms. While many tropical cyclones form near there, few actually affect their namesake islands. Today, the first ever Hurricane Warning has been issued for the islands. The thought of a storm this strong this far out sounds ominous, but it doesn’t appear we will have to worry. Fred should move far enough northwest before turning west to stay well north of the islands of the Caribbean.

Categories: Weather

A Look at Fred

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/30/2015 - 11:21

Somehow, I just can’t get too excited about the tropical storm named Fred. I have nothing against the name, but “Fred” just doesn’t sound very mean or menacing like tropical storms are supposed to be. Here’s a look at a visible image of Fred I grabbed from the NOAA Satellite and Information Service.

The Meteorological Service of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cape Verde Islands. This replaces the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch that were previously in effect for them.

At 11:00 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 19.9 West. Fred was moving toward the northwest near 12 mph and this motion was expected to continue through Tuesday. On this forecast track, the center of Fred is expected to move through the Cape Verde Islands on Monday through early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Fred was forecast to become a hurricane before reaching the Cape Verde Islands on Monday.

Here’s the forecast track graphic from the National Hurricane Center.

Fortunately, other than the Cape Verde Islands, Fred is only a threat to shipping.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Sunday Showers; Six to Fred

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/30/2015 - 07:18

Widespread showers developed on Saturday afternoon along the north and eastern periphery of an upper low over the northern Gulf Coast. About 40% of Central Alabama received measurable rain, and about 20% received over one inch of rain. Some areas like eastern Winston and eastern St. Clair Counties picked up over three inches of rain.

EARLY MORNING RADAR CHECK: Kudos to the RPM, the high resolution short range model that correctly saw this morning’s showers that are pitter pattering across Central Alabama. Already 0.17″ of rain in my rain gauge in Vestavia this morning.

SIDEWALK SUNDAY: For the thousands of folks headed downtown today for the Sidewalk Film Festival, there will be scattered showers and storms to dodge, so a small umbrella might not be a bad thing to have along. Having said that, the day will not be a washout by any means. Skies will start out mostly cloudy, with increasing sunshine across western and southern parts of the area during the day. The Northeast stays cloudier most of the day though, holding their temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. Spots with more sunshine will be in the upper 80s.

LET THE THINNING BEGIN: A general trend toward drier is beginning today and will continue into Monday with very few if any, in the way of showers and storms. This will be courtesy of the trough retreating westward a bit and a slightly drier atmosphere. More sunshine will be the rule, and so will warmer temperatures. Readings on Monday will run some 3-4 degrees higher than those of today.

LET THE THINNING CONTINUE: The trend toward drier today will continue into Monday with very few if any, in the way of showers and storms. This will be courtesy of the trough retreating westward a bit and a slightly drier atmosphere. More sunshine will be the rule, and so will warmer temperatures. Readings on Monday will run some 3-4 degrees higher than those of today.
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TUESDAY AND BEYOND: The subtropical ridge off the East Coast of Florida is acting as a moisture pump, producing lots of showers and storms from the eastern Gulf of Mexico across the Florida Peninsula. In that mess of moisture will be the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika, which dissipated on Saturday. Most of the Sunshine State will get at least two inches of rain in the upcoming five days. Parts of the state will see over four inches. All of this will stay well to the east of Alabama. In fact, we will see only isolated showers and storms across Central Alabama Tuesday through Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows near 70F, pretty much normal for this time of year.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK: Indications are that another upper low will develop near New Orleans by Friday. This could provide a sort of repeat performance of this weekend, with increased showers and storms. While the weekend won’t be a washout, we will have to avoid some showers and storms at our events, including football games, lake trips and barbecues. A look at temperatures over the next two weeks shows the annual pilgrimmage back toward the middle 60s for mid-September.

IN THE TROPICS: Of course, Labor Day is very near the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season. It is very rare not to have an active tropical cyclone ongoing on Labor Day. Could this be such a year? It is too early to tell. Tropical Depression Six formed early this morning in the far eastern Atlantic and on the 4 a.m. Advisory package, it has already gotten a name. Tropical Storm Fred is so far east it is actually east of the Cape Verde Islands. It is rare for storms to form that far east. Not unprecedented, but rare. The last tropical storm I could find that directly impacted the islands was Beryl in 1982. Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch are in effect there for Monday.

It will remain on a general westward course, steered by the semi-permanent feature in the middle of the Atlantic, the Bermuda High. But, Fred will stay north of the Caribbean.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Indications now are that showers and storms will remain east of most of the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida, with the axis of moisture covering the state of Florida. Beach communities from Dauphin Island to Gulf Shores/Orange Beach, Pensacola, Fort Walton, Destin and Panama City should enjoy 8-10 hours of sun each day with only about a 20 percent chance of a shower or storm each day. Rain chances could be a little higher the closer that you get to Panama City. Highs will be near 90F. Lows will be in the middle 70s. Water temperatures are running 83-84F at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab. The rip current risk will be low this week, with most of the storms staying well to the east.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHERBRAINS: This week, the panel celebrated its 500th show with a litany of special messages from friends of the podcast. Check out the program at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live each Monday night at 8:30 p.m. CDT at live.bigbrainsmedia.com. You will be able to see the show in the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

ON THIS DATE IN 1985: Massive evacuations were ordered from beachfront communities along the northern Gulf Coast as a strengthening Hurricane Elena made her move toward the coast just before a busy Labor Day weekend. But as the day wore on, Elena stalled and then turned abruptly to the east in response to a frontal trough. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Categories: Weather

Storms for Some

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:43

Alabama appears to be the big winner today as far as the clouds, showers, and storms; they are affecting our state more than any other southeastern state. Numerous and widespread showers and storms continue to impact many locations as they track from southeast to northwest this afternoon. Storms are producing some gusty winds, lots of lightning, and heavy rainfall. No severe weather is expected, but we could see a few isolated reports of flooding due to the slow movement of the storms. These showers and storms will continue through the evening and into the overnight hours.

Because of the increased cloud cover this afternoon, and where the rain is falling, we are seeing cooler temps and many locations have fallen back down into the 70s. However, where it is not raining, we continue to see upper 80s and lower 90s. Tonight, we should all settle back down into the lower 70s.

SUNDAY: We will see a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow, and we will continue to mention the chance for showers and storms, however, the coverage will be a bit less. You may have to dodge a few rain drops tomorrow, and if heading out to church in the morning, I would grab the rain gear just to be safe. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 80s, but where the rain falls, 70s can be expected.

ERIKA NO MORE: Well wind shear and land have helped finish Erika off and she is nothing more than an open wave. This afternoon, wind shear continues to rip apart the remnants of the system. The general movement of the remnants is towards the northwest and the Gulf of Mexico. Will it redevelop, we don’t think so, the Gulf of Mexico is a highly sheared environment right now, and not at all favorable for tropical cyclone development, but of course there is always a chance. Regardless of re-development, the remnants of Erika are expected to spread locally heavy rains and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba, and central and southern Florida during the next couple of days.

Categories: Weather

Showers & Storms

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:07

Widespread showers and storms are ongoing across much of North-Central Alabama this afternoon. No severe storms, but storms today are producing gobs of lightning, and the slow movement is allowing for very heavy rainfall. There may be a few areas of localized flooding under some of the storms. However, not everyone will see rain today.

General movement of storms today is from the southeast to the northwest. These showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and evening, and some showers will continue through the overnight as well.

Categories: Weather

Rain For South Florida

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/29/2015 - 10:27

While nobody wants to be hit by a tropical storm or hurricane, there is no doubt that these systems do provide some needed assistance. Tropical weather systems can produce moderate to heavy rain events which help ease drought conditions. Of course, we want and look for a good soaking and not too much rain to produce flooding. As the map below shows, South Florida is rated a D3, or extreme drought, so they can really use a good soaking event.

According to projections by HPC, Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, Florida could see on the order to 3 to 5 inches (see map below) over the next five days. As long as that rain does not come down all at once, but is spread out over much of the next 3 to 4 days, it should help to ease the drought conditions currently affecting South Florida.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Bye Bye Erika

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/29/2015 - 08:16

Tropical Storm Erika has completely fallen apart this morning, the victim of wind shear and the mountainous terrain of the island of Hispaniola.

Reconnaissance into the storm was unable to find evidence of a closed circulation.

The system will continue northwest into the Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy rain to the Florida Peninsula and the Gulf Coast. Regeneration does not look likely.

Categories: Weather

Showers Likely

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/29/2015 - 06:57

Let me start off by stating that my confidence in this forecast is not particularly good! Why, you may ask? Well, we’ve got a tropical storm that the models have not been handling well in either intensity or track. Add to that the presence of a weak upper low spinning in the vicinity of Mobile, and you come up with a low confidence factor considering the weak intensity of all of these features. But, we dive into what we’ve got knowing that we’ll probably have to make adjustments down the road – but that’s the nature of meteorology!

A weak upper low was situated above Mobile early this morning, and that weak upper low will be spinning for the next several days as it meanders around the northern Gulf coast and the Lower Mississippi River Valley. It should provide enough lift over Central Alabama to make showers and thunderstorms likely this afternoon and evening. Showers were few and far between this morning, but as the day wears on, I think we’ll see showers become more numerous with increased coverage. Temperatures should stay down somewhat because of the presence of clouds and showers with highs in the middle 80s.

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is not forecasting any areas of severe weather today with only marginal areas in parts of South and Southwest Florida because of the presence of Erika – or what may be left of Erika.

If you have plans to head to the beaches of Southwest Alabama and Northwest Florida you will have to contend with daily shower chances for the week ahead. Temperatures along the beach from Dauphin Island to Apalachicola will be mainly in the upper 80s with morning lows in the middle 70s. Sea water temperature was running in the lower 80s with 85 being reported at Dauphin Island.

Then there’s Erika. Erika continues to defy forecasters as it moves nearly due west overnight. Erika remained disorganized as it continued to fight a hostile environment with substantial wind shear as well as the problems associated with moving over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The present projected track also means that Erika will have to deal with continued interaction with land as it basically moves northwestward right along Cuba. Erika is not presenting much of a wind or surge threat, fortunately, however, Erika presents a big threat in the heavy rainfall it will produce which may trigger landslides in Hispaniola and Cuba. If you can, read the forecast discussion from NHC which is peppered with words like “low confidence” and “difficult to locate.” NHC also did not issue any kind of watch or warning for Florida because of the tremendous uncertainty in the forecast of Erika, but I do expect to see some type of watch or advisory issued later today. Hopefully, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Erika later this morning and that data will help provide a clearer picture of Erika’s physical condition.

Getting back to the GFS and Central Alabama, moisture levels drop somewhat as seen by precipitable water charts, so the level and coverage of showers should drop back after today and Sunday. It will be difficult if not downright improbable to be able to pick which days have the best chances of rain. The weak upper low will meander around the Lower Mississippi Valley for much of the week ahead plus we’ll have to contend with Erika, where it goes and just how strong it will be. So the forecast for much of the week ahead will include a mention of showers as a possibility nearly every day.

The good news from this scenario is that temperatures should stay mainly in the 80s. We could hit 90 or 91 again but that will depend on just how much cloud cover we have and how many showers develop in the heat of the afternoon.

The forecast uncertainty is not limited to the GFS guidance either. I browsed through a little of the ECMWF output and found that it, too, was having trouble discerning a track for Erika.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on our weather today, so you can check back here for later updates on what the weather holds for us. The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted here on Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms Over Southern Metro

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/28/2015 - 20:29

Strong storms over northern Shelby County near Pelham are moving northwest into the southern part of Jefferson County.

The peach colored polygon is a Significant Weather Alert.

They are not severe, but they are causing lots of lightning. The thunder is very loud. Rain is torrential as well, potentially causing some minor flash flooding.

It is affecting the Hoover HS game at the Met right now. Same for the Pelham-Thompson game.

It will take at least half an hour for the storm to move out of the area.

Categories: Weather

Scattered Showers/Storms Return

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/28/2015 - 15:32

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today due to travel**

RADAR CHECK: A few small, isolated showers have formed this afternoon, mostly south and east of Birmingham.

These showers will end soon after sunset, and most high school football stadiums won’t have any rain issues tonight.

Birmingham reports 86 degrees at 2:00… looks like today will be the 13th consecutive day with a high under 90 degrees.

THE WEEKEND: Moisture levels will deepen, and we will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds both days. While most of the showers will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower or two. Highs over the weekend will be mostly in the mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: We expect only widely scattered showers Monday through Wednesday with partly sunny days and highs between 87 and 90 degrees. The 12Z GFS hints that showers and storms could become more numerous by Thursday and Friday with deeper moisture.

ERIKA: The tropical storm, just south of Hispaniola, remains very disorganized this afternoon.

With continued wind shear, and interaction with the mountainous island, there is a very real chance that Erika won’t survive the next 12 hours.

If it does hang on, the ultimate track will be determined by it’s strength. If the system can get it’s act together and become better organized, it should turn northward into the Florida Peninsula by Monday, staying below hurricane strength (which is the official NHC track).

If the system remains a closed low, but stays weak and disorganized, the low level swirl will move into the Gulf of Mexico. There, the system will encounter 30 to 40 knots of deep layer shear, meaning it will most likely dissipate without bothering anyone.

One way or another this, most likely, won’t be an issue for Alabama. Here is the latest NHC track.

We will keep an close eye on it over the weekend, of course.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We are projecting about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City Beach to Gulf Shores through early next week with a few scattered storms possible; highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, with sea water temperatures in the mid 80s.

A little early for a specific Labor Day weekend forecast, but for now we don’t see anything to suggest high rain coverage. No signs of any tropical issues.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday… my next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Good News About Our State from Our Friends at Alabama NewsCenter

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/28/2015 - 15:08

Here are some of our favorite stories from our partners at Alabama NewsCenter from this past week, August 21 – 27, 2015.

Can’t Miss Alabama: This week’s summertime favorites include jazz, expos and a film festival – Here’s a look at the hottest happenings across the state this weekend.

 

Sidewalk Film Festival’s 17th year more diverse, local at same time – Films from more than two dozen countries join large Alabama-produced slate.

 

Homewood restaurant owners turn Katrina tragedy into triumph – A decade after hurricane, couple finds recipe for recovery in Alabama.

 

Katrina took her home in Mississippi, now she sells them in Birmingham – “I realize how hard it is to lose everything and not have a home of your own.” – Pye Parson

 

Blown from New Orleans by Katrina, family puts down roots in Alabama’s Wiregrass – Harolyn Benjamin went from helping others to being helped and is now helping others again.

 

Jasper couple left New Orleans, but the city has never left them – Kilgores now share a taste of Louisiana through Black Rock Bistro.

 

Regions Field attendance tops 400,000 for second straight season – Barons reach milestone in consecutive seasons for first time in more than 60 years.

 

Alabama Bright Lights: Curtis Saucier pays the love forward – “God gives special kids to special people.” – Curtis Saucier.

 

Russellville rocket team sets sights on NASA Student Launch program – Victory fuels the desire to compete in another major competition.

 

Brighter Minds: “Raising the bar by raising your hand” – “Education is the key to opening every door.” Margaret Morton, Sylacauga Alliance for Family Enhancement

 

Motley: Changing the trajectory of education in Alabama requires engagement – Aspen Institute leader knows the importance of support.

 

How Alabama is matching workforce needs with state education – “Alabama business and industry have spoken and they’ve spoken loudly.” – Dr. Philip Cleveland

 

Playing it SAFE for Alabama families and education – Margaret Morton believes workforce development lies in family development.

 

100 dishes to eat in Alabama before you die: Irondale Café – Check out this tasty Southern side dish featured this week.

 

Alabama Power Foundation accepting Students to Stewards grant applications – Program supports conservation education across Alabama.

 

Alabama Road Trips: On the trail of the pig – Alabama’s historic barbecue restaurants – Alabama “Q” has been around since the 1890s, but it’s never been bigger.

http://alabamanewscenter.com/2015/08/24/alabama-road-trips-on-the-trail-of-the-pig-alabamas-

 

Southern Company/AGL Resources deal would create leading U.S. joint electricity-natural gas utility – Purchase is Alabama Power parent’s largest energy diversification acquisition.

 

Mercedes won’t exit Saints stadium pact with new Falcons deal – Automaker set to sponsor rivals’ venues in New Orleans and Atlanta.

 

Montgomery area children take in trick golf shots, First Tee values – Alabama Power Junior Clinic teaches while entertaining.

 

Women urged at Mobile forum to ‘step off that cliff’ – Shattering the Glass Ceiling encourages and challenges Alabama women.

 

Yokohama Tire LPGA Classic tees off with ‘extremely strong’ field – Top women in golf playing today through Sunday in Alabama.

 

Murphy vs. Baker among Alabama NewsCenter’s top high school football match-ups this week – A look at some Alabama high school football games you may want to take in this week.

Categories: Weather

Mt. Cheaha NOAA Wx Radio Down

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/28/2015 - 13:38

At 1:09 pm the National Weather Service in Birmingham sent out a Public Information Statement to advise weather radio listeners in East Central Alabama that the NOAA Weather Radio broadcasting on 146.475 MHz from an antenna on Mt. Cheaha will be off the air for scheduled maintenance this afternoon.

Fortunately, there does not appear to be any serious weather to be concerned about. Alternatives include the Oneonta transmitter on 162.425 MHz or the Birmingham transmitter on 162.550 MHz.

I’ve included the full text of the message below.

-Brian-

NOUS44 KBMX 281809 PNSBMX ALZ011>015-017>050-290615- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 109 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015 ...ANNISTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO WILL BE OFF THE AIR... THE ANNISTON NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.475 MHZ...WILL BE OFF THE AIR FOR SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE RADIO MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODIC OUTAGES. THE TECHNICIANS WILL WORK AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE TO COMPLETE THE WORK AND GET THE AUDIO BACK UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IN THE MEANTIME...PLEASE TUNE TO LOCAL MEDIA AND COMMERCIAL RADIO FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. BACKUP NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS ARE: ONEONTA...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MHZ...AND BIRMINGHAM...BROADCASTING ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.550 MHZ. KEEP IN MIND THAT NOT ALL BACKUP TRANSMITTERS WILL TONE FOR YOUR SPECIFIC COUNTY...SO PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE DURING THE OUTAGE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE. $$
Categories: Weather
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