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Afternoon Sun and Not as Cold

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 03/18/2014 - 06:03

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Low clouds and fog blanketed much of Central Alabama this morning, though as you will see from the Skycam network, there was a good deal of variability to the fog. The fog should dissipate by mid morning around 9 or 10 am, but the clouds should stick around for much of the morning. Clouds will begin to break up this afternoon from west to east and we should see some sun for the afternoon hours. And it will not be as cold today as it was yesterday as the daytime highs should recover into the lower 60s, still a little below the typical highs for this time in March which are around 67 degrees.

The next several days should be rain free and warmer as the upper air pattern becomes less amplified and we go into a nearly zonal flow pattern across the Southeast US. A fast moving short wave trough will cross the Ohio River Valley and Great Lakes from Wednesday into Thursday dragging a weak cold front into the area Wednesday. While we are likely to see a mix of sun and clouds, it does not look like we’ll see enough moisture return to bring any showers with the dissipating front.

A surface high pressure system will settle into and across the Southeast on Thursday and Friday. Rain chances do come up as we head into the weekend as the primary westerlies remain well to our north. However, the upper trough moving through New England is likely to drag a frontal zone into the Southeast on Saturday and Sunday. The frontal zone will be a focus for some showers, but this does not appear to be a big rain event. The problem is that the frontal zone will weaken and washout somewhat but with no upper air push to it, it will stick around until another impulse moves through the Great Lakes on Tuesday bringing another good shot at rain but finally pushing the frontal zone into the Gulf and Atlantic.

Rainfall for the next five days appears light after the reasonably heavy rains of the last couple of days. And there is no reason to expect any severe weather threats for the next five days.

The pattern remains active peeking out into voodoo country with a nice trough moving through the eastern US around the 30th with yet another fairly sharp trough expected around the 3rd of April. This latter trough appears to be strong and could be responsible for some type of severe weather situation. This is voodoo country, but it is also early April which does put us in the heart of severe weather season. We’ll keep an eye on it and see how it evolves with future model runs.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann is off on some turkey hunting adventure this morning, so I’m filling in for him on this edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. He is expected to be back this afternoon with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video unless the turkeys capture him and hold him for ransom! Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 425: Space Special

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 03/18/2014 - 05:05

WeatherBrains Episode 425 is now online (March 17, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Senior Reviews Editor for Ars Technica. He is the author of a recent article about a potential rescue of the Space Shuttle Columbia which was destroyed on re-entry in 2003. So please welcome Lee Hutchinson to WeatherBrains.

Our Guest Panelist is Hayden Nix, the President of East Mississippi Chapter of the NWA/AMS. He is also in charge of the upcoming Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University.

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: You’ve probably heard of fractals, but have you heard of fractus clouds? Often referred to as an accessory cloud, fractus clouds often look mean though they rarely are and can be especially helpful to storm spotters when watching for telltale signs of rotation. So in this episode of 101 we take a look at these special clouds.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of March 17th.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 425:

Mississippi State University Severe Weather Symposium

Apollo 12 reenactment

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Journalists Need To Think More Critically About Weather maps

Bill Murray – Central Alabama NWA Chapter First Award at Central Alabama Regional Science and Engineering Fair Winners Caroline Borden/Jaylan Jacobs

James Spann – NCEP El Nino Forecast

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, and Aubrey Urbanowicz. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 425: Space Special

WeatherBrains - Tue, 03/18/2014 - 04:00

WeatherBrains Episode 425 is now online (March 17, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Senior Reviews Editor for Ars Technica. He is the author of a recent article about a potential rescue of the Space Shuttle Columbia which was destroyed on re-entry in 2003. So please welcome Lee Hutchinson to WeatherBrains.

Our Guest Panelist is Hayden Nix, the President of East Mississippi Chapter of the NWA/AMS. He is also in charge of the upcoming Southeast Severe Storms Symposium at Mississippi State University.

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: You’ve probably heard of fractals, but have you heard of fractus clouds? Often referred to as an accessory cloud, fractus clouds often look mean though they rarely are and can be especially helpful to storm spotters when watching for telltale signs of rotation. So in this episode of 101 we take a look at these special clouds.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of March 17th.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 425:

Mississippi State University Severe Weather Symposium

Apollo 12 reenactment

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Journalists Need To Think More Critically About Weather maps

Bill Murray – Central Alabama NWA Chapter First Award at Central Alabama Regional Science and Engineering Fair Winners Caroline Borden/Jaylan Jacobs

James Spann – NCEP El Nino Forecast

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like JB Elliott, Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, and Aubrey Urbanowicz. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Raw, Cold St. Patrick’s Day

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 03/17/2014 - 15:31

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

TOO COLD FOR MID-MARCH: Seems like this is the winter that just won’t go away. Birmingham’s average high for March 17 us 67 degrees; we are only at 45 degrees at 2:00p CT… over 20 degrees below average. Up north we see only 30s in the Tennessee Valley. Clouds cover the state, but the rain is confined to the southeast counties.

WARMER DAYS AHEAD: We expect brighter and warmer weather tomorrow and Wednesday; a mix of sun and clouds both days with low 60s tomorrow and upper 60s Wednesday. A weak front will slip into Alabama early Wednesday, but with little moisture and the main support well to the north, we won’t mention any significant chance of rain.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Nice weather continues with a good supply of sunshine both days. Thursday’s high will be near 70 degrees, followed by mid 70s Friday afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A weak front will slip into North Alabama late Saturday and Saturday night; ahead of the front a few scattered showers are possible over the northern half of the state, but moisture will be limited, and the rain probably won’t be heavy or really widespread. Seems like the best chance of rain during the day Saturday will come north of I-20 (north of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston), with showers moving into Central Alabama Saturday night. The high Saturday afternoon will be close to 70 degrees.

The front will become nearly stationary somewhere over Central Alabama Sunday, setting up a sharp thermal gradient; cities like Huntsville and Muscle Shoals will probably hold in the cool 50s all day, while 70s are possible over South Alabama. Sunday will be mostly cloudy with the chance of showers, or some patchy light rain.

There is no risk of severe weather across Alabama this weekend. In fact, we really don’t see any significant severe weather setup through the rest of March.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Look for mostly sunny days and fair nights along the coast tomorrow through Friday from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the low to mid 60s, but look for 70s inland by Thursday and Friday. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is a cool 60 degrees.

Showers are possible on the Gulf Coast Sunday and Monday, and at this point it looks like much of next week beyond Monday will be dry. We will be much more specific about next week in a few days (spring break time; many questions about beach weather!).

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing the first graders today at South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover… and the second graders at Vestavia Hills West Elementary. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Cooler; Rain At Times

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 03/17/2014 - 06:15

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLDER AIR ARRIVES: Birmingham’s high yesterday was 70 degrees, but today we won’t get past the mid 50s thanks to a cold front that passed through very early this morning. An upper trough axis is still west of the state, meaning the day will be cloudy, and we will maintain the risk of rain this morning.

Rain was falling at daybreak over much of West Alabama; the rain was moderate in places north and west of Tuscaloosa. The big rain mass is moving steadily to the east and will impact the Birmingham metro during the morning commute. The rain will end this afternoon as the trough axis moves to the east.

MID-WEEK: Tomorrow will be brighter and warmer; with a partly sunny sky we rise into the mid 60s. A weak surface front will pass through Wednesday morning, but the air will be pretty dry, and for now we are not going to mention any rain with the front, and the cold air stays north of Alabama. So, Wednesday will be dry with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and a high in the upper 60s.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days looks very nice, with ample sunshine. The high Thursday will be close to 70, and a good chance we reach the mid 70s Friday afternoon.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An approaching cold front will bring the risk of showers to our state on Saturday. It won’t rain all day, and I don’t think the rain will be all that heavy, and no risk of severe weather. Just be aware of the potential of some rain at times during the day if you have something planned outdoors. Saturday will be cloudy with a high around 70 degrees.

Sunday will be mostly cloudy and cooler; the lagging upper trough could bring a little scattered light rain, but a decent part of the day should be dry. Sunday’s high will be close to 60 degrees.

AT THE BEACH: Yep, tis the season for spring breakers. A few showers are possible today along the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but the rest of the week will be dry with mostly sunny days and fair nights. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 61 degrees, and that will limit the air temperatures. Highs along the immediate coast this week will be in the low 60s, but just a few miles inland it will be up in the low to mid 70s.

For the weekend ahead, a few scattered showers are possible Saturday and Sunday with a mostly cloudy sky both days, and rain is possible Monday of next week as well.

Understand there is very little skill in a specific forecast beyond seven days, but at this point the rest of next week (March 25-28) looks dry and mild on the Gulf Coast. Highs on the immediate coast in the 60s, with 70s inland.

LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any major severe weather issues for North-Central Alabama for the rest of March. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT; you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have weather programs today at South Shades Crest Elementary in Hoover, and at West Elementary in Vestavia Hills. Be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

A Few Showers and Storms

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 20:17

We are still watching a few showers and storms moving across north-central Alabama this evening. This convection developed in response to the warmer temps today brought on by the breaks in the clouds we had this afternoon, and an upper-level trough moving across the area, which has allowed for a bit of instability to build across the region.

The activity will remain widely scattered the rest of this evening and most locations across Central Alabama will remain dry. If you get caught under one of these storms, you could possibly have heavy rain, gusty winds, some hail, and lightning. The storms will not last long and will continue to drift towards the east the next few hours out ahead of the front. Some of the stronger activity currently is affecting portions of Chilton, Perry, and Elmore counties.

There were a few reports of hail via social media earlier with a storm that moved across Blount County.

Across southern portions of the state, there continues to be moderate to heavy rain falling along the Gulf Coast and into some of our southeastern counties. The bulk of this activity is south of Interstate 85 and is affecting areas around Troy and Eufaula.

Categories: Weather

Storm Over Blount County

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 18:42

LATE REPORT
1/2 inch sized hail reported in Nectar at 6:35.

Just before 7 p.m., the core was passing south of Rosa and turning a little right towards Oneonta. It has weakened some.

As expected with the colder air aloft associated with the approaching upper trough and the wee bit of sunshine we have had today, isolated showers have developed over North Central Alabama.

One over Blount County is now a thunderstorm, with tops approaching 30,000 feet and lightning. It is located between Oneonta and Blountsville.

It is moving east at 20 mph. It will pass near Altoona and Steele as well as just north of Oneonta.

It is beginning to show signs of small hail.

On radar it has decent organization, thanks to 40-45 knots of bulk wind shear, taking on a bit of a kidney bean shape.

There is a small amount of helicity (around 50 m2/s2 in the 0-1km layer), so we can’t rule out a small tornado. Due to its organization, there is a chance of it becoming severe from a damaging wind or hail standpoint is small as well, so we will keep an eye on it.

Categories: Weather

National Flood Safety Awareness Week, March 16-22, 2014

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 16:00

As a Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador, AlabamaWX is committed to keeping people informed of any initiative which will better prepare them to “Be a Force of Nature.” Starting today, NOAA and FEMA begin their annual National Flood Safety Awareness Week. This a week dedicated to providing life-saving information on being prepared for the threat of flooding.

On average, flooding causes more property damage in the United States than any other weather related event. It is a threat to life and property that can occur in any of the fifty states or U.S. territories at any time of year. In 2013, the nation watched as deadly floods from severe storms impacted the Great Plains during May and record rainfall caused devastating flooding in Colorado in September. Last year, 85 people lost their lives to freshwater flooding. More than half of those fatalities were a result of people driving into floodwaters. On average, there are 89 fatalities and $8.3 billion in damages annually.

During National Flood Safety Awareness Week , March 16-22, 2014, NOAA and FEMA will highlight the importance of preparing for a flood before it strikes and teach the actions you should take when faced with a flooding situation.

The National Weather Service has created an online marketing toolkit to help you get the word out about National Flood Safety Awareness Week. The toolkit contains daily web stories (including Spanish versions), a poster, a social media plan and flood safety information. All of this content is in the public domain and can be used for your web site, email newsletter, social networks or elsewhere.

In addition, the National Weather Service has a redesigned flood safety web site, with information on what to do before, during and after a flood. The site includes an interactive flood map, where you can look up flood dangers in your state. Flooding is a nationwide threat. But with your help, we can highlight the importance of preparing for a flood before it strikes.

“Be a Force of Nature”

Categories: Weather

Mild, with a Mix of Sun and Clouds

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 15:28

Much of Alabama is drying out this afternoon as most of the shower and thunderstorm activity has pushed off to our south and east. There has been some dry air that has worked in from the west in the mid-levels and that has help erode away some of the clouds. We are seeing mostly cloudy conditions across the state this afternoon, but there are quite a few breaks allowing some sunshine to show up in portions of Alabama.

Where the sun is able to make it to the surface, we have seen temperatures warm into the 70s. Locations where the clouds are hanging around, are only seeing their temps into the 60s. The added sunlight, could help instability increase across the region today. With the area of low pressure and cold front still yet to push through the state, we have the chance to see a few scattered showers this afternoon, and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two. If we do see any storms, they could pack a punch and produce hail and gusty winds. The chance of seeing additional convection is very low, but it is worth mentioning until the front is able to push through the area later this evening.

Enjoy the warm weather today as temperatures will be about twenty degrees cooler tomorrow. The cold front will bring in cooler air while the and upper-level trough will keep the weather cloudy and showery tomorrow.

Categories: Weather

A Break in the Action

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 12:10

It was a very wet night across the state of Alabama. The bulk of the heavy rain and thunderstorms is pushing out of the state. Severe weather remains a threat along the northeastern Gulf Coast, where the SPC maintains a slight risk for severe weather for the areas outlined in green.

For most of Alabama, we are seeing a break in the activity. The main area of low pressure and front remain off to our west. We are even seeing a few breaks in the clouds off to our southwest and portions of Central Alabama will likely see some peeks of sunshine this afternoon. Until the main front passes through the state, we will maintain a chance for scattered showers and a few storms this afternoon.

The latest day one convective outlook from the SPC suggest areas that receive daytime heating because of the breaks in the clouds, could see some additional destabilization of the atmosphere. This could possibly allow a few isolated storms to develop later today. We will have to watch these storms carefully because the added instability may possibly allow a few of the storms to produce hail and some gusty winds.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch Has Been Cancelled

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 10:51

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED THE TORNADO WATCH  FOR
THE FOLLOWING 2 COUNTIES:

BARBOUR & PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…EUFAULA AND TROY.

 

Categories: Weather

Damage in Atmore

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 10:05

Significant damage has been reported in Atmore in South Alabama’s Escambia County from a severe storm that moved through just after 8 a.m.

A tornado warning was in effect and radar indicated a tornado in the area.

These same storms are in the Ozark area now. A tornado warning is in effect for Dale and Coffee Counties.

The back edge of the rain area extends now from Valley to Tuskegee to Greenville and Monroeville then into the Mobile area.

Flooding was reported on the University of South Alabama campus.

Across our area, visible satellite photos show some breaks in the clouds west of I-59.

Categories: Weather

Barbour and Bullock Counties in New Tornado Watch

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 09:03

A new tornado watch is being issued for South Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. It will go until 5 p.m.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 31 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BARBOUR PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…EUFAULA AND TROY.

Here is the current situation:

Click image to enlarge.

TOP LEFT PANEL: Occluded surface low near Little Rock, near secondary low near Mobile.

BOTTOM LEFT: Warnings and the Slight Risk convective severe weather outlook.

MAIN PANEL: Radar with the two tornado watches.

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms over South Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 09:02

Strong thunderstorms continue over South Alabama this morning. The most intense storms extend from Greenville to Andalusia, Brewton to Spanish Fort and Pascagoula in Mississippi.

Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for Escambia/Santa Rosa Counties in Northwest Florida as well as Mobile County in Southwest Alabama. A tornado warning is in effect until 915 for Covington County for a possible tornado near Red Level, or 15 miles northwest of Andalusia.

The strong storms are pushing east at 45 mph.

A tornado watch continues until noon CDT for southeastern Mississippi, southwestern Alabama and three counties in the Florida Panhandle.

The watch comes as far north as Clarke, Wilcox and Butler Counties in Alabama.

A new tornado watch is being considered for additional counties in Northwest Florida.

Further north, it’s just rain and the rain is now mainly east of a line from Roanoke to Alex City to Millbrook to Jackson.

1.63 inches of rain so far at Birmingham since last night. One to two inches of rain have been common with the system.

Behind the main rain area, there will be a few showers during the day, but it should be mainly dry. More showers will move across the area late this afternoon and tonight. The heaviest rain will be south of I-85/65 from Auburn to Montgomery to Mobile.

There will be a few showers on Monday as the upper level trough rotates across the area. It will be cooler as well, with highs struggling to get out of the 40s heading toward highs in the lower 50s.

Categories: Weather

Areal Flood Advisory for much of East-Central Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 08:53

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR…
EASTERN AUTAUGA COUNTY…
CHAMBERS COUNTY…
SOUTHERN COOSA COUNTY…
ELMORE COUNTY…
LEE COUNTY…
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY…
LOWNDES COUNTY…
MONTGOMERY COUNTY…
BARBOUR COUNTY…
BULLOCK COUNTY…
MACON COUNTY…
NORTHERN PIKE COUNTY…
RUSSELL COUNTY…

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 840 AM CDT…A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE ADVISORY AREA THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME
LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. IT APPEARS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITHIN A 3 HOUR
WINDOW AND THESE AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. LOW
LYING…POOR DRAINAGE AND CLOGGED DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE THE MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO HIGH WATER.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND AND DON’T
DROWN.

Categories: Weather

March 16 Weather Xtreme Video

Weather Xtreme Video - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 07:15
March 16 Weather Xtreme Video
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 482 3 ratings Time: 08:25 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Wet Start for Central Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 07:14

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Rain developed and moved into and across Central Alabama overnight with some spots recording over an inch of rain so far. The weather was somewhat stormier across Southwest Alabama where the NWS in Mobile had issued a couple of tornado warnings and a tornado watch was in effect for parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Northwest Florida until noon. Greatest instability with this system appears to stay close to the coast coming inland as far as about Montgomery. But the double nature of the surface low makes marginally strong storms possible as far north as the Tennessee River Valley. The lack of much lightning activity across North and Central Alabama suggests that the strongest instability will be confined to the area south of about Montgomery where dew points were in the lower 60s. We’ll need to watch any northward progression of the instability for additional development of strong storms, but at this writing the threat appears minimal.

The weather will stay somewhat wet and unsettled through Monday until the positively tilted upper trough works its way by us. Satellite images indicate the presence of some mid-level drying to our west, so the rainfall blanketing the area this morning will likely come to an end by midday but there still remains a likelihood of additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm until the weather stabilizes with the passage of the upper trough on Monday. Temperature forecasting today is going to be tough, too, because the highs will depend on just how far north the warm air can push. As of this writing, it would appear likely that Central Alabama will only see highs in the 60s.

The weather winds down Monday with the passage of the upper trough as everything shifts eastward. The trough passing the Southeast today and Monday will be followed quickly by another and colder upper short wave, however, this one appears likely to stay north of us as it crosses the Great Lakes. While it may drag another cold front down into the Southeast US, it appears unlikely that enough moisture will return in order to bring any rain to the area at midweek. Moisture return with the passage of closely spaced systems can be a forecast issue, so we’ll watch to see how that evolves, but for now the forecast looks dry with just some clouds. After a coolish Monday, temperatures should return to the 60s at midweek.

As the upper air pattern flattens and becomes nearly zonal across the southern tier of the country, we should see dry and warming weather into the end of the week with highs coming back into the 70s by Friday. A slight deepening of the trough over the eastern US by Saturday could bring another front into the area Saturday and Sunday with some chance for showers. The big question for this front will again be the presence – or absence – of moisture for the system to work with. But with the upper flow going nearly zonal, the front is likely to wash out into the weekend with no major air mass change and highs in the 70 to 74 range.

Peeking out into Week 2, the overall upper air pattern remains fairly active with a steady series of short waves moving through the flow to keep some sort of rain chance every few days. Yesterday the long range GFS lacked any significant weather systems that might provide some threat for severe weather, but that has changed on this run. Around the 28th of March, the GFS shows a strong short wave trough with a possible negative tilt to it, suggesting the potential for a severe weather threat. But this is voodoo country, and we saw how much it changed from yesterday to today.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

CENTRAL ALABAMA NWA: The first meeting of the year of the local chapter of the National Weather Association (NWA) will be Monday night at 7 pm at the Homewood Suites in Riverchase. Kevin Laws of the National Weather Service in Birmingham will team up with Bob Dreisewerd from Baron Services to talk all about weather radar, including the new SAILS severe weather scanning strategy for the WSR-88D radar. You can get more information at the NWA Groupspaces site

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Stay dry and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch – South Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 03/16/2014 - 05:29

A tornado watch is up for far South Alabama until 12 noon… just rain early this morning for the northern half of the state….

Categories: Weather

Wet Weather Arrives Overnight

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 03/15/2014 - 19:31

As expected, most of our Saturday was dry. We did have clouds and mild temperatures, but we remained dry.

We are beginning to see a few light showers work in to West Alabama, but only very light rain is occurring. We are watching areas to our west as showers and storms, some of which are severe, are working across Texas. Heavy rain and storms are currently affecting the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex and all this activity is moving east. The SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather, the areas outlined in green, for portions eastern Texas, much of Louisiana, and southern Mississippi, for the overnight hours.

Widespread showers are ongoing across Louisiana and Arkansas. As the storm system shifts east, the rain and storms will be moving into Alabama and we can expect a soaking rain later tonight and into Sunday. Rain will be heavy at times and we could hear a few rumbles of thunder. The better dynamics and instability will remain to the south of Central Alabama, so severe weather is not expected.

Categories: Weather

Cloudy and Mild

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 03/15/2014 - 15:43

The dry weather continues across much of Alabama this afternoon. There are a few showers along the Gulf Coast, but the bulk of the rain remains out to our west over Texas and Oklahoma. It will be heading our way and will arrive later this evening and overnight.

Currently, we are seeing a sky full of clouds, with just a few breaks that are allowing a peek or two of sunshine through. Our winds are blowing from the south and that continues to bring warmer air north form the Gulf. All locations in Alabama have warmed into the 60s or 70s. Not too bad a day, minus the cloud cover. We will continue to remain mild and we will see clouds continue to move into from the west.

A strong storm system over the southern Plains is producing widespread showers and storms. This storm system is beginning to move east and will bring those showers and storms into Alabama for your Saturday night and Sunday.

Categories: Weather