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Flash Flood Warning Autauga/Elmore/Montgomery Counties til 10:30PM

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 19:27

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SOUTHWESTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

Click image to enlarge.

* AT 726 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MONTGOMERY…PRATTVILLE…MILLBROOK…WETUMPKA…ELMORE…
COOSADA…DEATSVILLE…BOYLSTON…ALABAMA STATE UNIVERSITY…GUNTER
AIR FORCE BASE…BOB WOODRUFF LAKE…LAGOON PARK…HUNTER…
MONTGOMERY RIVERWALK STADIUM…MONTGOMERY ZOO…MAXWELL AIR FORCE
BASE…ALABAMA STATE CAPITOL…AUTAUGA COUNTY AIRPORT…EASTDALE
MALL AND BLUE RIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Jefferson/Tuscaloosa Counties til 8PM

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 19:12

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

Click image to enlarge.

* AT 711 PM CDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR OAK GROVE TO NEAR BULL CITY…MOVING SOUTH AT
10 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
BESSEMER…HUEYTOWN…PLEASANT GROVE…LAKE VIEW…BROOKWOOD…
COALING…SYLVAN SPRINGS…VANCE…MAYTOWN…NORTH JOHNS…SPLASH
ADVENTURE…BULL CITY…LAKE WILDWOOD…CONCORD…BANKHEAD LOCK AND
DAM…MERCEDES BENZ OF ALABAMA…ABERNANT…TANNEHILL IRONWORKS
STATE PARK…NORTH BIBB AND ROCK CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Coosa/Tallapoosa Counties

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 17:50

Strong storms in the Alex City area could produce winds to 60 mph.

New storms are forming in the I-20 corridor as well, including southern Walker and western Jefferson Counties.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTHWESTERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 549 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KELLYTON…
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ALEXANDER CITY…KELLYTON…JACKSONS’ GAP…HILLABEE CREEK…
NORTHERN LAKE MARTIN…WIND CREEK STATE PARK…HIGHWAY 9 AND
HIGHWAY 22…CREWSVILLE…COTTAGE GROVE…BRADFORD…EASTERN LAKE
MARTIN…WESTERN LAKE MARTIN…HISSOP…FISHPOND AND RAY.

Categories: Weather

Storms Mainly Over Southeast Alabama Today

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 15:39

RADAR CHECK: Most of the really active showers and thunderstorms today are south of I-85, and east of I-65, over the southern counties of Alabama. They are producing lots of lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rain as they move southeast.

The northern half of the state is generally dry, with temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees.

REST OF THE WEEK: Tomorrow looks relatively dry for North/Central Alabama, with a partly sunny sky and only isolated showers; we should reach the upper 80s tomorrow afternoon. Then, on Thursday and Friday, we will forecast a mix of sun and clouds both days with the risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will remain in the 87 to 90 degree range.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An upper ridge begins to build across the Southeast U.S., and that means increasing heat levels, and fewer showers around Saturday and Sunday. A good chance we reach the low 90s both days, with only a small risk of any one spot seeing a cooling afternoon shower.

And, it looks like the upper ridge will persist into much of next week, meaning some of the hottest weather so far this year with daily highs in the low to mid 90s, with only very isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend on the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with the daily chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid 80s along the immediate coast, and closer to 90 degrees inland. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. No sign of any tropical issues for the Atlantic or the Gulf through mid-month from global computer models.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Widely Scattered Thunderstorms; Warm/Humid

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 06:22

JUNE IN ALABAMA: This is the time of the year when there is some risk of a shower or storm just about every day, but they tend to be rather scattered, and random. We actually have a few strong storms at daybreak over the eastern counties with a good bit of lightning…

These storms are ahead of a surface boundary near the Alabama/Tennessee border. This front will become nearly stationary over North Alabama today; by afternoon the best chance of scattered showers and storms will shift down into the southern half of the state. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny sky today with a high in the upper 80s.

REST OF THE WEEK: The front will wash out over the next 24 hours, and we expect some fairly routine mid-June weather tomorrow through Friday. Each day some risk of a shower or thunderstorm, but they should be widely scattered, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. Partly sunny days, mostly fair nights, and afternoon highs generally in the upper 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A 5880 meter 500 millibar upper ridge begins to build across the Deep South, meaning heat levels will be creeping up, and showers will become fewer in number Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon temperatures reach the low 90s both days with hazy sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: Hot weather continues for the first half of the week with only isolated showers or storms, but some evidence the ridge weakens later in the week, with heat levels coming down and a higher chance of showers and thunderstorms. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, with the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores. Highs on the immediate coast will range from 82 to 85, with upper 80s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 83 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 489: Therapist on Speed Dial

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 489 is now online (June 8, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist at KMBC in Kansas City, a position he has held for nearly 30 years. He is a fascinating personality and icon in his market. Bryan Busby, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Leadville, CO
  • Marginal severe weather across Southeast & into Mid-Atlantic Region
  • Tropical Atlantic Basin quiet
  • Blanca making landfall on Baja California
  • Big storms in PA and WV with lots of rain
  • Wet in Kansas City, too
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer dips into the mail bag to review the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Radar is one of the most visible tools used by meteorologists in watching and analyzing the atmosphere. So for this edition of 101 we take a look at some of how a radar does its job.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 489:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    George Global web site

    KMBC-TV Weather web site

    Bryan Busby full bio

    Bryan Busby on 1995 Groundhog Day

    Picks of the Week:

    Brian Peters – Around the World Solar Flight

    John Scala – When Will it Start Raining at Your House

    Kevin Selle – Referral Driven Web

    James Spann – NOAA historical hurricane tracks

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Coldest June in Sydney

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    WeatherBrains 489: Therapist on Speed Dial

    WeatherBrains - Tue, 06/09/2015 - 04:45

    WeatherBrains Episode 489 is now online (June 8, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Chief Meteorologist at KMBC in Kansas City, a position he has held for nearly 30 years. He is a fascinating personality and icon in his market. Bryan Busby, welcome to WeatherBrains.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 114 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Leadville, CO
  • Marginal severe weather across Southeast & into Mid-Atlantic Region
  • Tropical Atlantic Basin quiet
  • Blanca making landfall on Baja California
  • Big storms in PA and WV with lots of rain
  • Wet in Kansas City, too
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer dips into the mail bag to review the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: Radar is one of the most visible tools used by meteorologists in watching and analyzing the atmosphere. So for this edition of 101 we take a look at some of how a radar does its job.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 489:

    To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

    George Global web site

    KMBC-TV Weather web site

    Bryan Busby full bio

    Bryan Busby on 1995 Groundhog Day

    Picks of the Week:

    Bryan Busby – caught flatfooted for a pick

    Brian Peters – Around the World Solar Flight

    John Scala – When Will it Start Raining at Your House

    Kevin Selle – Referral Driven Web

    James Spann – NOAA historical hurricane tracks

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Coldest June in Sydney

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    Tracking Strong Storms

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/08/2015 - 17:32

    Strong thunderstorms are widely scattered across North Central Alabama this afternoon. Really two storms at this time, one over Pickens County between Reform and Gordo and the other centered on the Cullman/Blount County line west of Blountsville and Cleveland.

    In Northeast Alabama, storms with a history of producing wind damage are over Dekalb and Jackson Counties. These storms will be passing into Georgia soon.

    Strong storms over northern Mississippi are south of Oxford. These storms are about 2 hours away from the Alabama/Mississippi border.

    We still expect a line of storms to push south across the area later tonight. We will be monitoring.

    Categories: Weather

    Scattered Strong Storms Tonight

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/08/2015 - 15:28

    RADAR CHECK: Heaviest storms in Alabama at mid-afternoon were over the northwest corner of the state; they are producing heavy, gusty winds, and frequent lightning as they move east. Some scattered wind damage was reported in Florence around 2:30…

    A surface front, supported by a fairly robust upper trough, is moving into extreme North Tennessee this afternoon, and as they approaches we will maintain the chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight across the northern half of Alabama. Storms won’t be especially organized, and the overall severe weather threat for Alabama remains low with the better dynamic support passing to the north. But the heavier storms tonight will bring lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain.

    REST OF THE WEEK: Drier air will creep into North Alabama tomorrow as the front becomes nearly stationary somewhere around I-20; best chance of a passing shower or storm through Friday will be over the southern half of the state, with rain more widely scattered over the northern counties. Daily highs will be in the 86 to 90 degree range, about where we should be in mid-June in Alabama. Very typical of early summer.

    THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An upper high will begin to build across the Southeast U.S… meaning a trend toward hotter and drier weather. Looks like the high will be up in the low 90s Saturday and Sunday, with a good supply of hazy sunshine both days and only isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

    That ridge will most likely keep us hot through the first half of next week, with afternoon thunderstorms staying very isolated. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

    AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, with potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid 80s, with 87 to 90 degrees likely each afternoon inland. Sea water temperatures are in the mid 80s.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

    Categories: Weather

    Strong Storms Over Northwest Alabama

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/08/2015 - 15:05

    The NWS has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Lauderdale County for a storm approaching Killen. It will move to near Lexington.

    Wind damage was reported in Florence, with some large trees down.

    Strong storms extend southeastward through Colbert, eastern Franklin, Marion and into Lamar and Fayette Counties. Other storms are

    The airmass north of I-20 is moderately unstable, so the storms will continue through the afternoon and evening. Other storms will push through later tonight ahead of a slowing cold front. There will be a few warnings, with damaging winds presenting the main threat.

    The SPC has areas north of I-20 outlooked in the new “Marginal” risk category, which is just below the standard slight and covers events were widespread severe weather is not expected. But keep an eye to the radar and be alert for warnings for your area.

    Categories: Weather

    Scattered Showers/Storms Return

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 06/08/2015 - 06:25

    RADAR CHECK: We actually have a few showers at daybreak in progress over Clay and Talladega Counties… they are moving northeast, and seem to be dissipating.

    For most Alabama communities, yesterday was the hottest day so far this year. Birmingham and Anniston reached 91, while Tuscaloosa hit 93 degrees. Heat levels will come down a bit today with a high between 87 and 90 degrees… we expect a mix of sun and clouds, and showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight as a surface front approaches the state from the north.

    SPC has the northern part of Alabama in a “marginal” severe weather risk later today, with the standard “slight” risk for much of Tennessee. Main issue with the heavier storms here will come from gusty winds and frequent lightning; the overall severe weather threat looks low.

    REST OF THE WEEK: The surface front will stall out somewhere near the Alabama/Tennessee border tomorrow; seems like the best chance of scattered showers and storms will be south of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), with only isolated showers to the north over the Tennessee Valley. Then, the front dissipates Wednesday, and each day we will have the usual summer forecast, with a mix of sun and clouds and the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, most numerous during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s most days, pretty close to seasonal averages.

    THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: An upper ridge begins to build, and the warmer air aloft associated with the ridge will make the air more stable, meaning showers become very widely spaced Saturday and Sunday. We will forecast a good supply of sunshine both days with temperatures creeping back into the low 90s during the afternoon hours.

    VOODOO LAND: The GFS continues to try and develop some type of tropical low over the western Gulf of Mexico next week, pushing it up toward the Sabine Pass (Texas/Louisiana border) at mid-week. But, the European global model shows nothing there; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

    AT THE BEACH: Pretty much the standard summer forecast this week, and into the upcoming weekend for the zone from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores; about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with scattered showers and thunderstorms; highs on the immediate coast will range from 83 to 86 degrees, with 87-90 degrees a few miles inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 84 degrees.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

    Categories: Weather

    The Deadly Barneveld Tornado

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 06/07/2015 - 15:08

    On the morning of Thursday, June 7, 1984, weather maps showed a major trough of low pressure across the western United States, anchored by an upper low over the northern Rockies. A long cold front snaked from Canada down through the Upper Midwest into the Plains. An occluded low pressure system was over southern Canada. A new low pressure system had formed to the south and was moving northeast off the plains of eastern Colorado. A strong complex of thunderstorms had moved through the Upper Midwest during the early morning hours, but across the region, the atmosphere reloaded quickly. Dewpoints were in the middle and upper 60s

    By afternoon, an explosive situation was in place with high instabilities and increasing wind shear as the low pressure system intensified while moving toward the Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms broke out during the afternoon from Minnesota into Iowa. Tornado reports started to come in by mid-afternoon, where a rash of at least fourteen tornadoes plagued the northwestern part of the state.

    Further south, other tornadoes touched down in Missouri. One family of tornadoes started near the Missouri/Iowa border. This supercell storm produced at least four tornadoes along a 140 mile path across much of Iowa. Three tornadoes were rated as F3s and one was rated F4 out of the afternoon activity. The F4 tore through the town of Wright, Iowa, killing two. The tiny town was completely leveled, with all 25 homes destroyed and all but two buildings destroyed. In addition, one person died near Ringgold, Iowa and three more in Harrison County, Missouri.

    But the deadliest tornado of the outbreak would come during the early morning hours of June 8th. The complex of storms that had produced the long-track tornadoes in Iowa weakened during the evening hours. But as it moved toward southwestern Wisconsin, it encountered a higher level of instability and shear and the storms began to strengthen. A tornado watch was issued at 11 p.m. The first tornado touched down around 12:30 a.m., remaining on the ground for several minutes. A more powerful tornado touched down near Mineral Point. A few miles to the northeast, many of the 582 residents in the town of Barneveld were awakened by a massive clap of thunder right before the power went out. The town’s tornado sirens remained silent due to the power outage even as the huge F5 tornado roared toward Barneveld.

    As the tornado ripped through Barneveld, it was at least 400 yards wide. When it finished its destructive rampage, 90% of the town lay in ruins. Seventeen of eighteen businesses were destroyed, as well as the municipal building, bank, post office, fire station and three churches. A total of 93 homes were destroyed and another 64 heavily damaged.

    A total of nine people lost their lives in the inky blackness that night, while 200 were injured. The town’s water tower was damaged, but was the only thing left standing amidst the tremendous devastation.

    Click image to enlarge. Courtesy NWS Milwaukee.

    For years, residents of the tiny town spent many a sleepless night listening to every rustle of the wind for the sound of another deadly nighttime visitor.

    Categories: Weather

    Another Toasty Day

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 06/07/2015 - 06:48

    Many places across Central Alabama reached 90 degrees for highs with some spots a tad warmer as the upper ridge built into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. The high at Birmingham was 90 while Tuscaloosa recorded a high of 92. The upper ridge will gradually be dampened today and into Monday as a strong upper trough moves across the Great Lakes area. This means another warm day in store for Central Alabama with highs in the lower 90s. But as the ridge dampens over the next several days, temperatures should come back to more typical values for early June with highs in the mid and upper 80s. Showers will be hard to find again today as we saw yesterday, but can’t rule out an isolated shower in the heat of the afternoon.

    As the trough moves across the Great Lakes, it will bring a front down into the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys on Monday and Tuesday. The front will have the biggest impact for Central Alabama on Tuesday, so I think that is the day with the most numerous showers and thunderstorms. SPC places much of the area along the front in a marginal risk for severe storms on Tuesday.

    For beach goers, great weather continues along the Northern Gulf Coast. You will see plenty of sun today and into next week with just a passing shower to deal with from time to time. Temperatures along the coast will be in the mid and upper 80s for highs while lows will be warm with values in the middle 70s. Water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was reported to be 83.3 degrees.

    In the tropics, the Atlantic Basin remains quiet with no development over the next few days. In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Blanca was tracking north and will make landfall along the southwestern Baja Coast later tonight or early Monday, but will be weakening at the time as she will be tracking over cooler waters. Winds are currently 115 mph.

    The front is expected to wash out in Central Alabama on Wednesday and Thursday, so we will need to continue to mention the possibility of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The model run this morning locates the upper ridge building back into the Southeast US more over Georgia, so we’ll have to keep an eye on the southerly flow that develops across the western Gulf of Mexico for any kind of development. The ridge will also help to see temperatures climb back into the 88 to 92 range for later in the week and into next weekend.

    After being fairly consistent from model run to model run, the GFS has backed off on the development of a low pressure system in the western Gulf around June 15th. Always wary when the model makes a dramatic change like this and wonder if it could be back on the next run. For now, just have to watch and see.

    James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Be aware of the heat and don’t overdo it. Have a great day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    Hot June Saturday

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/06/2015 - 15:21

    Some of the warmest temps so far this year are poised to affect Alabama this weekend. Already seeing plenty of upper 80s and lower 90s on the maps this afternoon. The sky is mainly sunny with a few of those cumulus clouds. There have been a few isolated storms on the radar today, but those have been mainly over South Alabama.

    Heading into tonight, expect mainly clear conditions with lows into the upper 60s. Then for Sunday, very similar to today, and we may see temps a degree or two higher. Expect plenty of sun, with 90s for most of Central Alabama.

    OZONE ALERT: Code Orange Air Quality Alert has been issued for Jefferson and Shelby Counties today. Ground level ozone will be at levels today that can be unhealthy for sensitive individuals, including people with asthma and children. If breathing becomes difficult, move indoors to an air conditioned area.

    Categories: Weather

    Code Orange Ozone Alert

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/06/2015 - 11:23

    A Code Orange Air Quality Alert has been issued for Jefferson and Shelby Counties for today.

    Ground level ozone will be at levels today that can be unhealthy for sensitive individuals, including people with asthma and children.

    Some actions you can take include:

    …Cut down on use of air conditioning by raising your thermostat.

    …Limit driving and combine your errands.

    …Car pool or use public transportation.

    …Limit use of gasoline powered tools.

    …Refuel after 6 p.m.

    …Limit your engine idling.

    ..Use chemicals in a manner that limit evaporation or wait until air quality is better.

    If breathing becomes difficult, move indoors to an air conditioned area.

    Here is the Air Quality Forecast for the Birmingham area from the Alabama Department of Emergency Management.

    Categories: Weather

    Forecast for D-Day

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/06/2015 - 09:00

    As German soldiers peered out from their bunkers along the French coast on the morning of June 5, 1944, they knew there was no way that the long awaited invasion by the Allies was coming that day. High winds, heavy rains and huge waves were pounding the beaches all along the English Channel that day.   June 5th had been the day that the invasion was scheduled to launch. But Allied weather forecasters had accurately predicted the terrible weather that occurred. If June 5th had been D-Day, the results would have been terrible.

    So the forecast had been accurate, staving off a disaster, but Allied commanders were nervous. The landings depended on a complex set of factors, including tides and moonlight and other things. The early June window for invasion was about to close and would not reopen for two weeks. The element of surprise was a huge factor, and waiting an two additional weeks would reduce the Allies chance of success. So as you can see, weather was critical in the decision making process.

    In April 1944, a joint Allied team of British and American forecasters had been established to create five day forecasts for commanders. A five day forecast was something that was unheard of at that time. Their first job was to pick a time that climatologically would be favorable for the invasion.   They chose early June. June 5th would be the day. But weather maps on June 3rd and 4th showed a depressing situation for forecasters and military leaders. Several low pressure systems were poised to move across the invasion area over the next several days.

    Allied forecasters had an advantage since their forces controlled most of the North Atlantic and weather data was more plentiful to them than to the Germans. This data revealed a small window of better weather that would occur on Tuesday, June 6th as a small ridge moved over the area between two low pressure troughs. The decision was made to go then.

    Allied Forces landed on the beaches of Normandy on the morning of June 6th, 1944,, opening the long-awaited second front against the Germans and spelling the beginning of the end of World War II. The Germans were completely caught by surprise. Their military leaders believed that the Allies would wait until there six good days of weather before crossing the channel. At the end of the first day, the Allies had suffered 12,000 casualties.   Commanders had expected as many as 75,000.

    Weather forecasting had played an important role in the success of the operation, but a closer look reveals that the German forecast was actually better than the Allied forecast.   The German predictions were actually closer to the actual wave heights, which were critical to the success of conveying men and materiel to the beaches on landing craft. The German forecast led them to them being relatively unprepared with their commander Irwin Rommel away from the field. The wave heights were actually above the critical threshold set by the Allies for invasion. If their forecast had been more correct, they might not have made the fortuitous decision to launch on June 6th.

    It really makes you stop to consider the relationship between accuracy and value in a forecast and how it is interpreted by its end users. Dr. Harold Brooks eloquently discussed this in episode 322 of WeatherBrains on June 4, 2012. Listen to the podcast.

    A final note: if the invasion had not occurred on the 6th, the next window of opportunity standpoint would have been the 17th through the 21st. A storm of historic proportions during that time could have proven disastrous for the invading forces.

    Categories: Weather

    Feeling Like Summer

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/06/2015 - 06:49

    Feeling more like summer today as temperatures close in on 90 degrees but showers will be hard to find.

    While I can’t rule out an isolated afternoon shower, most places will remain dry today and Sunday with high temperatures climbing close to or nudging the 90 degree mark.

    And the upper air weather pattern looks a lot like summer, too, as the westerlies and traveling weather systems remain well to our north along the Canadian border.  With a slight northwesterly flow and upper ridge to our west, heights should increase a bit allowing temperatures to edge into the 90s in Central Alabama once again.  A strong trough moves through the Great Lake region Monday and Tuesday and this will bring a cold front down into our area.  Precipitable water values should climb Monday and Tuesday bringing us a respectable chance for showers and thunderstorms especially into Tuesday.

    Upper ridging takes hold again for Wednesday and Thursday when we will see small chances for scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.  Another trough traversing the Great Lakes area Friday and Saturday will drag another front down into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys, but with the main westerlies well north of us, the front is not likely to get all the way into Alabama but may be close enough to enhance our shower chances into next weekend.

    Beach goers will enjoy plenty of sun while along the Gulf Coast this weekend and into next week with just a passing shower to deal with from time to time.  Temperatures along the coast will be in the mid and upper 80s for highs while lows will be warm with values in the middle 70s.  Gulf water temperature continued to rise with readings in the lower 80s at last check.

    Looking well out into the future, the GFS still maintains the possibility of a tropical system in the western Gulf around the 14th or 15th.  After that, the trend is for the development of a strong ridge over the Central Plains which could spell some excessive heat for the center of the country.

    I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here on Sunday morning.  Enjoy this fine summer-like day, but be mindful of the heat and don’t try to overdo it.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    June 5, 1976: The Teton Dam Collapse

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/05/2015 - 20:53

    The 305 foot tall Teton Dam designed to provide tremendous benefit to the farmers and residents of the Snake River area of Idaho. Built by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, it was supposed to eliminate the threat of spring floaods and provide year-round water for irrigation.

    The earthen dam had just been completed in June of 1976, and men and equipment were still on-site. But the dam was defective.

    Runoff from heavy snows during the winter had filled the reservoir behind the dam to capacity. Water began leaking from the dam on June 3rd, but there seemed to be no cause for alarm.

    By 9:30 a.m. on Saturday morning June 5th, new leaks were spotted and bulldozers were used to try and shore up the dam. By 10:30 a.m., warnings were frantic as officials warned residents below the dam that it was about to break. Around 11 a.m., a whirlpool appeared as water was pouring through the earthen dam. The hole in the dam enlarged to 25 feet in diameter, nearly swallowing a bulldozer working to plug the hole. Shortly after that, the western side of the dam seemed to crumble.

    Over 180 billion gallons of water were soon pouring down the Teton River Canyon. The towns of Wilford, Sugar City and Rexburg were inundated. Damages totaled $400 million. Eleven people lost their lives along with 13,000 head of cattle.

    Had the disaster occurred during the nighttime hours, the death toll would likely have been in the thousands as sleeping residents would not have had time to hear the warnings to evacuate.

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Watch to our West Tonight

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/05/2015 - 19:52

    Click image to enlarge.

    It’s the time of the year for northwesterly flow over Alabama, and that is the case this evening.

    These northwesterly flow events are notorious for spitting thunderstorm complexes at us as disturbances round the top of the ridge to our west and slide down its front side.

    That is happening this evening, as thunderstorms have developed over southern Missouri, intensified and are marching southeastward.

    A severe thunderstorm watch was issued just before 6:30 p.m. for parts of Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi.

    There have been reports of damaging winds and flash flooding with the storms, but nothing serious so far.

    They will fall apart well before reaching Alabama tonight, dying a slow death over northern Mississippi.

    Categories: Weather

    Hot June Weekend Ahead

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/05/2015 - 15:10

    **No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am live at the Steel City Jazz Festival in Linn Park in downtown Birmingham on ABC 33/40**

    RADAR CHECK: Another quiet afternoon across Alabama this afternoon, although we do note a few showers up in the Tennessee Valley close to Huntsville.

    These small showers will dissipate soon after dark.

    HEATING UP: We still project a high around 90 degrees tomorrow and Sunday; the sky will be partly to mostly sunny both days. While a few small, isolated afternoon showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours, the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in eight both days. Pretty much the same same situation Monday.

    NEXT WEEK: We expect an increase in the coverage of afternoon and evening showers and storms Tuesday through Friday as moisture levels rise, and the air aloft becomes a bit colder. Highs drop back into the 80s due to cloudy periods and the scattered showers.

    THE LAND OF VOODOO: The GFS continues to advertise a tropical low in the Southwest Gulf of Mexico at mid-month…

    There has been good run to run consistency in this feature, and it is a favored area for early season development. We will keep watching model trends.

    The Atlantic basin today is quiet, and over in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Blanca will move up toward the southern tip of Baja California this weekend while weakening rapidly.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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    Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

    Categories: Weather
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