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June 14 Weather Xtreme Video

Weather Xtreme Video - Sat, 06/14/2014 - 06:58
June 14 Weather Xtreme Video
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 167 1 ratings Time: 06:27 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Mostly Dry Weekend, Warmer Temps Ahead

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 06/14/2014 - 06:58

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A bit of a stationary boundary – hate to use the term front this time of year – was lying across Central Alabama this morning, and low level moisture was contributing to some fog across mainly the northern half of Alabama. Visibility was reduced to less than a mile in some spots but the fog should burn off fairly quickly with the rising sun. Dew points across the northern half of the state were generally in the 50s while readings were in the middle 60s across the southern section showing the slight difference in the atmosphere and hence the boundary. This should be enough to keep the northern half of the state dry today with only isolated showers possible across South Alabama and the coast.

The upper ridge will be gradually building into the eastern half of the country over the next several days. This will have two primary impacts on our weather. First, temperatures will gradually rise with widespread readings in the 90s by Tuesday and through much of the rest of the week. Second, it means a return of daily shower chances to the Southeast US.

The upper ridge is forecast to remain strong into the latter part of next week. A strong trough moving out of the northern Rockies by Friday should begin to cut into the ridge somewhat and bring our temperatures back closer to the 90-degree mark for highs. While verging on voodoo country, the GFS and the ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement on the approach of a cold front from the north and northwest next weekend. By suppressing the ridge somewhat and with increased clouds, temperatures should moderate a little with readings still warm but closer to seasonal values.

And be sure to watch the Weather Xtreme Video for a look at the potential for tropical mischief and perhaps a late June pattern that could signal cooler, wet weather for us.

Gulf Beaches: Nice weather along the beautiful sandy beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida in the days ahead. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lows will be in the lower 70s. Skies will be partly cloudy with only widely scattered storms in the forecast.

Tropics remain quiet in the Atlantic Basin while Hurricane Cristina moves westward in the Southeast Pacific.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Mostly Dry Weekend Ahead

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/13/2014 - 15:28

**No Weather Xtreme video today… I am in Gadsden for live weather from Riverfest on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6pm**

This afternoon’s discussion comes from Ryan Stinnett….

FRIDAY THE 13TH: No unlucky weather today, but we did have a round of rain with some rumbles of thunder move through this morning. This afternoon, we are seeing a mostly to partly cloudy sky and muggy conditions. We will maintain the risk of some scattered convection the rest of today, especially to the east, but in the upper-levels we are seeing some dry air work into the state. This dry air should allow us to decrease our rain chances heading through the overnight hours. With the clouds hanging tough, our afternoon highs remain below normal values and most locations will only see lower 80s.

RADAR CHECK: Most areas remain rain free, but we do have a few showers showing up on the old WSR-88D this afternoon. The isolated showers we are seeing are few and far between, and are mostly to the north of the Interstate 20 corridor. At 2 :30 there was a thunderstorm over Winston County moving towards the south, and we are likely to see convection through the rest of the afternoon.

FOR THE WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday look fairly decent. It appears we stay mostly dry tomorrow, with a few more showers for Sunday. We will see more sun than clouds both days. Expect warm afternoon with highs in the upper 80s for most locals and muggy and mild overnights as lows will range from 67-71.

SEVERE WEATHER: There are two risks across the northern and southern Plains today, where large hail and damaging winds are expected. For Saturday, the SPC is expecting quite the severe weather event in the Central Plains and have issued a moderate risk for parts of Nebraska, Iowa, and Kansas. Damaging winds and tornadoes are possible, but the greatest threat appears to be hail. Forecast discussions across the risk area have the wording “giant hail” which is very rare. Hail baseball to softball size will be possible.

HURRICANE CRISTINA: Is weakening as she tracks west across the eastern Pacific. After having winds of 150 mph yesterday, her winds are down to 100 mph. For the Atlantic, no activity to mention and nothing is expected over the next several days.

AT THE BEACH: If you are heading down to the Gulf, the weather should cooperate. Scattered showers and storms today, but heading into the weekend the convection becomes more isolated. A few storms will develop along the sea breeze each afternoon, but overall, there will be a mix of sun and clouds. Expect 6-8 hours of sun each day, and highs in the mid-80s, with overnights in the mid-70s. Water temps are mighty nice and are in the lower 80s from Panama City to Gulf Shores.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge is still expected to build in over the Southeast and that will lead to lower rain chances and warmer temps. We should see mainly afternoon convection that will be driven by the heat of the day and will wind down each evening once the sun sets. Early in the week, highs should be in the upper 80s, but heading through the week, those are likely to creep up into the 90s.

My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. Monday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

June 13 Weather Xtreme Video

Weather Xtreme Video - Fri, 06/13/2014 - 06:08
June 13 Weather Xtreme Video
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 538 5 ratings Time: 05:20 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Wet At Times Today; A Drier Weekend

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/13/2014 - 06:08

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FRIDAY THE 13TH: A batch of showers and strong storms is moving through Central Alabama at daybreak…

This mass of rain will move southeast over the next few hours with some thunder and lightning, but the storms involved will be below severe limits.

REST OF THE DAY: The high resolution HRRR model hints the most organized this morning will be along and south of I-20, with showers to the north being more scattered in nature. Still, all of Alabama will have a chance of showers and storms today with a mostly cloudy sky and a high in the mid 80s. Showers will fade away early tonight as drier air begins to push into the state.

DRIER WEEKEND: The Alabama weekend continues to look mostly rain-free. A few isolated showers could show up somewhere during the afternoon hours, but the chance of any one spot getting wet is only about one in ten both days. Afternoon highs rise into the upper 80s with a good supply of sunshine both days.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like a pretty routine summer weather pattern. Partly sunny days, with the chance of a few spots seeing an afternoon shower of thunderstorm. Probability of any one spot getting wet each afternoon will run in the 20-30 percent range, with potential for higher shower coverage late in the week. Highs will be pretty close to 90 degrees. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through early next week.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through early next week from Panama City to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and storms. Highs on the coast in the 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the low 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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I will be live from Riverfest in Gadsden this evening on ABC 33/40 News at 4, 5, and 6:00… so no afternoon video today, but I will post some forecast notes this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Central Mississippi Storms Holding Together

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/13/2014 - 00:52

Strong storms tonight from Greenwood to Grenada/Winona to near Houston to west of Starkville are rotating east southeastward tonight and will reach West Alabama’s Pickens County before 2:30 a.m.

They will reach Tuscaloosa by 3:30 a.m. and the Birmingham area by 4:30 a.m.

They contain lots of lightning and torrential rains and gusty winds.

They are not expected to be severe, but a few isolated severe reports are possible.

We will monitor them through the night.

Categories: Weather

Storms Weaker, But Still Packing a Punch

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 06/13/2014 - 00:13

No more reports of severe weather have been received in the last 90 minutes from the storms near Caledonia MS, so the NWS Memphis has opted to issue a significant weather alert for Lowndes County MS instead of a severe thunderstorm warning.

You can see that the lead storms have gusted out with an outflow boundary having emanated from them.

The storms across northern Mississippi are not producing severe weather, but they are causing lots of lightning and torrential rains.

The storms have left a legacy of flash flood warnings across northern Mississippi.

There could be a few isolated reports of severe weather as the storms progress east southeastward into our state.

Categories: Weather

Northern Mississippi Storms Heading Our Way

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 23:36

Heavy thunderstorms are over northern Mississippi tonight, and as we expected, they are about to enter Northwest Alabama.

The lead storm is near Aberdeen MS and has a severe thunderstorm warning on it.

This storm is less than an hour from Alabama’s Lamar County.

Additional intense storms near Grenada and from Water Valley back to Batesville in Mississippi are packing a punch too, although they are not severe.

Everything is moving ESE at about 20 mph.

Categories: Weather

Showers/Storms Increase Tomorrow

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 15:40

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: We have just a few isolated showers over East Alabama this afternoon… a large percentage of Alabama is rain-free for a change. Temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

The showers over East Alabama will end this evening.

TO THE WEST: SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe weather through tonight from Mississippi to Texas, where a short wave will bring strong to severe storms. These storms will likely enter West Alabama very early tomorrow morning, possibly before daybreak.

Tomorrow will feature a mostly cloudy sky, with a few showers and storms likely. It could very well be a situation where the best chance of rain will come during the morning hours, but we will carry the chance of showers through the afternoon. While a few strong storms are possible, organized severe weather is not expected, and rain amounts of around 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely with a high in the low to mid 80s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Our weather is looking generally dry Saturday and Sunday. Partly to mostly sunny both days with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Chance of any one spot getting wet both days is only about one in eight, and the high will be mostly in the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS model is suggesting the upper high will form around the North Carolina coast, and here in Alabama we will roll with a typical summer forecast for the first half of the week. Mixed sun and clouds each day Monday through Wednesday with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will be in the 87-90 degree range.

Showers and storms should increase late in the week on Thursday and Friday as a surface boundary approaches from the north. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, but over in the East Pacific Hurricane Cristina, off the coast of Mexico, is packing sustained winds of 150 mph. It will not impact any land area, and will weaken this weekend as it moves over colder water.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend, with a few scattered showers and storms possible. Showers will thin out Saturday and Sunday… highs will remain in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the low 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

June 12 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 15:36
June 12 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 310 3 ratings Time: 05:26 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

More Storms Late Tonight/Early Friday

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 12:46

It is not hard to find our upper low this morning. It still shows up clearly in regional radar mosaics and visible satellite imagery over North Georgia. You can see that in the larger panel of the graphic.

Click image to enlarge.

There is one severe thunderstorm warning over South Georgia, but it is of no consequence to Alabama.

To the west, there is a large slight risk severe weather outlook from Central Mississippi back into Texas. A complex of thunderstorms over East Texas will spread eastward into increasingly unstable air and will produce a threat of severe weather across much of Louisiana , southern Arkansas and into western Mississippi tonight.

You can see the severe weather outlook and current radar in the top left panel of the graphic.

Temperatures are climbing through into or through the lower 80s now across Central Alabama. There is a nice field of cumulus clouds developing in the slightly unstable air over the state in the wake of the upper low. There could be a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon, but precipitation coverage will be around 20% or less.

The Texas storms will limp into Alabama after midnight, weakening a bit as they go and organized severe weather is not expected. Look at the lower left panel to see the NAM’s output for what the radar might look like at 4 a.m.

Categories: Weather

June 12 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 05:54
June 12 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 580 5 ratings Time: 05:27 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Drier Today; Storms Return Tomorrow

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 06/12/2014 - 05:53

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

NOT AS MANY SHOWERS: Understand there is almost always some risk of a shower or thunderstorm on any given day here in Alabama, but showers will be fewer in number today as an upper trough axis passes east of the state. The sky will be partly sunny today, and the chance of any one spot getting wet this afternoon will be about one in five. The high will be around 85, a little below the average high of 87 for June 12, but considerable warmer than yesterday’s official high in Birmingham of 78.

TO THE WEST: SPC has a standard “slight risk” of severe weather up from Mississippi to Texas…

Another short wave will trigger numerous storms in this zone later today and tonight, and those could produce hail and damaging winds. Thankfully SPC does not have any part of Alabama in a severe weather risk tomorrow as the dynamic support will be weaker, but clearly there will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms on “Friday the 13th”.

It won’t rain all day tomorrow, but it could rain at any time, and a heavy downpour or two is certainly possible. We won’t get past the mid 80s, and some places might have a hard time getting out of the 70s due to clouds and rain.

OUR WEEKEND: That impulse moves east of the state, and the weekend should feature a pretty decent amount of sunshine Saturday and Sunday. Yes, we will have a chance of showers, but they will be widely separated, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. It will be warmer with a high in the mid to upper 80s both days.

NEXT WEEK: Unfortunately the GFS is now suggesting that the building upper high won’t be on top of us, but more northeast of here, meaning the first few days of the week might not be a dry as hoped earlier. Looks like we will need to broad brush the first half of the week with the standard summer forecast… partly sunny with “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” along with a high in the 87-90 degree range each day. Showers and storms could increase again toward the end of the week with a surface boundary approaching from the north. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: The weather not too bad from Panama City over to Gulf Shores through the weekend. At least 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each with some risk of scattered showers and storms; showers will thin out this weekend. Highs in the 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 79 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Heavy Showers in the Birmingham Area

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 17:46

Some very heavy downpours are over the Birmingham area right now. An areal flood advisory for Jefferson County.

The heaviest rainfall extends from the Oxmoor Valley near Ross Bridge to Green Springs and Homewood. There is a little bit of lightning in the Birmingham area, but not much.

Other heavy cells are east of Jasper, in the Chelsea area. Others are west of Centreville/Brent.

Everything is moving east northeast.

Categories: Weather

Showers Thin Out Tomorrow

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 15:50

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: We have scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across Alabama this afternoon thanks to an upper trough passing overhead.

The rain is heavy in spots, but there is very little lighting, and most places are rain cooled with temperatures only in the 70s.

TOMORROW: The day should be drier as the trough axis moves west of the state. Afternoon showers should be widely spaced, the sky will be partly sunny, and the high will be in the mid 80s.

TO THE WEST: SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up from Mississippi to Texas, where severe storms will likely develop ahead of another upper trough. Some of these storms could move into Alabama late tomorrow night, but they should be in a weakening phase when they arrive here.

On Friday we will forecast scattered to numerous showers and storms, with a few strong ones possible, as the trough swings through. It won’t rain all day, however, and the sun could peek out at times.

OUR WEEKEND: The weather trends drier. We will mention scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. Chance of any one spot getting wet Saturday is about one in three, and the best chance of a shower or storm will come from about 2:00 p.m. until 8:00 p.m. Then, Sunday looks mostly dry with only widely scattered afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s both days.

NEXT WEEK: An upper high will build over the region, meaning hotter afternoon temperatures and fewer showers. There is always some risk of a shower or storm on summer afternoons in Alabama, but they should be few and far between during the first half of the week. Highs will be at or just over 90 degrees.

AT THE BEACH: About 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day through Sunday with a few scattered showers and storms. Showers should be most numerous on Friday. Highs in the 80s from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, with sea water temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s. No sign of any tropical issues anytime soon as the Atlantic basin is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

June 11 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 15:47
June 11 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 250 5 ratings Time: 05:56 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Radar Has the Measles

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 14:05

Showers are forming this afternoon ahead of our approaching upper level trough. The radar looks like it has acquired a case of the measles.

The showers have reached heights of about 25,000 feet so it won’t be long until we see some lightning.

Here is a close up of the radar:

We are using the composite reflectivity product, which shows the amount of precipitation held aloft as well and can show where heavy precipitation is about to fall as well as might be falling.

No severe weather is expected this afternoon but be alert for brief heavy rain and lightning.

We should find ourselves on the back side of the trough tonight leading to sinking air and fewer showers late tonight and tomorrow.

Categories: Weather

Occasional Showers; Drier Next Week

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 05:55

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SOGGY PATTERN CONTINUES: At daybreak a band of showers is moving through East Alabama… this will be in Georgia soon, and we should have a decent break from the rain for several hours this morning.

Expect more showers and thunderstorms to form this afternoon as the upper trough axis passes overhead. But today we don’t expect severe storms, and the rain won’t heavy enough for flash flooding. The sky will remain generally cloudy, and the high will be somewhere between 80 and 84 degrees.

DRIER TOMORROW: The trough axis will be east of the state, and showers become widely scattered tomorrow. The sky will be partly sunny, and the high will be in the mid 80s. Any showers tomorrow should come during the afternoon and evening hours, and the chance of any one spot getting wet is only in the 20 percent range.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY: Showers and storms will increase again Friday as another upper trough approaches. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely; the high will be in the mid 80s. We will maintain the chance of a few passing showers and storms during the day Saturday with a mix of sun and clouds. No “all day” rain, but if you have something planned outside just understand you might get wet a time or two. The GFS is printing a high of 86 degrees Saturday afternoon.

SUNDAY: We trend drier as that trough axis begins to move away. We will enjoy a decent amount of sunshine Sunday, and afternoon showers should be widely spaced. The high will be in the upper 80s.

NEXT WEEK: An upper high builds across the Deep South, meaning the week begins with hotter, and mostly rain-free weather. Look for mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will rise into the 89 to 93 degree range. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Showers and storms are likely today on the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Then, tomorrow through the weekend, we expect about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine each day with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s now.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

Categories: Weather

June 11 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Wed, 06/11/2014 - 05:55
June 11 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 568 6 ratings Time: 04:43 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

More Storms Overnight?

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 06/10/2014 - 20:19

Here is an update on the Alabama weather situation:

Thunderstorms plagued Alabama again today, but damage was limited to 7 wind damage and 1 large hail report over Northeast Alabama and 3 wind damage reports over South Central Alabama. Those storms are into eastern Georgia, northwestern South Carolina and western North Carolina.

We are tracking two areas of storms here in Alabama tonight. One is over Southwest Alabama’s Baldwin County, moving into the Pensacola area. The heaviest weather is staying close to the beaches. The northern extent of this area of storms has been falling apart as it tried to edge northeastward. The likely reason for the weakening is some convective inhibition that is over almost all of the rest of Alabama.

Over Mississippi, a line of storms has formed from about 50 miles west of Columbus to near Jackson. They developed in a spoke of vorticity rotating around the big upper low near St. Louis. These storms will run into that convective inhibition over Alabama, as well as a lack of instability and should fall apart.

One of our main mesoscale models develops another bands of rain and thunderstorms overnight over Alabama. There is a decent 850mb jet extending from the Louisiana coast into Northwest Alabama. This could funnel warm, moist air ahead into the storms like a conveyor belt overnight and make the storms happen. Severe weather is not expected, but if the storms do form, there will be heavy rain and lots of thunder where the storms do develop.

Here is the 4 km NAM at 6 a.m. tomorrow morning:

The HRRR does show a developing band of showers over South Alabama east of I-65 and south of I-85 after midnight. The model output is not out far enough now to show what will happen beyond that.

The RPM doesn’t buy into the idea of a band of storms overnight. It develops numerous showers across the area during the day tomorrow, showing the upper low moving into northern Mississippi. Here is that model’s forecast radar for tomorrow at 2 p.m.

The GFS shows high rain chances again tomorrow as the upper trough slowly slides into North Alabama.

We will be watching.

Categories: Weather