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Tropical Depression Four Forms

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 08/18/2015 - 10:50

Tropical Depression Four has formed in the Atlantic a little more than 1,600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

The depression is moving just north of west at 13 mph.

Top winds are 35 mph according to satellite estimates and the central pressure is estimated at 1009 mb.

The system will likely become Tropical Storm Danny tonight or early Wednesday. It should become a hurricane by Friday.

But the system will weaken as it approaches the islands over the weekend. It may well get into the eastern Caribbean, but it will encounter more unfavorable conditions and could weaken further.

By late in the weekend, the Bermuda high should start to weaken and a trough will develop over the East Coast. I don’t think this trough will be strong enough to recurve Danny if the tropical cyclone holds together. It could deflect Danny into South Florida. Or it could build back in time to keep Danny steaming on a westward course across the Caribbean. We will wait and see!

Categories: Weather

Wet, Unsettled Pattern Continues

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 08/18/2015 - 06:28

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS: Another wet day is shaping up for Alabama… we have a number of showers and storms in progress as the sun comes up…

A broad upper trough to the west will keep a good chance of occasional showers and storms in our forecast through mid-week. Understand there will be some nice breaks in the rain, and the sun could very well pop out at times, but you need to be ready for rain at just about any hour of the day or night through Thursday.

On the positive side, severe storms are not expected, and highs will be only in the 80s due to the clouds and showers. Interesting to note yesterday’s high in Birmingham was only 79 degrees… within three degrees of the record low maximum for August 17… 76 set in 1973.

TO THE NORTH: A deep upper trough will bring the risk of severe storms to parts of the Great Plains today, but that feature will pass well to the north of Alabama later in the week, with the severe weather threat remaining to the north as well.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will still forecast scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday with some sun at times, but Sunday should be brighter with showers and storms becoming fewer in number. The high will be back around 90 degrees by the weekend.

NEXT WEEK: The latest GFS is suggesting a dry, continental airmass has a chance of moving down into the northern half of Alabama early in the week, with potential for some upper 50s early Tuesday. Not totally convinced this will happen, but potential is there. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details. One way or another, next week will be drier.

TROPICS: The wave in the Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm during the next 48 hours as it moves to the west/northwest. This feature is moving just below a layer of very dry air, and there isn’t much shear. So, this might become a hurricane by the end of the week. Long range model data shows it near Hispaniola early next week, and it remains to be seen if this survives, and if it will have a chance of impacting the U.S.

Again, watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details on this.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we produced last night in Norman, Oklahoma.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be traveling back to Alabama later today… so I doubt if I can produce an afternoon video, but I will post forecast notes here on the blog by 4:00. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 499: Aubrey Can’t Go Own

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 08/18/2015 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 499 is now online (August 17, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is co-founder and CTO of Green Electronics, the makers of the RainMachine. He is managing a team of hardware and software developers that focus on the industrial design, network architecture and hardware implementation aspects of the RainMachine product line. He is a strong proponent of OpenSource frameworks involving water conservation projects where increased conservation and efficiency can be achieved though better access of environmental information. Andrei Bulucea, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a native of Southern California and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma. He worked with Gary England in Oklahoma City before moving to Kansas City in 1992. He became the Chief Meteorologist at KSHB in 1999, where he has been ever since. Gary Lezak, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 122 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Stanley, ID
  • Tropics still quiet but disturbed area in far Atlantic
  • Next week is show #500!
  • Heat in Oklahoma but about to change
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer is back to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Our guest WeatherBrain last week mentioned storm surge and how it is often overlooked as being deadly. This prompted a little research on the topic from the helpful archives of the National Hurricane Center. And this will be the first of three episodes on storm surge.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 499:

Weather2020

WeatherRate web site

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Bill Murray – How California is winning the drought

Brian Peters – Old Farmers Almanac gets ripped

Kevin Selle – Digital Meteorologist story

Rick Smith – Do You Have What It Takes to Predict the Future?

James Spann – Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

Aubrey Urbanowitcz – These countries have the best weather

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 499: Aubrey Can’t Go On

WeatherBrains - Tue, 08/18/2015 - 04:45

WeatherBrains Episode 499 is now online (August 17, 2015). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is co-founder and CTO of Green Electronics, the makers of the RainMachine. He is managing a team of hardware and software developers that focus on the industrial design, network architecture and hardware implementation aspects of the RainMachine product line. He is a strong proponent of OpenSource frameworks involving water conservation projects where increased conservation and efficiency can be achieved though better access of environmental information. Andrei Bulucea, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is a native of Southern California and a graduate of the University of Oklahoma. He worked with Gary England in Oklahoma City before moving to Kansas City in 1992. He became the Chief Meteorologist at KSHB in 1999, where he has been ever since. Gary Lezak, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

      • Extremes: 122 at Death Valley, CA, and 27 at Stanley, ID
      • Tropics still quiet but disturbed area in far Atlantic
      • Next week is show #500!
      • Heat in Oklahoma but about to change
      • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
      • and more!

Our email bag officer is back to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Our guest WeatherBrain last week mentioned storm surge and how it is often overlooked as being deadly. This prompted a little research on the topic from the helpful archives of the National Hurricane Center. And this will be the first of three episodes on storm surge.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 499:

Weather2020

WeatherRate web site

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Bill Murray – How California is winning the drought

Brian Peters – Old Farmers Almanac gets ripped

Kevin Selle – Digital Meteorologist story

Rick Smith – Do You Have What It Takes to Predict the Future?

James Spann – Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

Aubrey Urbanowitcz – These countries have the best weather

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Wet At Times Through Mid-Week

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/17/2015 - 15:24

RADAR CHECK: As expected, rain and storms are rather widespread across Alabama today…

Storms are well below severe limits, but the stronger ones are producing torrential rain and a good bit of lightning. Rain and storms are moving northeast, and we will maintain a good chance of rain at times through the night. Temperatures are only in the 70s due to the clouds and rain. Quite a break from the summer heat.

REST OF THE WEEK: The broad upper feature responsible for today’s wet weather won’t change much, so our weather will remain wet at times all the way through at least Friday. Expect periods of rain daily, along with a few thunderstorms. There will be some good breaks in the rain, and the sun could peek out at times, but the overall pattern will be wet. Additional rain amounts of 2-3 inches are likely through the end of the week.

We should note a strong upper trough will pass north of Alabama this week, and will bring the risk of severe storms to parts of the Great Plains and the Midwest, but the dynamic forcing with that feature should remain well to the north of us, and severe weather is not expected to be an issue here.

And, on the positive side, because of the lack of sun we expect highs to remain below 90 through Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The upper trough over the region will weaken, so we should begin to see some good intervals of sunshine Saturday and Sunday, but scattered showers and storms remain likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. We project highs between 87 and 90 degrees both days.

Next week should be warmer and drier, although the risk of at least “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms” will need to stay in the forecast. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 3 to 5 hours of sunshine daily on the coast from Gulf Shores west to Panama City Beach for the rest of the week, with a few passing showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs will be in the 80s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: The wave in the eastern Atlantic has a decent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Danny later this week… it will move to the west/northwest just south of a layer of very dry air. It remains to be seen if this will impact the U.S., or any land mass.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT live from Norman, OK… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Tropical Action

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/17/2015 - 09:10

It has been very, very quiet across the Atlantic basin this season, which is expected during an El Nino year. But, we have a wave in the far eastern Atlantic with a good chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next five days…

The wave will move to the west/northwest…

And, most tropical models ramp this up into Tropical Storm Danny by late week…

Way too early to determine if this will impact the U.S. or any land mass.?

Categories: Weather

Remembering 1969’s Hurricane Camille

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/17/2015 - 07:00

THIS IS HISTORICAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE CAMILLE FROM 1969

Pete Wentzell was 10 years old. He lived in Biloxi, in a one story ranch home directly across Highway 90 from the beautiful Gulf of Mexico. His memories are of an idyllic childhood on the Mississippi Gulf Coast, until August 17, 1969. He remembers the sugar cane that grew right outside their kitchen window. The beach was taken for granted. Summer meant beat up tennis shoes and cutoff shorts, crabbing in the warm Gulf waters at low tide with a kerosene lantern and a gig for any unsuspecting flounder he might find. He could bicycle anyplace he wanted. He had a secret hiding place in a grove of sugar cane.

Pete remembers waking up at 3 a.m. on Sunday, August 17, 1969. Something was eerily wrong in those early pre-dawn hours. He didn’t know what it was, but it terrified him. He could smell coffee. His dad was in the living room in front of the family’s Curtis Mathes console stereo listening to the radio, plotting latitude and longitude coordinates on a hurricane tracking chart. The windows had been boarded up during while Pete slept.

His father had been a military weather forecaster during World War II in Europe. The newscaster’s tone was serious as he reported that the National Hurricane Center Director Robert Simpson was saying that Camille was going to be an unprecedented storm.

Pete’s father told the youngster that the family was going to evacuate their home. Evacuate! That had never happened before. There had been other hurricanes, like 1965’s Hurricane Betsy.

Pete was told to pack clothes in a suitcase. Clothes for summer, fall, and winter. Being an avid fan of toy cars, Pete chose to use his luggage space for his prized Matchbox City. Of course, he failed inspection later, and the toys were replaced with the clothes. He was not worried. They would be back tomorrow. Everything would be okay.

Pete’s dad was like many grownups along the Mississippi coast early on that Sunday morning, August 17, 1969. They had their tracking charts, some of them magnetic, some paper. This hurricane was not turning northward toward Northwest Florida…it was still moving northwest.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and at the Weather Bureau Hurricane Warning Office in New Orleans were coming to the realization that the northward turn was not materializing. This storm was threatening areas west of the hurricane warning. The 5 a.m. CDT advisory was radically different…

Of course, Camille was drawing a bead on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. A total of 143 people died on the coast, and 27 were never found.

Categories: Weather

Summer Rain

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 08/17/2015 - 05:00

WET PATTERN SETTING UP: An upper low has formed just west of Alabama, and that feature will just hang around much of the week, setting up a wet and unsettled weather pattern.

We expect mostly cloudy weather statewide through tonight, with periods of rain and a few thunderstorms. Nothing severe, but a strong storm is possible in a few spots. And, because of the clouds and rain, we won’t get past the low 80s today. That is about ten degrees below average for the middle of August in Alabama.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change. Generally cloudy weather with scattered to numerous showers and storms on a daily basis through Friday. You will see the sun at times, and there will be some pretty good breaks in the rain, but a shower or storm could come at almost anytime in this kind of pattern, even late at night or during the morning.

Five day rain totals of around two inches are likely, with some spots possibly getting more.

We do note a strong cold front for mid-August will bring the risk of severe weather across parts of the Great Plains today and tomorrow, but that front is not expected to make it through Alabama, and we don’t expect any organized severe weather this week.

THE WEEKEND: While scattered showers and storms are certainly possible Saturday and Sunday, if not likely, they will be a little fewer in number as the upper low weakens and lifts out. Then, expect drier and hotter weather for the first few days of next week with highs going back into the low 90s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Only about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine each day through mid-week along the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with occasional passing showers or storms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the low 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic actually has some chance of developing over the next few days as it moves to the west/northwest… we will keep an eye on it. A long way away, however…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight live from Norman, Oklahoma… you can watch it at 8:30 CT on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Due to my travel out to Oklahoma for tonight’s show, just one Weather Xtreme video today and tomorrow, but I will post some forecast notes by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Invest 96L To Be TD#4/Danny?

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/16/2015 - 16:27

The tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic approaching 30W longitude has a surface low associated with it now and it is increasingly looking like it will become tropical depression number four in the next couple of days. The NHC now puts the probability of that happening in the next 48 hours at 50 percent and the probability in the next 5 days at 60 mph.

Wind shear is low in the vicinity of the system, which enhances the potential for development. It will be moving over warm sea water, running between 27.5-28C, which is above the 26.5C threshold. It is ensconced in high humidity air for now, which should not serve as a serious impediment.

The SHIPS model shows that the disturbance could become a depression anytime, a tropical storm by Monday morning and a hurricane by 60 hours, which is early Wednesday morning.

The morning run of the GFS was not very bullish on the storm becoming very strong, running it into some more substantial shear as it moves into the middle of the Atlantic between the Caribbean and the Cape Verdes. It also turns the system out to the northeast before it reaches the islands.

Interestingly, the GFS develops a couple of additional tropical cyclones behind this one, with the next one reaching the islands around the first of the month. With a ridge developed back to the north of it, that system could get into the Caribbean.

The next named storm will be Danny. The next will be Erika. The 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season is not dead just yet.

Categories: Weather

A Critical Mission

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/16/2015 - 14:30

On this date in 1969, National Hurricane Center Director Bob Simpson knew that he had a big problem. There was a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico, some 360 miles south of Panama City, Florida. It was moving slowly toward the north northwest on an inevitable collision course with the northern Gulf Coast.

The Weather Bureau’s main computer model, the primitive statistical/dynamic NHC-67, showed that Camille was going to turn north and then northeast and impact the coast near Fort Walton Beach. But in addition to the worrisome track forecast, Simpson was concerned that Camille had grown into a monster hurricane. He just had no idea how strong it was.

The Navy was responsible for flying reconnaissance missions over the Gulf then and most of their planes were tasked to seed Hurricane Debbie in the Atlantic as part of Project Stormfury. The two remaining old planes left in Jacksonville were unable to fly into a strong hurricane. They were sending back radar triangulations of the center from the radar’s on the Connies that they were flying and dropping dropsondes well away from the center. That Saturday morning, the dropsonde released 40 miles from the center recorded a pressure of 996 millibars.

Satellite photos showed that the storm was getting better organized, but the imagery was rudimentary compared to what we have today. Forecasters had estimated that winds had increased to 115 mph. Simpson feared they were much higher.

Simpson asked the Air Weather Service in Illinois to send an Air Force C-130 into the storm that afternoon and they found the central pressure had rapidly dropped to 908 mb, very nearly the record for the western Hemisphere. This is the transcribed report from the plane, written by Dr. Simpson himself.

On the next advisory, the winds were increased to 150 mph. The mission allowed forecasters to highlight the extreme threat that Camille presented to the Gulf Coast.

Camille would go on to devastate the Mississippi Gulf Coast on the evening of August 17th, forever changing the landscape and history of the area.

Categories: Weather

Showers, Storms Forming

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/16/2015 - 13:26

Showers and thunderstorms have developed in two main bands across Central Alabama as convective temperatures have been reached.

They will continue to fire all across Central Alabama this afternoon .

They will pack lots of lightning, some gusty winds and heavy rain as they push northward.

Temperatures are in the middle to upper 80s.

Additional showers and storms along the Gulf Coast will push northward overnight as well. There are signs Monday morning could be a wet one across the area.

Wet will be the theme for the coming week with very high moisture levels, an upper level trough and an approaching cold front late in the week.

Categories: Weather

Unsettled Weather Ahead

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 08/16/2015 - 07:42

Thunderstorms were a bit more prevalent for the area of Alabama generally north and west of the Interstate corridor yesterday with a couple of storms packing a sizable punch. Today we will continue to deal with the upper level trough evident over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Radar this morning already shows some showers northwest of a Jasper to Cullman to Scottsboro line and another area of showers was located across the Alabama and Northwest Florida coastal area moving steadily north-northwestward.

The presence of added showers and storms along with clouds should keep temperatures down today with most places reaching into the middle and upper 80s for highs. While it will be possible that a break in the clouds will allow some locations to get more sun and reach near 90 degrees, I think those spots will be the exception.

Looks a little wetter for today and the week ahead for beachgoers. Better than average rain chances will stay in the forecast as a strong southerly flow continues across the Southeast US. Showers will be a daily threat, but there will still be some periods of sunshine. Temperatures along the beaches should top out in the mid-80s each day, while overnight lows will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Sea water temperature was running 83 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit along the northern Gulf Coast.

The weak upper trough is forecast to stay basically in place over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and just to our west, so this will keep us on the more active side of the trough and in a good southerly flow with a surface high pressure off in the Atlantic and a robust surface low moving through the Central Plains and into the Great Lakes area by Wednesday, keeping Central Alabama in a wet air mass and pretty much with showers and thunderstorms likely each day through the middle of the week.

Like we saw yesterday, SPC has the main risk of severe weather well to our northwest in parts of Northeast Colorado, Nebraska, and Iowa. Day 2 that risk drops southward a bit covering all of eastern Colorado and a sizable chunk of Kansas and Nebraska. For Day 3 the risk moves off the eastern slope of the Rockies a bit and on Day 4 the risk is just to our northwest as the frontal system and upper through move across the Great Lakes and the Central US.

With precipitable water values climbing up to around the 2-inch mark and the presence of the weak upper trough until the stronger trough arrives late Wednesday and into Thursday, we will stay in an unsettled weather pattern with showers and thunderstorms possible just about any time, not just the heat of the afternoon. With the presence of clouds and showers, I anticipate our afternoon highs to be held in the 80s. But it is August, so a break in the cloud cover for even a little longer period could spur some spots to reach the 90 degree range.

The strong upper trough moves by us on Friday, but we don’t get a real change in the air mass, so precipitable water values will hold on the highs side. At least for now, we should see fewer showers since the strong dynamics will be further north of Central Alabama.

Looking way out into Week 2, the GFS brings a strong upper ridge back into the picture with another bout with heat for the Southwest US. Fortunately, the GFS is also suggesting that the heat ridge will be fairly short lived with a trough affecting the eastern half of the country around August 31st. But be sure to watch the whole video for an interesting twist coming from the ECMWF.

James Spann should be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. I’m going to be at Magnolia Manor later today to handle the emcee duties for the introduction of the latest Helena Belles. Enjoy the day and stay dry! Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Storms West, Sun East

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/15/2015 - 15:06

Most of Central Alabama is seeing more sun than clouds, but we are seeing a lot more cloud cover over West and Northwest Alabama. We can see that in the visible satellite image below. Lots of those puffy white clouds showing up, while most of the state bask in sunshine.

Where it is raining we are seeing temps in the 70s and 80s, where it is not, upper 80s and lower 90s are more common. For the most part, it is a hot and humid day across much of North-Central Alabama .

Showers and storms continue to impact many locations across West and Northwest Alabama. We continue to see the bulk of the convection west of Interstate 65 with a few storms scattered elsewhere across the state.

Heavy rain and lots of lightning are the main threats with these storms. There could be a few isolated areas of localized flooding for some areas seeing the storms today. These showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and evening, and should begin to wind down slowly once the sun sets and daytime heating is loss.

Tomorrow will be very similar to today. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with highs into the 90s. We will see scattered showers and storms once again, but like today, not everyone will see rain, and the vast majority of us will be stay dry.

Categories: Weather

West Alabama Storms

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/15/2015 - 13:25

As we have seen the past few days, a weak boundary has been moving across the state. It is moving from east to west, and today it is over West Alabama. It is providing enough uplift to allow the warm and moist air mass over the state to develop plenty of showers and storms.

These storms are not moving much, and the ones that are, have a general northwesterly movement. These storms are producing a lot of lightning, gusty winds, and very heavy rainfall. We have seen a flash flood warning across the Tennessee Valley and we could see a few localized areas of flooding with some of the more intense storms. Just about every storm is west of Interstate 65 and the U.S. 43 corridor is being impacted from the Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley.

Today’s showers and storms will continue through the afternoon and evening, and should begin to wind down slowly once the sun sets and daytime heating is loss.

Categories: Weather

Summer-like Weekend

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 08/15/2015 - 07:54

Nice to see temperatures down a little since we know that August in the Southeast US can be unrelentingly hot. Anniston only reached 88 for the high yesterday with 91 in Birmingham, 90 at the Shelby County Airport, and 95 at Tuscaloosa. We’re starting out the day with some clouds and actually a few small showers showing up on the radar across the northern third of Alabama. Morning temperature values were mainly in the lower 70s, but dew points were still high with reporting stations mainly around 70 making it a bit muggy.

The weather pattern continued to present with a trough over the eastern US and the heat ridge along the eastern slope of the Rockies. This translated to some heat advisories and red flag warnings for the North Central US with extreme heat warnings for the Southwest US.

For the Southeast US, a small chance of showers will exist for the weekend, both today and Sunday. Rain chances are expected to go up as we start next week. A strong short wave moving across the northern tier of the US will be accompanied by a surface low with a cold front trailing southwestward into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should lead to better coverage of showers for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

The trough moves on by us Thursday and Friday, but another short wave begins to enter the northwest corner of the US Thursday and Friday. This will keep the Southeast US in a weak ridge pattern. Since the front will not be blasting through the area, we can expect to keep some mention of showers in the forecast all the way to next weekend.

BEACH WEATHER: Beachgoers can expect 6 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast from Dauphin Island eastward to Panama City Beach with the risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs will stay in the upper 80s on the coast with lower 90s expected slightly inland. Sea water temperature remained mostly in the mid 80s and much of the Gulf of Mexico remained fairly warm as the graphic shows.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS continued to be on the unsettled side with a fairly strong short wave around the 25th and 26th of August followed fairly closely by another substantial trough around the 30th. This pattern does not favor dry weather, but at least there were no impending signs of any king of extreme heat in our future.

I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video here on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Scattered Showers/Storms Return

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/14/2015 - 15:20

RADAR CHECK: As expected, we have showers and thunderstorms across North/Central Alabama this afternoon in scattered, random locations.

The storms are drifting to the northwest, and are producing heavy rain and frequent lightning… they will die down later tonight after the sun goes down. Away from the showers, temperatures are close to 90 with a mix of sun and clouds.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Our weather just won’t change much tomorrow and Sunday. Partly sunny with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three, and afternoon highs will stay close to 90 degrees. Pretty much the kind of weather your expect in mid-August in Alabama.

NEXT WEEK: A weak upper trough is expected to be in place across the Deep South, so we expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis through the week; the sky will be occasionally cloudy, and highs will be in the 87 to 91 degree range, which is below average for this time of the year. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: The image below was captured this morning at Gulf Shores from @ryonsmith…

We still project about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily along the coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores over the weekend with the risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs will remain in the upper 80s on the coast, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Once again the Atlantic basin is very quiet. A tropical wave is emerging off the coast of Africa, but development is not likely.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted very early Monday morning… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Our Favorite Stories From Alabama NewsCenter

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/14/2015 - 12:32

From breaking the details on a major automotive supplier’s $530 million expansion to offering up some things to do in the state this weekend, here are some of our favorite stories from our partners at Alabama NewsCenter this week.

Can’t Miss Alabama: Barbecue, music and a county fair this weekend -Here’s a quick guide if you need help determining which cool events to include in your plans.

Alabama Road Trips: From Birmingham to Smith Lake via Jasper – One of the joys of living in Alabama is how close we always are to the beauty of our many natural resources. You can go from the bustling downtown of any large city in the state to a serene countryside setting in less than 30 minutes.

Kamtek unveils details of aggressive five-year Birmingham growth plan – Kamtek International officials said today the company’s Birmingham expansion plans will total $530 million in capital investment and add 354 jobs by 2019.

Many Alabama schools under new leadership this year – As a new school year begins, several superintendents are preparing to lead an Alabama school system for the first time ever.

Deontay Wilder’s second title defense rounding into shape – WBC heavyweight boxing champion Deontay Wilder could make the second defense of his title in the same city in which he made his first defense.

PSC holds public hearing on Alabama Power’s renewables proposal – The Alabama Public Service Commission held a public service hearing on Alabama Power’s proposal to secure up to 500 megawatts of renewable generation for customers over the next six years.

Separation Anxiety: Managing one of life’s major transitions – These tips will help parents successfully cope with empty nest syndrome.

2015 Alabama Innovation Awards winners announced – Winners will be recognized next month at the Alabama Innovation and Entrepreneurship Conference.

Birmingham Zoo adds new black bear exhibit – If you want to see bear claws somewhere besides your local doughnut shop, head to the Birmingham Zoo’s new Barbara Ingalls Shook Black Bear Trail that is set to open Saturday, Aug. 8, at noon.

Project Night Night comforts hurting children –  Solace for the young in times of crisis.

NBA basketball player hosts Family Fun Day – Fans were treated to two free events this weekend.

Alabama Power transplants water willow to enhance Smith Lake fishing – And that’s not the only benefit it produces.


Alabama Power provides fish habitats for Weiss Lake – See how this allows student partners to learn lessons in stewardship.


#ILookLikeAnEngineer campaign has Alabama Power engineers taking pride in jobs and gender – Women engineers share in national assertion.

Categories: Weather

Heavy Rain Over Northeast Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/14/2015 - 07:53

Heavy showers and some thunder are affecting Cherokee County in Northeast Alabama this morning, prompting an Areal Flood Advisory from the National weather Service.

Places like Centre, Gaylesville and Cedar Bluff are seeing heavy rain.

Additional showers near Carrollton, GA will affect eastern Cleburne County evetually.

There will be ponding of water on area roads, so take it easy when you are driving.

And be alert to the threat of lightning.

Indications are that we will see this activity increase in coverage and spread across much of the area east of I-65 during the late morning and early afternoon, so be ready for scattered showers.

The activity is developing in a low level upslope flow of moist air coming in off the Atlantic out of Georgia.

Categories: Weather

Humidity Levels Rising

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 08/14/2015 - 06:05

MOIST AIR RETURNS: After two days of dry, continental air, the typical maritime tropical airmass returns to much of Alabama today, meaning we will have the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms” today. We should mention we actually have an early morning shower over Cherokee County, in far Northeast Alabama, as I write this around 6:00…

Chance of any one spot getting wet today is about one in three, and the high will be around 90 with a partly sunny sky. Very typical weather for mid-August in Alabama.

THE WEEKEND: The overall pattern just won’t change much. Mixed sun and clouds tomorrow and Sunday, and the risk of a passing afternoon shower or storm in random, scattered spots. Highs close to 90 degrees.

And, this won’t change much next week… if anything the coverage of showers and storms will be a little higher with a broad upper low/weakness across the Deep South. Highs will remain around 90 degrees. And, of course, in summer there is no skill in identifying the exact placement and timing of showers and storms. Just know they will be around, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily along the Gulf Coast through early next week (from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores)… with a passing thunderstorm from time to time. Storms could be tad more numerous Sunday and Monday. Highs on the coast will be in the upper 80s, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: Still no sign of life across the Atlantic basin in this El Nino pattern… tropical storm formation is not expected through early next week.

GODZILLA? Almost every night on national news media outlets, we hear of “monster storms” with “80 million in the path” that are “unprecedented”. Today a new level of hyperbole has been introduced with a “Godzilla” El Nino.

The truth is that we are in a very significant El Nino cycle. But, understand we only have good ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phase data back to the 1950s, and there is much to learn. What does it mean for Alabama? El Nino winters here tend to be fairly wet, relatively mild, and occasionally stormy. We also have intrusions of shallow cold air at times, which can open the door for ice issues. But, long time readers know I am no fan of seasonal outlooks since there is very little skill in them. We will just have to wait and see…?

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking at an event this morning at Parrish in Walker County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Humidity Levels Rising In Coming Days

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Thu, 08/13/2015 - 15:26

SUNNY AUGUST AFTERNOON: As expected, this is another very nice summer day across Alabama, with a good supply of sunshine, low humidity, and temperatures generally in the 88 to 91 degree range. Keep in mind on this date in 2007, our high was 103, so it can be sizzling hot in mid-August. Cooler spots actually started the day in the 50s; Vic Bell at Black Creek reported 58 degrees at daybreak.

We do see two small showers over far East Alabama, in Cleburne and Randolph County, but the majority of the showers and storms are over Georgia, especially around Atlanta. Most of the state will stay dry tonight, although it won’t be as cool as last night.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: Moisture levels slowly rise, and a few spots could see a passing shower or thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, the day will be partly sunny with a high around 90 degrees. That is pretty much the situation for the weekend; a decent amount of sunshine Saturday and Sunday, but the risk of a few scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Most communities will see a high between 90 and 93 degrees.

NEXT WEEK: No big change; pretty standard August weather for at least the first half of the week, with partly sunny days and the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will stay in the low 90s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine daily on the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores with the risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs will stay in the upper 80s on the coast, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures remain mostly in the mid 80s.

See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here. The Gulf Coast Beach Forecast is presented by Gulf Shores Plantation by Mandoki Hospitality Vacation Rentals. Escape to Gulf Shores Plantation where memories last a lifetime.

TROPICS: All remains very quiet across the vast Atlantic basin this afternoon.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather
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