Feed aggregator

Much Colder Tomorrow

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 15:46

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

STILL WET TONIGHT: A flash flood watch remains in effect for most of Central and South Alabama through tonight as more rain will fall tonight ahead of a strong cold front. Additional rain amounts of around one are likely, and some minor flooding issues are possible, but nothing like the big event we had a week ago in the Birmingham metro area.

The good news is that SPC dropped the severe weather risk for North and Central Alabama earlier this morning; the risk of severe storms for tonight is confined to the far southern counties of the state, where there is better instability.

The rain will end from west to east after midnight. Clouds hang tough, so no chance of seeing the lunar eclipse in Alabama. Sorry….

RAW, WINDY, COLD TOMORROW: It sure won’t feel like April tomorrow. Strong north winds of 15-30 mph will usher in some very cold air; the high will be only in the low to mid 50s, and some communities over the northern third of the state might not get out of the 40s. We project gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon as subsidence takes over.

FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING: The new run of the NAM model is printing a low of 28 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Wednesday. We expect the range to be generally from 25 to 35 degrees, and growers will need to protect tender plants and vegetation. Some of the coldest valleys and protected areas (like Black Creek and Valley Head) could see low 20s. And, across higher terrain where temperatures stay above freezing, frost is likely.

A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with a high in the mid 60s. Thursday will be another sunny day with a high around 70 degrees.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: A disturbance will bring the risk of showers late Friday afternoon, Friday night, and possibly into Saturday morning. Upper support is not impressive, and severe weather should not be an issue. And, rain not especially heavy.

The surface front will stall out over Central Alabama Saturday along with a moisture axis. Rain on Saturday should be light and spotty, and there is no risk of severe weather. The high will be in the mid 70s, and the sky will be generally cloudy.

All of a sudden the 12Z GFS brings in a wave of low pressure along the front, and more rain into Alabama. This solution seems plausible and is accepted for this forecast package, so we will amend the forecast to include the risk of rain Sunday. The weather stays mild with a high well into the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Drier air arrives Monday with a clearing sky, and mostly dry weather is likely for Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

AT THE BEACH: A chance of showers and storms tonight, a few severe storms are possible from Gulf Shores over to Panama City. Then, clearing, windy, and cooler tomorrow with a high only in the low 60s. The weather will be dry through mid-week with sunny days and fair nights Wednesday and Thursday. Highs back in the 67 to 70 degree range on the immediate coast on these two days. Just a few scattered showers for Friday and Saturday; rain will be a little more likely Sunday.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa on Skyland Blvd. Wednesday from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you need your weather radio programmed, or have questions, come see us…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show at 8:30 tonight; watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing the kids at Hokes Bluff and Chelsea Park Elementary Schools today… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

April 14 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 15:44
April 14 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From James Spann and the team of meteorologi... From: abc3340 Views: 29 0 ratings Time: 06:48 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Watch Expanded

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 12:30

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS EXPANDED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…
EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING AREAS…IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…LOWNDES AND MONTGOMERY.
IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…LEE…MACON AND RUSSELL. IN
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…BARBOUR…BULLOCK AND PIKE.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
WATCH AREA…WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

* THE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ENOUGH TO AGGRAVATE SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS THAT ARE ALREADY
RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL…AND SOME RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
STAGES OF MINOR FLOODING. ROADWAYS IN LOW LYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY FLOOD…ESPECIALLY ROADS THAT ARE CLOSE TO CREEKS AND
STREAMS. PONDING OF WATER WILL BE LIKELY IN URBAN AREAS WHERE
POOR DRAINAGE EXISTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON…

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR

* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…NORTHEAST
ALABAMA…NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…AUTAUGA…
BIBB…BLOUNT…CHILTON…COOSA…DALLAS…ELMORE…
JEFFERSON…PERRY…SHELBY…ST. CLAIR…TALLADEGA AND WALKER.
IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…CALHOUN…CHAMBERS…CLAY…
CLEBURNE…RANDOLPH AND TALLAPOOSA. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…
CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…MARION AND
WINSTON. IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…FAYETTE…GREENE…HALE…
LAMAR…MARENGO…PICKENS…SUMTER AND TUSCALOOSA.

Categories: Weather

Weather Radio Programming – Tuscaloosa

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 09:15

The ABC 3340 Weather Team will be helping folks program their weather radios this coming Wednesday at the Academy Sports store in Tuscaloosa from 3:30 to 6:30 pm. If you have a weather radio – or need to purchase a new weather radio – and you want to be sure it is programmed correctly, we can help. Just bring it by Academy Sports this coming Wednesday, and ABC 3340 folks will be there to make sure you are ready for whatever Spring 2014 throws at us.

As an added bonus, you can see James Spann live doing the weather from there or see the our new full-sized cardboard cut out of him!

Tuscaloosa not convenient? We’ll also be making stops in Bessemer at Publix on April 23, Pell City at Publix on April 30, Gadsden at Academy Sports on May 7, and Hoover at Publix on May 14.

Hope to see you there.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

North-Central Alabama Cleared from Severe Weather Risk

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 08:27

The latest outlook from the SPC has cleared much of North-Central Alabama from the risk of severe weather today. Ongoing showers and storms this morning continue to stabilize the atmosphere over the state. The risk for severe weather in the state (outlined in green), is along and south of U.S. 80 across the Black Belt Region of the state to Montgomery, and also includes, Mobile, Dothan, Troy, Monroeville, and Jackson.

This morning, showers and storms continue to push towards the south across the state. In the wake of the front edge of this convection, moderate rain continues to fall across central portions of the state. This activity will last for several more hours and will give most locations a soaking rain today.

With the persistent rain over the region, it does not appear the atmosphere will have time to recover and destabilize before the front moves through the area. If this would have occurred, there would have been the threat for severe storms later today. Once again, this does not look likely today, but in any case, we will have to watch the front as it moves into the state this afternoon as it could produce a some additional showers and storms.

With the threat of severe weather diminishing today, we now turn our focus to the flooding threat that could possible develop. Many areas of Central Alabama could receive 1-2 inches of rain today with some locations in West Alabama possibly receiving more. Much of Central Alabama remains under a flash flood watch until 1PM Tuesday.

Categories: Weather

April 14 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 06:33
April 14 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 1185 2 ratings Time: 09:46 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Watch Today

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 06:24

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RAIN AND STORMS: Another wet Monday for Alabama. No, not as much rain as last Monday morning (thankfully), but average rain amounts of two inches are likely across North-Central Alabama, and the NWS has issued a flash flood watch for our part of the state. We do note the high resolution HRRR model, which performed very well during the last event, brings in some 4 inch rain totals near Tuscaloosa through this evening…

So, we expect the higher rain totals today west of I-65, and that is where we will find the greatest risk of flooding. Nothing like the flash flood emergency we dealt with last Monday morning in the Birmingham metro.

SEVERE WEATHER? The severe weather threat over the northern half of Alabama is marginal at best. The big rain mass this morning will make for a stable atmosphere, it remains to be seen if the air can recover for strong or severe storms this evening ahead of the surface boundary. Clearly the best chance of severe weather will come over the southern half of the state where parameters are better, but even there the low level jet looks pretty weak this evening.

Still, SPC has much of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather, so we will watch radar trends. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

Bad news for those hoping to see the lunar eclipse tonight; clouds are going nowhere, and they will cover Alabama through the night.

RAW, COLD DAY TOMORROW: Strong north winds of 15-30 mph will usher in much colder air into our state tomorrow. The high around here will be only in the low to mid 50s, and some North Alabama communities won’t make it out of the 40s. We will forecast gradual clearing tomorrow afternoon, but the day will be raw, windy, and cold.

WEDNESDAY MORNING FREEZE: Growers will need to protect plants and vegetation tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. The GFS is printing a low of 32 for Birmingham, while the NAM is showing 28 degrees. We all know this is not a “one number” place when it comes to forecasting lows on a clear, calm morning. We figure the actual range will be from 24 to 34 degrees, with the colder readings in valleys and protected areas. Traditionally colder places like Valley Head and Black Creek could see low 20s. Most of the larger metropolitan areas like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston will be clustered in the 28-33 degree range. Gadsden a bit colder.

A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon with a sunny sky and a high in the mid 60s.

LATER THIS WEEK: Thursday will be sunny with a high close to 70, then clouds increase during the day Friday ahead of the next weather system.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks like we will have a chance of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, Friday night into Saturday morning. With the main dynamic support so far north, we don’t expect severe weather, and rain amounts should not be too heavy (mostly under 1/2 inch). Sunday promises to be a beautiful day with lots of sun and a high in the mid 70s.

Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER RADIO HELP: We will be at Academy Sports in Tuscaloosa on Skyland Blvd. Wednesday from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you need your weather radio programmed, or have questions, come see us…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have weather programs today at Hokes Bluff Elementary School in Etowah County, and Chelsea Park Elementary School in Shelby County. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Early Morning Update

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 03:32

We are watching a line of strong storms moving across northern Mississippi this morning. There are currently no severe storms with this line of activity but these cells are just below severe limits. There are producing very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent and dangerous lightning. This activity will continue to race off to the east and will be impacting Alabama later this morning. The good news is the storms appear to be slowly weakening as they approach the state.

Showers and some rumbles of thunder are already moving into our northwestern counties, but the more intense line of activity will be entering Alabama after 4 AM. It will continue to move across the state during the morning hours. Behind this initial activity we will have to be on guard later today. If the sunshine pops back out and allows the atmosphere to become unstable, we could see a threat of severe weather later today across the state as the actual cold front moves into the state. The latest day one convective outlook from the SPC for Monday has much of Alabama, as well as Mississippi and Louisiana outlined in a slight risk for severe weather.

If we do see the atmosphere recover today from this morning’s activity, we will likely see showers and storms develop mid to late afternoon as the cold front moves into the state. The main threat with the storms that develop will be damaging straight-line winds. With thunderstorms, it is always wise to expect the unexpected and the chance for hail and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. We will also have to monitor the threat of flash flooding. Much of Central Alabama has been placed under a flash flood watch which will go into effect at 7AM this morning. Remember to TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN if you encounter flood waters.

Categories: Weather

Late Night Update

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 04/14/2014 - 00:13

Two lines of showers and storms continue early this morning.

The first extends over western Tennessee and northern Mississippi into northern Lousiana.

The second extends across southeastern Missouri, across Central Arkansas and into northern Louisiana.

All of this activity will push across northern Mississippi overnight.  It should weaken as it does.
There are only five severe thunderstorm warnings still in effect and no tornado warnings.  Severe thunderstorm watches extend from northeastern Texas across much of Arkansas to western Tennessee.

The first round of showers/storms will enter the area around sunrise and continue to impact the area through the mornings hours.  Showers and storms will build again to our west by Afternoon and some of them may become severe Monday afternoon and evening.

Please check the latest information this morning and review your severe weather safety plans.

We will monitor the situation all night.  Expect the next update around 3 a.m. , unless conditions warrant an earlier notification.

Categories: Weather

Watching to the West

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 21:05

It is an active night of severe weather in areas to the west of Alabama as a dynamic storm system continues to come together.

As we have been advertising, it is a two prong system. The first upper disturbance is moving into Arkansas from Oklahoma tonight, weakening as it goes. Showers and storms extend from southwestern Illinois to southeastern Missouri to Central Arkansas. Further south, new development is building over Central Louisiana.

Flash flood warnings are in effect around Little Rock, where water rescues are going on at this hour from West Little Rock into downtown.

A stronger, intensifying disturbance is moving out of the Rockies tonight. This disturbance is opening the door for a big Arctic airmass to come south. That impressive boundary extends from Chicago to Des Moines to Kansas City to Oklahoma City to Amarillo.

It is 68F at Springfield MO while just a short distance on the other side of the boundary, it is 39F in Salina and 32F in Hill City KS. Just yesterday, Salina was setting a record high with 91F. In Texas, it is 81F at Wichita Falls and 51F at Pampa in the Panhandle. Further back in the cold air it is 24F in Denver with heavy snow.

The main squall line extends from Central Missouri west of St. Louis into northwestern Arkansas across southeastern Oklahoma to the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorm warnings extend from Central Missouri into western Arkansas. A tornado warning was in efect for areas near Ardmore OK a little earlier.

There have been only three tornado reports today, including two from Iowa and one from Oklahoma.

The initial activity will push across northern Mississippi this evening and reach Northwest Alabama before sunrise. The system will be weakening as it pushes through West Alabama, reaching I-59 on mid-morning.

Meanwhile, activity should intensify over northern Louisiana, northern Mississippi and western Tennessee during the day ahead of the main trough and powerful cold front. This activity should reach Northwest Alabama by late afternoon and push through western Alabama between 6-8 p.m. and into the I-59 corridor between 7-9 p.m. It will reach eastern Alabama during the late evening. Showers and storms will continue until the cold front moves through during the predawn hours Tuesday morning.

There is a chance that instabilities will be pretty impressive over western Alabama late tomorrow afternoon. In addition, wind shear values will be high as well, In fact, 0-1 km helicities may be in the 250-300 m2/s2 range. Surface temperatures will push into the middle 70s and dewpoints should be in the middle 60s.

So, we will be monitoring the severe weather potential across Central Alabama through early Tuesday. Indications are that the threat tonight is very low. But we will keep an idea on it. The main threat should come late tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow evening. Hail and damaging winds will be possible and we can’t rule out the threat of tornadoes as well. Stay tuned.

In addition to the severe weather threat, there is a flash flooding threat. Rainfalls across Central Alabama will average 1.5-2.5 inches through Tuesday morning. Flash flood watches are in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

Categories: Weather

Jackson NWS Adds to Flash Flood Watches

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 15:18

As Bill noted below, the NWS in Birmingham has issued a flash flood watch in effect from Monday morning (7:00 am CDT) through Tuesday midday (1:00 pm CDT) for all of Central Alabama. Just a short time ago, the NWS in Jackson, MS, has added their own flash flood watch which extends further west into Central Mississippi as you can see from the map below.

Besides the severe weather threat, the threat of heavy rain could produce two problems for us. The first is rapid flooding due to the heavy rain. The second is resulting rise in streams and creeks and rivers from what could be a widespread 1 to 3 inch rain total for the storm.

Be sure to stay up with the latest weather information by bookmarking the Alabama Weather Blog.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Watch Issued

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 14:40

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a flash flood watch for much of Central Alabama, beginning Monday morning and continuing through early Tuesday afternoon.

Counties in the flash flood watch include: Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Chambers, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay, Cleburne, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Etowah, Fayette, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lamar, Marengo, Marion, Perry, Pickens, Randolph, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Talladega, Tallapoosa, Tuscaloosa, Walker and Winston.

1 to 3 inches of rain is expected across the watch area starting as early as Monday morning and continuing through early afternoon Tuesday. Flooding will be an issue.

Be ready to receive warnings if they are issued and to take action. Get MyWARN if you have an Android or iOS device.

Categories: Weather

A Nice Sunday, Severe Weather in the Offing Though

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 12:31

A pleasant spring Sunday is in progress with partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy skies at time. High clouds are starting to stream across the area, and thickening and lowering clouds are to the west. Back over Mississippi, we see a healthy field of cumulus clouds in a plume of moisture surging up into the Magnolia State. By the time you get to the Mississippi River, a thick overcast is in place.

The nearest rain to Alabama is some rain over northwestern Arkansas and some showers over eastern Texas. Thunderstorms are in progress in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area, but they are not strong nor severe at this time.

Temperatures are in the upper generally at this hour. Birmingham and Anniston are at 78F and 77F respectively, Tuscaloosa checked in with 73F at noon, a little cooler since skies are already cloudy. It has become quite breezy, with southerly winds averaging 10-20 mph and gusts to near 30 mph at times.

A quick check of the weather early this afternoon shows that the forecast is on track for Central Alabama.

Severe weather is expected today and tonight to the west of Alabama. There is a large slight risk severe weather outlook area in effect today and tonight in an area roughly bounded by Austin, Wichita Falls, Oklahoma City, Wichita, Kansas City, Peoria, St. Louis, Memphis, Meridian, Alexandria and back to Austin. The moderate risk area that was included in the forecast earlier has been removed due to the clouds and precipitation over Texas and Oklahoma that is reducing instability.

The storms to our west will move eastward overnight, weakening as they move across Mississippi. They should make it into Alabama well after midnight.

As a second surface low develops to our west early tomorrow and instability rises with some daytime heating, storms should ramp up during the day. They should be enough instability and shear in place for some of the storms to become strong to severe by afternoon. It now appears that all modes of severe weather are possible, with hail, damaging winds and even tornadoes. We will be able to refine the exact threat as we move into the daylight hours tomorrow, but for now, review your severe weather safety plans and check your sources for receiving watches and warnings.

Much colder weather is in the offing for Tuesday behind the cold front. Highs will remain in the 50s all day with the threat of some frost Tuesday night as the mercury drops into the middle 30s generally with a few spots reaching freezing. Growers and planters should be aware of the threat and plan accordingly.

Categories: Weather

Active Weather Tomorrow

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 06:50

A few important notes concerning weather in the days ahead. Today will be warm and dry with a high in the low 80s, but some big changes are ahead.

RAIN/STORMS TOMORROW: SPC has most of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow, with an enhanced 30% chance over the central counties…

Defining the severe weather threat tomorrow is somewhat complicated. A large mass of rain is expected to move across Alabama after midnight tonight into tomorrow morning, and this will limit the amount of instability available for the “second round” later in the day. If clouds hold in place through the day, the rain cooled air will greatly limit the severe weather potential over the northern half of Alabama. The wind fields will support some risk of severe weather; we will just have to watch developments closely during the day.

I would suggest the primary threats will come from strong straight line winds and hail, although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL: The high resolution NAM model hints that over two inches of rain could fall south of Birmingham tomorrow and tomorrow night…

The NWS might consider a flash flood watch this afternoon since the ground is still relatively saturated from the big rains this past Sunday night and Monday morning.

APRIL COLD SNAP: The other issue is the potential for frost/freeze Wednesday morning. Tuesday will be a raw, cold day with a chilly north wind…. sure looks like many places won’t get out of the 40s. Some possibility some communities north of Birmingham, near the Tennessee border, might even have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Models bring temperatures down into the 30 to 35 degree range around daybreak Wednesday…

Growers will need to plan accordingly. Colder pockets over North Alabama will most likely reach the 20s.

Stay tuned for updates through the day as new model data arrives…

Categories: Weather

Nice Sunday but Stormy Monday

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 04/13/2014 - 04:49

No Weather Xtreme Video this morning due to travel from South Padre Island, TX, back to Helena, AL. James Spann should have the next video first thing on Monday morning.

Not a great deal of change to the forecast thinking from yesterday. Looks like a very nice Sunday for Central Alabama with clouds increasing later today but temperatures climbing into the lower 80s for highs.

Monday will be a stormy day with the potential of two serious issues – severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. SPC has outlooked an area for the standard slight risk of severe storms across the Southeast US that covers all of Alabama. All modes of severe weather will be possible including a few tornadoes. In addition to the severe weather threat, rain could be heavy at times which will bring streams that are going down from the last big rainfall up again quickly. Flash flooding will also be an issue in areas experiencing the heaviest rainfall. Widespread rain of 1 to 2 inches is likely with 2 to 3 inches possible in some locations.

Day 2 Outlook for Monday

The front and the upper trough should move by Tuesday morning paving the way for improving weather by Tuesday afternoon as lots of people get their income taxes filed. The front should usher in drier but much colder air into the Southeast. Patchy frost will be possible on Wednesday morning as morning lows dip into the middle 30s. Sunshine Wednesday should bring afternoon highs back into the middle 60s.

Thursday will be a nice day as clouds once again begin to increase ahead of yet another weather system and temperatures recover. Morning lows should fall back only into the 40s with the afternoon high approaching 70.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Stupendous Weather this Weekend

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 04/12/2014 - 13:24

Hard to find anything to complain about with today’s weather across Southeast. Mostly sunny skies with just a few passing cumulus clouds are giving us all ample sunshine and blue skies. All locations across Central Alabama are well into mid and upper 70s this afternoon, as a light south winds blows keeping us very comfortable.

The incredible weather will last the rest of today and into the overnight hours as we will stay mostly clear. Lows tonight for most of Central Alabama will settle back into the mid-50s. Tomorrow, we can expect a near repeat of today as mostly sunny and warm conditions will dominate Alabama’s weather. Only differences will be afternoon highs are expected to be a few degrees warmer on Sunday, and late in the day, we will certainly begin to see clouds increasing as a storm system to our west develops.

We will have to watch this storm system as we head into Monday, as the SPC has outlined much of Alabama in their standard slight risk for severe weather. Monday morning, storms will be ongoing across the Mississippi River Valley as a cold front pushes east. These storms will likely arrive into the area during the day Monday as a strong line of storms. A lot of uncertainty with the forecast of these storms as some of the model data just shows this as a rain event while others hint at a threat for storms. Nevertheless when it comes to Alabama weather, expect the unexpected.

If severe storms do impact Alabama they will more than likely be associated with damaging winds and large hail, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The risk area covers much of Alabama including the cities of Mobile, Montgomery, Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Cullman, and Decatur. Once again, this threat would not be until Monday and the weather the rest of this weekend will be fantastic.

Categories: Weather

Great Weekend for Central Alabama

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:13

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Great weekend in store for Central Alabama with surface high pressure nosing across the Southeast US while the action begins to develop to our west.

A strong trough will come out of the southern Rockies on Monday preceded by a series of short waves. This will bring rain and perhaps thunderstorms to the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning for round one while the main trough hangs back to bring us round 2 on Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe on Monday afternoon with all modes of severe weather possible including isolated tornadoes. The two major threats will be damaging wind as well as concerns for additional flooding or flash flooding as streams and rivers across the area remain pretty full. Rainfall totals on the order of 1 to 2 inches are possible with perhaps some higher amounts to 3 inches in the heavier storms. While the rivers and streams are responding to the dry weather by coming down some, they will still be running pretty full on Monday, so any significant rain could bring them back up quickly.

The upper trough takes its time but finally comes across Alabama on Tuesday. This should bring an end to the rain by late morning and provide us with clearing skies by late afternoon. It will also usher in some cooler air with the potential for readings in the upper 30s on Wednesday morning.

But the ridge builds in across the East Coast returning us to warmer temperatures for Thursday and Friday. By Friday, another strong trough begins to move out of the western US with moisture returning from the Gulf of Mexico. This will set the table for another round of wet weather for next Saturday with the potential for strong storms though it does not appear that impressive at the moment.

Looking out into Week 2 or voodoo country, a strong ridge builds into the eastern US around the 24th of April, while yet another strong trough digs into the Rockies. This strong trough will eject out across the Central Plains and Mississippi River Valley around the 26th and 27th, and the GFS is surely showing a substantial trough with what could be some pretty chilly air as well as the potential for severe storms. Not unexpected considering it is April.

Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. I will be traveling back to Alabama on Sunday morning from the National Tropical Weather Conference, so I will be unable to prepare a video in the morning. I’ll do my best to post some forecast notes. Enjoy the great weekend and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

April 12 Weather Xtreme Video

Weather Xtreme Video - Sat, 04/12/2014 - 08:06
April 12 Weather Xtreme Video
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 838 5 ratings Time: 06:56 More in News & Politics
Categories: Weather

Warm, Dry Weekend Ahead

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 04/11/2014 - 14:28

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am at Regions Field for a special Weather Radio giveaway tonight at the Barons game**

WARM WEEKEND: A delightful weekend is ahead for Alabama; expect a partly to mostly sunny sky tomorrow and Sunday; highs will be near 80 degrees both days.

SPC maintains a standard “slight risk” of severe weather for areas west of Alabama Sunday; much of Arkansas, Louisiana, East Texas, and East Oklahoma is included in that outlook.

RAIN BY MONDAY: Showers and storms return to Alabama Monday and Monday night; severe weather parameters remain unimpressive, and severe weather (at least on an organized basis) is not expected for now. Rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely, and the rain will end Tuesday as colder and drier air moves into the state. Parts of North Alabama won’t get out of the 50s Tuesday with a chilly north wind of 12-22 mph making it feel colder.

Wednesday morning will be cold, and the 12Z GFS suggests much of North and Central Alabama will drop into the 30s… seems like the potential of a late season frost or freeze is very real.

Growers will need to monitor temperature forecasts closely in coming days. A warming trend begins Wednesday afternoon, and for now Thursday and Friday look dry.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny days, fair nights through Sunday. Rain and storms are likely Monday and Monday night; the rain ends Tuesday and the rest of next week will be dry. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 67-70 degree range because of the cooler ocean water (sea water temperatures are in the mid 60s), but inland some low 80s are likely over the weekend.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. Monday… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 04/11/2014 - 08:46

We are still a few months away from the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which begins June 1. However, in the southern hemisphere, around Australia they are still in the tropical cyclone season for about another month.

A very dangerous and destructive storm is impacting parts of Australia currently. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita made landfall earlier today along the northern Australia Coast in the state Queensland. Ita is a very powerful storm as maximum sustained winds were 135 knots or 155 mph with wind gusts to 165 knots or 190 mph. Looking at the system, there is no doubt that Ita is a very strong storm being fairly symmetrical, with a well-developed eye.

What always fascinates me about southern hemisphere storms is they spin backwards to what we are use to seeing in the northern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere, cyclonic flow is clockwise verses the counter-clockwise flow we see in the northern hemisphere.

At 1pm EST Friday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was situated over the
northwestern Coral Sea and moving south southwestwards towards the north
Queensland coast.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is expected to shift inland during Saturday though
remain quite close to the coast. It will then most likely move southeastwards
off the southern tropical or central coast on Monday and into the Coral Sea. It
has some potential to redevelop though will be encountering a less favorable
environment and should also shift further southeast away from the east
Queensland coast.

Categories: Weather