Weather

Well it will be hard to find anyone that can complain about this weather; it is truly a beautiful and warm afternoon. This is what spring is all about; the birds are singing, the bees are humming, the flowers are blooming and my favorite color shows itself, Spring Green. I don’t know if that is an actual color, but it is what I call it every spring. It is the point where all the new tender leaves are stretching out and the chlorophyll in the leaves hasn’t turned dark green yet. Still a vibrant and in some cases near neon green that makes everything looks fresh and new. This is one of the best times of year across Alabama. The one draw back is that the pollen is showing up today. A bit of a yellowish haze outside as all the budding and blooming trees and plants release it. Some of the greatest pollen producers are pine trees. You can look at them and see the pollen producing clusters on each limb. If you catch yourself near a group of them and a gust of winds moves through them, there is an explosion of the yellow powder off the trees. It always reminds me of when someone is putting powder sugar on a cake.

The weather is fairly similar  in many areas of the Southeast. A storm system is moving across the upper Midwest today, where some areas in the Northern Great Lakes are seeing some snow. No thank you. I will take our dusting of pollen anyday to winter weather.

The air over the Southeast is fairly dry and that means it heats and cools more effectively. That tells me that we  will have very warm afternoon and fairly cool nights. That will continue for the next few days. Most areas will see 70s this afternoon, but will quickly fall back into the upper 40s and low 50s tonight, before rebounding nicely into the mid 70s tomorrow. A quick peek of the satellite shows most area across the Southeast are experiencing mostly sunny conditions. No rain, no storms and no severe weather. It is just a fantastic spring weekend.

Sorry for the lack of a video today, but my location in the Race Control Building at Barber Motorsports Park just does not lend itself to preparing a video.

High cirrus clouds continue to stream across the sky of Central Alabama. While the clouds dim the sun somewhat, temperatures have warmed nicely from the upper 30s this morning to near 70 just before noon. With surface high pressure off to our northeast, the surface wind has come around to the southeast with wind speeds in the range of 8 to 12 mph. Looks like Sunday will be a close duplicate of today with a few more clouds but highs should still reach the middle 70s.

The new 12Z run from the GFS has reached 156 hours, and it continues to bring the next major system into Alabama late Wednesday and early Thursday. If this timing comes to be correct, we might avoid a significant round of severe weather. Under the latest run, the major severe weather threat would be centered on Arkansas. But with the continuing inconsistency in timing from model run to model run, we’ll still need to keep a wary eye on how this system shapes up. At this writing, the European run was not available for comparison.

-Brian-

***No video today due to my work providing weather support to the Honda Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports Park.***

A gorgeous Spring weekend is shaping up for Central Alabama. High pressure at the surface will be situated over the eastern US throughout the weekend keeping the weather just great. Ridging aloft will weaken a tad over the weekend, but the strong westerlies will remain well north of us through the first of the week. Beginning Monday, a strong upper trough will be digging into the Southwest US. This will cut off Tuesday in the vicinity of the Four Corners area and then kick out into the middle of the week. There has been some model inconsistency on timing of this system, but the latest GFS brings the strong upper low into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. A strong surface low will move from Colorado on Tuesday into the eastern Great Lakes on Thursday trailing a strong cold front into the Southeast US.

Based on current model guidance, there is still a great deal of uncertainty especially with timing. The European does not bring the system into the Southeast US until Friday, much slower than the GFS. SPC has highlighted a risk for Day 5, Wednesday, for a large part of Arkansas, West Tennessee, and Southeast Missouri. However, they note that model differences preclude identifying a specific area on Day 6 or 7 due to these differences. Some risk area is likely to be identified as we get closer to the event.

Temperatures will reach into the 70s for highs over the weekend and into the first of the upcoming week. We might even be pushing the 80-degree mark by the time we reach Tuesday and Wednesday, that would be the first 80s for 2013.

-Brian-

Our friend Steve Jones posted an interesting article this week about the seismic signatures of tornadoes on his AlabamaQuake site.

http://alabamaquake.com/reports.html#Tornado_Seismic_Signature

Make sure to follow Steve on Twitter @alabamaquake.

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am live at the Barber Motorsports Park on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, and 6:00…**

BRIGHTER AND WARMER: As expected, the sky cleared nicely across Alabama today… we are enjoying ample sunshine this afternoon with temperatures in the 60s. Tonight will be clear and cool; most places will drop into the low 40s, but some of the colder pockets over North Alabama might see mid to upper 30s with a touch of light frost.

The weekend will start with a sunny day tomorrow along with a high in the mid 70s. A few high clouds will show up Sunday, but the day will remain mostly sunny, and we reach the mid 70s again.

NEXT WEEK: We will warm into the 77-81 degree range Monday and Tuesday, and we stay dry on those two days. But, to the west, a significant severe weather setup will bring some very active weather to the Southern Plains.

Model consistency for Alabama on this event remains poor. All of a sudden, the 12Z GFS is much faster, and brings the band of storms into Alabama during the day Wednesday…

There is no dominate surface low nearby, and instability and shear values are not especially impressive for early April. But, with the model madness it just remains to be seen if this system will pose a big severe weather issue for Alabama or not. Nobody knows at this point the magnitude of the event, and the details concerning timing, placement, and modes of severe weather are just not known. We will much better clarity by Sunday and Monday.

We note in the longer range (April 12-19) our weather looks rather quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD, DAMP MORNING: Light rain continues early this morning over some of the eastern counties of Alabama, and temperatures are in the 40s. The rain will end shortly, and we will forecast gradual clearing later today as drier air works into the state, and subsidence moves in on the back side of the departing upper trough. If the sun does break out this afternoon, we should reach the mid 60s this afternoon.

Tonight will be cool with a clear sky; most communities will drop into the low 40s early tomorrow, but colder pockets across Northeast Alabama could see the mid 30s with some risk of scattered light frost.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: Doesn’t get much better. A good supply of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 70s. Enjoy.

WARM NEXT WEEK: A good chance we see our warmest weather so far this year next week. We hit 76 degrees on three days in March, our warmest so far in 2013… a good chance we see 80 degree warmth by Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a slow increase in moisture, but most of Alabama should remain dry Monday and Tuesday.

TO THE WEST: A significant severe weather event is possible Tuesday west of Alabama; the 00Z GFS suggests this might be the biggest severe weather day with a 991 mb low over Kansas, and very unstable air south and east of that low. Places like Dallas/Fort Worth, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Springfield, MO, and Fort Smith, AR will deal with the threat, and SPC has this region outlined in a severe weather risk for Day 5 in their extended outlook. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.

The surface low fills as it moves east, but severe weather is still possible just west of Alabama during the day Wednesday over Mississippi and West Tennessee; SPC has this area in the Day 6 risk.

For now SPC does not have any severe weather risk defined for Day 7, which is Thursday of next week, and when Alabama will deal with showers and storms. Actually, we could see storms as early as Wednesday night, but the latest model data hints the main risk will come from about midnight Wednesday night through midnight Thursday night. There is no well defined, dominant surface low, and the upper trough is positive tilt. Model data now shows somewhat limited instability, and the best shear north of Alabama… meaning the threat is “iffy”. But, this is very early in the game and things could change.

Like I stated here yesterday, at this early stage of the game nobody knows the magnitude, timing, placement, or specific modes of severe weather. We will have a much better idea of the specifics late this weekend and on Monday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the latest details, maps, and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… we are programming Weather Radio receivers at the Publix in McCalla/Bessemer at Colonial Promenade… if you need help, come see us!**

Thanks to J.B. Elliott for these forecast notes…

A HISTORIC WEATHER DAY: We don’t have space to go into great detail here, but we hope you saw the 33/40 Weather Blog story by James Spann this morning about the ultra-powerful tornado (known as the Smithfield Tornado) that moved across the west and northwest side of Birmingham on this date in 1977. James tells a story that only he knows how. There are also lots of photographs and some interesting side stories. I was still with the National Weather Service at 11 West Oxmoor Road when this occurred and NOAA Weather Radio was in its infancy. Nevertheless, we got so many calls and reports about the tragedy unfolding on the edge of the city, that I decided to go live on the weather radio for 90 minutes. That had never been done before. Of course I had help. Jay Shelley, my immediate supervisor at the time, kept bringing me special notes of the damage and Jay even brought me a plastic overlay of the radar that I ad-libbed from. It was a date I will never forget. Come to think of it, it is one of a bunch of dates that I will never forget in my weather career. Enough of that, let’s get back to the present.

BACK TO TODAY: We have had enough rain lately to make a lot of people sick of it. I guess I am a rain monger because I still like rainy days. Patches of rain have continued to move east and southeast across the state today and clouds have persisted, but better things are ahead. We could still see a stray thunderstorm or two this afternoon and tonight. The air is cool, however, but even so we will drop to near 43 by morning. Look for some leftover patchy fog and drizzle early Friday, but mostly sunshine the rest of the day. You need to look forward to Saturday because it should be a day of full sunshine, a cool morning, but a mild afternoon in the mid-70s. More sun than clouds on Sunday and mild with a high near 76. Monday should also have a warm 76 to 78 and warm and breezy. Even warmer on Tuesday with a high of 81. It should be very mild with a few thunderstorms, however, Tuesday night.

THIS IS THE DAY TO REMEMBER: How about the warmest day so far this year on Wednesday. It will be warm and windy. The latest model data, which we trust pretty much (we just about have to trust some of them) shows a high of 84 for Birmingham on Wednesday. There will also be some thunderstorms later in the day, Wednesday night, or Thursday. A few of those could even be severe.

As discussed earlier today, WAY too early to determine the magnitude of the severe weather threat, timing, placement, and modes of severe weather. We will know much more in a few days.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today seeing the home school group at Riverchase Baptist Church, and the kids at Southminster Day School. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 5 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

SMITHFIELD TORNADO: The tornado began around 3 pm CST, 4 miles northwest of Birmingham near U.S. Highway 78, and then traveled northeast for 15 miles at 60 mph, crossing Interstate 65. At it’s widest point, the tornado was 3/4 of a mile wide. Over 150 homes were damaged with almost 50 completely destroyed. A total of 22 people were killed with over 130 injured. This one storm alone caused over $25 million in damage ($83 million in today dollars). Daniel Payne College near U.S. Highway 78 sustained heavy damage from this massive tornado with estimates over $1 million dollars. The college, opened in 1880, later closed its doors in 1977, likely a result of the enormous cost and amount of damage. There were six other tornadoes on this day including five F2 tornadoes and an F3 tornado across North and Central Alabama.

Timely tornado warnings provided by the National Weather Service allowed people to take necessary action well ahead of the approaching storm. The new NOAA Weather Radio program played a huge role in the process. Warnings were broadcast live on the Birmingham KIH-54 transmitter which was just implemented five months prior to this event.

Many people do not know that the famous Dr. Theodore Fujita, for whom the Tornado Fujita Intensity Scale is named after, followed this massive tornado and supercell thunderstorm from an airplane. After tracking the storm, Dr. Fujita surveyed the damage and toyed with the idea of rating the Smithfield tornado an F6. (thanks to the Birmingham NWS for this summary).

Our own J.B. Elliott took many, many damage pictures for the National Weather Service…

This story was produced by ABC 33/40 back in the 90s (thanks to Mike Wilhelm for putting this up on YouTube)

See more pictures and meteorological data from the event here from the NWS Birmingham.

PASSENGER JET DISASTER: The same thunderstorm complex was responsible for the crash of Southern Airways Flight 242 in Georgia; it was a flight from Huntsville to Atlanta. The passenger jet went down after suffering hail damage and losing thrust on both engines; Sixty-three people on the aircraft (including the flight crew) and nine people on the ground died; twenty passengers survived, as well as the two flight attendants. One of the initial survivors succumbed to his injuries several weeks later.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CHILLY, DAMP APRIL DAY: The average high for Birmingham on April 4 is 71 degrees; we will be about 15 degrees below that level again today thanks to clouds and rain… it will be very hard for us to move past the mid 50s. A surface low in the northern Gulf is the culprit, and should bring additional rain amounts of about 1/2 inch to the northern half of the state today.

Of course, the air is cool and stable and we won’t have any severe weather worries… but to the south much of the Florida peninsula is in the warm sector, and severe storms are very possible later and tonight, mainly along and south of I-10. SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up for this part of Florida.

Our weather improves tomorrow with gradual clearing, and we rise into the mid 60s.

FINE WEEKEND: No change in our weekend forecast. Just fantastic… sunny mild days Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 70s. We do note Saturday morning will be cool; we start the day with temperatures around 40, and some of the cold pockets up in Northeast Alabama might see a touch of light frost with lows in the mid 30s. But, for a large majority of Alabama no frost issues early Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: A major storm system will take shape west of the state, and we will enjoy potentially the warmest weather so far in 2013, with highs in the 77-81 degree range Monday through Wednesday.

There is no doubt we could be dealing with a severe weather threat later in the week… the 00Z GFS hints the best chance will come from Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but please understand there is no way right now of resolving the magnitude of the event, modes of severe weather, risk placement, and timing. You will have lots of boneheads that have “weather center” Facebook pages or blogs that will try and scare the pants off of people now, which is completely irresponsible. Weather hyperbole on the Internet has gotten out of hand.

Take a minute an watch the Weather Xtreme video for the latest graphics, maps, and details.

AT THE BEACH: More showers and storms on the Gulf Coast today, but the sky will clear tomorrow, and then you can expect a good supply of sunshine over the weekend, and into Monday of next week. The high today will be in the upper 60s, but low to mid 70s return tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab, as I write this early this morning, is 63 degrees.

NEED HELP WITH YOUR WEATHER RADIO? We will be at the Publix in McCalla, near McAdory High School tomorrow from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you have questions, need your radio programmed, or need to buy one, come and see us. Now is the time to get ready for severe weather since the core of the season is just ahead.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have weather programs today for a home school group at Riverchase Baptist Church…then one at Southminster School in Vestavia. Not sure if I will have time to produce an afternoon video due to the live shot/weather radio programming event in McCalla, but I will have forecast notes here one way or another by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

HIGH WINDS ON THE GULF COAST: A wake low on the back side of a large MCS (mesoscale convective system) in the northern Gulf of Mexico has been producing high winds on the Gulf Coast this afternoon; our SKYCAM at Gulf Shores reported a wind gust of 44 mph; we have one report from an oil platform just off the Louisiana coast of 79 mph winds. The NWS reports wind gusts to 53 mph at Mobile Regional Airport and 66 mph at Brookley Field.

These winds were responsible for the Carnival Triumph breaking loose from the port at Mobile… tow boats are on the scene working to move the ship back to BAE Ship Systems where it was undergoing repairs.

UP THIS WAY: Patchy light rain is falling across North/Central Alabama, and temperatures are only in the 40s and 50s (model forecasts of a high in the 60s were way too warm, needless to say). Our weather will stay cool and wet through tomorrow with periods of rain. Additional rain amounts of about one inch are likely, with the heavier totals over the southern half of the state thanks to a surface low passing just south of Mobile Bay. Tomorrow won’t be any warmer; we won’t get out of the 50s with clouds and rain.

The weather improves Friday; any lingering rain should end early in the day, and the sky should begin to clear Friday afternoon as drier air begins to work into the state.

SUNNY WEEKEND: While we will start the weekend with a cool morning Saturday, with lows around 40 degrees, we warm quickly into the mid 70s Saturday afternoon with sunshine in full supply. Sunday will be delightful as well, with a high in the mid 70s.

WARMEST SO FAR: Still looks like we will see our first 80 degree warmth of 2013 next week… especially on Tuesday (the GFS is printing a high of 81). A dynamic storm system will lift out of the Southwest U.S., and will bring the threat of strong to severe storms to Alabama and the Deep South over the latter half of the week. It is way too early to speculate on the severe weather modes, timing, and magnitude of the event with every model run looking a little different on details. Just something to watch closely in coming days. See the Weather Xtreme video for the details, maps, and graphics.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms are likely tonight and tomorrow, but sunshine returns Friday, and the weekend looks great along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 70s… the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 66 degrees.

NEED HELP WITH YOUR WEATHER RADIO? We will be at the Publix in McCalla, near McAdory High School tomorrow from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you have questions, need your radio programmed, or need to buy one, come and see us. Now is the time to get ready for severe weather since the core of the season is just ahead.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I had great visits today to see kids at Mount Pleasant Christian School in Susan Moore, and Rocky Ridge Elementary School in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

At the time it was the greatest outbreak of tornadoes on record in the U.S. The famous “superoutbreak” of tornadoes started… A total of 148 tornadoes swept across 13 states in roughly a 24 hour time frame. From Illinois to North Carolina and from Michigan to Alabama, tornadoes and severe thunderstorms killed 335 people and injured over 6,000. Over 15,000 homes, businesses and farm buildings were destroyed and another 17,000 buildings were damaged. Here in our state, 86 persons were killed, 949 were injured, and damages exceeded $50 million. Sixteen counties in the northern part of the State were hit the hardest. The town of Guin, in Marion County, was just about wiped out by a massive F5 tornado.

Our own J.B. Elliott at the time was working for the National Weather Service, and was on duty that night. We put this story together several years ago…

Warnings like this were issued that night…

I was a senior in high school in April 1974, and I spent several days away from school serving as an amateur radio volunteer in some of the hardest hit areas. That experience would change my life, and set the stage for the long career in weather.

Read more about the event here.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: A big MCS (mesoscale convective system) is over the western Gulf of Mexico, while around Alabama we see just a few scattered sprinkles early this morning. The sky is cloudy, and temperatures are mostly in the 40s at daybreak.

WET: We will mention a chance of scattered light rain today with a cloudy sky and a high only in the low 60s. Rain will increase tonight and tomorrow as a deepening surface low passes just south of Mobile Bay. It will be a cool rain with stable air; we won’t get out of the 50s tomorrow, so no severe weather threat. Rain amounts of around one inch are likely here, with potential for two inches over South Alabama.

We should mention there is a risk of severe weather tomorrow, mainly along and south of I-10 in the warm sector; places like Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona could see a few severe storms, and an isolated tornado is possible there is well.

Clouds will linger into Friday, and a touch of light rain is still possible in spots Friday morning. But, the sky will clear late Friday afternoon into Friday night.

SUNNY WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday look fantastic, with sunny mild days along with highs in the mid 70s. It will be cool early Saturday morning with a low in the 39-43 degree range, but we warm quickly during the morning hours.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday should bring our warmest weather so far this year, with a high not too far from 80 degrees. But, a powerful storm system moving out of the Southwest U.S. seems poised to bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to the Deep South Wednesday, and possibly into early Thursday. Way too early to define the magnitude of the event, and the specific risks, but the idea is clearly on the table.

And, we should mention the 00Z GFS pulls down colder air in the wake of the mid-week system, and even hints at some risk of lows in the 30s toward the end of next week. Just about the time we wanted to give the growers an “all-clear” from a frost risk. Take a few minutes to watch the Weather Xtreme video to see the latest graphics, maps, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms are likely today and Thursday, but sunshine returns Friday, and the weekend looks great along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 70s… the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 66 degrees.

NEED HELP WITH YOUR WEATHER RADIO? We will be at the Publix in McCalla, near McAdory High School tomorrow from 3:30 until 6:30 p.m. If you have questions, need your radio programmed, or need to buy one, come and see us. Now is the time to get ready for severe weather since the core of the season is just ahead.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

A busy today ahead… I have weather programs today in Blount County, and at Rocky Ridge Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT: The sky will become cloudy over Alabama in coming hours ahead of a storm system to the west. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect over parts of South Texas from the Davis Mountains through the Hill Country over to Austin, but we don’t expect any severe weather in our state from this one.

Some light rain is likely at times tomorrow; the rain is most likely over the western half of the state, and it should be light and spotty. Then, the rain becomes more widespread tomorrow night into Thursday. Late model data hints the most widespread rain around here will come from midnight tomorrow night through noon Thursday as a surface low passes just south of Mobile Bay.

Not much change in our thinking; rain totals of at least one inch are likely here, with totals to two inches possible over the southern counties of the state. Not much thunder for us, and no chance of severe weather. It will be a cool rain with temperatures Thursday holding in the 50s.

A few severe storms are possible tomorrow night and Thursday near the immediate Gulf Coast over into Florida… mostly for areas south of I-10.

The rain moves out Friday morning, and the sky will clear late Friday afternoon or Friday night.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: We are still forecasting sunny mild days and fair cool nights over the weekend…. highs in the mid 70s. Saturday morning will be cool; most places will drop into the 40-45 degree range, and some 30s are possible across the colder pockets of Northeast Alabama. There could be a touch of frost in places like Valley Head and Black Creek, but for a large majority (greater than 90 percent) of the state you can go and plant safely now with no more big worries about a frost or a freeze.

WARMEST SO FAR: Next week will be warm. A good chance we see 80 degree warmth for the first time this season by Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately a major storm system will come out of the Southwest U.S., and could bring a major severe weather threat to parts of Texas and the Southern Plains by Tuesday… as it works it was to the east we could very well have some severe weather issues in Alabama late Wednesday or Thursday. Way too early to be specific, but something to watch in coming days since there should be a high degree of instability available, along good dynamic forcing.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details…

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms are likely tomorrow and Thursday, but sunshine returns Friday, and the weekend looks great along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 70s… the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 66 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll for for the show notes for this week’s new episode recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A TOUCH COOLER: A cold front passed through Alabama in dry fashion last night; the airmass now in place will knock about 5 to 8 degrees off the high temperatures we enjoyed yesterday. With a partly sunny sky, we project a high in the mid to upper 60s for most communities today.

Clouds thicken tonight, and tomorrow looks to be a mostly cloudy day as a storm system gathers strength to the west. A little model madness… the 4km NAM wants to bring some rain in here during the day thanks to isentropic lift, while the GFS is dry. We will probably introduce the risk of some light rain during the daytime hours tomorrow if the 12Z run of the NAM is similar.

THURSDAY SOAKER: One way or another, the big rain day will be Thursday thanks to a deep surface low just south of Mobile Bay. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely here, and it should rain most of the day. It will be a cool rain with temperatures in the 50s, and there is no risk of severe weather with the surface low so far south.

Some rain could linger into Friday morning as the surface low moves northeast up the Atlantic coast; I doubt if we see any sunshine Friday, and we stay cool with many places having a hard time getting out of the 50s.

FINE WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday still look delightful. Highs in the mid 70s… the low Saturday morning will be in the 40-45 degree range, and Sunday morning’s lows will be in the 49-53 degree range. A great weekend to get outside and enjoy the fresh air.

NEXT WEEK: For us, it should be the warmest week so far this year with highs not too far from 80 degrees for the first half of the week. To the west, a deep upper trough should bring a significant severe weather/tornado setup to areas west of Alabama Monday and Tuesday. And, it could very well bring the risk of strong to severe storms to our state by Wednesday or Thursday… it remains to be seen what kind of threat, and the exact timing. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics, maps, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Today will be mostly sunny on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but clouds return tonight with a chance of showers tomorrow. Rain and storms are likely Thursday; rain could be heavy in spots. The sky will clear Friday, followed by a beautiful weekend with highs in the low 70s on the immediate coast. Sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 60s.

POLLEN: Levels are expected to be very high today and tomorrow before the rain helps Thursday… here is the outlook from pollen.com

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night. Good to have Dr. Laura Myers on the show with us discussion the social science aspect of the severe weather warning process.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…