Weather

April 2 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
From: abc3340 Views: 681 3 ratings Time: 07:18 More in News & Politics

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

CLOUDS THICKEN TONIGHT: The sky will become cloudy over Alabama in coming hours ahead of a storm system to the west. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect over parts of South Texas from the Davis Mountains through the Hill Country over to Austin, but we don’t expect any severe weather in our state from this one.

Some light rain is likely at times tomorrow; the rain is most likely over the western half of the state, and it should be light and spotty. Then, the rain becomes more widespread tomorrow night into Thursday. Late model data hints the most widespread rain around here will come from midnight tomorrow night through noon Thursday as a surface low passes just south of Mobile Bay.

Not much change in our thinking; rain totals of at least one inch are likely here, with totals to two inches possible over the southern counties of the state. Not much thunder for us, and no chance of severe weather. It will be a cool rain with temperatures Thursday holding in the 50s.

A few severe storms are possible tomorrow night and Thursday near the immediate Gulf Coast over into Florida… mostly for areas south of I-10.

The rain moves out Friday morning, and the sky will clear late Friday afternoon or Friday night.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: We are still forecasting sunny mild days and fair cool nights over the weekend…. highs in the mid 70s. Saturday morning will be cool; most places will drop into the 40-45 degree range, and some 30s are possible across the colder pockets of Northeast Alabama. There could be a touch of frost in places like Valley Head and Black Creek, but for a large majority (greater than 90 percent) of the state you can go and plant safely now with no more big worries about a frost or a freeze.

WARMEST SO FAR: Next week will be warm. A good chance we see 80 degree warmth for the first time this season by Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately a major storm system will come out of the Southwest U.S., and could bring a major severe weather threat to parts of Texas and the Southern Plains by Tuesday… as it works it was to the east we could very well have some severe weather issues in Alabama late Wednesday or Thursday. Way too early to be specific, but something to watch in coming days since there should be a high degree of instability available, along good dynamic forcing.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details…

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms are likely tomorrow and Thursday, but sunshine returns Friday, and the weekend looks great along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 70s… the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 66 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll for for the show notes for this week’s new episode recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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April 2 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
From: abc3340 Views: 667 2 ratings Time: 06:37 More in News & Politics

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A TOUCH COOLER: A cold front passed through Alabama in dry fashion last night; the airmass now in place will knock about 5 to 8 degrees off the high temperatures we enjoyed yesterday. With a partly sunny sky, we project a high in the mid to upper 60s for most communities today.

Clouds thicken tonight, and tomorrow looks to be a mostly cloudy day as a storm system gathers strength to the west. A little model madness… the 4km NAM wants to bring some rain in here during the day thanks to isentropic lift, while the GFS is dry. We will probably introduce the risk of some light rain during the daytime hours tomorrow if the 12Z run of the NAM is similar.

THURSDAY SOAKER: One way or another, the big rain day will be Thursday thanks to a deep surface low just south of Mobile Bay. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely here, and it should rain most of the day. It will be a cool rain with temperatures in the 50s, and there is no risk of severe weather with the surface low so far south.

Some rain could linger into Friday morning as the surface low moves northeast up the Atlantic coast; I doubt if we see any sunshine Friday, and we stay cool with many places having a hard time getting out of the 50s.

FINE WEEKEND: Saturday and Sunday still look delightful. Highs in the mid 70s… the low Saturday morning will be in the 40-45 degree range, and Sunday morning’s lows will be in the 49-53 degree range. A great weekend to get outside and enjoy the fresh air.

NEXT WEEK: For us, it should be the warmest week so far this year with highs not too far from 80 degrees for the first half of the week. To the west, a deep upper trough should bring a significant severe weather/tornado setup to areas west of Alabama Monday and Tuesday. And, it could very well bring the risk of strong to severe storms to our state by Wednesday or Thursday… it remains to be seen what kind of threat, and the exact timing. See the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics, maps, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Today will be mostly sunny on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, but clouds return tonight with a chance of showers tomorrow. Rain and storms are likely Thursday; rain could be heavy in spots. The sky will clear Friday, followed by a beautiful weekend with highs in the low 70s on the immediate coast. Sea water temperatures are generally in the mid 60s.

POLLEN: Levels are expected to be very high today and tomorrow before the rain helps Thursday… here is the outlook from pollen.com

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night. Good to have Dr. Laura Myers on the show with us discussion the social science aspect of the severe weather warning process.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

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WeatherBrains Episode 375 is now online (April 1, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is no stranger to the WeatherBrains crew. This friend of the podcast is a leading social scientist that has made a name for herself in the weatherworld. She is a Research Professor with the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) at Mississippi State University. Dr. Laura Myers serves as Principal Investigator on a Department of Homeland Security grant concerning regional disaster response planning; through this grant, she will develop regional emergency planning networks on the Gulf Coast of the United States. Dr. Myers holds a doctorate in criminology from Florida State University, and her publication and training areas include disaster management and planning, criminal justice education, criminal courts, criminal justice ethics, criminal justice administration, and cultural diversity. Her publications can be found in the Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, the Journal of Criminal Justice Education, and the Prison Journal, among others. Dr. Myers’ latest textbook on criminal justice will be her third book published in this field.!

Our guest panelist is from Waco, TX. Conley Isom works for KXVV-TV. Conley grew up in the Fort Worth area and was fascinated with weather at an early age. It was the hail storm of May, 1995, that made him want to become a TV meteorologist. He took that passion to Texas A&M University where he received his B.S. in Meteorology. While in college, Conley had the opportunity to storm chase and loves to track severe storms.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

National extremes: 91 at Laredo, Pecos, and Weslaco, TX, and -3 at Minot AFB, ND

Amazing drop off in the number of winter weather advisories

Lake effect snow into Tuesday northern New York state

Low humidity in Arizona – 11 Percent at Phoenix

Snow cover declining to around 30 percent

Still 62 inches of snow on the ground at Valdez

Severe thunderstorm moving through northern Texas during the podcast

and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners, so keep Nate busy by piling on those emails.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Admit it – the field of meteorology has almost as many abbreviations and acronyms as the U. S.Government!! One of those that you run into often is MOS, not to be confused with the 12,000 variations of carpeted green “moss” in the woods. There is much that goes into creating the MOS table that many of us refer to, so this episode takes a look at what comprises MOS.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of April 1. This week in weather history included the Super Outbreak of Tornadoes on April 3rd and 4th, 1974.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 375:

Mississippi State University Social Science Research Center

Center for Advanced Public Safety, University of Alabama

Meteorological Development Lab

Skydaver’s Blog

Picks of the Week:

Conley Isom – Texas Storm Chaser web page

Nate Johnson – 53rd Anniversary of First Weather Satellite Images
Dark Sky Forecast

Bill Murray – Analysis of Tri-State Tornado of March, 1925

Brian Peters – Weather Message – software to help with siren activation

Kevin Selle – Snow when to hold ‘em

James Spann – Article about James Hansen leaving NASA

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

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WeatherBrains Episode 375 is now online (April 1, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is no stranger to the WeatherBrains crew. This friend of the podcast is a leading social scientist that has made a name for herself in the weatherworld. She is a Research Professor with the Social Science Research Center (SSRC) at Mississippi State University. Dr. Laura Myers serves as Principal Investigator on a Department of Homeland Security grant concerning regional disaster response planning; through this grant, she will develop regional emergency planning networks on the Gulf Coast of the United States. Dr. Myers holds a doctorate in criminology from Florida State University, and her publication and training areas include disaster management and planning, criminal justice education, criminal courts, criminal justice ethics, criminal justice administration, and cultural diversity. Her publications can be found in the Journal of Business Continuity and Emergency Planning, the Journal of Criminal Justice Education, and the Prison Journal, among others. Dr. Myers’ latest textbook on criminal justice will be her third book published in this field.!

Our guest panelist is from Waco, TX. Conley Isom works for KXVV-TV. Conley grew up in the Fort Worth area and was fascinated with weather at an early age. It was the hail storm of May, 1995, that made him want to become a TV meteorologist. He took that passion to Texas A&M University where he received his B.S. in Meteorology. While in college, Conley had the opportunity to storm chase and loves to track severe storms.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

National extremes: 91 at Laredo, Pecos, and Weslaco, TX, and -3 at Minot AFB, ND

Amazing drop off in the number of winter weather advisories

Lake effect snow into Tuesday northern New York state

Low humidity in Arizona – 11 Percent at Phoenix

Snow cover declining to around 30 percent

Still 62 inches of snow on the ground at Valdez

Severe thunderstorm moving through northern Texas during the podcast

and more!

Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners, so keep Nate busy by piling on those emails.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: Admit it – the field of meteorology has almost as many abbreviations and acronyms as the U. S.Government!! One of those that you run into often is MOS, not to be confused with the 12,000 variations of carpeted green “moss” in the woods. There is much that goes into creating the MOS table that many of us refer to, so this episode takes a look at what comprises MOS.

TWIWH: Bill Murray looks back at the week of April 1. This week in weather history included the Super Outbreak of Tornadoes on April 3rd and 4th, 1974.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 375:

Mississippi State University Social Science Research Center

Center for Advanced Public Safety, University of Alabama

Meteorological Development Lab

Skydaver’s Blog

National Tropical Weather Conference

Picks of the Week:

Conley Isom – Texas Storm Chaser web page

Nate Johnson – 53rd Anniversary of First Weather Satellite Images
Dark Sky Forecast

Bill Murray – Analysis of Tri-State Tornado of March, 1925

Brian Peters – Weather Message – software to help with siren activation

Kevin Selle – Snow when to hold ‘em

James Spann – Article about James Hansen leaving NASA

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

April 1 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
From: abc3340 Views: 382 3 ratings Time: 06:49 More in News & Politics

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE APRIL 1: Doesn’t get much better… tons o’ sun; temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and low humidity. Not many folks complaining about the weather on this April Fool’s Day.

A cold front will pass through the state in dry fashion tonight… and that will drop highs down into the mid 60s tomorrow with a partly sunny sky.

LAST FROST? Many of you are wanting to get some flowers in the ground with these warmer temperatures. Looks like we will have more two mornings with potential for a little frost this season, but mainly over the colder pockets of Northeast Alabama. Early Wednesday morning, temperatures will drop into the 35-40 degree range… and early Saturday morning a few spots could see upper 30s. But, the chance of a widespread freeze/frost situation is over for a large percentage of Alabama.

Clouds will begin to increase Wednesday ahead of a low forming over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Rain will arrive late Wednesday night, most likely after midnight.

THURSDAY SOAKER: Thursday still looks like a wash-out, with a cool, soaking rain most of the day. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely, and some spots could see totals nearing two inches, especially over South Alabama. No severe weather threat with the surface low to the south, and no instability as temperatures won’t get out of the 50s.

The rain will end very early Friday, with some clearing possible by Friday afternoon. Our weather stays cool Friday, and we could hold in the 50s all day unless the sun breaks out early.

WONDERFUL WEEKEND: The weekend ahead still looks fantastic… sunny mild days, clear cool nights. Highs will be in the mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. The low early Saturday will be in the 40s, with low 50s early Sunday. Doesn’t get much better.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like our warmest week so far this season, with potential for 80 degree warmth. A mid-week storm system could bring a chance of strong to severe storms to Alabama and the Deep South, but it is way too early to be specific. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details…

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I had a great time today seeing the kids at Evangel Classical School in Alabaster, and Calera Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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On Monday, April 1, 1974, Mother Nature played a cruel April Fools joke on Alabama.

That morning, a warm and humid airmass was in place across the state.  At 6 a.m., the temperature at Birmingham was 66F with a dewpoint of 64F.  At the surface, a low pressure system was centered over northeastern Missouri.  A cold front trailed southwestward to just east of the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex.  In the mid-levels of the atmosphere, at 500 millibars, or about 18,000 feet, a trough of low pressure was swinging through the Plains states.

It would be a warm day with temperatures in the 80s.  The high at Birmingham was a balmy 86F.  It was 87F in Montgomery.   The stage was set for thunderstorms in the warm sector of the low over Alabama and the Deep South.  I remember the night clearly.  I was 12 years old and very anxious about tornadoes.  I am not quite sure what made me that way, but the chance of severe weather always meant a worrisome night.

The Billy Graham Crusade was on television.  I remember keeping the window open to listen for the sound of thunder or something worse.  A strong southerly windy made the curtains blow in the breeze.

The evening passed with tornado watches and warnings.  A couple of tornadoes skipped across the state.  One was uncomfortably close to home in Blount County.  It moved along an 18 miles path from Hayden to Locust Fork to Oneonta.  Three houses and 13 mobiles were destroyed.  Most of the damage was at a mobile home park on Highway 79 near Oneonta.  Eleven people were injured.

But the most newsworthy tornado of the evening occurred around 9 p.m.  It touched down in the Sherwood and Research Park sections of western and northwestern Huntsville. One man died in a mobile home north of Huntsville.   But the damage would be nothing compared to what would follow two days later.

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April 1 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
From: abc3340 Views: 620 3 ratings Time: 05:36 More in News & Politics

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MILD AFTERNOON: We project a high in the low to mid 70s across the great state of Alabama today with a pretty good supply of sunshine… a great way to start the month of April. There is a touch of dense fog in spots, but that will burn off soon.

A cold front will pass through tonight; it will bring some clouds, but no rain is expected. Then, tomorrow, the high will drop about ten degrees, as we will peak in the mid 60s in the wake of the front. We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow as the weather stays dry.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Fear of a late season frost has greatly lessened early Wednesday. Clouds will be moving into the state, and most places will see a low in the 40s. However, colder valleys across the far northeast tip of Alabama might make a run at the mid 30s with a touch of frost possible.

The sky will be mostly cloudy Wednesday as a storm builds strength over the western Gulf of Mexico; the high will be in the low to mid 60s. Rain will likely move into Alabama Wednesday night.

THURSDAY SOAKER: A deep surface low is expected to pass just south of Mobile, and a cool, soaking rain is likely Thursday statewide. No severe weather with the low to the south, and probably very little thunder. Just a big rain event with temperatures holding in the 50s much of the day. Rain amounts of one to two inches are likely around here before the rain tapers off Thursday night.

Any lingering showers will end Friday morning, and the clearing process should begin by Friday afternoon.

DELIGHTFUL WEEKEND: The weekend looks just about perfect. Sunny mild days, clear cool nights. Early Saturday morning will be in the 40s, but we rise quickly, with a high in the mid 70s Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be mostly sunny, and the GFS is printing a high of 77 for Birmingham.

TIME TO PLANT: Let’s look at the 12Z model set later this morning, but I am just about ready to declare no more frost/freeze threats for this season for most of Alabama. Look for a green light this afternoon for growers. No sign of any cold air shots through mid-April on models, and late season frost/freeze threats are extremely rare here past April 10. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas, along with the maps and graphics.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT. You can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus

I have weather programs today at Evangel Classical School in Alabaster, and at Calera Elementary School. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon; enjoy the day!

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A check of the radar this evening shows most of Alabama remains rain free. Heavier storms have been to the south where there were a couple of severe thunderstorms warnings for Dallas and Lowndes Counties earlier this afternoon. More intense storms continue across some of our southern counties, even a couple of reports of small hail near Troy this evening, but luckily none of these storms are currently severe.

Across our part of the state some showers with a few rumbles of thunder stretch across our northern counties from Vernon and Sulligent in Lamar County, through Jasper, Cullman and to near Mentone. This activity will continue to move east through out the night and we could see a few more showers across the Birmingham Metro tonight. Not expecting severe weather and the rain should get out of here by the morning.

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LATE REPORT
Quarter sized hail covering the ground at Collirene in Lowndes County. Completely covering the ground. The hail core will pass near Moss before 5 p.m. and near Haynesville shortly after 5. Be prepared for 2 inch hail!.

ORIGINAL POST
Our storm which has a high potential for large hail is entering Lowndes County now, and will pass near Haynesville and Lowndesboro after passing near or north of moss and Gordonville.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 426 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF BELKNAP…OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SELMONT-WEST SELMONT…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MOSSES…HAYNEVILLE…BENTON…GORDONVILLE…WHITE HALL…
LOWNDESBORO…COLLIRENE AND MANACK.

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A severe thunderstorm has developed south of Selma. It is moving east northeast.

The main hail core, with hail to the size of quarters, will pass south of Sardis and Benton and towards Lowndesboro.

Here is the polygon that is the warning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 407 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DALLAS
LAKE…OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF SELMONT-WEST SELMONT…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
TYLER.

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An update from the Weather Center at 1:35 p.m…

An area of moderate to heavy showers is pushing from west to east across West Central Alabama at this hour. The heaviest rain is across Tuscaloosa County, poised to push across the City of Tuscaloosa. I couldn’t find any lightning, but we can’t rule out an isolated stroke or two if the convection grows.

The activity is being fed a steady diet of slightly unstable air, so it will probably hold together.

The showers are associated with another disturbance in the upper flow across the area. Watching radar animations, you can see a subtle spin in the precipitation echoes.

Skies are mostly cloudy, but there are a few breaks in the clouds across the Black Belt counties, such as Hale, Marengo, Dallas and Perry. Sunshine is evident on the Skycam from Selma.

The sun was also trying to break out across North Central Alabama, around Jefferson, Blount and Cullman Counties. Temperatures are climbing through the lower 60s, heading toward highs in the middle and upper 60s generally.

Looking back to the west, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues pushing southeastward across Louisiana and into western Mississippi. It has been pushing southeast but appears to be turning more east in the upper flow. It may affect areas generally south of a line from Aliceville to Calera to Roanoke later.

Outside of this complex of storms, scattered storms will develop over North Central and North Alabama this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front that will cross the area tonight.

Organized severe weather is not expected across North Central Alabama, but along and south of US-80, there may be enough instability for several severe thunderstorm warnings as the complex moves across the area. And we can’t rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm over the rest of the area this afternoon and evening if instability can fuel thunderstorm updrafts sufficiently.

Tuscaloosa had already picked up one half inch of rain (0.48″) through 1:30.

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An area of showers, heavy at times, has settled into a west to east orientation across Central Alabama from Pickens and Sumter County in the west into Shelby, Chilton and Autauga Counties over into Clay and Tallapoosa Counties in the east.

There is still some lightning in the western counties, especially near and southwest of Carrollton, but the activity has weakened substantially in the past couple of hours.

There are some moderate to heavy showers in the Tennessee Valley from Guntersville back to Decatur and then over much of eastern Lauderdale and Limestone counties.

Everything is moving east.

A complex and confusing surface pattern clutters the weather maps this morning across the southeastern quarter of the United States. A collection of surface low centers is over southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. A cold front trails back into the Dallas area. Ahead of the system, a warm front has pushed into Kentucky and is working against the wedge to get across the Smokies into North Carolina.

A QLCS (Quasi-linear convective system), a fancy name for a line of storms, is pushing across southern Arkansas and northeastern Texas into northwestern Louisiana at this hour. There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect as well as several severe thunderstorm warnings at this hour. There was even a brief tornado warning in northeastern Texas. This activity will weaken and move across Louisiana into Central Mississippi. It should stay well to our southwest.

More storms will fire this afternoon across northern Mississippi ahead of the cold front and these storms will work into Alabama later. They won’t be severe. They should be east of I-65 by 9 p.m. and into Georgia by midnight.

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An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

It’s going to be a wet Easter Sunday across much of Alabama as a combination of upper level disturbances and a surface front bring showers and thunderstorms to the area.

As we noted yesterday, a series of upper level disturbances are passing the area. We had one yesterday afternoon and evening that brought about a quarter of an inch to most folks. This morning, two more disturbances are poised to affect us. One over Mississippi will bring an area of showers and thundershowers to much of the north and central portions of Alabama. We get a short break in the rain before the second disturbance now affecting Oklahoma and Missouri, moves across the area. It is this second disturbance that will finally push the front to our northwest through much of Alabama. With the front passing, we should see some sunshine and drier weather on Monday while temperatures change very little.

We will definitely be hearing some thunder today and tonight, however, I do not believe the conditions for organized severe weather is very high. A few storms could be strong, and SPC has outlined a risk of severe storms from South Central Mississippi westward into the Hill Country of Texas. Rainfall amounts are likely to be in the range of three quarters of an inch to a little over an inch. Because the rain comes in the form of showers and thunderstorms, I think the rainfall amounts could vary substantially with some spots getting about half an inch while others may get as much as one and a half inches. I do not expect flooding issues, however, rain may be heavy in spots so isolated flash flooding may be possible.

A second front without any precipitation should come in here on Tuesday and that will drop temperatures once again. Tuesday should be noticeably colder with highs in the lower 60s. Wednesday morning we are likely to see some locales dip into the 30s, but I do not believe we will see a significant freeze.

Wednesday we should see clouds increase quickly with rain chances climbing as a strong short wave trough moves out of the southern Rockies into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Our best chance for rain comes Thursday, however, depending on the exact timing of the upper trough, we could see some showers reaching Alabama by Wednesday evening. That trough will cross the Mississippi River on Thursday with a surface low coming out of the northern Gulf of Mexico. That low will move quickly to the Mid-Atlantic coast by midday Friday returning dry weather to Alabama and promising a dry and warm weekend.

Yesterday I noted the extreme difference between the ECMWF and the GFS. Today, those two models have come much closer in their solutions with the GFS bringing the surface low further north and the ECMWF pushing it a bit further south. So the track forecasts of both are in close agreement which improves the confidence in the forecast for the latter part of the coming week. There are still some differences in the models especially in the strength of the low, but those are minor compared with the huge differences we saw yesterday.

Heaviest rainfall will be focused along and just south of the track of the surface low. For Central Alabama, rainfall amounts are likely to be around one inch, but along the Gulf Coast, rainfall total for the storm could reach 2 to 3 inches. Severe weather is probably a fairly likely occurrence for the Florida Peninsula on Thursday or early Friday, but we should be primarily in a rain area.

Late Friday and into Saturday, we begin to come under the influence of an upper ridge. Several weak disturbances will be moving across the ridge, however, I expect to see only some passing clouds since there will not be any moisture to deal with plus the ridge should be strong enough to keep the best dynamics well north of Alabama. It should be a lovely Sunday with the ridge coming across the Mississippi River and highs reaching the lower to middle 70s.

The pattern remains active looking into week 2. As noted yesterday, a strong trough with a potential for severe weather comes at us around April 10th. The GFS suggests another low latitude short wave trough around April 13th with yet another system that would likely bring another risk for severe weather around April 16th. So no rest in the weather department as the springtime conveyor belt of storms gets cranked up!

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Ashley Brand J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I hope that you have a good day today even with the wet weather forecast. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Be sure to stay up with the Blog today as we keep you posted on the latest developments in the weather for Central Alabama. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

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March 31 Weather Xtreme Video
The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: abc3340 Views: 30 0 ratings Time: 08:05 More in News & Politics

Most Easter sunrise services are going off without a hitch weather wise across Central Alabama this morning.

The exceptions are over Lamar and Pickens Counties where showers and storms were rumbling in from Mississippi and over parts of Marion, Winston and Walker Counties, where some lighter showers and storms were occurring.

The heaviest storm was just west of Carrollton in southere Pickens County. This cell had indications of half inch hail. Lots of lightning and thunder too. This activity was pushing southeast toward northern Sumter and Greene Counties and will brush the Tuscaloosa area as well.

Behind this, another complex of storms was over Central Mississippi. It has been accompanied by severe thunderstorm warnings which remain in effect just west of Winona. This activity will be into western Alabama’s Pickens, Greene and Sumter Counties between 8:30 and 9.

There could be isolated severe storms across the area today so pay attention to later weather information here on the blog. There is no formal risk in effect for Alabama, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be some severe weather.

There was fog in areas where skies cleared briefly last night, but clouds associated with the storms were moving back in at sunrise. Temperatures were in the 50s.

Brian will be posting the video and forecast discussion in minutes.

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For the rest of tonight, most areas in North Central Alabama will continue to see some light to moderate rain for the next few hours. The rain should begin to taper off by later tonight and into the early morning hours. We can even see a few of the severe storms in Missouri and Oklahoma showing up in this radar image.

As we head into Easter Sunday, the weather will be very similar to today. The latest model runs continue to show the morning looking mostly dry, but there could be a few stray showers lingering around. Most of those sunrise services should be ok. Expect a mostly cloudy morning and we could even see a few peeks of sunshine in the morning. Clouds and additional showers and thunderstorms head our way by the afternoon.  The forecast map below is very close to what I expect heading into tomorrow morning.  Conditions look to be mostly dry, showers and thunderstorms will be off to our west. Cold front dropping to the southeast will be the focal point for the showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. May see a bit more in the way of thunderstorms tomorrow, but we are still not expecting any severe weather. The rain and storms will last into tomorrow evening and should last through much of tomorrow night.

The second front over northern Missouri will be dropping towards us will be the one that brings a different air mass to Alabama. Monday should be mostly dry and very warm, but the second front will cross the state and with it, much cooler air that will settle in for the mid part of the week.

 

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