Weather

WeatherBrains 459: Millions in the Bulls Eye

ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Tue, 11/11/2014 - 06:15

WeatherBrains Episode 459 is now online (November 10, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Ground Validation Unit. He received his BS and MS in Electrical Engineering from The Warsaw University of Technology and PhD in Water Resources Engineering from The University of Iowa. Dr. Piotr Domaszczynski, welcome to WeatherBrains.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 88 at Blythe, CA, and Elsinore, CA, and 1 at Great Falls, MT
  • Arctic air flooding the Nation
  • Breaking News: Fropa in Norman, OK, during the show
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet as is severe weather
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: A tweet I noted last week prompted me to take a look at the naming of moons by Native Americans. While it was the Name “Full Beaver Moon” that got my attention, it was interesting to find out that some of those names had their origins with weather events.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 459:

    GPM Global Precipitation Measurement

    TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

    Picks of the Week:

    Piotr Domaszczynski – Humbled by Forecast Decisions

    Bill Murray – Weather Watch S6E3

    Brian Peters – NHC’s National Map of Storm Surge Risk

    John Scala – Satellite animation of Super Typhoon Nuri

    Rick Smith – Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911

    James Spann – Sinking of SS Edmund Fitzgerald

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Winter in Less than 4 hours

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    WeatherBrains 459: Millions in the Bulls Eye

    WeatherBrains - Tue, 11/11/2014 - 05:45

    WeatherBrains Episode 459 is now online (November 10, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

    Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Ground Validation Unit. He received his BS and MS in Electrical Engineering from The Warsaw University of Technology and PhD in Water Resources Engineering from The University of Iowa. Dr. Piotr Domaszczynski, welcome to WeatherBrains.

    Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 88 at Blythe, CA, and Elsinore, CA, and 1 at Great Falls, MT
  • Arctic air flooding the Nation
  • Breaking News: Fropa in Norman, OK, during the show
  • Tropical Atlantic is quiet as is severe weather
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is continuing to handle the incoming messages from our listeners.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: A tweet I noted last week prompted me to take a look at the naming of moons by Native Americans. While it was the Name “Full Beaver Moon” that got my attention, it was interesting to find out that some of those names had their origins with weather events.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 459:

    GPM Global Precipitation Measurement

    TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

    Sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald

    Picks of the Week:

    Piotr Domaszczynski – Humbled by Forecast Decisions

    Bill Murray – Weather Watch S6E3

    Brian Peters – NHC’s National Map of Storm Surge Risk

    John Scala – Satellite animation of Super Typhoon Nuri

    Rick Smith – Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911

    James Spann – Sinking of SS Edmund Fitzgerald

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Winter in Less than 4 hours

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    November 10, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 11/10/2014 - 16:16
    November 10, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 658 9 ratings Time: 07:32 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    One More Mild Day; Then Much Colder

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 11/10/2014 - 16:10

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    FINE FALL DAY: As expected, temperatures have recovered very nicely from the frosty start earlier today; many places are reporting 70 degrees at mid-afternoon with a deep blue autumn sky. Tonight won’t be as cold; we stay well above freezing with lows in the 40s, and a good chance we see low 70s tomorrow. A good chance tomorrow will be our warmest day for the rest of November, so enjoy it.

    TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY: A band of light rain will move into Alabama tomorrow night ahead of the long anticipated Arctic cold front. With very limited moisture, a number of communities won’t get enough rain to measure, and it will be over by 6:00 a.m. Wednesday. Then, during the day Wednesday, much colder air begins to move into our state. The temperature gradient will be pretty tight; north of Birmingham most places won’t get out of the 40s; Birmingham should see low 50s, with mid to upper 50s south of Birmingham. The sky will be generally cloudy Wednesday with a gusty north wind and only a limited amount of sunshine; a blustery day.

    VERY COLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Highs drop into the 40s on these two days, with lows in the 20s. The coldest morning should come early Friday, with potential for mid 20s across much of North/Central Alabama. The air will be dry and we expect a good supply of sunshine both days.

    OUR WEEKEND: Saturday will be cold and dry, but we should creep up into the low 50s Saturday afternoon with a partly sunny sky. Then, a cold rain is likely statewide Sunday with temperatures holding in the 40s through the day over the northern half of the state.

    Just north of Alabama, snow is possible Sunday over Tennessee; way too early to determine placement and location of the heaviest snow. It will be a close call for those that live along the Alabama/Tennessee border, but for now it looks like just a cold rain for North Alabama. We will keep a very close eye on model trends in coming days.

    Rain amounts Sunday should average 1/2 inch, with potential for a little more in spots.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

    The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

    Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

    And, a big game for UAB Saturday as they host Marshall at Birmingham’s Legion Field (1:00p CT kickoff)… a partly sunny sky at kickoff with about 50 degrees, but temperatures will fall into the 40s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes down.

    NEXT WEEK: Yet another surge of cold air arrives after the rain; highs drop into the 40s again Monday and Tuesday, with potential for lows in the 20s. It is a very cold pattern for November for the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

    Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details….

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:00 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at East Elementary in Cullman… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here early tomorrow by 7:00 a.m….

    Categories: Weather

    Very Cold Air Arrives Later This Week

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Mon, 11/10/2014 - 07:34

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    NICE WARM-UP TODAY: We are starting off this day with sub-freezing temperatures across parts of North Alabama… some of the colder readings at daybreak:

    Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 27
    Gadsden 28
    Russellville 30
    Haleyville 30
    Cullman 31
    Concord 31
    Sycamore 31
    Montevallo 32
    Fort Payne 32

    Despite the frosty start, the dry air in place will heat very effectively, and we project a high around 70 today with a good supply of sunshine.

    Low 70s are a good possibility tomorrow, and that should be our warmest day for at least the next two weeks, so enjoy it. The sky will be partly sunny, although clouds will begin to thicken late in the day.

    A FEW SPRINKLES: We will mention the chance of a little scattered light rain tomorrow night or very early Wednesday morning ahead of the Arctic front, but many places won’t get enough rain to measure due to limited moisture. If you are lucky you might see 0.05″.

    COLDEST AIR SO FAR: The big cool down begins Wednesday as strong north winds develop over the state. The gradient will be tight; out friends up across the Tennessee Valley won’t get out of the 40s; places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will see low to mid 50s, but the wind will make it feel colder. Clouds will also linger much of the day, with only a limited amount of sun Wednesday.

    Our coldest days will come on Thursday and Friday; with highs in the 40s, and lows in the 20s. The coldest morning should come early Friday, with a low between 23 and 27 for North/Central Alabama… easily the coldest air we have seen so far this season. These two days will be dry with a sunny sky.

    OUR WEEKEND: Another very cold morning Saturday with lows in the 20s, but we warm into the low 50s Saturday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Clouds move in Saturday night, and a cold rain looks like Sunday statewide as low pressure moves along the Gulf Coast. This sure looks like a beneficial rain for the state, with amounts over 1/2 inch likely.

    To the north, our friends in Tennessee and Kentucky might be dealing with some winter precipitation, but that mischief should not impact Alabama at all… just rain down here. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school playoff games Friday night, we project a kickoff temperature around 40 degrees, then falling through the 30s during the games. Needless to say, you will need to bundle up. The sky will be clear.

    The biggest college game in the country will be in Tuscaloosa Saturday as Mississippi State comes to town to take on Alabama. If you are planning on being with the ESPN GameDay crew, early morning temperatures will be in the upper 20s, rising through the 30s, and reaching the 40s by late morning. The kickoff temperature (2:30p CT) will be close to 52 degrees with a partly sunny sky, but as the sun goes down temperatures will drop quickly into the 40s during the second half.

    Auburn will be over in Athens, GA to take on the Georgia Bulldogs Saturday evening (6:15p CT kickoff)… expect a party cloudy sky with a temperature near 46 degrees at kickoff, then dropping slowly through the 40s during the game.

    And, a big game for UAB Saturday as they host Marshall at Birmingham’s Legion Field (1:00p CT kickoff)… a partly sunny sky at kickoff with about 50 degrees, but temperatures will fall into the 40s by the fourth quarter as the sun goes down.

    LONG RANGE: Temperatures are expected to remain below average for the U.S. east of the Rockies through November 23…

    Some evidence the pattern relaxes late in the month.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    I will be doing a weather program this morning at East Elementary in Cullman… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day…

    Categories: Weather

    November 10, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Mon, 11/10/2014 - 07:29
    November 10, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 1296 8 ratings Time: 08:21 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Frost Advisory Tonight

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 11/09/2014 - 18:58

    …FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST
    MONDAY.

    * TEMPERATURES…OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 DEGREES.

    * IMPACTS…THE FROST WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE
    PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
    PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

    Categories: Weather

    Gorgeous Sunday Afternoon

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 11/09/2014 - 16:09

    It is such a beautiful day across the entire state. We are once again seeing a nearly completely clear sky across the state, with just a few clouds over southeastern portions of the state.

    It was another chilly start to the day, with widespread 30s and 40s. Under the sun-filled sky, temps are once again in the 60s in most locations this afternoon.

    Tonight, under a mostly clear sky, we will see our temps drop back into the 30s area wide. Heading into the work week, temps will be moderating and we should see highs near the 70s degree mark, but by the middle part of the week, a very strong cold front will bring in a very cold air mass into the state to end the week. Enjoy the next few days or warm weather.

    Categories: Weather

    Cool Today but Warmer Mon & Tue

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 11/09/2014 - 08:14

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Another cold front moved through the state last night and early this morning with much of the cloudiness associated with it now east of Central Alabama. With a good supply of sunshine, highs should climb into the lower and middle 60s across the area.

    Weak ridging will keep our weather dry and warmer for Monday and Tuesday as highs climb into the 70s – just slightly above our typical highs for this time of year. But don’t get too comfortable with the warm weather since the bottom is going to fall out of the temperatures for the end of the week.

    A large closed low over the western Great Lakes will carve out a trough over the eastern US Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Showers will be possible with the front on Tuesday night and into the first half of Wednesday, but moisture will be limited so don’t look for a lot of rain. Rainfall totals are forecast to be fairly light, probably less than a quarter of an inch for those places that do see a shower. After the front passes, the cold air moves into the Southeast US.

    Depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage, Wednesday could be one of those days where temperatures hold steady or fall throughout the day as the wind comes around to the northwest with some chilly gusts. Thursday and Friday will be quite chilly with lows near freezing and daily highs struggling to get out of the 40s.

    Another substantial wave moves through the trough on Sunday and the GFS suggests a fairly wet event for the Southeastern US then. With the dry weather we’ve seen over the last several weeks, we could use a good soaker. But there is also a downside to this situation. It will be possible for a shot at winter weather somewhere in the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. But we are much too early to be specific on an exact location or the exact nature of the event, but the pattern certainly supports this idea, so we’ll need to keep a wary eye on future model runs.

    As we get out further into voodoo, the pattern remains pretty active with another substantial short wave around the 22nd followed quickly by yet another trough around the 24th.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    James Spann will be up first thing on Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy the lovely Fall weather before the chill next week. Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    November 9, 2014, Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Sun, 11/09/2014 - 08:10
    November 9, 2014, Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 417 4 ratings Time: 04:45 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Tabloid Weather Reporting Takes Over

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sun, 11/09/2014 - 08:06

    I have been doing weather on television since the summer of 1978… and over these 36 years I can clearly say the level of outrageous hyperbole in the weather business has never been this extreme. It is coming from many sources, and there are days when it seems like it overpowers logic and conventional forecasts.

    On some days, I will spend one to two hours answering questions from people who want to know if “what they saw on Facebook” is true (and I assure you, I don’t have one to two hours to do this). Friday’s idiotic post of the day was from none other than CBS News…

    Seems like the national media has gone loco when it comes to weather. This is what you are going to hear all season long, apparently (graphic from Mike Rawlins)…

    Yep, every weather system this season it seems will be a “polar vortex monster storm with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning”.

    Add to the mix people posting medium range (7 to 15 day) computer model voodoo snow forecasts, and the confusion gets out of hand. On almost any cold season day, I can find at least one global model that paints a North Alabama snow in the 7 to 15 day time frame. And, of course, there is no skill in a specific forecast at that range, and they hardly ever happen. Just like the medium range voodoo model hurricane forecasts in summer that are bogus.

    When it comes to snow hysteria, and I have written before part of this is OUR problem after the botched January 28 snow forecast earlier this year. I don’t blame people for not trusting us; they will run to the most terrifying forecast that can find and believe it since we have to rebuild our credibility. And, they share that outrageous forecast like wildfire on Facebook.

    We call this “clickbait”… people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn’t matter in this game… it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.

    I ask that you think before you share any weather content on social media.

    WHAT YOU GET FROM US: When I say “us”… I mean the meteorologists at ABC 33/40 and The Weather Factory. You will get a forecast product that is accurate as the science allows. I have been going the “Weather Xtreme video” for over 12 years now… a twice daily video that clearly explains WHY we are forecasting what you read and see. Open for the world to see, and easy to use. We have spent many long hours writing these blog discussions and forecasts… we will be wrong from time to time, but we stand by our verification history, which is very strong.

    WHAT YOU WON’T GET FROM US: Forecasts of “polar vortex monster storms with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning”. Wild medium range voodoo snow forecasts. Clickbait.

    Maybe I am fighting a losing battle, and the clickbait guys will win. But, as long as I am here expect the same content, level of service, and professional weather products without the hype. Thanks for being part of our “blog family”… I sincerely appreciate it, and your interest in real weather products that, while never perfect, is done with much care and sound science.

    Categories: Weather

    A Nice, Cool Fall Saturday

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 11/08/2014 - 15:18

    It was a chilly start to the day with most locations in the lower to mid 30s this morning. We have since warmed up into the 60s this afternoon under a sun-filled sky.

    Now depending on you location across the state, there are varying sky conditions. In the southeastern portions of the state, it is a mostly cloudy day, especially across the Wiregrass Region, as well in the northwestern corner of the state. Central Alabama remains in the sun, and heading into the overnight hours, we should see clouds move into the most area of the state. These clouds will act as a blanket an help keep temps a little warmer overnight with lows closer to 40 for most areas.

    For Sunday, it will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid-60s across the area.

    Categories: Weather

    Latest U.S. Drought Monitor

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 11/08/2014 - 12:00

    Much of the state of California continues to suffer from exceptional drought conditions, with little to no relief expected anytime soon. In Texas, recent rains continue to help conditions improve. The exceptional drought conditions there are only affecting northern portions of  Texas and into Oklahoma.

    For Alabama, locations across the Tennessee Valley continue to be in the best shape with no drought conditions being reported. Abnormally dry conditions are affecting 67.39% of the state this week, and that has increased from 60.59% of the state last week. Very little rain the last week, continues to allow drought condition to worsen across the state. Last week, moderate drought was occurring in 17.23% of the state, this week, it has jumped to 25.94% of the state. These conditions are very prevalent along the Interstate 20 corridor and for areas to the south.

    We also continue to see severe drought conditions persisting in Clay and Tallapoosa counties. As we look at the forecast the next seven days, we do have a chance of rain, but we are not expecting enough to help with these very dry conditions in the state. With the continued dry pattern, it looks as though conditions may continue to get worse before they get better.

    Click image to enlarge.

    Categories: Weather

    November 8, 2014, Weather Xtreme Video

    Weather Xtreme Video - Sat, 11/08/2014 - 08:24
    November 8, 2014, Weather Xtreme Video
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 274 3 ratings Time: 04:34 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Warmer After a Chilly Start

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Sat, 11/08/2014 - 08:23

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    Alabama’s weather getting off to a chilly start this morning with morning temperatures mainly in the lower half of the 30s. Our Skywatcher in Black Creek reported a good frost this morning with a low of 27. We should see plenty of sunshine today so I expect temperatures to warm into the lower and middle 60s, but those values will still be 5 to 7 degrees below our seasonal average for highs for early November.

    For football-goers, Auburn hosts Texas A&M this afternoon at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Alabama plays on the road; they take on LSU tonight in Baton Rouge where the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half. And UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Legion Field today with an 11:00 am kickoff. There will be a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and lower 60s by the fourth quarter.

    It should be another nice Fall day on Sunday. A good supply of sunshine will not help overcome the effects of a weak front passing through Central Alabama with highs once again in the lower 60s.

    Monday and Tuesday remain dry with weak ridging aloft. We should see a fairly nice warm up with highs approaching 70 degrees, close to seasonal values. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the approach of another cold front. There will be some moisture return, so look for showers as a good possibility on Wednesday. Like the last front, there does not appear to be enough instability to generate any thunder with the showers.

    By the end of the week, it will be getting colder, but herein lies the rub. I expect the cold air to be somewhat shallow, and the models do not typically handle shallow cold air situations very well. MOS guidance suggests highs in the 50s for Friday, but depending on the strength of this system, we might not see highs get out of the 40s. So our forecast will remain fluid for now.

    Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains fairly active with a couple of good shots at precipitation around the 16th and again around the 20th/21st. The pattern also keeps a chilly look with a trough over the eastern half of the country.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    Frost Advisory Tonight

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 11/07/2014 - 21:02

    …FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
    SATURDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST
    ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
    SATURDAY.

    * TEMPERATURES…SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 DEGREES.

    * IMPACTS…THE FROST WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE
    PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
    PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

    Categories: Weather

    November 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Fri, 11/07/2014 - 16:24
    November 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 486 4 ratings Time: 05:58 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather

    Dry Weekend; Chilly Nights

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 11/07/2014 - 16:19

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    COOL AUTUMN AIR: Despite a sunny sky, temperatures are over 10 degrees below average in most places across Alabama today… with temperatures generally in the mid 50s this afternoon.

    Tonight will be cold; we drop into the mid 30s early tomorrow, with potential for a freeze for the colder valleys and protected areas. The NWS in Birmingham has issued a frost advisory.

    THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: After the cold start, we rise into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Sunday will be another sunny day with a high very close to 60.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tonight; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

    Auburn hosts Texas A&M tomorrow at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

    Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU tomorrow night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

    UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field tomorrow (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

    NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be dry and mild with a high close to 70; showers could creep into North Alabama Tuesday night ahead of a cold front.

    EARLY SEASON ARCTIC SHOT: The coldest air so far this season will ease into the state late next week. Computer models won’t have a good grasp on this because initially the cold air here will be very shallow, but there is a very real chance highs will drop into the 40s over North Alabama Friday and Saturday, with potential for lows in the 20s. The weekend of November 15-16 is looking very cold at this point, but dry. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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    Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

    Categories: Weather

    Cooler Today; Dry Weekend Ahead

    ABC 33/40 Weather Blog - Fri, 11/07/2014 - 07:21

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    COOL FALL WEATHER: Many Alabama communities enjoyed a high around 70 degrees yesterday, but today should be about 15 degrees cooler. Our forecast high today of 55 is twelve degrees below the average high of 67 for November 7. The air is dry and the sky will remain sunny.

    OUR WEEKEND: It begins with a cold morning; most communities will see a low between 33 and 37 early tomorrow, but colder valleys will see a light freeze. Then, expect a good supply of sunshine tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the low 60s.

    FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tonight; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

    Auburn hosts Texas A&M tomorrow at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

    Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU tomorrow night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

    UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field tomorrow (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

    NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be relatively mild with a high around 70 degrees both days. Then, a cold front will bring the chance of a little light rain Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Unfortunately this won’t be a big rain event; Birmingham has measured only 0.47″ of rain over the past 23 days.

    COLDEST AIR SO FAR: A shot of very cold, Arctic air will invade Alabama after the front on Thursday and Friday. A good chance highs drop into the 40s, with lows in the 20s for many areas. And, the cold air should linger into at least the beginning of the weekend. For now it looks like a very cold football Saturday on November 15. A few records could be challenged on these days; we will be much more specific about the timing and temperature forecasts early next week.

    The new high resolution GFS model shows temperatures around here only in the low to mid 40s during the midday hours next Thursday (November 13)…

    See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

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    Categories: Weather

    November 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition

    Weather Xtreme Video - Fri, 11/07/2014 - 07:20
    November 7, 2014 Weather Xtreme Video - Morning Edition
    The ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is a detailed weather discussion for Alabama and the Southeast U.S. which goes beyond the normal stuff you see on TV! From... From: ABC 33/40 Weather Views: 722 5 ratings Time: 05:34 More in News & Politics
    Categories: Weather