ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 14 min 27 sec ago

Snow Showers/Flurries End This Evening

3 hours 30 min ago

COLD NIGHT AHEAD: The weather across Alabama today behaved as expected; the most numerous snow showers have been over the northeast counties, where a few spots have measured over one inch. Marshall, Jackson, DeKalb, and Cherokee Counties remain under a “winter weather advisory” due to the potential for slick/icy spots…

There has been basically no impact from the snow flurries for places like Birmingham, Anniston, Gadsden, and Tuscaloosa, as expected. Flurries and snow showers will end this evening across the state as the sky becomes clear. We drop into the low 20s early tomorrow, some of the colder pockets could see upper teens.

TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: Cold air stays in place tomorrow; despite sunshine in full supply the high will be only in the low 40s. Then, we begin to warm Thursday with a high between 55 and 58 degrees along with a partly sunny sky.

A cold front will pass through Friday; it will bring scattered clouds, but it looks like the air will be too dry for any rain. The high Friday will drop back to near 50 degrees.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Another surge of colder air will arrive just in time for the weekend. Expect a sunny sky Saturday and Sunday, but highs will be only in the 40s. And, the coldest morning will come early Sunday; most communities will see a low between 20 and 23 degrees, with upper teens for colder valleys and protected areas.

WINTER MISCHIEF MONDAY? The next wave will bring precipitation into the state Monday morning, and thermal profiles will be close to supporting an initial mix of freezing rain, sleet, and maybe a few snow flakes over parts of North Alabama. Understand there is absolutely no way to resolve details on a system like this six days away… it could be just a cold rain, or we could have some type of winter weather impact for the Monday morning commute over the northern third of the state. Just understand this possibility is on the table, and we will fine tune the forecast in coming days. But, for now, we will mention a “wintry mix” Monday morning, followed by rain Monday afternoon with a high in the 40s. Check out the Weather Xtreme video for all the maps, graphics, and more details.

WARMER DAYS: A pattern change is in the cards, and it sure looks like we will enjoy warmer weather in the February 17-24 period with highs well up into the 60s; we might even touch 70 degrees one afternoon.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today speaking to the students at Appalachian School in Blount County… be watching for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Winter Weather Advisory for Cherokee County

8 hours 28 min ago

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a winter weather advisory for Cherokee County. It will remain in effect until 9 p.m.

Beverly Daniel from Cherokee County EMA reports there is a good dusting in most places on the mountain. Getting reports of heavier snow in the very northern part of the county north of Gaylesville. She also reports that County Road 48 going up the mountain from Al Hwy 273 is covered with snow.

There is quite a bit of snow upstream from Cherokee County as well that will be rotating through over the next couple of hours.

If you must travel across Cherokee County, please use extreme caution.

Categories: Weather

Flakes are Flying!

9 hours 27 min ago

LATE REPORT at 9:12:
US-231 closed at Brindley Mountain in northeastern Morgan County. Traffic is a nightmare in that area.

The highway 231 bridge over the Tennessee River is closed according to EMA.

Flakes are flying across North and Central Alabama this morning. Our favorite flake @spann is getting greetings from far and wide. The one above is courtesy of @michaelsteeley in Pigeon Forge TN.

The image below is the Birmingham radar on the left, the Hytop radar in North Alabama on the right, showing the hydrometeor classification algorithm display, with lots of light snow flurries and showers showing up.

Indeed, snow showers are affecting Central Alabama this morning, with reports of big, fluffy flakes from all sorts of places like Helena and Mountain Brook and Hoover and Pell City. There aren’t many of them, and certainly not enough to cause trouble for now. The heaviest concentrations are over southern Walker, southwestern Jefferson and northeastern Tuscaloosa Counties with another concentration over southern Blount and northeastern Jefferson Counties.

Pretty much if you are in Walker, Blount, Jefferson, eastern Tuscaloosa northern Shelby, St. Clair, Talladega, Calhoun and Clay Counties, you are probably seeing a few flakes.

No travel problems are being reported or are expected across Central Alabama.

To the north and northeast it is a different story. Winter weather advisories are in effect for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in Northeast Alabama, with hazardous conditions being reported there. The NWS Huntsville is holding off on issuing a winter weather advisory for other counties.

Jackson County: 2 inches of snow at Dutton. This image is courtesy of @ToddHu02.

Ice is reported on the Hwy 35 bridge crossing the Tennessee River in Scottsboro. And highway 35 is snow covered going across the top of Sand Mountain. This image is coming out of Section on Hwy 35 (courtesy of @Sheri_Buckner).

Madison County: bridges are covered in snow and beginning to ice. Some rural secondary roads are slushy. Schools are now closed there.

Morgan County: Jason Simpson relayed a report of 2 inches of snow on the ground in Lacey’s Springs.

DeKalb County: Highway 75 snow covered at Sylvania. Schools are closed and roads are hazardous. Here is an image from Fyffe via @JTijsma.

Here is a pretty picture from Crossville in DeKalb County from Jason Holcombe.

The snow shower machine should continue through midnight tonight. Interestingly, south of a line from Union to Brent to Thorsby to Dadeville, people are wondering what in the heck we are talking about. South of that line, skies are perfectly clear!

Categories: Weather

Windy, Cold, Flurries

12 hours 53 min ago

AT DAYBREAK: Temperatures are below freezing generally from U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden) north… with mid 30s for the I-20 corridor (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston). Light, scattered snow flurries continue, but we have heard of no travel issues or impact so far.

THE DAY AHEAD: The NWS Huntsville is continuing a “winter weather advisory” for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in Northeast Alabama…

The overall idea for today has not changed. We will maintain the chance of snow flurries and snow showers, and where heavier convective snow showers develop, there could be some light accumulation. And, the best chance of this is over high terrain of Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,200 feet.

For most of you, any snow flakes today will be a no impact event, but we will need to keep an eye on possible slick spots over the northeast counties of the state through the morning.

The day will be cold and windy; most places from Birmingham north won’t get out of the 30s, and a strong west/northwest wind of 15-30 mph will keep the wind chill index at or below freezing.

TONIGHT: Winds will die down after midnight, and the sky becomes clear. Tomorrow morning will be the coldest morning of the week, with low 20s in most places, but colder communities could reach the upper teens.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine; the high tomorrow will be in the low 40s, but we rise into the 50s Thursday afternoon.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front will pass through the state Friday; it might squeeze out a few sprinkles during the morning hours, but the air will be very dry, and the chance of measurable rain for now looks very small. The GFS is printing a high of 53 for Birmingham Friday afternoon.

MORE COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND: A very cold, 1048 mb high will drop southward into the U.S., and we project cold and dry weather Saturday and Sunday with highs only in the 40s. Sunday morning will be very cold with a low close to 20 degrees… valleys and protected areas should see teens.

MONDAY: A wave will bring a chance of rain back to the state early next week. It is possible we could see a window for a little winter mischief early in the day, but the 00Z GFS and Euro runs are suggesting this will be a mostly rain event for our state, and we will lean that way in the forecast.

LONG RANGE: A flip to a positive AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) sure bring credibility to the idea of a warmer pattern for the southern U.S. in 10-15 days. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Appalachian School in Blount County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Much Colder; Snow Showers/Flurries

Mon, 02/08/2016 - 16:34

COLD, BLUSTERY PATTERN: A deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deliver a healthy dose of very cold Arctic air into Alabama tonight through Thursday morning. We won’t get out of the 30s tomorrow, and a strong west/northwest wind of 15-30 mph will keep the wind chill index at or below freezing most of the day. Looks like the coldest morning will come early Wednesday, with a low in the 19-23 degree range for most communities across North/Central Alabama.

SNOW: While the cold is the big headline, we all know people in Alabama are more curious about the snow potential. We expect occasional snow flurries and snow showers in the cold air advection pattern tonight into tomorrow morning; snow flurries have already been reported at Florence this afternoon, up in the northwest corner of the state.

TIMING: Snow showers and snow flurries are possible across North and Central Alabama mainly from 9:00 tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow.

ADVISORIES: The National Weather Service in Huntsville has issued a winter weather advisory for Jackson and DeKalb Counties in far Northeast Alabama for late tonight and tomorrow…

ACCUMULATION/IMPACT: As we mentioned here this morning, the best chance of accumulation (1/2 to 1 inch) will come across the high terrain (above 1,200 feet) of Northeast Alabama. Most places across North/Central Alabama will see little if any accumulation and little impact. But, understand we will be dealing with convective snow showers, and like rain showers on a summer afternoon, they tend to be scattered and random. So, there could be a few spots where heavy snow showers form to make the ground white, and a few isolated slick spots could form on roads after 4:00 a.m. We project temperatures to be below freezing from 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m.

I would advise getting up extra early tomorrow, turn on ABC 33/40, and get an update on road conditions. For most of you, there won’t be any impact, but a few isolated problems are possible, as stated above.

LATER THIS WEEK: We begin to warm up Thursday afternoon as we rise into the low 50s. Then, clouds increase Thursday night ahead of a cold front, and a few sprinkles are possible Friday morning as the front passes through. Moisture will be very limited, and rain, if any, should be light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: More cold air settles into the state Saturday and Sunday thanks to a big 1048 mb high passing north of here. Highs drop into the low to mid 40s, and we will be close to 20 degrees early Sunday morning (colder pockets should visit the teens). The air will be dry, and the sky should be sunny both days.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Munford Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Much Colder; Snow Showers Ahead

Mon, 02/08/2016 - 07:16

THIS MORNING: It is a quiet morning across Alabama with temperatures across north and central counties mostly in the upper 30s and low 40s. A few patches of light rain, or rain showers, are possible later this morning with temperatures rising into the 46-50 degree range by early afternoon.

MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN: Temperatures should begin to fall across far North Alabama later today with a gusty north wind, and that Arctic shot will drop southward tonight and tomorrow, setting up a very cold Tuesday. A good chance we won’t get out of the 30s, and a north wind of 12-25 mph will keep the wind chill index around freezing most of the day.

THE “S” WORD: Anytime the word “snow” is used in an Alabama forecast, it tends to set off a firestorm complete with wild rumors, bad information, and fear of a catastrophe like January 28, 2014. Let’s go beyond the little picture of a snow flake on your phone app and lay it out.

TIMING: A few snow flurries or snow showers could begin across the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama this afternoon, but for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, the best chance of seeing a few flakes will come tonight and tomorrow morning.

PLACEMENT: The more numerous snow showers will come over Northeast Alabama, but one could pop up just about anywhere over the northern half of the state tonight. And, these convective snow showers are similar to rain showers on a summer afternoon; they tend to be rather random and scattered. No way to resolve exactly where they form, or where streaks of more concentrated snow showers will develop. We will just have to watch radar trends.

IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: For most of you, this will be a no impact, no accumulation event. However, where a heavier snow shower develops, there could be some light accumulation on grassy areas (generally 1/4″ or less). A few spots across high terrain of Northeast Alabama (generally above 1,500 feet) could see 1/2 to 1 inch, but we stress this is for mountain top locations.

We will drop into the sub-freezing range tomorrow morning from about 3:00 a.m. until 9:00 a.m., and where heavier snow showers form it is possible a few icy patches could develop. And, like we mentioned above, there is no way we can tell you where the heavier showers will crank up. I would get up a little early tomorrow and flip on ABC 33/40, or check the blog, for an update on possible road problems.

But, I stress, for most of you this will be a no impact, no accumulation event.

ADVISORIES: There are no winter weather advisories of any kind in Alabama… but to the northeast there are “winter weather advisories” for East Tennessee and far North Georgia…

MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to mostly 30s we will mostly have tonight and tomorrow.

REST OF THE WEEK: Wednesday and Thursday morning will be very cold, with lows not far from 20 degrees, and teens for colder locations. The high Wednesday afternoon will be close to 40, and we have a decent chance of rising into the 50s Thursday.

We might consider a risk of rain showers Friday with another cold front passing through the state, but moisture will be very limited, and any precipitation should be very light.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A big 1048 mb high drops south into the Upper Midwest, and more cold air pushes into Alabama. Saturday and Sunday will be cold and dry; highs 40-44 degrees both days. Sunday morning will be very cold; the 00Z GFS is printing a low of 19 degrees for Birmingham.

LONG RANGE: Global models hint the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) could go positive in 10 days or so, giving us an opportunity for warmer weather toward the end of February. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at Munford Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Winter Weather Advisories to our Northeast

Sun, 02/07/2016 - 23:59

Snow accumulation amounts and winter weather advisories.

Winter weather advisories (WWA) have been issued for Monday through much of Tuesday for a wide area to the northeast of Alabama. Here’s a rundown of some expected conditions.

EASTERN TENNESSEE
Places like Crossville and Cookville could see 1-2 inches of snow. Morristown and the Tri-Cities could see 1-3 inches. Knoxville and Cleveland are oficially NOT in the WWA at this time, but Knoxville could pick up 1.5 inches of snow as well. Travel into eastern Tennessee may become difficult Monday night into Tuesday.

NORTH GEORGIA
The mountains of North Georgia could see 1-2 inches of snow in places like Chatsworth, Ellijay and Dahlonega. Black ice will be a problem.

SMOKY MOUNTAINS
5 inches of snow is possible in Gatlinburg, with higher amounts at higher elevations.

WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Only an inch of snow is expected in Asheville. Boone should get 2-3 inches.

VIRGINIA/WEST VIRGINIA
Some of the highest amounts will be in the mountains of west Virginia, where as much as ten inches

HERE IN ALABAMA
Rain showers will transition to snow showers late Monday afternoon and a few snow showers will continue through the overnight hours with even a few snow flurries into Tuesday morning. The best chance for any accumulations will be over the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama, from Huntsville to the east. But any areas that see persistent snow showers could get a dusting.

NATIONALLY
The deep low east of Wilmington NC tonight has intensified to 980 millibars. It will bring high winds of 60 mph and heavy snows to Cape Cod on Monday. 18 inches or more of snow may fall.

Categories: Weather

Super Sunday

Sun, 02/07/2016 - 16:34

Super Bowl L doesn’t quite have the ring to it that Super Bowl XLIX did, so the NFL ceased using Roman numerals to describe their Championship game.

The weather in San Jose for this evening’s game will be perfect, with kickoff temperatures around 70F. Skies around the Bay Area are crystal clear and will remain that was for the game. Winds will be out of the northwest at about 7-8 mph. That could be a bit of a factor as the stadium is oriented northwest-southwest with some breaks in its bowl behind the goal lines.

Here in Alabama, clear skies prevail this afternoon, except for some high clouds skirting our northern border. Clouds have thickened to the northwest however, and cover a good bit of Arkansas, spilling into western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. Temperatures are in the 50s across the state from one end to the other, although the mercury was perilously close to 60F at Evergreen last hour.

Our winds are light out of the north, in response to an explosively deepening low pressure center east of Charleston this afternoon.

To the west, we see a cold front approaching Little Rock. That front will push through Central Alabama tomorrow. We start off in the upper 30s in the morning and rise in to the lower or middle 40s before colder air starts to spill in, driving the mercury back into the 30s by dark. There could be a few light rain showers with the front as it moves through during the morning hours. As colder air moves in, there could be a few snow showers late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, with some snow flurries on Tuesday. We shouldn’t see any accumulations around here. Places from Huntsville eastward into Northeast Alabama could wee a whitened ground tomorrow night into Tuesday, with the attendant icy patches.

The main story will be the cold: We won’t get out of the 30s on Tuesday and many places will stay there on Wednesday. 40s will still be the rule Thursday and Friday. Lows Monday night will be in the middle and upper 20s with wind chills in the teens. Lows will be in the middle 20s Wednesday and Thursday.

The rest of the week will be mainly dry, although there could be a few showers (rain or snow) late Thursday night into early Friday. Doesn’t look like a problem at this time. But as we always say in the Weather Office, we will be watching.

Categories: Weather

Super Today – Sharply Colder into Tuesday

Sun, 02/07/2016 - 09:00

The second Sunday of February will be a super day for Central Alabama as we continue to enjoy the warmup before another Arctic chill down. Alabamians are waking up to a clear sky with nary a cloud to be found. But the morning is also starting with another chill as morning lows bottom out in the 20s. But with plenty of sunshine today we should see the highs across Central Alabama warm nicely well into the 50s – upper 50s for most locations. But then changes begin to take place.

But before we discuss those, it’s interesting to note what is happening just off the southeast coast of the US. A strong closed low moved along the Gulf Coast last night and will be emerging into the Southwest Atlantic today generating a surface low in the vicinity of Florida. Today that surface low will “bomb out” as we say as it undergoes deep intensification. To “bomb out” a surface low must drop 24 millibars in 24 hours, and it sure looks like this one will do that. Because of this deep intensification, hurricane force wind is expected to occur in the offshore waters with storm or hurricane force wind warnings from offshore of Florida all the way to New England for the next 36 to 48 hours.

Fortunately, that system will not have an impact on our weather, but right behind that closed low comes a deepening trough that will open the flood gates for cold air to surge southward into the Southeast US. Later tonight and into Monday, clouds will increase so that Monday will become a mostly cloudy day. Temperatures will be a bit tricky to forecast since highs and lows will not be occurring at their typical times. Morning temperatures will probably bottom out near 40, rise a little through late morning, and then begin to fall with the arrival of the cold air. So the high for the day will likely come in late morning, or perhaps even between midnight and 1 am. Our low for the day is likely to occur between 11 pm and midnight Monday evening. Temperatures during the afternoon are likely to be falling.

On top of that, it looks like this system will be bringing some moisture with it. Precipitation is likely to begin as light rain from late morning through the middle of the afternoon before enough cold air arrives to bring about a mixture of light rain and snow flurries. The mixed precipitation should change over to all flurries Monday evening and stay flurries through midday on Tuesday. With the warm ground we’re not likely to see anything stick. The exception to that comes in the northeast part of Alabama where we might see a little snow sticking at higher elevations.

Tuesday is also likely to be a raw day with a northwest wind at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts and highs from the Interstate 20 corridor northward only in the 30s. Areas south of the Interstate 20 corridor could see highs in the lower 40s.

Wednesday follows along with Tuesday for being a cold day but we’ll have the benefit of some sunshine. Lows will be well down in the 20s with highs in the 40 to 43 range. It may feel a little warmer thanks to a reduced wind.

The overall upper air pattern begins to transition out of the deep trough over the eastern US on Thursday and Friday. We should see some gradual warming with temperatures rising into the lower 50s, still chilly when compared to 30-year averages for early February. Saturday and Sunday will see ridging aloft so that weekend highs should be well into the 50s.

Yesterday the outlook for voodoo country seemed a little quiet, but the quiet is definitely gone on the latest GFS run today. A strong upper trough should bring wet weather to Alabama on Monday, February 15th. Another fairly high amplitude trough develops by the 18th which will bring another round of chilly weather to the East, but not as chilly as the one starting this week. And then a new trough/closed low comes out of the northern Rockies around the 20th. So the parade of storm systems should continue into the latter part of February.

I had a wonderful time at the “Wild About Chocolate” fundraiser for the Alabama Wildlife Center last night at the Harbert Center. It was a privilege to meet the newest member of their team, an unnamed red-tailed hawk. The injuries he sustained in a collision with a vehicle prohibit him from being able to return to the wild, so he will become part of their educational team. And he was absolutely gorgeous. I hope the auctions, both silent and not silent, were able to raise enough money to keep the Wildlife Center funded to continue their great work.

James Spann is expected back on Monday with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy the super weather on this Super Bowl Sunday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Notes On The Cold/Snow

Sun, 02/07/2016 - 07:47

As discussed here for days, the northern half of Alabama will experience a shot of very cold Arctic air tomorrow through Wednesday. And, during the cold air advection process, there is a pretty good chance of snow flurries or snow showers late tomorrow, tomorrow night, into Tuesday.

Here are some important notes about this…

*TIMING: Some scattered light rain/sprinkles will begin during the day tomorrow across North Alabama, and as the air aloft becomes much colder, this precipitation will change over to snow flurries or snow showers tomorrow afternoon. This will continue tomorrow night and Tuesday.

*IMPACT/ACCUMULATION: Basically no impact or accumulation is expected for several reasons. Shallow moisture and weak lift means the snow should be very light in most cases, and surface temperatures will be above freezing a decent part of the time. We will just need to keep an eye on high terrain across Northeast Alabama, especially above 1,500 feet, where the ground could turn white in a few places, and a few slick spots could develop where heavier snow showers fall.

Up in the far northern part of the state, some light accumulation is possible mainly from Huntsville east (1/2 inch or less).

TEMPERATURES: The cold air is the big story. Temperatures will begin to fall tomorrow afternoon (we won’t get past the mid 40s during the day), and on Tuesday we start the day in the upper 20s, and the high will be only in the 36-39 degree range with a chilly northwest wind. It is beginning to look like our coldest morning will come early Thursday, when teens will be possible across colder valleys.

We have had so many tragic fires this winter; please be careful with space heaters or anything else that might spark a house fire.

MEMORIES: Anyone remember the song “The Way We Were” from 1974?

“Memories
May be beautiful and yet
What’s too painful to remember
We simply choose to forget”

The truth is people in Alabama DO remember the painful snow event on January 28, 2014, and the horrible impact forecast from the weather community. Understand we have a limited skill set in dealing with winter weather, and any forecast can go wrong, like any football coach can lose a game. But the circumstances in this event won’t be anything like 1.28.14; on that day we had 2 inches of snow with temperatures at 20 degrees. The ice accretion progress on roads is radically different at 20 degrees (as we learned the hard way), compared to 30-35 degrees we will mostly have tomorrow night through Tuesday.

So, no significant accumulation or impact is expected, and the forecast confidence is pretty high. But, we will watch developments closely and keep you posted.

Categories: Weather

Sun-filled Saturday

Sat, 02/06/2016 - 14:54

We have seen a few mid and upper-level clouds move across the Alabama sky today, but overall it is a very nice first Saturday of February.

Temperatures are cool, but not all that bad with most locations into the lower 50s, while a few of those cooler spots remain in the upper 40s.

Tonight, expect mainly clear conditions with another cold start as low will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Great looking weather will continue for our Sunday. After the chilly start, which I highly recommend grabbing the jackets when heading out the door, our afternoon highs, thanks to an abundance of sunshine, will warm into the mid to upper 50s, and will be a few degrees warmer than today.

Categories: Weather

More Cold Air Ahead

Sat, 02/06/2016 - 08:31

It’s another chilly morning across North and Central Alabama. Temperatures were mainly in the upper 20s just before sunrise. Vic Bell, our Skywatcher at Black Creek in Etowah County, observed a low of 23 with heavy frost this morning. But after the chilly start, we should see temperatures rise into the lower 50s across Central Alabama along with the presence of some clouds advancing over the Southeast US from the system just to our west.

As the upper air pattern shows, that system will dive into and across the Gulf of Mexico today and Sunday generating a surface low over the Florida Peninsula that will intensify rapidly as it moves into the Southwest Atlantic. The intensification of the surface low on Sunday should be pretty spectacular, something meteorologists refer to as “bombogenesis.” That not so technical terms refers to the explosive intensification of a surface low which deepens by at least 24 millibars in 24 hours. This one sure looks like it will qualify. Fortunately for us and much of the East Coast of the US, it will be offshore enough to keep the impacts to the marine areas. Storm warnings were posted Sunday into Monday for the offshore waters from Southeast Georgia to New England.

The upper air pattern over the eastern half of the country takes on a decidedly colder look as a high amplitude trough develops on Monday. This together with the departing surface low in the Atlantic will generate clouds in addition to plunging us into another short term ice age. This brings the potential for snow flurries or perhaps a little light snow especially to the higher elevations of Northeast Alabama, northern Georgia, and the southern Appalachians from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. It’s worth mentioning that these patterns don’t typically result in significant snow events for us. And it’s interesting to note that the GFS is more bullish on the potential for snow than the Euro is.

Monday could well be one of those days in which the temperature peaks during the morning and falls during the day. Tuesday is shaping up to be a raw day with our highs struggling to get to 40 degrees after morning lows in the 20s.

Wednesday through the end of the week sees a gradual warming trend with high temperatures pushing into the lower 60s by Friday and Saturday. This occurs as the upper air pattern becomes less amplified as the deep trough moves off into the Atlantic and surface high pressure settles into the area from the north. With much of the upper air action a good deal further north by Saturday, we could see a weak cold front approach the Southeast US on Saturday. The GFS wrings a little moisture out of this front, but the air may be too dry for more than sprinkles. Plus this is verging on voodoo country, so we’ll keep the forecast dry for now. This front will not have much upper air support, so while the air will be cooler it is not expected to be as cold as the Monday/Tuesday system.

Voodoo country is showing some signs of slightly slower action. There is a fairly strong short wave trough coming through the Central Plains on Monday that could bring us some wet weather. But the overall pattern remains nearly zonal with an absence of short waves or significant troughs until we get to the very end of the period around February 21st. By then we have a complicated pattern with a closed low over the Southwest US with a fairly deep trough over the eastern third of the country.

Thanks for checking out the weather on the blog. I’m really excited about going to the Alabama Wildlife Center’s fund raiser tonight titled “Wild about Chocolate.” It’s nice to mix a great cause with some decadent chocolate! Plus Brenda Ladun of ABC 3340 will be the evenings emcee. I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. Enjoy the day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Sharply Colder Early Next Week

Fri, 02/05/2016 - 16:18

SUNNY WINTER DAY: Temperatures are generally in the low 50s across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a bright sunny sky. Tonight will be clear and cold; most communities will reach the upper 20s early tomorrow.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Scattered clouds move into the state tomorrow ahead of an upper trough, but the air is very dry and we won’t have any rain. The high will be in the low 50s tomorrow afternoon. Then, on Sunday, we rise into the mid to upper 50s with a good supply of sunshine.

NEXT WEEK: A shot of very cold, Arctic air begins to arrive Monday; the high will drop into the 40s, and clouds will thicken during the day. Some scattered light rain is possible Monday afternoon, and as the cold air deepens, we will continue to mention a chance of snow flurries Monday night and Tuesday.

We are still expecting no accumulation and no impact from the snow flurries; if there is a chance of the ground/grass getting white, it will be across high terrain of northeast of Alabama, especially above 1,800 feet. Tuesday will be a very cold day with temperatures holding in the 30s… a brisk north wind will keep the wind chill index below freezing a decent part of the day.

The good news is that the cold air blast won’t last long; new model data continues to suggest a warming trend will begin Wednesday with a high around 50 degrees along with a sunny sky. Mid 50s are likely Thursday and Friday, and those two days should be rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with students at Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary, and Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Cool Days, Cold Nights

Fri, 02/05/2016 - 06:51

SUB-FREEZING MORNING: Most places are in the 27-32 degree range as this day begins; expect a high close to 50 degrees this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We expect a slow warming trend; we reach the low 50s tomorrow, followed by the mid to upper 50s Sunday. The air stays dry, and both days will stay mostly sunny. We do note tomorrow morning will be cold with a low down in the 20s.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Much colder air will begin to slip into Alabama Monday; clouds will increase during the day, and some light rain, or a few sprinkles, will be possible by afternoon. We won’t get out of the 40s Monday.

Then, the cold air deepens Monday night and Tuesday, and snow flurries are possible in the colder air. Precipitation will be very light, and no impact is expected. You might see a few spots where the ground/grass turns white across high terrain of Northeast Alabama, mainly above 1,800 feet.

Tuesday will be the coldest day with a high in the 37 to 40 degree range along with a very chill north wind.

The good news is that global models have backed off on the depth and longevity of the cold air; a warming trend will begins Wednesday, and some spots could reach 50 degrees by afternoon. Just a few days ago we were getting signals that we could stay below freezing much of the day Wednesday. The warm-up will continue through the rest of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have weather programs today at Trace Crossings Elementary in Hoover, and Vestavia Hills Cahaba Heights Elementary. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Dry Through The Weekend; Colder Next Week

Thu, 02/04/2016 - 16:09

BLUE SKY: It is a sunny, cool winter day across the great state of Alabama. Temperatures are pretty close to 50 degrees around here with a chilly north breeze. Tonight will be clear and cold, and most communities will drop into the upper 20s early tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights as dry air stays in place. The coldest morning will come early Saturday; many places will start the day in the mid 20s. Look for a high close to 50 degrees tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday, and upper 50s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Some of the coldest air so far this season will blow into Alabama. The first phase of the cool down begins Monday; clouds will increase, and some light rain is possible during the afternoon. Snow flakes could mix in with the light rain Monday night as the cold air deepens; we do not expect any impact if snow flakes are involved.

Tuesday could very well be the coldest day; we hold in the 30s all day with a brisk north wind, and snow flurries/showers are possible. Again, the chance of any accumulation or impact looks very small for now if we do see a few flakes.

Wednesday looks mostly sunny but cold, and again we will have a hard time getting out of the 30s. Morning lows early Tuesday and Wednesday will be well down in the 20s, but the latest model runs have backed off on the idea of possibly getting into the teens.

A warming trend begins later in the week… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

Cool, Dry Weather Through The Weekend

Thu, 02/04/2016 - 06:46

NICE AND QUIET: A chilly, continental airmass has settled into Alabama this morning with temperatures generally in the 30s; we will forecast a partly sunny sky today with a high around 50; areas north of Birmingham probably won’t get out of the 40s.

A freeze is likely late tonight; upper 20s are expected by daybreak tomorrow.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Not much change; mostly sunny cool days, clear cold nights. Low 50s tomorrow, followed by mid 50s Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Mornings will stay cold with lows in the 28-32 degree range for most communities.

ARCTIC SHOT NEXT WEEK: Clouds will increase across Alabama Monday, and a touch of light rain is possible thanks to a clipper system that will bring the first of several cold air shots into the Deep South. The Monday afternoon will drop into the mid 40s with a chilly north wind.

Then, on Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s as the cold air deepens. The sky will feature more clouds than sun, and we will forecast a chance of snow flurries or showers during the day and into Tuesday night. Situations like this rarely bring enough snow for any impact, and the Euro (ECMWF) suggests the chance of really signifiant accumulation for North/Central Alabama is low.

The coldest day will come on Wednesday. Many North Alabama communities could remain below freezing all day, and by daybreak Thursday morning teens are a good possibility. A warming trend then will begin Thursday afternoon… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Sipsey Valley Middle School in Tuscaloosa County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Dry, Cool Weather Ahead

Wed, 02/03/2016 - 16:34

DRY THROUGH SUNDAY: As advertised, the sky is clearing across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon…

Temperatures are generally in the 60s, but we turn colder tonight; we drop into the the mid 30s by daybreak tomorrow.

We project mostly sunny cool days and clear cold nights tomorrow through Sunday. Highs will be mostly in the low to mid 50s, with lows in the upper 20s. Nice, quiet mid-winter weather.

ARCTIC BLAST NEXT WEEK: It continues to look like the coldest air so far this winter season will blow into Alabama. Temperatures begin to fall Monday, and as the cold air arrives, we might even see a few snow flurries late Monday or Monday night over the northern third of the state.

By Tuesday, we won’t get out of the 30s with a sharp north breeze, and Wednesday looks like the coldest day with a high only in the 30-35 degree range for North/Central Alabama. By Thursday morning many communities will likely drop into the teens.

Then, late in the week, a slow warming trend begins. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TORNADO DAMAGE SURVEYS: NWS Birmingham has now confirmed 4 tornadoes so far for Central Alabama…2 in Pickens (Aliceville & Ethelsville), 1 in Fayette (Ashcraft Corner/Belk), 1 in Lamar (Beaverton). The Pickens County tornado for now is rated EF-2.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Clearing Later Today; Very Cold Next Week

Wed, 02/03/2016 - 07:05

RADAR CHECK: Rain has ended across Northwest Alabama early this morning; the heavier storms are now south and east of Montgomery.

A flash flood watch continues for Southeast Alabama, where an additional 1-2 inches of rain is likely. But, for North/Central Alabama, we will forecast a clearing sky later today as drier air works in from the north. We project a high in the low to mid 60s today.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These two days will be dry with a good supply of sunshine, but sharply cooler. The high will be in the low 50s, and we drop into the upper 20s by daybreak Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Saturday will stay cool and dry with a high in the 50s; the latest global global model runs (both the American and European) now keep a low in the Gulf of Mexico far enough away not to impact Alabama Sunday… so we have removed any risk of rain Sunday, and forecast a mostly sunny day with a high in the 50s. Bottom line is that cool, dry weather continues over the weekend.

ARCTIC AIR BLAST NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will deal with perhaps the coldest air so far this winter next week. It begins to arrive Tuesday; the day will be mostly cloudy with a sharp north breeze, and a few snow flurries or showers are possible over the northern third of the state. We will have a hard time getting out of the 30s.

Wednesday will be the coldest day; a decent chance North/Central Alabama communities stay below freezing all day, and a north wind will keep wind chill values in the teens despite a partly sunny sky.

And, by Thursday morning, many spots across North Alabama will drop into the teens. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Watch County Notification

Wed, 02/03/2016 - 05:05

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.
WWUS64 KBMX 031004
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
404 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

ALC001-021-027-037-047-051-085-101-121-123-031115-
/O.EXP.KBMX.TO.A.0013.000000T0000Z-160203T1000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 13 TO
EXPIRE FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 10 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

AUTAUGA CHILTON COOSA
DALLAS ELMORE LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY TALLADEGA

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

CLAY TALLAPOOSA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDER CITY…ASHLAND…
CLANTON…FORT DEPOSIT…LINEVILLE…LOWNDESBORO…MILLBROOK…
MONTGOMERY…PRATTVILLE…ROCKFORD…SELMA…SYLACAUGA…
TALLADEGA AND WETUMPKA.

$$

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Warning: Perry/Dallas

Wed, 02/03/2016 - 03:56

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 AM CST WEDNESDAY

* AT 253 AM CST…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING COULD ALREADY BE OCCURRING OR WILL
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MARION…ORRVILLE…BOGUE CHITTO…MARION JUNCTION…VAIDEN…
CENTRAL MILLS…POTTER STATION…DANNELLY RESERVOIR…VAIDEN FIELD
AIRPORT…SPROTT…SAFFORD…RADFORD…HAMBURG…OAKMULGEE…
SUTTLE…CRUMPTONIA…HAZEN…JUDSON COLLEGE AND WHITES BLUFF.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA.

Categories: Weather