ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 5 hours 20 min ago

Clouds but Cooler

Sat, 09/13/2014 - 07:45

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The weak cold front that has been plaguing the Southeast US for the last couple of days continued to sag slowly southward and was situated across southern Alabama this morning. This has allowed slightly cooler and drier air to move into the northern half of Alabama, so I expect to see mostly cloudy skies today with scattered showers possible mainly across South Alabama. The front continued to have little to push it further southward due to an elongated ridge in the upper atmosphere.

If you are headed to Tuscaloosa where Alabama will host Southern Miss this evening with a 5:00 pm kickoff, it looks like the sky will be occasionally cloudy, but the weather should be dry with a kickoff temperature near 80 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half. UAB hosts Alabama A&M at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30 pm; the sky will be generally cloudy with only a small risk for a shower. The temperature will be around 80 degrees at kickoff, falling into the middle 70s by the final whistle.

The forecast for the beaches: about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Sunday with scattered thunderstorms; highs will be in the upper 80s. Sea water temperatures are also in the mid 80s.

Tropics are active as expected during the the heart of tropical storm season. Edouard is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday but it is expected to remain well out in the Atlantic. Two areas of disturbed weather were noted in the Gulf of Mexico. The one near the Mexican coast is not expected to develop much as it moves westward into Mexico. The other one just off the Southwest coast of Florida is forecast to track westward and the upper level wind pattern does not appear to be very favorable for any development in the near term. Because this is in the Gulf of Mexico, it will bear watching and a Hurricane Hunter aircraft may investigate the area today.

The ridge remains in place Sunday so isolated showers remain a possibility though we note that precipitable water values continue to drop slightly. The main moisture remains across South Alabama where the better chances for showers should be. While the westerlies remain well to our north, the GFS continued to show general troughiness over the eastern US for the middle and latter portion of the week. This is likely to keep us dry for the latter part of the week. I did note that the ECMWF was considerably drier with its solution than was the GFS.

Looking out into voodoo, the GFS continues to keep the primary trough across the eastern third of the US, but the trough is forecast to weaken as upper ridging again develops over the Southeast US around the end of September. This could mean some warmer weather for us at the end of the month.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Sunday morning. Enjoy the cooler weather and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Warning Bibb/Jefferson/Shelby/Tuscaloosa til 7:30PM

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 16:43

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN…
EAST CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTH CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL SHELBY COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

*TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!!

* AT 441 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES NEARLY 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY AND STORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
ALABASTER…BESSEMER…HELENA…ABERNANT…ALABAMA ADVENTURE…
BLUFF PARK…BROOKWOOD…DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS…HOOVER
METROPOLITAN STADIUM…LAKE VIEW…LAKE WILDWOOD…MAYLENE…NORTH
JOHNS…ROSS BRIDGE…TANNEHILL IRONWORKS STATE PARK…VANCE AND
WOODSTOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Warning Jefferson/St. Clair until 7PM

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:55

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!!

* AT 355 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN
AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
IRONDALE…MOODY…TRUSSVILLE…ALTON…ARGO…BALD ROCK…
BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT…BRANCHVILLE…CENTER POINT…CHALKVILLE…
CLAY…MARGARET AND TARRANT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for NE Jefferson/ St. Clair Counties

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:42

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 337 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
TRUSSVILLE…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MOODY…CLAY…ARGO…BALD ROCK…MARGARET…BRANCHVILLE AND CHULA
VISTA.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 459 EXIT NUMBERS 31 THROUGH 33…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 144 THROUGH 153…
INTERSTATE 59 EXIT NUMBERS 137 THROUGH 148…

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Sagging South

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 15:39

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM: Showers and strong storms with lots of lighting are in progress near the cold front over North Alabama this afternoon… moving east.

The band of showers and storms will sag southward in coming hours, and most of the showers will south of I-20 by 6:00 p.m.

There is a big temperature contrast across Alabama due to the cold front; at mid-afternoon Tuscaloos was in the low 90s, but north of the front it was only 77 at Haleyville, and 76 at Russellville.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The front will become nearly stationary over the middle of Alabama tomorrow. The day should be mostly cloudy statewide, but the best chance of showers will come over the southern half of the state, south of the front. It will be noticeably cooler over North Alabama; many places there won’t get out of the 70s, but highs stay in the 80s with muggy conditions over the southern counties of the state.

Sunday looks mostly rain-free for the northern two-thirds of the state with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tonight, mainly from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston south. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be close to 80 at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30-40 percent range along and south of I-20… few showers are expected to the north.

Alabama will host Southern Miss tomorrow evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; at this point it looks like the sky will be occasionally cloudy, but the weather should be dry with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M tomorrow at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be generally cloudy…. The temperature will be around 82 degrees at kickoff, falling into the mid 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The front dissipates, and a few scattered showers are possible Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Looks like the highest coverage of showers and storms next week will come on Wednesday thanks to a short wave, and possible moisture from a tropical wave in the Gulf of Mexico. Then, we trend drier Thursday and Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave is near Fort Myers, Florida this afternoon, and will move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and tomorrow. Winds aloft are not favorable for development in the short term, and it remains to be seen if anything can get it’s act together in that region. Still, some moisture from this wave could impact the Gulf Coast states next week.

Tropical Storm Edouard in the Central Atlantic will recurve into the open Atlantic and is no threat to land, but it should be a hurricane by Monday.

And, a new tropical wave is in the far East Atlantic south of the Cape Verde Islands… this will be moving west/northwest in coming days and is far form land.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine along the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores through Sunday with scattered thunderstorms; highs will be in the mid to upper 80s… sea water temperatures are also in the mid to upper 80s. The weather next week will be determined by the tropical wave in the Gulf… confidence in any specific solution at this point is low.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Instagram

My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Into North Alabama

Fri, 09/12/2014 - 06:15

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WET AT TIMES TODAY: We begin the day with a number of showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of Alabama as the long awaited cold front has dipped into the state from the north. The front has pretty much “run out of gas”, so it will only creep slowly southward today and tonight.

We will maintain the chance of occasional showers and thunderstorms through tonight, but after 6:00 or 7:00 this evening, the best chance of showers will be generally along and south of I-20 as a drier airmass sags into North Alabama.

TOMORROW: Somewhat of a challenging forecast with a front draped over Central Alabama, but confidence in the general idea is good. We start the day with clouds during the morning hours, and there could be a little light rain or drizzle. Then, the afternoon should be rain-free. But, clouds could very well linger much of the day. You might see a little sun tomorrow afternoon, but probably not much. It will be cooler… a number of North Alabama towns won’t get out of the 70s due to the cloud cover and cool air advection. Showers will remain possible over the southern half of Alabama tomorrow afternoon, south of the front.

SUNDAY: The day looks mostly dry for North and Central Alabama with a mix of sun and clouds. Again, showers remain possible over South Alabama, generally south of a line from Wedowee to Clanton to Thomasville. The high Sunday should be in the low to mid 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tonight, mainly from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Anniston south. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the low 80s at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30-40 percent range along and south of I-20… few showers are expected to the north.

Alabama will host Southern Miss tomorrow evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; at this point it looks like the sky will be occasionally cloudy, but the weather should be dry with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M tomorrow at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be generally cloudy with only a slight risk of a shower. The temperature will be around 85 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The front dissipates, and moist air returns to North Alabama, so there will be some risk of showers on a daily basis. The 00Z GFS hints the best coverage of showers or storms could be on Wednesday, with a trend toward drier conditions Thursday and Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Edouard over the Central Atlantic could become a hurricane next week, but it will recurve over the open Atlantic far from land.

A new disturbance has emerged off the coast of Africa, and is south of the Cape Verde Islands; no immediate development is expected there.

The wave of interest for us is centered near West Palm Beach, Florida this morning. It is very disorganized, and is drifting to the west. Models pretty much have two scenarios for this; one is a southern track that will bring the system toward the southern Texas coast, and the other possibility is a higher latitude one that shows recurvature into the Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast U.S. next week. The good news is that upper air winds will remain generally unfavorable for this to develop into a tropical storm, but even disorganized tropical waves can bring some very significant rain. Also remember the Gulf of Mexico has been untouched this hurricane season and there is plenty of latent heat energy. We will keep a close eye on it; but for now odds are relatively high it won’t impact the northern or central part of Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend with the daily threat of scattered storms; highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, and the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is a warm 87 degrees. The weather on the coast next week will be determined by the tropical wave discussed above.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Into Tennessee

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 15:45

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Scattered showers and storms have formed this afternoon across Alabama, most numerous over the Tennessee Valley, where parts of Limestone and Madison Counties are under a flash flood warning. We will maintain the chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight with the surface cold front just to the north over Tennessee…

TOMORROW: The front only creeps southward, and we stay in warm, moist air. We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow, and maintain the threat of scattered showers and thunderstorms through tomorrow night. The rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should be out at times, but a passing shower or storm is possible at just about any hour. The sky will be occasionally cloudy with a high in the mid 80s.

SATURDAY: As discussed here in recent days, a very tricky forecast due to the fact that the front will stall out somewhere over North or Central Alabama. We will forecast clouds over much of Alabama Saturday morning with the chance of a little light rain or drizzle, then the sky becomes partly sunny by afternoon as drier air works into the state. Any showers Saturday afternoon, most likely, will be south of I-20, or south of a line from Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston. Saturday’s high should be in the low to mid 80s, but some of the communities up in the Tennessee Valley could hold in the cool 70s all day with a nice north breeze.

SUNDAY: The front pretty much stays in the same place, so most North Alabama communities, along and north of I-20, will be dry, with the risk of showers continuing over Central and South Alabama, mainly south of I-20. Sunday’s high will be in the mid 80s with a partly sunny sky.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tonight and tomorrow night. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30 percent range.

Alabama will host Southern Miss Saturday evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; at this point it looks like the sky will be mostly fair with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be partly sunny with only a slight risk of a shower. The temperature will be around 85 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The surface front will dissipate Sunday night, so moist air will move northward, and it looks like we will need to mention some risk of showers just about on a daily basis at least for the first half of the week. Highs will be generally in the low to mid 80s, about average for mid-September in Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression six has formed in the Central Atlantic; it should become Tropical Storm Edouard during the next 24 hours as it moves northwest. This will recurve into the open Atlantic well before getting close to the U.S. mainland.

Another tropical wave is just east of the Florida Peninsula… that will drift west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Upper air winds are harsh, and for now the chance of development looks low, and we don’t expect this to be a player in Alabama weather.

We will keep an eye on it.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend on the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with the usual risk of scattered thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid 80s, and the sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

TD #6 Forms

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 10:19

Tropical depression number six has formed in the eastern Atlantic this morning.

It should recurve harmless over the open Atlantic and poses no threat to land.

It should become Tropical Storm Edouard later today.

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Getting Closer

Thu, 09/11/2014 - 06:21

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH TOMORROW: We still have a rather tricky forecast for the weekend as a slow moving cold front will creep into Alabama late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Where it stops will determine the weather where you live, and that is a tough call. Let’s break it down one day at a time…

TODAY/TONIGHT: I think most of the day will be dry for North/Central Alabama, although a few isolated showers could pop up this afternoon. A band of showers and storms should creep into the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama late in the day, and those will move slowly southward tonight. The NWS in Memphis has issued a flash flood watch for their county warning area, but we don’t expect any flooding issues, or severe weather problems here as the dynamic support will be lifting out. High resolution model data hints the band of showers and storms will reach Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden in the 9 to 11 p.m. time frame if it holds together. The high today should be in the upper 80s for most communities.

TOMORROW: The front will be close to the Alabama/Tennessee border, so we stay in moist air. The day should feature a mix of sun and clouds, and we will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms. No “all day” rain, but a shower or storm is possible at just about any hour of the day, or tomorrow night. The high will be in the mid 80s, about average for mid-September in Alabama.

SATURDAY: This is the difficult part of the forecast. The front will drift down toward I-59 and stop, meaning a fairly sharp contrast between the dry air north of the front, and the humid air to the south. The day should begin with a mostly cloudy sky along with the chance of a little drizzle in spots… then the sun breaks out by mid to late morning. During the afternoon and evening hours, using data from the GFS and the high resolution NAM model, it looks like the best chance of showers will come south of I-59. Places like Anniston, Talladega, Sylacauga, Clanton, and Lineville could very well see a few showers Saturday afternoon. But, from Birmingham north and west, the afternoon should be dry with a partly sunny sky and slightly lower humidity levels. The high should be in the low to mid 80s.

SUNDAY: The front pretty much stays in the same place, so the northern half of the state should be generally dry, but South Alabama will have a continued risk of showers with a high in the mid 80s again.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tonight and tomorrow night. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30 percent range.

Alabama will host Southern Miss Saturday evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; at this point it looks like the sky will be mostly fair with a kickoff temperature near 83 degrees, falling through the 70s during the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be partly sunny with only a slight risk of a shower. The temperature will be around 86 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: Seems to be a rather quiet week; the front will dissipate, and we might see a few widely scatterer showers or a day or two, but no widespread rain is expected, and highs should be in the low to mid 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A disturbance in the eastern Atlantic could become a tropical storm over the weekend, but it will recurve harmlessly over the open Atlantic and is no threat to land. Another disturbance is over the northern Bahamas; most dynamic models push this westward across the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico in coming days, but conditions are only marginal for development there. Still, we will keep an eye on it.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We still expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend from Panama City west to Gulf Shores, with the daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

Categories: Weather

Still Humid Through Friday

Wed, 09/10/2014 - 15:45

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers are very isolated across Alabama this afternoon; most communities are dry.

Temperatures are mostly in the upper 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The long awaited cold front to the north will creep southward, and should near the Tennessee border Friday. An organized band of showers and storms should enter far North Alabama tomorrow evening, drifting southward. The high resolution NAM model puts the band of showers and storms into the Tuscaloosa/Birmingham/Anniston areas by around 10:00 tomorrow night. No severe weather is expected with the main dynamic support well to the north.

The front will stall out Friday, keeping most of the state in warm, moist air. We will mention scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night with a mix of sun and clouds; the high will be in the mid 80s in most communities.

TRICKY WEEKEND FORECAST: Still a challenging weekend forecast. A good chance the Tennessee Valley (places like Florence, Decatur, Athens, Huntsville, and Scottsboro) will be rain-free Saturday with lower humidity, but as you work your way south you get back into moist air. We figure the boundary will be somewhere near I-59, so we will keep the risk of a shower or storm in the forecast Saturday from Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, and points south. The best coverage of showers should be over the southern half of the state.

Sunday the front will drift south and slowly lose it’s identity. I think most of North and Central Alabama will be dry with only an outside risk of a shower. Highs over the weekend will be in the low to mid 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tomorrow and Friday night. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30 percent range.

Alabama will host Southern Miss Saturday evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; I can’t rule out a shower in Tuscaloosa during this game, but I am a little more confident the game will be played with no major rain issues. The kickoff temperature will be near 83 degrees, dropping into the 70s during the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be occasionally cloudy, and a passing shower or storm is possible during the game. The temperature will be around 86 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: The week looks pretty quiet here with few, if any showers and temperatures near seasonal averages for the middle part of September with highs in the low to mid 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: The disturbance in the East Atlantic has a chance of becoming Tropical Storm Edouard in coming days, but it will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic well before getting close to the U.S. mainland.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Not much change through the weekend; about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a few scattered storms each day. Highs will be in the upper 80s, with sea water temperatures in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

Eyes On The Front To The North

Wed, 09/10/2014 - 06:15

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

VERY WARM, VERY HUMID THROUGH FRIDAY: Alabama’s weather won’t change much today; partly sunny, very warm, and very humid with only isolated showers or storms this afternoon and early tonight. Afternoon storms could be a little more active tomorrow, especially over the northern third of the state. Afternoon highs will remain generally in the 87 to 90 degree range, just above seasonal averages (today’s average high in Birmingham is 86.

The much discussed cold front to the north of Alabama should bring a band of organized storms down into the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama tomorrow night, but the front will begin to lose it’s southward push as the main dynamic support stays to the north. On Friday, we stay in a warm, muggy airmass, and this could very well be the day with the best coverage of showers and storms with the front over Tennessee. It won’t rain all day Friday, and the sun could be out at times, but a shower or storm will be possible at just about any hour. The high Friday will drop into the mid 80s.

COMPLICATED WEEKEND FORECAST: The front will drift into Alabama and stop somewhere Saturday; where the boundary winds up will determine the weather where you live. And, models are not in good agreement. The GFS pushes the front down below Montgomery, while the NAM and the ECMWF keep it closer to the Tennessee River. This makes for a low confidence forecast for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden. I think our best solution for now is to side with the front hanging up over North Alabama, meaning we will need to keep some risk of showers in the forecast.A pretty good chance you will have a dry day if you are in Muscle Shoals or Huntsville, but showers will remain possible to the south. The high Saturday will be in the mid 80s.

It really don’t get much easier Sunday. The front could actually drift north, and we will hang on to some risk of a shower during the day, but I don’t think the coverage of the showers will be especially high with little in the way of dynamic forcing. Sunday’s high will remain in the mid 80s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games tomorrow and Friday night. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30 percent range.

Alabama will host Southern Miss Saturday evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; I can’t rule out a shower in Tuscaloosa during this game, but the risk of lightning for now looks low this week. The sky will be mostly cloudy with temperatures falling from near 83 at kickoff into the 70s by the second half.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be occasionally cloudy, and a passing shower or storm is possible during the game. The temperature will be around 86 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the final whistle.

NEXT WEEK: Global models push moisture northward again Monday with some risk of showers, followed by a long awaited trend toward drier air Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A tropical wave in the East Atlantic could become Tropical Storm Edouard in coming days, but it will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic well before getting close to the U.S.

AT THE BEACH: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend from Panama City west to Gulf Shores; highs hold in the upper 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be doing a weather program today in Hoover at the monthly meeting of the Alabama Chapter of the Community Associations Institute…. look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Watching The Front Up North

Tue, 09/09/2014 - 15:47

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

MUGGY SEPTEMBER AFTERNOON: Another very warm day across Alabama with temperatures close to 90 degrees, and we have a few widely scattered showers and storms over the northern half of the state. The showers aren’t moving much, and will fade away tonight.

Not much weather change tomorrow; partly sunny with a high around 90 and the risk of widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A cold front will approach the state from the north; this represents the leading edge of much cooler air. Cut Bank, Montana reports 36 degrees with light snow at 2p MT. The front will take it’s time to get here, however, so we stay in moist air on these two days. Scattered showers and storms will gradually increase; looks like the highest coverage of showers and storms will come on Friday, but even then it won’t rain all day. The high will be in the upper 80s Thursday, and mid 80s Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A very tricky forecast with a well defined surface front somewhere over North Alabama Saturday. Model consistency has not been very good with the frontal position, but it does look like cooler, drier air will cover North Alabama north of U.S. 278 Saturday, so places like Hamilton, Cullman, Gadsden, and points north should enjoy a partly to mostly sunny day with lower humidity. But, from roughly I-59 south, we will need to maintain some risk of a shower or storm. We will have a much higher confidence forecast for Saturday tomorrow as new model data rolls in.

Sunday looks dry for about the northern half of Alabama, with some risk of scattered showers and storms continuing for the southern counties of the state. Highs over the weekend should be in the low to mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Looks pretty comfortable, with highs in the low 80s and lows around 60, with upper 50s for cooler spots. The weather should be dry for at least the first half of the week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Again this week we have the risk of a passing shower or storm for high school games Thursday and Friday night. The showers and and storms will be scattered, so it won’t rain everywhere, but a few stadiums could see some rain. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter. The chance of any one stadium seeing rain is in the 30 percent range.

Alabama will host Southern Miss Saturday evening (5:00p kickoff) at Bryant-Denny Stadium; just a slight risk of a shower during the first half of the game, otherwise the sky will be generally fair with temperatures falling from 84 degrees at kickoff, into the low 70s by the final whistle.

UAB hosts Alabama A&M Saturday at Legion Field in Birmingham at 2:30p; the sky will be partly sunny, and a passing shower or storm is possible during the game. The temperature will be around 86 degrees at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the end of the game.

TROPICS: The disturbance over the East Atlantic has a chance of becoming Tropical Storm Edouard in coming days; it will move west/northwest over the open Atlantic, and most likely will recurve before getting close to the U.S. Another weak disturbance is just east of the Bahamas, and development there does not look likely in the short term.

GULF COAST WEATHER: We still project about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend with the daily risk of scattered showers and storms from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. Highs on the coast will stay in the upper 80s, and sea water temperatures are mostly in the mid 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the kids today at Cahaba Valley Learning Center in Shelby County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warm, Moist Air Stays In Place

Tue, 09/09/2014 - 06:25

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

EYES TO THE NORTH: While Alabama will remain in a very warm, moist airmass, we are watching some cold air dipping into the far northern U.S. this morning. Cut Bank, Montana has dropped to 34 degrees with a northwest winds of 10 mph, putting the wind chill index in the upper 20s. Some cities over the northern U.S. won’t get out of the 40s by tomorrow as the coldest air so far this young meteorological fall arrives.

Ahead of the cold front, severe storms are possible today and tomorrow from the Great Plains to the Great Lakes.

AROUND HERE: Not much change in the weather today and tomorrow. Highs around 90 degrees; widely spaced afternoon and evening showers and storms. The chance of any one spot getting a shower today and tomorrow will be about one in five.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The chance of showers and storms will increase as the front approaches Alabama from the north. The new set of global models (GFS and ECMWF) keep a fairly strong upper ridge across the southern states, meaning the front will have some work to do before getting through here, and it will be a slower process than earlier thought. So, showers and storms will remain possible through Friday. No continuous rain, but a shower or storm will be possible at just about any time Friday and Friday night, meaning there could be some rain around for some of the high school football games around here.

WEEKEND FORECAST CHANGES: Unfortunately we will need to hold off the arrival of the cooler and drier air for parts of Alabama, and the weekend weather will all depend on where you live. If you are up in the northwest corner of the state around Muscle Shoals, the weekend looks very nice with lower humidity and cooler nights. However, the global models hang the front up around I-59, meaning for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden, and points south, we will have to introduce the chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday. Again, the rain won’t be continuous, but showers are a distinct possibility both days along and south of I-59. Highs will drop into the low to mid 80s, but early morning lows will be in the upper 60s; we will have to wait until early next week to enjoy the really cooler mornings.

NEXT WEEK: The drier air finally arrives as the stubborn upper ridge is beat down by a long wave upper trough over the eastern third of the nation. The week is looking mostly dry and pleasant for a decent part of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: The tropical wave southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, in the far eastern Atlantic, has chance of some slow development in coming days, but if anything forms it will recurve into the open Atlantic well before getting close to the U.S. mainland. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day along the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores through the weekend with the daily risk of scattered thunderstorms. Highs will remain mostly in the upper 80s; the sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for show notes for the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be doing a program for the kids at the Cahaba Valley Learning Center this morning in Shelby County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 450: He’s Been Tested

Tue, 09/09/2014 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 450 is now online (September 8, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest Panelist is the co-founder and Chief Science Officer for Mano Nanotechnologies, Inc., a New York-based startup company focusing on research and development of advanced environmental sensor technology. He holds advanced degrees in meteorology and atmospheric science from Florida State University with 25 years of experience as a leader in technology and business management. He is currently working on an exciting new start up project. Dr. John Manobianco, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is a suggestion by listener Erick Church. He is the Chief Meteorologist for KTUZ-TV in Oklahoma City. Michael Saenz, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 106 at Needles, CA, and Ojai, CA, and 25 at Stanley, ID
  • Tropics fairly quiet with just one area of concern south of the Cape Verde Islands
  • Small slight risk area in Iowa for today and expanding on Day 2 in much the same area
  • Discussion on Warning Coordination Meteorologist job
  • Last Super Moon of the year going on during the show
  • August a very low month for tornadoes since 1960
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is trying to catch up on incoming messages from our listeners. It’s a never ending job!

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: This week we take a peek into history and try to find a connection between a Lutheran minister, weather observations, and a big award for cooperative weather observers. It’s interesting to see who some of the past weather geeks are.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 450:

    WeatherBrains Limited Edition T-shirt

    KTUZ-TV Web Site

    Spot the International Space Station

    Picks of the Week:

    Nate Johnson – Upper Air Climatology Plots

    John Manobianco – Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise

    Brian Peters – Galveston Meteorologist Isaac Cline

    John Scala – Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900

    Kevin Selle – Sounding Data for KDFW

    Rick Smith – Taking Turbulence out of Air Travel

    James Spann – EKDMOS version 2 Meteorgrams

    Aubrey Urbanowicz – Tornado Warning Graphic

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    Only Isolated Showers Tomorrow and Wednesday

    Mon, 09/08/2014 - 15:38

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    RADAR CHECK: We have a few showers and thunderstorms on radar this afternoon; most of them (but not all) are south of I-20 and west of I-65. They are moving south, and like recent days they will fizzle out by 9:00 or 10:00 tonight.

    TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: These two days look warm and relatively dry; a few showers are possible during the afternoon and evening hours, but they should be pretty widely spaced. The risk of any one spot getting wet is only about one in five. The high will be pretty close to 90 degrees in most locations.

    To the north, severe storms are possible on these two days from Iowa to the Great Lakes ahead of a deepening surface low and cold front.

    THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A big pattern change begins, and the cold front will move into Alabama Thursday night. We will forecast a chance of showers and storms ahead of the boundary Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, but no severe weather is expected here with the dynamic support and surface low well to the north. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch look likely.

    The front will creep down into South Alabama during the day Friday; we will hang on to some risk of a stray morning shower Friday, but dry air should take over by the afternoon hours over the northern half of the state. Highs will drop into the upper 80s Thursday, and mid 80s Friday.

    THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Looks excellent with mostly sunny days, lower humidity, and cooler nights. We are projecting highs in the low 80s, with early morning lows in the 58-62 degree range. Much more comfortable for football fans Saturday compared to this past weekend.

    Next week looks mostly dry and pleasant as well; see the Weather Xtreme video for the latest maps, graphics, and details.

    TROPICS: A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands, in the far East Atlantic, will move to the west/northwest in coming days, and will have the chance of becoming Tropical Storm Edouard. The GFS is suggesting that if anything does develop, it will recurve in the Atlantic before reaching the U.S., but it a little too early to know for sure. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.

    GULF COAST WEATHER: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day along the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores through the weekend, with the usual risk of scattered thunderstorms. Highs on the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s, with sea water temperatures mostly in the mid 80s.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
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    I had a great time today visiting with the third graders at Deer Valley Elementary School in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

    Categories: Weather

    Cold Front Arrives Late This Week

    Mon, 09/08/2014 - 06:19

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    STILL WARM AND HUMID THROUGH MID-WEEK: Alabama’s weather won’t change very much through Wednesday; warm, humid days with a mix of sun and clouds, and the risk of a few showers and storms each afternoon. The storms should be pretty widely spaced, and afternoon highs will be in the 88-91 degree range, just above average for early September in Alabama (Birmingham’s average high for September 8 is 87 degrees). Humidity levels will remain rather high with a summer feel.

    PATTERN CHANGE AHEAD: A deep surface low will form over the Great Plains tomorrow, moving to the Great Lakes Wednesday. This will pull a cold front southward, the leading edge of much cooler air that is now over Canada. A fairly significant severe weather threat is setting up south and east of the surface low on these two days over the northern U.S.

    This cold front will push into Alabama Thursday night, and an organized band of showers and storms should push through our state. No severe weather is expected here, as the main surface low and dynamic support will remain to the north. Looks like the main window for showers and storms ahead of the front will come from about 4:00 p.m. Thursday through 4:00 a.m. Friday; rain amounts of around 1/2 inch can be expected.

    REFRESHING CHANGE: The sky becomes partly to mostly sunny Friday, with a fresh north breeze and lower humidity, and the weekend ahead will be very nice with ample sunshine Saturday and Sunday, low humidity, and pleasant highs. Looks like the high will be in the low 80s over the weekend, with early morning lows in the 58-62 degree range.

    You won’t need jackets or sweaters this weekend, but it will be more comfortable at high school and college football games. No threat of storms, lower humidity levels, and cooler nights.

    The dry weather continues into at least the first half of next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and details.

    TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet at a time when the tropics should be peaking. There is a new wave coming off the coast of Africa with some chance of development; it will move west-northwest in coming days in a relatively dry airmass. Remains to be seen if this will develop at all, recurve, or be some threat to land. We will keep an eye on it.

    GULF COAST FORECAST: Pretty typical early September weather from Panama City over to Gulf Shores this week; about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with the risk of scattered thunderstorms; highs will be in the upper 80s on the immediate coast, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 85 degrees. The cooler and drier air will have a hard time reach the coast this weekend, but showers will become fewer in number, most likely, by Saturday and Sunday.

    WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

    CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

    Facebook
    Twitter
    Google Plus
    Instagram

    I will be doing a weather program today at Deer Valley Elementary School in Hoover… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

    Categories: Weather

    Storms Firing Up

    Sun, 09/07/2014 - 14:07

    A cold front slipped through the area overnight. That front is located over South Central Alabama this afternoon.

    Showers and thunderstorms were blowing up from Hale and Bibb Counties southeastward into the Montgomery area.

    Isolated storms were over the northeastern part of Jefferson County.

    Some of the storms were quite strong with heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. They will continue pushing southeastward through the afternoon hours.

    Temperatures were in the lower 90s mostly before the storms. The only exceptions across the northern half of the state was in the Northwest corner where readings in the middle 80s were the norm thanks to stubborn early morning clouds.

    Categories: Weather

    Another Summer-ish Day

    Sun, 09/07/2014 - 07:13

    An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

    We saw a mix of sun, clouds, and scattered showers yesterday, and today should be a lot like that. The weak frontal boundary will continue to wash out and just a slight amount of drying in the atmosphere should reduce our chances for showers as we head into the upcoming work week. But for today look for scattered showers once again with our afternoon highs reaching close to 90.

    There is not much change occurring in the upper atmosphere over the next few days. A weak trough passing today will assist with some shower production keeping the showers primarily scattered as moisture settles south of the Birmingham area. Following the moisture, the better chances for scattered showers will move into South Alabama while North and Central Alabama experience just enough of a drop in precipitable water for showers to become isolated, so that most of us stay dry. Morning lows will continue in the 68 to 72 range while afternoon highs will dance with 90 degrees on most days.

    While the main westerlies continue to hug the Canadian border for much of the week, there is a strong trough passing well to the north of us at the end of the week which will drag a front toward Alabama by Thursday. Because the main dynamics continue to stay very far north, the front is likely to stall in our vicinity. This could impact our weather for Friday with better chances for showers and storms. While the main dynamics remain well north the GFS and ECMWF seem to be in fairly good agreement on bringing drier and cooler air into our area with a large surface high to our north and northeast. This is verging on voodoo, and I would like to see the upper flow become less zonal to support the idea of the front pushing through our area.

    The tropics are ramping up a little. Three areas are being watched, but the newest area just coming off the African continent has the greatest potential for developing into a full blown tropical system in the next five days. In the eastern Pacific, Norbert is weakening as it remains offshore of the Baja Peninsula and is likely to come ashore as a depression in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

    For beach enthusiasts, it will be warm and humid with a mix of sun and clouds each day. Sunshine should still be fairly good with 4 to 7 hours each day. Rain chances will be a little above average each day with the best chance for rain during the afternoon and into the evening hours. Highs will be in the upper 80s each afternoon while lows will be in the upper 70s. Water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 86 degrees.

    As we saw yesterday with the GFS, the pattern is likely to become active in week two with a fairly strong trough developing again over the eastern US around the 16th. And the GFS keeps this idea of the troughiness in place out through the 22nd. This could certainly spell some much cooler days if this verifies correctly.

    And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

    James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

    I expect James Spann to be have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Glad to see Alabama and Auburn top their opponents yesterday as well as the Florida State Seminoles. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

    -Brian-

    Categories: Weather

    A Few Strong Storms

    Sat, 09/06/2014 - 19:51

    A few strong storms are occurring tonight over North Central Alabama ahead of a cool front.

    Strong storms are over eastern Winston County, Cullman County near Hanceville and another weaker one between Ashville and Ohatchee in St. Clair County.

    They are moving only slowly south southeast.

    If you find yourself in the path of one of these storms be ready for torrential rains, deadly lightning and gusty winds.

    Categories: Weather

    Midday Radar Check

    Sat, 09/06/2014 - 12:16

    We continue to be under a very moisture rich air mass across the state today. We are seeing a mix of sun and clouds, with very warm and humid conditions. As the atmosphere heats up, and instability builds, showers and storm begin bubbling up across the state. Looking at the radar, we are seeing scattered to numerous showers across the Alabama landscape.

    There are a few storms mixed in with the showers, but overall we are just seeing showers. The general movement of today’s convection is towards the south. A weak frontal boundary is sagging south into the state, and that is also helping provide a little bit of extra uplift which is helping showers develop as well.

    Heading through the rest of the afternoon, expect more of the same. A mix of sun and clouds, with showers and storms. Storms should continue into the evening hours before winding down once the daytime heating is lost.

    Click image to enlarge.

    Categories: Weather