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WeatherBrains 536: I Knew Nothing About Tornadoes

Tue, 04/26/2016 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 536 is now online (April 25, 2016). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

This episode of WeatherBrains will look back five years to the historic weather events of April 27, 2011, in the Southeast US, especially Alabama. Joining us tonight is Kim Cross, author of What Stands in a Storm, a story that traces the events that day through compelling stories from the people who survived that day. Also part of the discussion includes Stephen Latimer, Forecaster NWS Huntsville, AL, and Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist-in-Charge, NWS Birmingham, AL.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 101 at Cotulla, TX, and Laredo, TX, and 13 at Mount Washington, NH
  • Moderate risk for severe weather in Nation’s heartland for Day 2 (see graphic below)
  • Drought still strong in southern California
  • Very little cold weather in US
  • High wind/dry conditions in Southwest US
  • Some winter weather in Central Rockies
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Our email bag officer (Aubrey) is back with a summary of emails from our listeners.

From The Weather Center:

WeatherBrains 101: No WeatherBrains 101 for this episode.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 536:

NOAA’s Natural Disaster Survey Report on April 27, 2011

Summary of Historic Tornado Event of April 27, 2011, from NWS Birmingham

NWS, Huntsville, AL, Remembering April 27, 2011

Kim Cross’s What Stands in a Storm

Article on families accepting diplomas after April 27, 2011

To subscribe to the brand new SkyWritings, an email newsletter from the WeatherBrains gang, click HERE.

Picks of the Week:

Kim Cross – Bo Bikes Bama

Nate Johnson – ASCII weather art

Stephen Latimer & Jim Stefkovich – NWS interactive site for April 27, 2011, stories/pictures

Bill Murray – NOAA Interactive Maps for April 27, 2011

Brian Peters – SPC WCM 25-Year tornado averages

Kevin Selle – Turn Around, Don’t Drown

James Spann – NWS Louisville, KY, Shareholders Report

Aubrey Urbanowicz – Rocky Mtn Fire 2016, Shenandoah Valley

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Summer Preview Continues

Mon, 04/25/2016 - 15:22

WARM SPRING DAY: The average high for Birmingham on April 25 is 76 degrees… we are about five degrees above that level in most places this afternoon with a sunny sky. Warm weather will stick around for the rest of the week with highs in the 80s.

TOMORROW: While Alabama will stay warm and dry, a major severe weather event is likely from the Great Plains southward into Texas…

A few violent, long track tornadoes are possible in the “moderate risk” area from southern Nebraska down through parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Severe storms are possible in the broad zone from St. Louis to Houston; around here most of the day will be dry with a mix of sun and clouds; we rise into the 82-85 degree range by afternoon. A shower or storm is possible late in the day, but the better chance of rain comes Wednesday night into Thursday. The good news is that the overall system will weaken considerably, and we don’t expect any severe weather issues in our state Thursday. Rain amounts should be in the 1/2 inch range.

FRIDAY: Our weather looks generally dry and very warm, with potential for upper 80s in spots. The sky will be partly sunny.

THE WEEKEND: A few widely scattered showers or storms is possible Saturday, but a decent part of the day should be dry with a high in the mid 80s. Then, showers and storms will become more numerous Sunday as the next weather system approaches from the west. Like the one Thursday, dynamic support will be weakening, and the chance of severe weather looks small at this point.

NEXT WEEK: Cooler, drier air begins to arrive, and global models are now coming into agreement that a period of below average temperatures are likely by the middle of next week.. some North Alabama communities could drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Friday looks dry with a good supply of sunshine; it will be a warm day with a high in the mid 80s. A few scattered showers or storms are possible Saturday, but still a decent part of the day should be dry; the high Saturday afternoon will be hold in the mid 80s. Then, showers and storms become more widespread Sunday. It won’t rain all day Sunday, but delays are a very real possibility. Sunday’s high will be in the 77 to 80 degree range.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny days, and fair nights for Gulf Shores and the zone over to Panama City Beach with highs in the 70s on the immediate coast, with 80s inland. A few scattered showers or storms are possible this weekend. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30p CT… you can watch it live here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the students at Trinity Christian Academy in Oxford… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Monday Midday Nowcast For Central Alabama

Mon, 04/25/2016 - 10:59

Skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy across much of the area, with a better concentration of broken clouds mostly in the southern half of the state. No rain is showing up on radar, and should remain that way throughout the day.

Temperatures across the state were already well in the 70s, and will be headed into the 80s for afternoon highs. Here are observations from a few select cities in Alabama:

Birmingham 73
Gadsden 70
Anniston 75
Cullman 72
Muscle Shoals 75
Montgomery 79
Mobile 75

TODAY & TONIGHT: Mostly clear skies and warm temperature will persist throughout the rest of the daytime hours, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s. There may be a few fair weather cumulus clouds floating overhead, but no risk of rain. Overnight lows will be near 60.

TUESDAY: Weather across the state will almost be a carbon copy of today, but there will be some very active weather out to the west. We will enjoy another warm and dry day, with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the mid 80s.

WEATHERBRAINS IS TONIGHT: This week, the crew will be talking about the April 27, 2011 tornado outbreak. Check out the weekly netcast that’s all about weather at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes. You can watch the show live at live.bigbrainsmedia.com. You can also see the show on the James Spann 24×7 weather channel on cable or satellite or directly over the air on the dot 2 feed.

Categories: Weather

Warmest Week So Far This Year

Mon, 04/25/2016 - 06:30

ANOTHER DRY DAY: Alabama’s weather will stay warm and dry today, with ample sunshine along with a high up in the low to mid 80 this afternoon. You might see a few fair weather cumulus clouds later today, but there is no risk of rain.

TOMORROW: A very active severe weather day is likely tomorrow across the nation’s heartland…

The good news is that for Alabama, all of this stays well to the west, and we will enjoy another warm and dry day with a high up in the mid 80s. The sky will be partly to mostly sunny.

WEDNESDAY: The risk of severe weather creeps closer to Alabama, in a broad zone from St. Louis down to Houston…

The morning will be dry Wednesday; we will mention just the chance of shower or storm Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night, but no severe weather is expected in Alabama for now.

THURSDAY: The system that is responsible for the severe weather threats west of Alabama will weaken and lift out. Showers and storms are a good possibility for our state Thursday, but with weakening dynamic support severe weather is not expected to be an issue. Thursday’s high will be close to 80 degrees.

FRIDAY: For now it looks dry, and very warm. The GFS is printing a high of 88 degrees for Birmingham, which means this will most likely be one of the warmest days so far this year (we did reach 88 on March 15).

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will introduce the risk of widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon, but a a decent part of the day will be dry. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid to upper 80s as the summer preview continues. Then, the chance of showers and storms will increase on Sunday as another disturbance approaches from the west. While a strong storm is not totally out of the question, the severe weather risk Sunday looks low. The high Sunday will drop to near 80 due to clouds and showers.

NEXT WEEK: Looks like we will need to maintain some chance of rain for the first half of the week, followed by cooler temperatures. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: Friday promises to be a very nice day at the Talladega Superspeedway, with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the 86-89 degree range. Saturday should be mostly dry with only a few widely scattered showers to deal with; the high Saturday will be well up in the 80s. But, Sunday could be a problem with a good chance of showers and storms. It won’t rain all day, and they certainly have a chance of getting the race in, but be ready for delays. Sunday’s high will be close to 80 degrees.

AT THE BEACH: Just a few isolated showers today from Gulf Shores over to Panama City Beach, otherwise mostly sunny days and fair nights through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s along the immediate coast, with 80s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 74 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

FIFTH ANNIVERSARY: Watch ABC 33/40 tomorrow evening at 6:00 for a one hour special as we look back at the generational tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011 that killed 252 people in our state.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch online here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be speaking at Trinity Christian Academy in Oxford today… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

A Tale of Two Storms from Satellite Sheldon

Sun, 04/24/2016 - 14:30

Click image to enlarge.

– Special to the AlabamaWX Blog by Sheldon Kusselson

Categories: Weather

A Great Day to be Outdoors!

Sun, 04/24/2016 - 10:47

What a gorgeous day is in progress across Central Alabama! Perfect weather for outdoor activities like Honda Indy Grand Prix and the Magic City Art Connection.

Sara Evans will sing the national anthem at 2:30 p.m. CDT at the stunning Barber Motorsports Park and the green flag will drop on the 90 lap Honda Grand Prix of Alabama at 2:38 p.m. There are lots of fun family activities and an infinite number of locations to view the track. Sit in the bleachers in the TNT fun zone or bring a blanket and spread out in the grass somewhere along the 2.38 mile racecourse. There are other options as well at the Honda Indy Grand Prix website.

I love days where you can talk about how far away the nearest clouds and nearest rainfall are from the state. A few high clouds are crossing over the northern half of the state, but they are thin and don’t offer much coverage. So have the sunscreen handy wherever you are outside today.

Higher clouds are over Texas and Louisiana, associated with an upper level disturbance over South Texas. We will see some of those clouds overnight.

There are a few clouds over South Carolina associated with an interesting feature that appears to be rotating anticyclonically as it drifts southwestward. Those clouds won’t affect us.

The surface low that is over South Dakota today will move into the Northeast by Tuesday, dragging a weakening cold front into the Tennessee Valley, but it should stay well to the north of us.

Today will be completely dry, and there could be an isolated shower on Monday, but any that do form will affect less than 10% of the area. Same for Tuesday with just an outside chance of a shower or storm.

Highs will be in the 80s every day this week. Lows will be in the 60s.

Significant severe weather, including the threat of large tornadoes, is forecast for areas from Kansas through Central Oklahoma into North Texas on Tuesday. Places like Dallas, Oklahoma City, Wichita and Concordia, Kansas will be under the gun as a surface low moves toward the Midwest on Wednesday.

The storms from Tuesday will outrun their support as they limp into Alabama late Wednesday. But more shower and storms will form on Thursday as the frontal system hangs out just to our north. An additional system could bring more showers and storms on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday tentatively look dry, although there could be scattered showers and storms in a summerlike pattern.

A big system could affect Alabama on Sunday night or early Monday with showers and storms.

Categories: Weather

Cool Start but a Warm Afternoon

Sun, 04/24/2016 - 07:48

Just a reminder that I am providing weather support to the operations at the Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama at Barber Motorsports Park, so there will not be a video produced today. Here is a discussion of the weather ahead.

Sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the lower and middle 80s across Central Alabama today. Dew points are also down a tad, so the relative humidity will be lower than usual with readings around 40 percent this afternoon. If you do have plans to see any of the races at Barber Motorsports Park, be sure to pack the sunscreen.

At the beach, look for plenty of sunshine and very nice weather today and for much of the week ahead. Afternoon highs are in the 70s along the immediate coast, with lower 80s just inland. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

A strong upper low will come out of the Rockies today and Monday producing a round of severe weather in the Central Plains States. SPC has outlooked a enhanced risk for storms for Northeast Kansas and Southeast Nebraska with an area marks as slight risk from North Central Oklahoma to western Iowa. A surface low will track eastward from western South Dakota to the Mid-Atlantic states by Tuesday. Both the upper low and the surface low will weaken as they move eastward Monday and Tuesday.

Behind that first system, another upper trough will dig into the southern Rockies by Tuesday and begin to eject eastward. This will produce another round of severe weather in a band from North Central Texas northward into northern Nebraska (Day 3) and across a sizable area of the Middle Mississippi River Valley on Day 4 (Wednesday).

While all of the action is going on well to our west and northwest, a large ridge will remain in place across the Southeast US keeping us warm through midweek with highs in the 80s. These values will be about 5 to 7 degrees higher than we usually experience this time of year. Isolated showers will be possible to the east and south of Central Alabama as the air mass becomes warm and more moist.

Thursday a front is expected to drag into the Southeast US, so right now it appears our best shot for some rain will come in the Thursday-Friday time frame. The front is forecast to weaken and wash out, but with that boundary lingering around we could see some isolated showers into the weekend. But all indications are that we’ll continue to see warm weather with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s, mainly middle 80s.

Looking out into voodoo country, yet another trough comes out of the Rockies on Monday, May 2, but this one promises to come out much further south as the ridge over the Southeast US breaks down. It’s much too early to state specifics, but this could bring a round of severe storms to the Southeast US in the May 2nd to 4th time frame. That trough is forecast by the GFS to be pretty deep, so we could see a round of pretty chilly temperatures in the May 5th to 6th time frame. And the GFS keeps a chillier look to the pattern through May 10th with a deep trough over the eastern US and a large ridge over the Rockies, the exact opposite of what we are seeing right now.

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy this great spring weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Splendid Spring Weather

Sat, 04/23/2016 - 13:51

Plenty of sunshine across the state today, but there are a few fair weather clouds in the Alabama sky this afternoon.

Temperatures are in the 70s and most locations, and with dew points in the lower 50s, it is feeling very nice and pleasant.

Heading into tonight, expect a clear night with cool temperatures, most locations across Central Alabama will settle in the lower to mid 50s.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: Great weather today, and thanks to Scott Martin for the picture below, showing just how beautiful the weather is today. The great weather will continue tomorrow at the Barber Motorsports Park. For the final races Sunday, expect a near repeat of today, with only warmer temperatures. The weather could not be better for the races out there this weekend. Of course, take the sunscreen and make sure you stay hydrated as well. Get ticket information here.

SUNNY SUNDAY: Another gorgeous day is ahead with nothing but sunshine and blue sky. It will be a warmer day with most locations likely making it into the lower 80s. No chance of rain and any outdoor plans you have will be A-OKAY as far as the weather.

THE WEEK AHEAD: The ridge will remain firmly in control of our weather for much of the week ahead. Expect moderating temperatures as well, and we are going to be seeing lower and mid 80s all week, making this the warmest week of weather so far this year. Once again, I would not be surprised to see some 90s on the maps across South Alabama this upcoming week as well.

The days will feature more sun than clouds, and nights will be clear. Lows in the 60s are what most of us can expect. The weather stays active to the west of the state, where multiple days of severe weather are expected across the Plains and Midwest. The ridge will keep that active weather away from Alabama for much of the week ahead. By the end of the week, it looks as though we are going to see our rain chances increase. A lot of model divergence for the end of the week, but as of now, we will mention the chance of showers and storms, but at this time severe weather does not look to be a threat for Alabama.

Categories: Weather

A Busy Week Over at the Alabama News Center

Sat, 04/23/2016 - 11:16

Our friends at Alabama NewsCenter were busy this past week offering up positive stories about the state.

Barber Motorsports Park prepares for Indy Grand Prix of Alabama, tops out museum expansion

Who are the Alabama Crimson Tide ‘Assassins’ to watch this A-Day?

Toni Tennille: Alabama native on Auburn, stardom and an affectionless marriage to ‘the Captain’

Alabama Power’s ‘piano man’ tapped for Cliburn competition

Roald Hazelhoff ensures the vermilion darter will continue to survive in Alabama

The Alabama Interscholastic Cycling League is putting young people on bikes

Throwback Thursday: Alabama Power wants your photos of our linemen at work

Share your love for Alabama linemen today through June 6

Birmingham-area teen meets his Alabama Power heroes

Alabama Power hosts ‘Track to Your Future’ at Barber Motorsports Park

Energy Institute of Alabama formed to research, advocate sound energy policies

Alabama Power, Army, break ground on solar facility at Anniston Army Depot

Alabama’s award-winning Wood Studio builds functional, beautiful furniture

UAB awarded $19.5 million grant for new xenotransplantation program

Urban Ministry’s WE Community Café is all about the eatin’

Seasick Records in Birmingham celebrates vinyl resurgence on Record Store Day

Make Earth Day last: Get outdoors, get artsy and enjoy family time with Can’t Miss Alabama

The Marengo County town of Jefferson illustrates the power of unity with annual barbecue

Quinoa salad and cake batter milkshake: Eclipse Coffee and Books makes list of 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama before you die

Grilled catfish at Fincher’s Delite is on the menu of 100 Dishes to Eat in Alabama Before You Die

Alabama Family Trust adds new leaders, new office and future national plans

Fighting feral hogs: Alabama Power, USDA team up to reduce environmental damage

Preserving the longleaf pine: Alabama Power, partners help protect one of the most diverse ecosystems in the world

Fairview Environmental Park: Restoring new life to a city fixture through partnership

World’s most endangered sea turtle species in even more trouble than was thought

Auburn University’s Recreation and Wellness Center named one of the best nationwide

Alabama real estate outlook softens during 2Q, overall outlook remains steady

Lake Homes Realty’s Justin Dyar to appear on HGTV’s “Lakefront Bargain Hunt” Sunday night

As foreclosure rates fall, housing market being built on more solid ground versus ‘house of cards’

Cullman area March home sales up 20 percent over the same period in 2015

Dothan year-to-date home sales through March up 5 percent over same period last year

Categories: Weather

Very Nice Spring Weekend

Sat, 04/23/2016 - 06:58

I am handling weather support for the Honda Indy Grand Prix at Barber Motorsports, so there will not be a video this morning. There will probably not be a video tomorrow either.

The weather looks great for the weekend with plenty of sunshine, highs in the upper 70s today and around 80 Sunday, and lower humidity so it will feel great, too. We started the day out on a cool-isa note with much of Central Alabama dipping back into the lower 50s with a few places across North Alabama in the middle and upper 40s.

For beach goers, look for mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast through the middle of the week with highs in the 70s on the immediate coast and 80s inland with morning lows mainly in the 60s. Sea water temperatures are mostly in the low 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

The Honda Indy Grand Prix of Alabama is being held at Barber Motorsports Park today and Sunday with sunny weather both days; 78 is the forecast high today with low 80s Sunday. Get ticket information here.

Talladega race weekend will be next weekend. While still a little early for a very specific forecast, the pattern is looking pretty good with warm and dry weather expected.

The upper trough that brought some unsettled weather to Central Alabama yesterday is moving off the Mid-Atlantic States today as we come under a strong ridge. The upper ridge along with a surface high will keep our weather warm and dry through the middle of the week. Look for highs to rise into the lower 80s through midweek with lows in the 60s.

For the latter half of next week, there seems to be fairly good agreement between the European and the GFS with a surface low moving across the southern portion of the Great Lakes and into the Atlantic. The ridge manages to hold fairly strong for the Southeast US as the surface low drags a weakening front into the area. This brings the potential for showers during the latter part of next week and potentially into the weekend.

The system at midweek looks strong so the SPC folks have included a risk of severe storms into Day 4 and Day 5. All indications are that this could be a fairly significant severe weather episode over a couple of days.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains active with a pretty stout trough around May 3rd that could spell some cooler weather for the eastern half of the county. Another low latitude trough enters the picture around May 6th that could spell some wet weather for the Central Gulf Coast area and the Southeast US. A deep closed low follows that on May 8th that has the potential for producing another round of severe storms.

And if you have been following the tropics at all, Fantala continued to church in the South Indian Ocean north of Madagascar but much weaker that it was a week ago. After going back and forth several times, the latest forecast track takes it into the eastern coast of Africa in a weakening condition around the 28th of April.

I will plan on posting another weather discussion tomorrow morning around 8 am or so. The conditions for producing a video are just not very conducive with people coming and going and the roar of race cars.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Beautiful Weekend Ahead

Fri, 04/22/2016 - 14:45

RADAR CHECK: As advertised this morning, we have scattered showers and a few strong storms across Alabama this afternoon. They are producing some creepy clouds, but as I write this are well under severe limits.

Heavier storms over the next few hours could produce some small hail and gusty winds, but the overall severe weather risk remains low. And, showers will end from northwest to southeast as drier air arrives following a surface front.

THE WEEKEND: Picture perfect spring weather. Sunny warm days, clear nights. The high tomorrow will be near 80 degrees, followed by low 80s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: While a very active severe weather pattern is setting up for North Texas and the Southern Plains, Alabama will be generally dry and very warm thanks to an upper ridge. We could see a few showers toward the end of the week, but nothing heavy or widespread. Highs will be well up in the 80s, and we might even see a few places touching 90 degrees for the first time this year. Summer must be getting close. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Look for mostly sunny days and fair nights on the Gulf Coast tomorrow through early next week with highs in the 70s on the immediate coast (80s inland). Sea water temperatures are mostly in the low 70s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: Perfect weather at the Barber Motorsports Park tomorrow and Sunday with sunny weather both days; 80 is the forecast high tomorrow, followed by low 80s. Get ticket information here.

TALLADEGA RACE WEEKEND: Too early to be specific, but the pattern favors warm and mostly dry weather for race weekend at the Talladega Superspeedway (April 29-May 1).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here Monday morning by 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Scattered Showers Developing Ahead of Cold Front

Fri, 04/22/2016 - 13:12

Click image to enlarge.

A slow moving cold front has pushed into Alabama and now lies along a line from Moulton to Hamilton to Vernon at this hour.

Showers are most common along the Jefferson/Walker County line over into Fayette and Pickens Counties.

The increasing showers are widely scattered but are forecast to increase in coverage through the early afternoon hours. They should peak between 3 and 4 p.m. and go down hill after that. By 6 p.m., they should be almost gone from the I-59 corridor and certainly by 7 p.m. they will be gone just about everywhere.

Areas west of the cold front will see a quick end to any showers as well.

No lightning yet, some of the cells are getting above 20,000 feet and will produce lightning when they start reaching over 30,000 feet in height.

Skies are partly cloudy, which is allowing surface temperatures to warm into the lower and middle 70s. This will combine with dewpoints still in the 60-61F range to fuel convection.

Instabilities are running in the 500-1,000 joules range across much of Alabama, with some pockets of CAPE above 1,000 joules. This will allow those storms to form. There is not very much shear, just enough to keep the showers from rianing themselves out. The best shear is coincident with the area where the showers are forming, which isn’t a surprise.

Be alert for the threat of lightning and be ready for some splash and dash showers. It probably won’t rain very long at any one location.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX UPDATE
Showers have formed in the vicinity of the track at 1:05 p.m. and additional showers are building upstream. No lightning in them yet, but by the time they reach the park around 1:45, there could be some. There is a Pirelli World Challenge GTS Race that will be going off here soon. Brian Peters is providing weather support at the track.

Make sure to get out to the track this weekend! It is a world class event!

Categories: Weather

A Few Strong Storms Today

Fri, 04/22/2016 - 06:20

RADAR CHECK: Rain is falling in scattered pockets across Alabama early this morning…

This will probably be the most widespread rain we see today; the morning showers will taper off during the next few hours, and a decent part of the state will be dry during the middle of the day. The sun might even break out at times, pushing temperatures into the mid to upper 70s.

A cold front will push into Northwest Alabama this afternoon, and new showers and storms should form ahead of the front. They will be pretty scattered in nature, but where storms do form they could be pretty strong. SPC maintains a “marginal risk” of severe storms later today for parts of North and Central Alabama…

The main risk from the stronger storms will come from small hail and gusty winds; and by late afternoon drier air will take over.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Delightful weather is the story with sunny warm afternoons; expect a high around 80 tomorrow, followed by low 80s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: While multiple severe weather days are likely across the Southern Plains down into Texas, an upper ridge will keep our weather mostly dry, with just a few scattered showers late in the week. It will easily be the warmest week so far this year, with daily highs well up into the 80s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: A few showers and storms are possible along the Gulf Coast through tonight from Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach, but the weather will be rain-free tomorrow and Sunday with mostly sunny days and highs in the 70s (along the immediate coast). Next week looks warm and mostly dry; highs close to 80 on the immediate coast, with mid to upper 80s inland. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: A passing shower or storm is possible a time or two today at the Barber Motorsports Park, but tomorrow and Sunday will feature sunshine in full supply. Today’s high will be in the upper 70s, followed by 80 degrees tomorrow, and low 80s Sunday. Get ticket information here.

RACE WEEKEND AT TALLADEGA: A little too early to be really specific, but the overall pattern for next weekend (April 30-May 1) looks very warm, and mostly dry. Afternoon temperatures should be in the 80s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be speaking to a group of employees from Jacksonville State University this morning in Calhoun County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Showers and Storms Pushing Through West Alabama; Not Severe

Thu, 04/21/2016 - 22:17

An area of showers and storms is pushing into Sumter County in West Alabama at this hour. The heaviest part of the activity will move north of Livingston.

There is still quite a bit of lightning, but the activity is weakening as it pushes northeast.

An approaching upper level trough and associated surface low and cold front are responsible for the showers and storms.

Additional showers and storms may form ahead of the cold front as it pushes into Alabama after midnight.

Storms are not expected to be strong overnight though.

The overnight activity should die down in areas west of I-59 by 7 a.m. and will push out of East Alabama by 10 a.m. Additional showers with some thunder may form around the lunch hour in the I-59 Corridor. They will push southeast during the afternoon and be out of the Birmingham area before 3 p.m.

Categories: Weather

Satellite Analysis from Satellite Sheldon

Thu, 04/21/2016 - 16:51

Categories: Weather

Scattered Showers/Storms Through Tomorrow

Thu, 04/21/2016 - 15:11

RADAR CHECK: As expected, rain amounts across Alabama today have been light and spotty. Rain showers continue to move northeast this afternoon…

We will maintain the risk of a few passing showers or storms tonight as the upper trough slowly approaches.

TOMORROW: SPC maintains a “marginal” severe weather risk for that part of Alabama along and south of a line from Scottsboro to Birmingham to Demopolis…

Surface based CAPE values will rise to near 2,000 j/kg over the southern half of the state tomorrow afternoon, so storms that form could produce some hail and gusty winds. But, the dynamic support will be weakening, and the overall severe weather threat is low.

Otherwise, tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a few scattered showers and storms. A decent part of the day will be dry, and the high will be in the 77-79 degree range for most communities. The sky becomes fair tomorrow night as drier air works in from the northwest.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Sunny weather is the story Saturday and Sunday; the high Saturday will be close to 80, with low 80s likely Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: An upper ridge will keep our state warm and generally dry through the week with highs in the 80s. There could be a day or two with a few isolated showers, but the big rains will come well to the west, where severe storms will threaten parts of the Texas and the Southern Plains Tuesday through Thursday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Showers and storms remain possible tomorrow from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores, but the weekend looks great with sunny days Saturday and Sunday… the weather will stay dry through a pretty decent part of next week. Highs along the immediate coast will hold mostly in the 70s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: A few widely scattered showers or storms are possible at the Barber Motorsports Park tomorrow, but a decent part of the day will be dry and I think they get some racing in. Then, perfect weather Saturday and Sunday with sunny warm days. Highs for the weekend will be at or just over 80 degrees. Get ticket information here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten, 1st grade, and 2nd grade students at Hueytown Elementary School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Thursday Midday Nowcast For Alabama

Thu, 04/21/2016 - 11:42

Mostly cloudy skies across much of the state, with rain falling at and just east of the Mississippi-Alabama State line. Most of the heavier storms are still located in eastern Texas, and just ahead of a stationary front lined up from western Tennessee and Kentucky, up through southeastern Indiana, much of Ohio, and up into southern Michigan. At the time of this post, there were no active severe weather warnings.

AT 11:00 AM: Much of north and west Alabama are under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. Much of southeast Alabama have partly cloudy to mostly clear skies, and that is allowing those communities to warm quicker. Rain is currently falling over much of the extreme western counties of the state. Much of that is light rain, but a few heavier showers are falling in Hale, Marengo, and Dallas counties. Temperatures at 11:00 AM for a few select cities across the state:

Birmingham: Cloudy 71
Tuscaloosa: Light Rain 69
Gadsden: Partly Sunny 73
Anniston: Mostly Sunny 76
Huntsville: Cloudy 70
Montgomery: Sunny 77
Auburn: Mostly Sunny 75
Mobile: Heavy Rain 71

TODAY & TONIGHT: With the trough, associated with an upper level low, that was part of the “omega block” pattern beginning to lift to the northeast, showers will return to the state. The rainfall will not be too widespread or heavy, but a few thunderstorms could form. No severe weather is expected, and rainfall amounts should be less than 1/2 inch. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s to right above 80, with generally cloudy skies (the sun could peek through at times).

TOMORROW: Skies will remain mostly cloudy throughout the day with showers and thunderstorms possible. Storms should be pretty scattered, and a good part of the day will be dry. Where storms do form, they could be strong, with small hail and gusty winds as the main threat. The SPC has areas of the state south of a line from Demopolis to Hoover to Anniston under a “marginal risk” for severe weather. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 70s to right above 80. Good news is that drier air will start to move in and showers will end from the northwest to the southeast during the afternoon.

THE WEEKEND: Almost could say perfect weather for the weekend, as sunny skies and warm temperatures will be the main story. Highs on Saturday will be near 80, with lower 80s expected for Sunday.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: A few widely scattered showers or storms are possible at the Barber Motorsports Park tomorrow, but a decent part of the day will be dry and I think they get some racing in. Then, perfect weather Saturday and Sunday with sunny warm days. Highs for the weekend will be at or just over 80 degrees. Get ticket information here.

Categories: Weather

Scattered Shower/Storms Return

Thu, 04/21/2016 - 06:20

MOISTURE LEVELS RISING: The upper low/trough that has been over the western U.S., part of the “omega block” pattern earlier this week, is beginning to lift northeast, and accordingly showers should return to Alabama today and tonight.

The rain won’t be too widespread or heavy, but a few thunderstorms could be involved. Rain amounts will be less than 1/2 inch for most, and no severe weather is expected. Temperatures reach the 77-80 degree range this afternoon with a generally cloudy sky (although the sun could peek out at times).

TOMORROW: While showers and storms remain possible, it looks like they will be pretty scattered in nature, and a decent part of the day will be dry. But, where storms do form tomorrow afternoon, they could be strong. SPC maintains a “marginal” severe weather risk for areas south of a line from Demopolis to Hoover to Anniston…

The main threat will come from small hail and gusty winds in the storms tomorrow afternoon over the southern two-thirds of the state. Expect a high temperature between 77 and 80 degrees, and showers will end from northwest to southeast during the afternoon as drier air arrives.

THE WEEKEND: Could not be better. Sunny warm days, clear at night. Saturday’s high will be close to 80, followed by low 80s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Warm is the word; highs will be in the 80s all week as ridging develops across the Southeast U.S. We will probably have a day or two with scattered showers, but the big action will be well to the west, where there will be multiple days with severe weather threats in a broad zone from Texas to Missouri and Iowa; SPC has risks defined now for days 6 through 8 (Tuesday through Thursday). See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: A few scattered showers and storms are possible through tomorrow with some sun breaking through at times, Then, expect mostly sunny days and fair nights Saturday through early next week. Highs from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores will be mostly in the 70s… See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: A few widely scattered showers or storms are possible at the Barber Motorsports Park tomorrow, but a decent part of the day will be dry and I think they get some racing in. Then, perfect weather Saturday and Sunday with sunny warm days. Highs for the weekend will be at or just over 80 degrees. Get ticket information here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Hueytown Elementary… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

A Few Showers/Storms Tomorrow And Friday

Wed, 04/20/2016 - 15:33

WARM SPRING AFTERNOON: Temperatures have reached the low 80s across much of North/Central Alabama this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds. The radar is very quiet; most of the showers and storms are well to the west over Louisiana and Arkansas.

Just a small risk of a shower here tonight; the sky will be mostly cloudy.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: We will mention the risk of scattered showers tomorrow and tomorrow night, but the rain won’t be widespread or heavy, and the sun might peek out at times. We expect a high in the 77-80 degree range, and rain amounts should be 1/4″ or less for most places.

The air becomes more unstable Friday, and SPC maintains a “marginal risk” of severe storms for parts of Alabama, generally south of a line from Demopolis to Birmingham to Scottsboro…

New model data continues to suggest that a decent part of the day Friday will be dry, with only widely scattered showers. Heavier storms will form during the afternoon when the air becomes more unstable (surface based CAPE values will approach 2,000 j/kg by mid-afternoon). But, the overall dynamic support will be weakening, and major severe weather issues are not expected. Just understand some storms Friday could produce some small hail and gusty winds; best chance of the stronger storms will come east and south of Birmingham during the afternoon and evening hours. The high Friday will remain between 77 and 80 degrees for most communities.

THE WEEKEND: Dry air takes over, and the weather could not be better. Sunny warm days, clear nights. The high Saturday will be near 80, with low 80s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Upper ridging will keep Alabama warm through the week with highs mostly in the 80s. Moisture levels will rise, and we will need to mention some risk of scattered showers on a daily basis, but the main risk of severe weather should remain well to the west, where upper dynamic support is much better. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: There will be a risk of scattered showers and storms Friday at the Barber Motorsports Park, but it won’t rain all day. Then, picture perfect weather Saturday and Sunday with sunshine in full supply both days. Highs over the weekend will be in the 80-83 degree range. Get ticket information here.

AT THE BEACH: There will be a risk of scattered showers and storms tomorrow and Friday, but still some sun is likely both days. Then, mostly sunny days and fair nights from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores Saturday though Monday. Highs mostly in the 70s… the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 72 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Twitter
Google Plus
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Wednesday Midday Nowcast For Alabama

Wed, 04/20/2016 - 11:45

An upper level low is currently located in extreme southeastern Nebraska, and most of the rain activity in the United States is located just ahead of an associated cold front that is draping back to the south and southwest through western Missouri, northwestern Arkansas, southeastern Oklahoma, and through northeast to central Texas.

AT 11:30 AM: Partly to mostly cloudy skies is the word across much of the state, with no rain currently on radar. Most places have already warmed well into the 70s. Here are the readings from a few select cities across Alabama:

Birmingham: 77
Tuscaloosa: 71
Gadsden: 77
Anniston: 77
Montgomery: 77
Selma: 77
Dothan: 77
Mobile: 72

TODAY & TONIGHT: Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy throughout the rest of the daytime and evening hours. An isolated shower is not out of the question, but many places will stay dry. Afternoon highs should reach the lower 80s for most places.

TOMORROW: As the blocked pattern that has kept heavy rain and thunderstorms over Texas breaks down, and an upper level low weakens and lifts out of the Great Plains, this will alow our rain chances to rise for Thursday. Showers are possible throughout the day, but rainfall will not be too heavy and it probably won’t rain all day.

HONDA INDY GRAND PRIX OF ALABAMA: Drivers will have to dodge a few showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm on Friday, but the weather could not be better Saturday and Sunday at the Barber Motorsports Park, with sunny days and warm afternoons. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s Saturday, and lower 80s Sunday. Get ticket information here.

Categories: Weather