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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 3 hours 13 min ago

Watch County Notification

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 15:44

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WWUS64 KBMX 232043
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 558
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
243 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALC005-081-087-113-232145-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 558 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

LEE MACON RUSSELL

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BARBOUR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUBURN…EUFAULA…OPELIKA…
PHENIX CITY AND TUSKEGEE.

$$

Categories: Weather

Severe Weather Threat Winding Down

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 15:38

Click image to enlarge..

The rain has ended at the Birmingham Airport and it appears that we will fall just short of one inch of rain today. 0.89 inches had fallen through 2:12 p.m Still, we are grateful for the beneficial rains and even more grateful that severe weather has not been widespread across the state.

It does appear that a tornado may have touched down in eastern Barbour County. A Tornado Debris Signature was evident on radar as the storm prepared to move into Georgia. Trees were reported down at Lakepoint Resort near Eufaula.

A tornado watch remains in effect for Southeast Alabama, but it will be cancelled for the Alabama counties shortly since the activity is now mostly into Georgia.

To the north, just a steady rain as the line passes. Not even any lightning over Northeast Alabama, as the airmass is more stable thanks to the persistent easterly wedge that prevailed yesterday.

As predicted, some clearing is evident on visible satellite imagery now over West Central Alabama. You will see some breaks in the clouds in the Birmingham Metro before sunset.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Barbour County (Possible TDS at 2:10)

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 15:00

This storm likely produced a tornado as it crossed the Chattahoochee River into Georgia around 2:10. Check out the Tornado Debris Signature from the Fort Rucker Radar.

It is evidenced by the low values (blues) on the correltaion coefficient panel (lower right panel on graphic).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 157 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR EUFAULA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE PARK AND TWIN SPRINGS.

Categories: Weather

Watch County Notification

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 14:54

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WWUS64 KBMX 231953
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 558
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
153 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

ALC011-101-109-232100-
/O.CAN.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 558 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 3 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

MONTGOMERY

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BULLOCK PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…MONTGOMERY…
TROY AND UNION SPRINGS.

$$

ALC005-081-087-113-240100-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.A.0558.000000T0000Z-141124T0100Z/

TORNADO WATCH 558 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

LEE MACON RUSSELL

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BARBOUR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUBURN…EUFAULA…OPELIKA…
PHENIX CITY AND TUSKEGEE.

$$

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Russell County

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 14:48

Radar indicated rotation approaching Seale in Russell County is the trigger for this tornado warning. It is moving in the direction of Phenix City.

This for panel radar image shows (from top left) 1. an inflow notch on the reflectivity display, 2. rotation on the strom relative velocity, 3. nothing on the correlation coefficient panel (where we would look for signs of tornadic debris) which would be confirmed by low values on 4. the differential reflectivity (indicative of tumbling debris).

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 215 PM CST

* AT 146 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SEALE…OR 11 MILES EAST OF
HURTSBORO…AND MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
PHENIX CITY…SEALE…RUSSELL COUNTY SPORTS COMPLEX…LADONIA…
PARKMANVILLE…PHENIX DRAG STRIP…CRAWFORD AND LADONIA SPORTS
COMPLEX.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR
THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3214 8523 3216 8530 3247 8522 3247 8506
3249 8506 3249 8499 3245 8499
TIME…MOT…LOC 1947Z 200DEG 40KT 3221 8523

$$

61

Categories: Weather

Rain/Storms Moving Northeastward

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 14:19

Well, as advertised rain and thunderstorms are pushing northeastward across much of Alabama on this Saturday afternoon.

Rain is overspreading the Birmingham Metro at this hour. But the storms are not severe.

So far there have been a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings in South Alabama and the NWS in Birmingham had to issue a tornado warning based on radar rotation for Barbour, Bullock and Pike Counties. No touchdown was reported and no tornado debris signature appeared on radar.

There is a tornado watch over Southeast Alabama where the best combination of instability and wind shear is present producing a threat for tornadoes.

Over Central Alabama, it is mainly just rain now with very little thunder. The support for the widespread rain (an upper level disturbance) is moving quickly northeast and is outrunning the instability that is lagging behind a bit. That’s good news, cause it means we may get out of this without any severe weather across Central Alabama.

To the south, the risk continues for areas south of a line from Atmore to Thomaston to Phenix City.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch for Southeast Alabama

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 13:35

The NWS has issued a tornado watch for areas south of I-85. It goes until 7 p.m. but the activity should be out of Alabama by 5 p.m.

Counties included are: Barbour, Bullock, Lee, Macon, Montgomery, Pike, Russell [AL] till 7:00 PM CST.

Cities included are Auburn, Eufaula, Montgomery, Opelika, Phenix City, Troy, Tuskegee and Union Springs.

The warm front is now as far north as Troy as evidenced by the jump in dewpoint in the last few minutes to 69F.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Barbour, Bullock and Pike in SE Alabama

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 13:20

Storms are starting to intensify over South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon.

This tornado warning is for radar indicated rotation along the Pike/Bullock/Barbour County line.

The NWS in Mobile has a severe thunderstorm warning in effect for Butler County around Greenville.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
WEST CENTRAL BARBOUR COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
CENTRAL BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 1245 PM CST

* AT 1216 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF BANKS…OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BRUNDIDGE…AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
MIDWAY…BOOT HILL…PICKETT…ABERFOIL…JOSIE…TANYARD…PEROTE
AND THREE NOTCH.

Categories: Weather

Watching Band of Storms Forming Over West Alabama

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 12:32

Showers and embedded thunderstorms are fairly widespread across North Central and East Central Alabama late this morning.

A band of storms over Southwest and South Alabama is the main concern for Central Alabama though as we head toward the afternoon hours.

That band extends from near Macon, MS to near Brewton in South Alabama. It appears to be a dryline feature and will serve to focus convection as it lifts northward. It should reach Tuscaloosa between 12:15-12:45 and Birmingham between 12:45 and 1:15.

The good news is that there is little if any surface based instability to provide fuel for the storms. But wind fields are strong, and any updrafts that do become surface based will have the potential to produce damaging winds. Further southeast, over Southeast Alabama into southwestern Georgia, there is more instability and conditions are favorable for a few tornadoes. The SPC is considering issuing a tornado watch for those areas.

The band of storms will continue to lift northward. Some of the storms might become severe, but we don’t expect many warnings across Central Alabama this afternoon. We will be watching conditions closely though in case they change.

Categories: Weather

Storms Lifting into Birmingham Metro

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 11:36

Thunderstorms over Bibb and western Chilton County are lifting north northeastward toward the Birmingham Metro at this hour. They will affect Shelby County between 10:40 – 11 a.m. and then move across Jefferson County between 11 – 11:45 a.m.

These storms are elevated, meaning their instability source is above the surface. That makes it hard for these storms to produce severe weather. But they will produce loud booming thunder that will shake the windows and very heavy rain as well as gusty winds.

Other storms are over Fayette County and over East Alabama over parts of Randolph, Tallapoosa, Lee and Chambers Counties.

There is a tremendous amount of wind shear over the area, but no surface based instability. The warm front, marking the edge of that instability is pushing northward through South Alabama It is north of Evergreen now, as evidenced by the 71F degree dewpoint there.

The new SPC Day One Outlook is out. It is basically unchanged with the slight risk in Alabama trimmed down slightly on its northern and western borders.

Categories: Weather

Quick Look at Alabama Weather Situation – 9:45 a.m.

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 10:45

Here is a quick look at the Alabama Weather Situation on this Sunday morning.

A dynamic weather system is affecting the Deep South and will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Alabama today, including a severe weather threat for parts of the area.

The upper level disturbance responsible for the active weather is west of Vicksburg MS this morning. You can clearly see it in the water vapor image in the lower left corner of the graphic. Click the graphic to enlarge it. I have shown the winds at 18,000 feet on that smaller panel as well. They are screaming at 70-90 knots over southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana.

The top left panel shows the surface low over western Louisiana with a warm front stretched along the Gulf Coast. It is onshore in South Alabama now, a little further north than the graphic indicates. It will continue to push north all day. The low will track northeast along with the upper level disturbance.

Showers and storms were continuing over southern Mississippi and were breaking out over South Alabama. These storms will spread north through the day. They will have lots of heavy rain and lightning and gusty winds. A few of them could become severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Here is the radar at 9:45. You can see lots of lightning already with these storms that are ahead of the warm front.

There is a small chance of a tornado south of a line from Jackson AL to Camden to Wetumpka to Lafayette. This line is the northward extent of the SPC Day One Severe Weather Outlook “slight” risk area, their standard severe weather forecast category. The best chance of a tornado is further southeast over Southeast Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Dothan is in this “enhanced” risk category, which is between slight and moderate in the SPC nomenclature.

Further north, for places like Demopolis, Tuscaloosa, Jasper, Birmingham, Clanton, Cullman, Talladega, Anniston and Gadsden, the storms will be loud with lots of lightning and thunder, heavy rain and gusty winds and there is chance a few of them could become severe with damaging winds being the main threat, but that chance is small. Can’t rule out a rogue tornado warning during the day in these areas though since helicity values showing low level spin in the atmosphere will be high by early afternoon across much of Central Alabama. But the storms don’t look like they will have much to work with in the way of instability, which makes severe weather way less likely.

We will track the warm front all day to see it’s progress. Storms along the warm front and any that develop behind it will have the best chances to become severe.

PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER TODAY: Have a reliable source for receiving warnings, like a Weatheradio or Smartphone app like MyWARN. Review your personal severe weather safety rules. There is a link at the top of the blog to a compendium of safety rules. Know where you will go quickly in case a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning is issued.

We will have frequent updates throughout the day on the blog.

Categories: Weather

The November 1950 Cold Wave

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 10:00

Alabamians paid little attention to the weather forecast on Thanksgiving morning, November 23, 1950. The Birmingham News carried a lead article about the many blessings of the day, including bountiful food, talking about the day’s candied yams, crisp white celery, plump olives and a golden brown roasted turkey. Headlines told of a Thanksgiving Eve crash between two Long Island Railroad trains in New York City that killed 76 people. There were hopes that the Korean War might be ending, bolstered by hints that China might be willing to sit down for peace talks. Over 36,000 people made their way to Legion Field for the annual Crippled Children’s Classic at Legion Field. The game featured the Phillips Red Raiders and Woodlawn Colonels. It would raise $95,000 for the new Crippled Children’s Hospital. As the game kicked off at 2 p.m., the temperature at the Birmingham Airport was a balmy 70 degrees.

The fine holiday weather belied the fact that a major cold wave was overspreading the U.S. east of the Rockies. Birmingham’s official weatherman, Charles Bradley, warned that the mild afternoon and nice weather was going to be followed by a quick turn to winter. The afternoon highs near 70 would be replaced with overnight lows in the 30s. Highs the following day would remain steady or fall. Fans in shirt sleeves at Legion Field got a rude awakening when the temperature fell into the 50s by the fourth quarter of a 20-0 Phillips victory. By late evening, readings were in the lower 40s with a north wind averaging over 20 mph. To the north, it was getting interesting. It was 18F in Nashville with heavy snow. It was 25F in Memphis with moderate snow and a north wind averaging over 30 mph. The snow was reaching Northwest Alabama.

By 6:30 a.m. on Friday morning, it was down to 32F at Birmingham with snow. Four inches of snow was on the ground at Tuscumbia. An inch was on the ground in the Magic City. Roads were hazardous all over North Alabama. Dozens of accidents were being reported. By late morning, US-31 was impassable as far south as Clanton. By 10:30 a.m., the mercury had plummeted further, to 21F at the Birmingham Airport.

The Alabama Crimson Tide football team boarded a charter plane at the Birmingham Airport, bound for Jacksonville and a Saturday tilt with Florida. With two losses, Alabama needed a victory to seal a major bowl bid. Tennessee was already paired with Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Kentucky coach Paul Bryant was preparing his Wildcats for a Sugar Bowl date with Oklahoma in New Orleans. The Birmingham News carried rumors that the Bear might be nosing around for a job in Texas, while mentioning that Alabama was his alma mater.

In his afternoon forecast, the weatherman was calling for an overnight low between 12-15F. Good thing for Mr. Bradley that the three degree guarantee had not been invented, because with screaming cold air advection, the temperature would already be at 15 by midnight, on the way to a low of 5F. It is the coldest November reading ever in Birmingham. The second coldest November reading ever is 13F, underscoring the significance of the record. Fresh snow would fall across the northern half of the state on Saturday as the Great Appalachian Storm spun up over Ohio.

JB would call it a cold wave. I call it just another story from the pages of this week in weather history.

Categories: Weather

Storms Today, Colder Tuesday

Sun, 11/23/2014 - 08:09

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Parts of Alabama awoke to some showers stretching from just north of Tuscaloosa to Mt. Cheaha around daybreak. Rainfall in these showers was fairly light with reported rainfall amounts between a tenth of an inch and a quarter of an inch. A surface low well to our west over Texas and Oklahoma along with a vigorous short wave trough at 500 millibars will move rapidly to the Great Lakes area by early Monday. This will generate a large area of rain and thunderstorms currently seen in the radar images just off the coast of Louisiana.

Current model data is consistent with what we saw yesterday keeping the greatest instability generally south of the Birmingham area into the early afternoon. Storms will be fast moving, so damaging wind along with isolated tornadoes and heavy rain appear to be the greatest threats. With this fast moving system, the greatest threat appears to come between about 10 am and 6 pm.

Monday becomes a transition day as the fast moving system exits the region but the coldest air does not arrive until Tuesday. The upper level trough will dig into the Central US on Tuesday as another short wave moves through the base of the upper trough. So Tuesday will be a chilly day with lows in the middle and upper 30s and highs only in the 50s.

With a sharp upper trough in place at midweek, the chilly air will stay with us into Thanksgiving with highs only in the 50s. Typical highs for late November in Central Alabama are in the lower 60s so our highs will be about 10 degrees off of that mark. Lows are usually in the lower 40s and we’ll be seeing lows in the 30s, again about 7 to 10 degrees below usual values.

The upper air pattern becomes more zonal for us for the latter part of the week so I expect to see temperatures moderate slowly with highs by Saturday in the lower 60s. We should stay dry with just some passing clouds for the latter half of the week ahead.

Looking into week 2, the pattern continues to be active with another system around the 3rd/4th of December and another around the 8th.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Stay up with the latest weather information here as this system unfolds. Stay dry and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

An Update on the Severe Weather Situation for Tomorrow

Sat, 11/22/2014 - 22:05

After a very nice late fall Saturday across Central Alabama today with highs in the upper 60s to near 70F and lots of sunshine, thin high clouds are overspreading the area this evening. The clouds are patchy, so you can still see some stars through them. Temperatures are still mild, running around 60F. But the air has a crisp feel to it with dewpoints still in the 40s.

Click to enlarge

In fact, the dewpoint at Anniston is only 40F, while amazingly, the dewpoint at Atlanta is an incredible 28F. That’s really dry. The dewpoints are shown in the large graphic on the right side above.

The reason is that Alabama is still under the influence of an easterly wedge of drier air invading the state from the east thanks to high pressure off the Atlantic Coast, reinforcing the drier air. You can see the surface weatehr map in the bottom left of panel of the graphic.

The wedge will be a limiting factor in our unfolding severe weather threat for tomorrow, at least for Central Alabama.

First, let me say there is no threat for severe weather tonight across Central Alabama. The main threat will come between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Sunday.

A very strong upper level disturbance is approaching Dallas tonight. That will be our primary weathermaker over the next 36 hours.

Can’t rule out patches of light rain or showers after midnight tonight through the morning hours across Central Alabama. There could be an isolated heavy shower or even a storm during the morning hours ahead of the main area of rain and storms, but this activity will be isolated.

Widespread showers and storms will enter Southwest Alabama Sunday morning and push northeast. Should reach the Birmingham area by early afternoon. These storms should be elevated, and not surface based, so their main impact will be very heavy rain and loud thunder. But, with a strong mid level wind maximum passing overhead, there could be some damaging wind reports. This will all be between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. from southwest to northeast.

The low level helicity will be maximized during the early afternoon, so it is good that there should not be much surface based instability.

The storms should weaken as they push deeper into the more stable air.

BOTTOM LINE: There is a severe weather threat generally south of a line from Reform to Tuscaloosa to Montevallo to Goodwater. The Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook for Sunday is shown in the top left panel of the graphic above. The main threat will be damaging winds. To the north of the slight risk area defined by the SPC, the threat lessens the further north you go. But isolated storms are still possible during the afternoon hours in places like Jasper, Cullman, Birmingham, Pell City, Gadsden and Anniston.

There is a tornado threat closer to the coast and we can’t rule out an isolated tornado with the activity lifting north, so we will be watching.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY: Some sunshine will break out during the late afternoon as sinking air behind the disturbance clear the sky. The air will actually become more unstable, but there shouldn’t be enough lift for storms to form. There could be a few late afternoon showers though. Sunday evening should be mainly dry. The main cold front will arrive early Monday morning, quickly pushing temperatures into the 50s for the day.

Categories: Weather

Nice Today, Stormy Tomorrow

Sat, 11/22/2014 - 14:39

It has been a terrific day of weather across the state. Mainly sunny conditions with mild temperatures as every location across the state is in the 60s or 70s. For the rest of today and tonight, expect clouds to be increasing and there will be a threat for some scattered showers to develop. Lows tonight should remain in the lower 50s.

Showers and storms are expected to impact Alabama through the morning and into the early afternoon hours tomorrow. The latest day two convective outlook from the SPC has removed the “enhanced” risk for severe weather out of Alabama, but the southern 2/3 of the state remains in a “slight” risk. This risk area extends almost as far north as the Interstate 20 corridor.

The main feature will are watching is the warm front that will lift north from the Gulf of Mexico tonight. Depending on how far north this feature makes it will determine how far north the severe weather threat extends. Nevertheless, expect widespread numerous showers and storms tomorrow, with the threat of strong and severe storms, especially the farther south you go. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the greatest concern, but we should also see heavy rainfall in areas as well. By late tomorrow, the bulk of the storms will be out of here with just some lingering showers by tomorrow night. This system should give most of the area a decent soaking, and we expect around one inch over North Central Alabama with 2-3 inches over South Alabama.

Categories: Weather

Dry Today, Stormy Sunday

Sat, 11/22/2014 - 08:01

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Surface high pressure centered over the Outer Banks area of North Carolina will allow our flow to come around our of the south today allowing temperatures to warm up into the middle 60s. Clouds will be on the increase ahead of the next weather system which will be affecting us primarily on Sunday, so most activities will be fine and dry today.

For football interests, it is a big game for the UAB Blazers as they host Marshall at Legion Field with an 11:00 am kickoff. Clouds will increase during the game, but the weather will remain dry. Temperatures will rise from near 61 at kickoff to near 65 by the fourth quarter. In Tuscaloosa, it is homecoming for Alabama versus Western Carolina with kickoff at 3:00 pm. The sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 68 degrees falling to near 60 by the fourth quarter. And the Auburn Tigers will host the Samford Bulldogs this evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium. The 6:00 pm kickoff will be mostly cloudy but should be dry with the temperatures in the mid 50s dropping to the lower 50s by the fourth quarter.

A strong short wave trough coming out of the southern Rockies tonight and Sunday will generate a surface low over East Texas that should move to near Jonesboro, AR, by Sunday midday. This sets the stage for severe weather potential over the Southeast US for Sunday especially along the immediate Gulf Coast. However, there is a question as to how far north the instability will reach. Both the GFS and Hi-Res NAM keep the greatest severe weather threat generally along and south of the US 80 corridor. It appears that the threat will be a mixed bag including damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. We’ll have to watch the development of this system closely to see just how far north the instability will spread.

The short wave moves quickly northeastward Sunday evening taking the surface low up into the Great Lakes and bringing the cold front through Central Alabama. The main rain threat should be over by Sunday evening or early Monday morning, however, we could see some wrap around moisture into Monday. But the greatest rainfalls of 1 to 2 inches will come during the day Sunday.

The upper air pattern features a long wave trough over the Central US through much of the week ahead, so we stay cool and below climatological values for our highs and lows as we go into Thanksgiving. Highs by Thanksgiving should climb into the lower 60s. Our 30-year average highs are around 63 and lows around 42.

Looking out to voodoo, the weather pattern remains pretty active with another wet system around December 1st and another around the 7th. Looks like things will remain busy in the weather department.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I plan to have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Highest Severe Weather Risk Sunday To The South

Fri, 11/21/2014 - 16:40

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FABULOUS FRIDAY: What beautiful day… lots of sunshine and temperatures well up in the 60s across the great state of Alabama this afternoon. Our weather will stay dry tonight; most communities will see a low in the low 40s early tomorrow, but colder pockets go into the 30s again.

TOMORROW: The sky will feature more clouds than sun, but the day should be dry. Cooler air will slip into East Alabama; places like Anniston, Gadsden, Heflin, Centre, and Fort Payne won’t get out of the 50s, but low to mid 60s are likely over the western half of the state.

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY SUNDAY: A negative tilt upper trough will bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southern half of the state. The last few runs of the high resolution NAM continue to show very little surface based instability across North Alabama, so despite favorable dynamics the severe weather threat looks pretty low. Highest chance of severe weather will come south of U.S. 80, or south of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika.

A few storms over South Alabama Sunday could produce damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two is certainly possible with a high amount of low level bulk shear. The core severe weather threat for the southern part of the state will come roughly from 6:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m.

Rain amounts around one inch are likely for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden… amounts of over two inches are possible across the southern third of the state.

NEXT WEEK: The weather trends colder. A cold front Monday will bring only an outside risk of a shower, then our weather looks rain-free Tuesday through the following weekend (November 25-30). The coldest days should come on Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tonight; some clouds around (but no rain) with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Tomorrow is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 56 degrees at kickoff, and low 50s by the fourth quarter. There is a small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Storms Return Late This Weekend

Fri, 11/21/2014 - 07:31

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

DRY THROUGH TOMORROW: Alabama’s weather will stay relatively quiet through tomorrow; we reach the low 60s today with a mix of sun and clouds. We note some light rain near Memphis early this morning; I guess a sprinkle or two is possible across the Tennessee Valley later today, but most places will stay dry across the state.

Clouds will increase tomorrow, but the day should remain dry. We will have a cold air damming type situation; a cold surface high will be over the mid Atlantic coast, and will keep the eastern counties of the state cooler. Places like Anniston and Gadsden won’t get out of the 50s, and some communities near the Georgia border will see a high only in the low 50s. But, for Central and West Alabama, the high will be at or just over 60 degrees.

TO THE WEST: Thunderstorms will break out tomorrow over Southeast Texas, where there is an “enhanced” severe weather risk defined by SPC. An MCS (mesoscale convective system) type feature will likely move along the Gulf Coast after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, and will bring heavy rain to places like New Orleans and Mobile, along with the risk of strong thunderstorm winds and maybe even an isolated tornado or two. The core severe weather risk for the Alabama Gulf Coast region will come from 3 a.m. until 9 a.m. Sunday.

DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY: SPC has the standard “slight” risk of severe weather up for the southern part of Alabama, generally south of U.S. 80 (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika), with a “marginal” risk as far north as I-20.

For our part of the state, there are still some unanswered questions concerning this event. No doubt Sunday will be wet at times with occasional showers and thunderstorms. Showers are a good possibility after midnight Saturday night into Sunday morning, but the heavier rain and best chance of strong storms will remain well to the south.

It is possible we have a break in the rain during the midday hours, and temperatures will climb toward the low 70s Sunday afternoon, making the air somewhat unstable with surface based CAPE values rising to 500-1,000 j/kg over North/Central Alabama. If additional storms can form Sunday afternoon in this environment, they could be strong, but the higher shear values by then are over in Georgia.

BOTTOM LINE: The higher risk of severe weather Sunday is over South Alabama, with a marginal threat up to I-20. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 1 inches are likely for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden, with amounts of 2-3 inches possible over the far southern part of the state. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details, and keep an eye on the blog for potential forecast changes since some uncertainty remains.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tonight; some clouds around (but no rain) with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Tomorrow is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 56 degrees at kickoff, and low 50s by the fourth quarter. There is a small risk of a shower by the fourth quarter.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday, and it might squeeze out a shower or two, but for now the chance of really significant rain looks low. Then, the weather looks basically cool and dry for the rest of the week with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Tuesday through Friday. We have noted some global model runs have suggested colder temperatures (40s and 20s) by Thanksgiving, but the latest GFS has backed off on the degree of cooling. Dry weather will most likely last into the following weekend (November 29-30), meaning the weather looks pretty good for the Iron Bowl at this point.

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Categories: Weather

Storms Return Before The Weekend Ends

Thu, 11/20/2014 - 16:13

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today; I am at the “Taste of Trussville” at the Trussville Civic Center, live on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5 and 6:00**

PLEASANT NOVEMBER AFTERNOON: As advertised, the warming trend is continuing. We have a few spots up in the low 60s this afternoon with sunshine through scattered clouds…

Expect a similar day tomorrow, with a mix of sun and clouds, and a high in the low 60s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The sky becomes mostly cloudy Saturday, but the day will remain dry. The eastern counties of the state won’t get out of the 50s Saturday, but low to mid 60s are possible over Central and West Alabama Saturday afternoon.

TO THE WEST: Strong to severe storms will erupt Saturday afternoon over Southeast Texas and parts of South Louisiana, and those storms will move into Alabama after midnight Saturday night. We do note the NAM model tries to bring showers up into Central Alabama as early as 9 p.m. Saturday, and we will introduce an outside risk of a shower for the fourth quarter of the Auburn/Samford football game. But, the main action comes much later.

SUNDAY: Still looks like an active weather day with showers and storms likely, especially during the morning hours. Seems like the main window initially for rain and storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Sunday; severe weather will be possible over the southern quarter of Alabama where some surfaced based instability will be available. The primary threat of severe storms will be south of a line from Grove Hill to Greenville to Eufaula. Storms down that way could produce strong winds, and an isolated tornado or two is not out of the question.

There is excellent dynamic support for thunderstorms over North Alabama with high bulk shear values (over 35 knots) and a very strong low level jet (over 60 knots), but with no surface based instability it will be hard for severe storms to get going.

A dry slot works into Alabama during the midday hours Sunday as the rain moves east, and we have potential of seeing temperatures in the 70s Sunday afternoon with some sunshine. This will actually make the air pretty unstable, and we will be watching for signs of any redevelopment late Sunday afternoon… if storms can fire up then, they could be strong statewide. Remains to be seen if that can happen, however, and most models discount that idea.

We will continue to keep a close eye on model trends in coming days as the event gets closer.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through Monday with some risk of a shower; the 12Z GFS brings in the idea of showers on Tuesday as the upper trough passes overhead, and we will insert that risk into the public forecast. Then, Wednesday through Friday next week look dry but chilly; highs drop into the 40s, with lows in the 20s by Thanksgiving Day.

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Categories: Weather

Slow Warm-Up Continues; Rain By Sunday

Thu, 11/20/2014 - 07:44

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PRE-DAWN SHAKER: A magnitude 3.8 earthquake is the headline to start the day; it was centered in Greene County, about 30 miles southwest of Tuscaloosa, at 4:25 a.m. CT…

The quake was fairly shallow (3.1 miles), and while we did receive a number of reports close to the epicenter, seems like very few people felt it in Tuscaloosa (of course, most slept through it). No damage reported.

WARM-UP CONTINUES: No rain for Alabama through tomorrow; we expect a partly sunny sky with upper 50s today, and low 60s tomorrow.

SATURDAY: A 1031 mb high will be centered around Virginia Beach, and that will nose into Alabama from the east. It should set up a thermal gradient; those near the Georgia border won’t get out of the 50s Saturday afternoon, which Central and West Alabama should see a high in the 60s. Clouds will increase during the day, but the weather stays dry.

TO THE WEST: A dynamic storm system will bring the risk of severe weather to much of Southeast Texas, and into Louisiana later in the day. These storms will enter West Alabama after midnight Saturday night.

SEVERE WEATHER? Not much change in our thinking; the prime threat of severe weather with this system will be near the Gulf Coast, and perhaps up to 100 miles inland. The air will be cool and stable over the northern half of the state, and with no surface based instability, for now we don’t expect any severe weather issues for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

However, to the south, surface based CAPE values could rise to near 1,000 j/kg near the Gulf Coast, and with a strong low level jet (over 50 knots) and a decent amount of low level bulk shear (over 30 knots), a few tornadoes are not out of the question near the coast. In Alabama, the primary threat of severe storms will come from about 2:00 a.m. until 10:00 a.m. Sunday, and mostly south of a line from Grove Hill to Monroeville to Greenville to Eufaula.

Rain amounts around one inch are likely over North/Central Alabama, with totals in the 2-3 inch range near the Gulf Coast.

There is a chance the sun breaks out Sunday afternoon after the storms thanks to dry slot moving into the state, which could very well push temperatures into the low to mid 70s.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: A cold front will pass through the state Monday, and could trigger a shower or two, but it certainly doesn’t look like a big rain event, and many places will be dry. Temperatures should rise into the 60s Monday before the front comes through. Then, the rest of the week looks cool and dry. The high Tuesday will drop into the 50s, and we will have a hard time getting out of the 40s Wednesday. For Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, we are projecting highs in the 50s, and lows in the 30s. The cool, dry weather should linger into the following weekend. For now weather for the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa looks rain-free. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Very nice weather for the high school football games across North/Central Alabama tomorrow night; mostly fair with temperatures falling from 53 at kickoff, into the mid to upper 40s by the final whistle.

Saturday is homecoming at the Capstone in Tuscaloosa, and for the football game (Alabama vs Western Carolina) that kicks off at 3:00 p.m.. the sky will become mostly cloudy during the game, but the weather should be dry. Expect a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling to near 58 by the fourth quarter. Pretty comfortable, especially compared to last weekend.

Auburn will host the Samford Bulldogs Saturday evening at Jordan-Hare Stadium (6p CT kickoff)… mostly cloudy with 57 degrees at kickoff, and low to mid 50s by the fourth quarter. No rain expected.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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Categories: Weather