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Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 15:46

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: A classic case of “scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms” across the great state of Alabama this afternoon…

Showers are moving northeast, and should settle down later tonight.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Not much change in the overall weather tomorrow and Sunday. Mixed sun and clouds, highs in the low to mid 80s, and the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the moist airmass over the state. While the best chance of a shower or storm will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a nighttime or morning shower as well. Some of the afternoon storms that form will be strong.

SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT? A vigorous weather system will bring the risk of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to Alabama early next week. A deep upper trough will support a surface low that will run from northern Arkansas to near Chicago. We expect a line of severe storms in here Monday night with potential for damaging winds, and maybe even an isolated small tornado or two. The low level jet (winds around 5,000 feet off the ground) will feature a core of 60-70 knots over North Alabama, and it won’t take too much to get some of that down to the surface.

The latest (12Z) GFS is a tad faster, suggest the main window for the line of storms to be from about 7:00 p.m. Monday through 4:00 a.m. Tuesday. Ahead of the storms, Monday will be warm and windy with a high in the 80s.

Much cooler and drier air will follow the storms Tuesday, and the rest of the week looks great with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. We should drop into the 40s by early Wednesday and Thursday morning.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; scattered showers and storms are possible during the games, especially during the first half. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Tomorrow, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 84 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming tomorrow; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 84 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm, but rain will not be widespread.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the my Weather Xtreme video here by Monday morning at 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Big Changes Early Next Week

Fri, 10/10/2014 - 06:16

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Alabama’s weather won’t change much through the weekend; an upper ridge will keep highs in the 80s through Sunday, and there will be sufficient moisture for the daily risk of scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms mainly along and north of I-20. The southern half of Alabama will remain warm and mostly dry.

We do note SPC has a low end five percent severe weather possibility defined over North Alabama today and tonight, so where storms do form they could be strong.

NEXT WEEK: A long wave, vigorous upper trough will impact our state early next week, setting up the potential for strong to severe storms by Monday night. A deep surface low will be over Arkansas late Monday, with a tight pressure gradient in place across the state. This means Monday will be warm, breezy day before the storms arrive.

The main limiting factor for severe weather is the lack of surface based instability (CAPE values under 750 j/kg), and the lack of dry air in the mid levels. But, we all know we can have some pretty rough storms around here in the cool season even with marginal surface based CAPE values.

The low level jet (around 5,000 feet) will be screaming, with winds in excess of 60 knots forecast over North Alabama.

The latest GFS runs suggest a squall line will move through the state with potential for damaging straight line winds, and maybe even an embedded tornado since low level bulk shear values will very high. The main window for this line will come from about 9:00 p.m. Monday through 6:00 a.m. Tuesday. We will keep a close eye on model runs over the weekend and make adjustments in this forecast as needed.

Cooler, drier air will follow the storms Tuesday, and we should drop into the 40s by Wednesday and Thursday morning. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; widely scattered showers and storms are possible from Birmingham north during the games, with dry conditions south of Birmingham. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

Tomorrow, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 84 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming tomorrow; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 84 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm, but rain will not be widespread.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: A disturbance northeast of Puerto Rico is getting better organized, and could become a tropical storm, or a sub-tropical storm over the weekend. It will recurve harmlessly into the open Atlantic and is no threat to land. The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be at a UAB safety fair today on their campus… and tonight I will be speaking at an event at the Cullman Civic Center. But I will have time to crank out an afternoon Weather Xtreme video; it will be posted here by 4:00… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Warm Days; Scattered Storms

Thu, 10/09/2014 - 15:12

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today… I am live at the site of the Pig Iron Barbecue challenge at the Hoover Met on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, and 6:00**

WARM WEATHER CONTINUES: Alabama’s weather will remain unseasonably warm through the weekend with highs in the 80s. And, the air will be moist and rather unstable, so each day we will have the risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms. They will be more numerous along and north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), and mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

If you are south of I-20, the weather will be generally rain-free through Sunday with very warm afternoons.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: Models continue to show a setup for potentially severe thunderstorms across Alabama Monday night into early Tuesday morning, with a deep upper trough moving in from the west, and a surface low forming northwest of the state…

The latest data from the GFS hints the main risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will come from about 4:00 p.m. Monday through 4:00 a.m. Tuesday. And, a setup when all modes of severe weather are possible, including a few tornadoes. But, remember this event is still several days away and things could change. The good news is that it looks like beneficial rain will be possible, with some places seeing over one inch of rain. Then, cooler and drier air returns Tuesday night though mid-week.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; a few isolated showers are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, tomorrow night, widely scattered showers and storms are possible from Birmingham north during the games, with dry conditions south of Birmingham. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms are likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warms Days; A Few Scattered Storms

Thu, 10/09/2014 - 06:09

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

HIGHS STAY IN THE 80s: An upper ridge building into Alabama from the southwest will keep us unseasonably warm through the weekend, with temperatures almost ten degrees above average for mid-October. And, like summer, the air will be moist and somewhat unstable, meaning we will have some risk of scattered showers and storms on daily basis. The best chance of them will be along and north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston), and during the afternoon and evening hours.

ON THE MAPS: A surface boundary will be lifting northward today as a warm front, and then tomorrow a cold front will sag southward into Tennessee. This should mean the most numerous showers and storms over the next few days will be close to the Tennessee border, with the activity becoming more widely spaced as you work your way to the south. For places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston, the chance of any one spot seeing a shower is about one in three each day through Sunday, with higher odds to the north.

NEXT WEEK: A long wave upper trough is forecast to develop west of our state, and as that approaches showers and storms become more widespread statewide early in the week; the 00Z GFS hints the main rain event will come late Monday, Monday night, into Tuesday morning, with potential for over one inch statewide. Also, we could very well be dealing with strong to severe thunderstorms since this system will have excellent upper support, and a surface low just northwest of Alabama.

A nice surge of cooler, drier air follows the rain for Tuesday night and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight; a few isolated showers or storms are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, tomorrow night, widely scattered showers and storms are possible from Birmingham north during the games, with dry conditions south of Birmingham. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; a passing shower or thunderstorm is possible during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). The weather will be cool and wet with rain and storms are likely…. temperatures will hover in the mid to upper 50s during the game. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a passing shower or thunderstorm.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: NHC is monitoring a disturbance north of the Leeward Islands; it has some potential for slow development this weekend and early next week, but it will most likely recurve into the Atlantic if anything happens to form there.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Busy day ahead… I will be at the annual community awareness day in downtown Birmingham this morning, then I will be live from the Pig Iron BBQ event at the Hoover Met on ABC 33/40 at 4, 5, and 6:00… then I will be at the “Hoops on the Haasephalt” event at UAB this evening that is the basketball season kickoff event. Not sure I will have time to post an afternoon video, but I will have forecast notes here by 4:00. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Evening Radar Check

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 19:10

A boundary over the northern part of the state is the focal point for convection this evening. We have seen a few severe storms, but at this time, none of the storms are severe. However, these storms are packing a punch as they are producing intense lightning, very heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and some hail.

The storms are tracking towards the southeast, and will persist for a few more hours. The bulk of the activity has been north of Interstate 20, and that is where it will stay the next few hours, but areas east of Interstate 65 could see storms impact areas south of I-20.

Click image to enlarge.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 5:15 PM

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 16:52

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTH CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 451 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FALKVILLE…OR 10
MILES SOUTH OF HARTSELLE…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
WEST POINT AND BATTLEGROUND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…LARGE HAIL…DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Warning Cullman County until 6:15 PM

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 16:21

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTH CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 420 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
FALKVILLE…VINEMONT…EVA…MASSEY…COLE SPRINGS…
BATTLEGROUND…LACON AND DANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 4:15 PM

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 15:46

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTH CENTRAL CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 345 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FALKVILLE…OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF HARTSELLE…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CULLMAN…FALKVILLE…VINEMONT…WEST POINT…MASSEY…COLE
SPRINGS…BATTLEGROUND AND LACON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE LARGE HAIL…DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS
QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

Categories: Weather

Warm With Widely Spaced Showers

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 15:04

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Not much to show on radar this afternoon; the sky is partly sunny and temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s. We do note a few strong storms on the Mississippi River south of Memphis; those could creep into Northwest Alabama early tonight….

If the storms do hang on and move through North Alabama tonight, they could be fairly strong; SPC maintains low end 5 percent severe weather possibilities.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The weather stays warm with highs in the mid 80s; upper 80s are possible in spots. That is about ten degrees above average for mid-October in Alabama. A warm front will push northward through here tomorrow and could trigger a few showers or storms, but they should be widely spaced.

Then, on Friday, a cold front will sag down into Tennessee and become stationary Friday night somewhere near or just south of I-40. Scattered showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon and Friday night; they will be most numerous north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden), but a few are possible as far south as I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston).

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: South of Birmingham, the weekend will be warm and dry with highs in the 80s. But, from Birmingham north, we will mention a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms both days as the front will hang tough just the north of the Alabama/Tennessee state line. The chance of any one spot seeing a shower or storm along and north of I-20 both days is about one in three.

NEXT WEEK: A strong upper trough will bring a much better chance of rain and storms statewide by Monday afternoon and Monday night; there might even be a few strong storms involved with good upper support. Then, cooler and drier arrives Tuesday through mid-week. More details are on the Weather Xtreme video along with all of the maps and graphics.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night; a few isolated showers are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, on Friday night, widely scattered showers and storms are possible from Birmingham north during the games, with dry conditions south of Birmingham. Temperatures will fall through the 70s.

On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; just a slight risk of a brief shower or storm during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). Showers and storms are a good possibility, mainly during the first half of the game. The temperature will drop from near 65 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. We can’t rule out a brief passing shower or thunderstorm.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: All is quiet for now across the Atlantic basin, and tropical storm formation is not expected through Friday.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing the 2nd graders today at Grantswood Community School in Irondale; be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Categories: Weather

Warm Days Through The Weekend

Wed, 10/08/2014 - 06:22

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FULL ECLIPSE OF THE MOON: It has been an early morning of sky watching; totality started at 5:25a CT. Here is a look from Helena… photo from @charnita

Our friends up in Northeast Alabama aren’t able to see the eclipse due to clouds and scattered showers; the clouds thin out as you work your way to the south. The moon has now set and is below the horizon at daybreak.

THE DAY AHEAD: For much of Alabama, the day will be warm and dry with a partly sunny sky and a high in the 80s. The upper trough over the eastern U.S. is lifting out, and is being replaced by an upper ridge centered on the Gulf Coast. However, the high resolution HRRR model does show a band of showers and storms moving into North Alabama late this afternoon and early tonight, and we will insert that potential into the forecast. The highest risk of a shower or storm will be north of I-20 (Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Anniston).

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Warm is the word… highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, about ten degrees above average for early October. A warm front lifting north tomorrow afternoon could kick off a few scattered showers; like recent days the highest risk of a shower will be north of Birmingham. Then, on Friday, much of the day will be dry, although a few showers and storms could creep down into North Alabama late in the day or Friday night ahead of a cold front over Tennessee.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The front over Tennessee will become stationary. The southern half of the state will remain warm and dry, but we will mention the risk of scattered showers and storms over North Alabama, especially north of Birmingham. The weather stays warm with highs in the mid 80s.

Showers and storms should increase Monday of next week as an upper trough approaches from the west; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tomorrow night; a few isolated showers are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, on Friday night, most stadiums will be dry with only a slight risk of a brief evening shower. Again, temperatures will fall through the 70s with a mostly fair sky.

On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; just a slight risk of a brief shower or storm during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). Showers and storms are a good possibility, mainly during the first half of the game. The temperature will drop from near 65 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. Only a small risk of a shower during this game.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: A disturbance over the far southwest Caribbean remains disorganized, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week in the Atlantic basin.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program today at Grantswood Community School in Irondale… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Warm October Weather

Tue, 10/07/2014 - 15:50

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Showers and storms that were over the Tennessee Valley region of North Alabama earlier today have moved out of the state, and there is basically nothing on radar at mid-afternoon; quite the contrast to the radar images we had at this time yesterday. Temperatures are generally in the low 80s with a partly sunny sky.

REST OF THE WEEK: The large scale upper trough that was over the eastern U.S. will weaken and lift out, and a ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to build, meaning unseasonably warm weather. We expect highs mostly in the mid 80s, although some spots could reach the upper 80s; each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds.

There will be enough moisture for a shower or two each day in spots, but they will be pretty widely spaced. The GFS hints the best coverage of showers or storms will come on Thursday as a warm front lifts northward. Even then it will a “hit and miss” proposition. Many communities will be dry tomorrow through Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A cold front to the north will stall out over Tennessee. On Saturday, the best chance of showers will be close to the Tennessee border; most of the state will be warm and dry with a high in the 80s. The front will sag a little southward Sunday and Monday, with a better chance of showers and storms on these two days. But, they will be scattered in nature, and some places won’t see very much rain. The high Sunday will be in the low to mid 80s, but Monday’s high will be closer to 80 degrees.

Keep in mind October is our driest month of the year, so getting a good, widespread, soaking rain event this time of the year can be difficult. Synoptic scale rain events increase in November and December as we get into the late fall tornado season.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games Thursday night; a few isolated showers are possible during the first half, otherwise mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s. Then, on Friday night, most stadiums will be dry with only a slight risk of a brief evening shower. Again, temperatures will fall through the 70s with a mostly fair sky.

On Saturday, Auburn will take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville (2:30p kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature near 85 degrees; just a slight risk of a brief shower or storm during the game. Temperatures will fall to near 80 degrees by the final whistle.

Alabama will be on the road as well; they play Arkansas at Fayetteville (5:00p kickoff). Showers and storms are a good possibility, mainly during the first half of the game. The temperature will drop from near 65 degrees at kickoff, into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Take the rain gear.

UAB will celebrate homecoming Saturday; the Blazers host North Texas (2:30p kickoff) at Legion Field. The sky will be partly sunny, and temperatures will fall from near 85 degrees at kickoff to around 80 by the fourth quarter. Only a small risk of a shower during this game.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Delightful weather for the big event at Gulf Shores Thursday through Sunday. Mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

TROPICS: A disturbance over the far southwest Caribbean has come potential for slow development by the weekend. Some global models move this up into the southern Gulf of Mexico next week; see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing the residents at St. Martins In The Pines today… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Scud or Cold Air Funnel?

Tue, 10/07/2014 - 07:13

I received literally hundreds of images of this creepy cloud over Cullman late yesterday afternoon…

No doubt this was not a tornado, but is it a scud cloud? Or, a cold air funnel?

Scud clouds can look like a tornado or funnel cloud, but they are harmless. Scud clouds are not attached to large-scale storm rotation. They are caused by cold air outflow interacting with warmth ahead of the storm. This causes air to rise and condense. While these clouds often hang low under the base, they don’t indicate anything other than wind blowing out of the storm.

Cold air funnels are most commonly observed in the vicinity of a closed off, cold-core mid level low, or upper trough (there was a large scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. yesterday with very cold air aloft over Alabama). The cold air aloft associated with these features is how cold air funnels get their name. However the cold air aloft only provides instability for convection, it does not govern how the funnel clouds form. The upper rotation associated with the upper low provides an environment rich with vorticity, or “spin”. It is believed that within this spinning environment, localized areas of higher vorticity exist. Thanks to the cold air aloft, updrafts are able to develop and stretch the vorticity in the environment. Stretching of vorticity creates a column of rapidly-spinning air, and it is believed that this may lead to the development of a funnel cloud. Cold air funnels come from high based storms, and rarely touch the ground.

The NWS does not issue tornado warnings for cold air funnels.

From all of the reports received, many said there was no rotation. Some did report slow, erratic rotation. Sure seems like this was scud to me. But, we will keep looking at data and reports.

Bottom line is that this was not a tornado, and there was never danger of a tornado from the storm due to the high based nature of the thunderstorm (LCL heights over 1,000 meters). Hail was the big issue, and there was plenty of that…

Categories: Weather

Higher Risk Of Storms Stays North

Tue, 10/07/2014 - 06:18

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: The last batch of storms has moved out of Northeast Alabama at daybreak, and the weather is relatively quiet across Alabama with temperatures generally in the 60s.

LATER TODAY: The cold core, upper trough remains over the eastern third of the nation, and another wave rotating through the base of the trough is expected to kick off more showers and storms over North Alabama later this morning, but the high resolution HRRR model hints those storms will be mainly over the Tennessee Valley (below is model output valid at 11a CT)…

The bottom line is that the risk of rain now looks small today for places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham and Anniston… highest risk of a shower or storm will be along and north of U.S. 278 (Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden).

We will see a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures should reach the low 80s this afternoon.

REST OF THE WEEK: A relatively moist air mass will remain in place, so we can’t rule out a few widely scattered showers or storms tomorrow and Thursday, but widespread rain is not expected. The sky will be partly sunny with a high up in the mid 80s.

Friday looks generally warm and dry; temperatures will rise into the mid 80s again, with potential even for upper 80s in a few spots. A cold front to the north will bring a risk of showers and storms to Kentucky and Tennessee, but new model guidance hints that front will stall out around I-40 in Tennessee, well to the north of Alabama. This means there is a pretty good chance we won’t have to deal with rain for the high school football games Friday night, with the exception of stadiums up near the Tennessee border.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: With the front stalling out over Tennessee, it looks now like the weekend will be mostly dry and warm for North/Central Alabama. Showers are possible mainly over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama; afternoon highs will remain very warm for October, with mid 80s likely Saturday and Sunday. The GFS does show the front nudging down to the south Monday of next week, with a better chance of showers and storms down to I-20, but the activity will be scattered. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: All remains quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. The GFS continues to show some Gulf of Mexico mischief in about a week, but that remains to be seen if anything can actually develop there.

NATIONAL SHRIMP FESTIVAL: Perfect weather in Gulf Shores for the big event Thursday through Saturday. Sunny warm days, fair pleasant highs. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s. Could not be better.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I will be speaking today at St. Martin’s In The Pines, a retirement community in the eastern part of Birmingham. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 454: I Wasn’t the First Choice?

Tue, 10/07/2014 - 05:15

WeatherBrains Episode 454 is now online (October 6, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Program Chair for the upcoming 39th Annual Meeting of the National Weather Association. He is the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service in Salt Lake City, UT. Randy Graham, welcome to WeatherBrains! Randy has all the updates on the National Weather Association Annual Meeting for 2014.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 107 at Death Valley, CA, and 20 at Bodie State Park, CA
  • Kevin does the show on the floor with boxes
  • Bill joins to us for Ardmore, OK
  • NWA theme – research into operations and communicating the information
  • Thunderstorms with hail in the Southeast US
  • Atlantic Tropical Basin still quiet; Simon weakening and moving into Baja California
  • And don’t miss some of the football chat
  • and more!
  • Our email bag officer is out so no mail bag.

    From The Weather Center:

    WeatherBrains 101: We are out of the summer season but outflow boundaries are always a fascinating topic. So this episode we take a look at some of the characteristics of outflow boundaries.

    Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

    Web Sites from Episode 454:

    NWS Salt Lake City, UT

    National Weather Association Conference

    The Leonardo in Salt Lake City

    Picks of the Week:

    Randy Graham – Ensemble Situational Awareness Table

    Bill Murray – NWA Blog

    Brian Peters – Weather Prediction Center

    Kevin Selle – Bails with bandwidth issues

    James Spann – WCM Page at SPC

    SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

    The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning NE Marion County Until 10 p.m.

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 21:22

    Large hail to the size of quarters is falling in Hackleburg at this time. Bear Creek will see large hail.

    The storm is moving east at 25 mph and will eventually move into northwestern Winston County near Haleyville.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 945 PM CDT

    * AT 922 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
    WAS LOCATED NEAR HACKLEBURG…OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAMILTON…
    AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    HACKLEBURG…TESSNER AND BEAR CREEK.

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning Marion County until 8:15 PM

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 19:37

    *THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 815 PM CDT

    * AT 736 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
    WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF WESTON…OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
    HAMILTON…AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    WESTON…HACKLEBURG…BRINN…PIGEYE AND TESSNER.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM…PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
    HAIL. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER…PREFERABLY INSIDE A
    STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

    TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
    CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

    Categories: Weather

    Evening Update

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 18:43

    We continue to monitor a few strong and locally severe storms across Alabama this evening. All storms this afternoon and evening have been confined to the northern third of the state and north of the Intestate 59 corridor. Storms today have been pulsing up in intensity for a few minutes but then pulsing down. Very strong and robust updrafts have been occurring with these storms and these storms have been producing very large hail in areas they have affected. Numerous reports of hail up to the size of golf balls across portions of Wintson, Walker, and Cullman counties. Storms continue to move off towards the east to northeast rapidly.

    The SPC maintains much of North Alabama under a slight risk for severe weather through the overnight hours (areas outline in green above). Looking at the overall dynamics in the area below, there is ample CAPE in portions of Arkansas, Tennessee, and northern Mississippi. We are waiting to see if additional storms develop back to the northwest, and these will be watched carefully as instability remains robust in the areas outlined in the risk. However, as the sun sets, storm coverage and intensity should begin to diminish slowly as instability values decrease do to the loss of daytime heating. We should see storms last a few more hours, before winding down before midnight. Latest mesoscale discussion from the SPC suggest a severe weather watch will not be needed for this event across Alabama.

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 6:45 PM

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 18:12

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 645 PM CDT

    * AT 610 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS
    STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CULLMAN…AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    CULLMAN…HANCEVILLE…GOOD HOPE…HOLLY POND…BAILEYTON…
    FAIRVIEW…WALTER…JOPPA AND PHELAN.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL JUST
    SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY OF CULLMAN. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
    STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 6:15 PM

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 17:45

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
    WEST CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA…
    NORTHEASTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 615 PM CDT

    * AT 544 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CULLMAN…AND MOVING EAST AT
    30 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    CULLMAN…ARAB…HOLLY POND…VINEMONT…BAILEYTON…EVA…
    FAIRVIEW…EDDY…RYAN CROSSROADS AND JOPPA.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…DESTRUCTIVE HAIL…
    DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO
    AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
    RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
    COVERS THE ROAD.

    Categories: Weather

    Severe Thunderstorm Warning Cullman County until 6:15 PM

    Mon, 10/06/2014 - 17:43

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
    NORTHWESTERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

    * UNTIL 615 PM CDT

    * AT 542 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
    OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HELICON…OR 9 MILES EAST OF
    ARLEY…AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

    * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
    CULLMAN…HANCEVILLE…GOOD HOPE…DODGE CITY…BALDWIN…CRANE
    HILL…PHELAN…LOGAN AND SMITH LAKE.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS…DESTRUCTIVE HAIL…
    DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO
    AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
    RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
    COVERS THE ROAD.

    Categories: Weather