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Wet Is The Word

Mon, 04/13/2015 - 06:25

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Rain is falling this morning across much of North/Central Alabama, and we expect rain to continue at times through tonight. While a thunderstorm is possible, severe weather is not expected, and the high should be in the mid 70s this afternoon.

We should mention a flash flood watch is in effect for the Gulf Coast today, including places like New Orleans, Mobile, Gulf Shores, Pensacola, and Panama City. One report was received this morning of 9.47″ during the past 24 hours in Mobile just off Girby Road.

TOMORROW: The latest high resolution NAM model (06Z) is actually suggesting that a decent part of the day tomorrow could be dry, but we will still mention the risk of a few showers during the day with a cloudy sky; rain will then increase tomorrow night with the next wave approaching from the west.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: The wet pattern continues. There will be some decent breaks in the rain along the way, but rain could come at any hour of the day or night. And, while thunderstorms remain possible, severe storms are not expected. Rain totals between now and Friday are expected to be in the 3 to 5 inch range for most of Alabama, and we could be dealing with some flash flooding issues later this week with the ground becoming saturated.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Still cloudy and wet at times. Seems like the wettest day will be Saturday, with showers thinning out a bit Sunday as a surface low moves northeast of Alabama. Afternoon highs will remain in the 70s, right at seasonal averages for mid-April.

Interesting to note the GFS model is suggesting parts of Central Alabama could see over 8 inches of rain over the next seven days…

NEXT WEEK: A large upper trough is forecast to form over the eastern half of the U.S… this should keep temperatures below average for a decent part of the week meaning no severe weather issues. A few showers are possible early in the week, but next week won’t be as wet as this week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have weather programs today at Coldwater Elementary in Calhoun County… and Oliver Elementary in Birmingham. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Rain Dead Ahead

Sun, 04/12/2015 - 15:12

An active southern branch of the jetstream will bring heavy rainfall to Central Alabama over the next ten days. In fact, some model data indicates that we may deal with as much as 5-10 inches of rain during the period.

That rain will begin later this afternoon across Central Alabama as scattered light showers and increase in coverage and intensity overnight. There could be a few embedded thunderstorms as well.

This afternoon, high clouds are overspreading the southeastern two thirds of the area, associated with a moist upper flow out of the southwest.

Where there are clouds, temperatures are in the lower and middle 70s.

Over Northwest Alabama, where more sunshine is prevalent, temperatures are in the upper 70s to near 80F.

A few light showers are drifting northward across eastern Mississippi and East Central Alabama. We will see those increasing in coming hours.

Further south and southwest, more widespread showers are moving across southeastern Mississippi and Southwest Alabama. Even heavier and more widespread ones are spreading northeast into Louisiana.

Categories: Weather

Transitioning to Wet Weather

Sun, 04/12/2015 - 07:06

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

After a very nice April day for Saturday, today will be a transition day as Central Alabama gets set for about a week of unsettled weather. The day will start out dry with some high cirrus clouds, but the clouds should thicken and lower as the afternoon goes on with a possibility of showers going into the evening hours. Highs should be in the 70s.

The current upper air pattern features a closed low over northern Mexico with a weak ridge over the Southeast US. This establishes a good southwesterly flow with moisture coming out of the Pacific across the Southeast US. A series of weak disturbances will come out across the Southeast US in the southwesterly flow. The closed low will open into a wave as the northern stream brings a front down into the area by Tuesday. The front will stall out across the Southeast US while we maintain a wet southwesterly flow aloft keeping deep moisture in place. This translates to periods of rain and storms off and on for much of the week ahead.

The pattern does not change much until the northern stream finally digs a closed low into New Mexico Thursday keeping us in deep moisture. The latest GFS is much slower in bringing the closed low out across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, so it looks like we will stay wet into next weekend before the closed low and trough can inch by us to finally end the wet pattern. On the bright side, we will see highs primarily in the 70s and lows 58 to 64 for much of the week ahead, so no signs of any significant temperature fluctuations.

Rainfall for the next five days could result in totals of 3 to 5 inches. While there may be some heavy rain Monday, the flash flooding threat seems minimal since we have seen a couple of days of dry weather. However, this wet pattern could result in additional heavy rains this week that may elevate the flash flood threat.

For beach goers, look for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast this week. Expect 3 to 5 hours of sun with the daily risk of passing showers or thunderstorms. No big changes in temperatures as highs will be in the 70s, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. The water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was about 75 degrees. There is a danger of rip currents as the wind flow becomes strong onshore over the next several days.

Looking out into voodoo country, the end of April appears likely to remain somewhat stormy with a substantial trough/closed low around April 22nd and then another strong short wave around the 26th/27th. So no rest in the weather department.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video here first thing on Monday morning. Enjoy the day and get the rain gear ready. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Splendid Spring Saturday

Sat, 04/11/2015 - 13:43

The front has pushed well into South Alabama today. In its wake, plenty of sunshine, slightly cooler temps, and much drier air. Humidity levels are very low and it is feeling very nice on this April Saturday. Any plans you have will be A OKAY when it comes to weather. This afternoon, most locations are sitting in the 70s. I highly recommend everyone getting out and enjoying this terrific weather.

For tonight, expect a clear and cool night as temps settle back down into the lower to mid 50s, and there will even be some 40s in Northeast Alabama. Heading into our Sunday, most of Alabama should be dry, especially for North-Central Alabama. However, our winds will be shifting back out of the south, and moisture will be returning. That means clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon hours, and a shower could move up here from the south Sunday night as moisture returns. I think for the most part, it will be a very nice day, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

Categories: Weather

Nice Saturday After Stormy Friday

Sat, 04/11/2015 - 07:10

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

No thunder to wake up to this morning for Central Alabama as a cold front has moved to the Gulf Coast ushering in some slightly cooler and drier air. Highs today will be about the same as yesterday, however, the air will be much drier with dew points dipping back into the 40s. But don’t get used to the nice weather since the weather pattern is shaping up to be somewhat unsettled for much of the week ahead.

The unsettled weather with the potential for some heavy rain on Monday will be a result of the active southern stream and an upper level flow from the southwest that will keep us rather wet with precipitable water values climbing above an inch and three quarters. We will see weak ridging over the Southeast US, however, with the moisture laden southwesterly flow and a series of weak disturbances moving through that flow, our weather will be unsettled with rain chances every day until the end of the week.

At the end of the week, a strong trough in the northern stream is forecast to dig into the Central US and hopefully kick our unsettled weather pattern east. The strong trough may bring severe weather possibilities with it, but we’ll wait on making a forecast on this feature until we get a closer to the event.

GULF COAST WEATHER: There will be a limited amount of sunshine today from Panama City westward to Gulf Shores with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms; highs will be in the 70s. Then, very similar weather for much of next week…. about 3 to 5 hours of sun with the daily risk of showers or thunderstorms with highs in the 70s. At last check, the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 72 degrees.

The weather pattern remains somewhat active out into Week 2 or voodoo country. The GFS shows another strong trough moving through the Central US around the 20th of April and then the model closes off a low over the Ohio River Valley. If this pattern comes about we could see some much unseasonably cooler weather for the latter part of April.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here first thing on Sunday morning. Enjoy this lovely April day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Nice Day Tomorrow As The Weekend Begins

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 15:32

**No afternoon Weather Xtreme video today**

ACTIVE STORMS OVER SOUTH ALABAMA: Storms have grown stronger over the southern half of the state, and in come cases they are producing hail and strong, gusty winds.

The storms over South Alabama will wind down this evening… and up this way the sky will clear tonight as cooler and drier air drops in from the north.

NICE DAY TOMORROW: We are still forecasting a good supply of sunshine for the northern half of Alabama tomorrow with lower humidity… we begin the day with a low near 50 degrees, then we rise into the mid 70s by afternoon.

Sunday still looks dry, but clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon, and a few showers could reach North/Central Alabama by Sunday evening. Sunday’s high will be in the 76 to 79 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: A rather unsettled pattern will set up, not uncommon for the middle of April in Alabama. Each day we will have a risk of showers and thunderstorms, at least through Thursday. The rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should peek out at times. Highs will be mostly in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the 60s.

Global models continue to suggest a fairly robust upper trough west of the state by Wednesday night and Thursday, which could set the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Deep South. Too early to be specific… just something to watch for now.

GULF COAST WEATHER: There will be a limited amount of sunshine tomorrow and Sunday (about 3 to 5 hours) from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms; highs will be in the 70s. Then, very similar weather for much of next week…. about 3 to 5 hours of sun with the daily risk of a few passing showers or thunderstorms. The sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 72 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the kids at St. Paul’s Lutheran School in Cullman… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning – Chambers Co.

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 15:26

This storm is near the eastern border of Alabama approaching La Fayette heading East.   It will arrive in Lannet and Valley AL around 4:15.  Across south central Alabama, a wide range of scattered but severe thunderstorms are making their way across the state ahead of a cold front.

There’s a developing low pressure system near Montgomery.  Instabilities are running as high as 2,000 to 2,500 j/Kg, and there a decent amount of bulk sheer (30/40 kts),  so the storms are able to organize. However, there is no low-level helicity, thus indicating a low chance of tornadoes.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 325 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RIDGE
GROVE…OR NEAR CAMP HILL…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
VALLEY…LANETT…LAFAYETTE…LA FAYETTE…LAKEVIEW…CUSSETA…
WEST CHAMBERS…RIVER VIEW…DENSON…RIDGE GROVE…AMITY PARK…
HUGULEY…FAIRFAX…CHAMBERS COUNTY LAKE…FREDONIA…VEASEY CREEK
PARK…STURKIE…BUFFALO…STROUD CREEK AND I 85 WELCOME CENTER AT
LANETT.

 

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning – Autauga and Lowndes Co.

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 15:11

This is the extension warning mentioned in the previous post.  While there is a nice notch and a bounded weak echo region there is no significant rotation to indicate conditions associated with tornadoes.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN LOWNDES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SOUTHERN AUTAUGA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 310 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GARDNER
ISLAND…OR 7 MILES EAST OF SELMONT-WEST SELMONT…MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
PRATTVILLE…AUTAUGAVILLE…WHITE HALL…LOWNDESBORO…AUTAUGA
COUNTY AIRPORT…BOOTH…MULBERRY…MANACK AND ROBERT F. HENRY LOCK
AND DAM.

 

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Dallas Co.

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 15:00

These Severe Weather Storm Warning polygon includes the City of Selma, Al.  It is tracking East-North-East and should be clear of this area in 20-30 minutes.  This storm will likely be in Autaugaville by 3:25 and Prattville by 3:40.  There is currently no indications of a tornado threat associated with this storm.

An extension of this warning was also issued to include Autaugaville and Prattville.

The primary hazards in these warnings are 60 mph winds and hail.

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EAST CENTRAL DALLAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 330 PM CDT

* AT 258 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SELMA…
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
SELMA…SELMONT-WEST SELMONT…GARDNER ISLAND…MEMORIAL STADIUM…
BURNSVILLE…DALLAS COUNTY HORSE ARENA…POTTER STATION…SELMA
DRAG STRIP…CRAIG FIELD AIPORT…EDMUND PETTUS BRIDGE…SKYHARBOR
AIRPORT AND SELMA UNIVERSITY.

Categories: Weather

Messy Rush Hour

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 07:06

It is a messy rush hour across a large part of the Birmingham Metro area this morning with torrential rain falling from thunderstorms.

Rain is heaviest across the southern part of the Metro, especially along I-459 to the west of I-65 and over much of the area east of I-65.

The left panel shows the current radar. The right panel shows the rainfall which has fallen over the past hour. Rainfall rates of over an inch per hour have occurred. 1.34 inches of rain fell at the Birmingham Airport in just one hour.

This has resulted in minor flooding on some roadways, slowing traffic and causing accidents. The NWS has issued an Areal Flood Advisory for parts of Jefferson County.

Slow down and plan for a longer commute this morning.

Categories: Weather

Wet At Times Today; Drier Tomorrow

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 06:09

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected, showers and storms have remained well under severe limits across North Alabama during the pre-dawn hours as the main upper support lifted away to the northeast.

A cold front will push slowly through the state today; showers and thunderstorms are likely this morning statewide, but by this afternoon the most numerous storms will push down into the southern half of Alabama. The guys at SPC maintain the standard “slight” risk of severe weather for South Alabama this afternoon and early tonight…

Some of the storms across South Alabama could produce hail and gusty winds this afternoon, but with little low level bulk shear and weak wind fields, there is very little risk of a tornado.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Tomorrow promises to be a beautiful day for the northern half of the state with ample sunshine and a high in the mid 70s. Humidity values will be lower, and we start the day close to 50 degrees. The weather stays dry Sunday for North/Central Alabama, but clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon hours, and a shower could move up in here from the south Sunday night as moisture returns. Sunday’s high will be in the 76-79 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms are likely Monday as a short wave passes through; showers will be fewer in number Tuesday, but rain is still possible at times. Unsettled weather continues for the rest of the week with some risk of showers and storms daily; the 00Z GFS hints that we could see a setup for strong to severe storms late in the week with a surface low setting up over Arkansas with good upper support. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: For the weekend, we project about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine for the coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Then, early next week, about 3 to 5 hours of sun daily, and we will maintain the risk of a few passing showers and storms daily Monday through Wednesday. Highs will be in the 70s, and sea water temperatures are very close to 70 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I have a weather program this morning at St. Paul’s Lutheran School in Cullman… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Storms Remain Below Severe Limits

Fri, 04/10/2015 - 05:01

Thunderstorms continue to move through North Alabama this morning… some with heavy rain and lots of lightning, but they remain well below severe limits.

Storms will continue to move southeast during the next few hours. Later today, a few severe storms are possible over the southern half of the state, where hail and gusty winds will be the primary threat. A full forecast discussion and new Weather Xtreme video coming soon…

Categories: Weather

The Alabama Weather Situation at 11:30 p.m.

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 23:35

Click to enlarge

We continue to monitor active weather to our northwest late tonight as a cold front pushes towards Alabama.

The front is about 75 miles northwest of Little Rock at this hour. It will be near Hamilton by 7 a.m. and south of I-59 by noon.

Showers and storms continue across northern Mississippi and eastern Arkansas tonight, but they are not severe. Instability values are dropping across Alabama and low level wind shear values are low. The storms will continue to run out of steam as they push east of I-55 in Mississippi during the early morning hours and move into Northwest Alabama.

There is a severe thunderstorm watch for northern Mississippi that goes until 1 a.m. It remains to be seen whether the NWS will issue a new watch downstream into Alabama. My gut feel is that they won’t.

We can’t rule out a severe storm or two overnight, with damaging wind gusts the main threat, so we will be monitoring things closely through the overnight hours.

Categories: Weather

Watching Developments To The Northwest

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 21:14

A major tornado moved through Rochelle, IL this evening… part of a wide area of strong to severe storms from the Great Lakes to Texas…

Strong storms are over Arkansas and West Tennessee… and those are moving in our direction…

A severe thunderstorm watch is up for much of North Mississippi, but no watches are in effect for any part of Alabama at this point. The high resolution HRRR model shows the storms moving into the northwest corner of Alabama between 1:00 and 2:00 a.m.

The storms will be strong as they move into the northwest corner of Alabama, with potential for some hail and strong gusty winds. But, with the main dynamics lifting our to the northeast, and weakening wind fields, the storms should weaken as they move south during the pre-dawn hours, and the severe weather threat is low for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

Storms could intensify again tomorrow afternoon over South Alabama, but the tornado threat looks very low… main issues could be from hail and gusty winds. Drier air rolls into the state tomorrow night, and the weekend will be dry and pleasant. We will watch radar trends closely overnight as the storms get closer.

Categories: Weather

Showers/Storms Arrive Tomorrow

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 15:26

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM APRIL AFTERNOON: Temperatures are generally in the 80-84 degree range across the great state of Alabama this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds; nothing showing up on radar. The weather is getting active north and west of the state; a tornado watch is up for parts of Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana… and to the north another one is in effect for much of Illinois and some of the adjacent states, including Chicago.

A large “enhanced” severe weather risk continues from the southern Great Lakes down to the Ark-La-Tex region through tonight…

Note the “slight” risk extends down into far Northwest Alabama… and keep in mind this outlook runs through 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.

SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO ALABAMA: A line of strong, possibly severe storms will enter the northwest corner of the state between 1:00 and 3:00 a.m… and they could produce hail and strong winds as they move through places like Florence and Muscle Shoals.

But, the storms should weaken as they drop south toward daybreak, and it continue to look like the chance of severe weather is low for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden.

But, SPC has a “slight” severe weather risk up tomorrow afternoon for the southern counties of the state… instability values will be higher there, and some of the storms from U.S. 80 south (Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika) could produce hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat is very low for South Alabama tomorrow afternoon despite the SPC risk due to weak wind fields and low bulk shear values.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Still looking very nice for most of the state; for North/Central Alabama Saturday will feature a sun-filled sky with lower humidity and a high in the mid 70s. And, we stay dry Sunday with a partly to mostly sunny sky along with a high in the upper 70s. Any showers over the weekend will be confined to far South Alabama, and even there those showers will be widely spaced.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture comes back, and it looks like we will have some risk of showers and thunderstorms on daily basis through the week; a deep upper trough could bring the risk of strong to severe storms around Thursday (April 16)… but too early to be specific on that risk. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Expect about 2 to 4 hours of sunshine on the Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores tomorrow and Saturday with a few passing showers and thunderstorms likely. Then, 5 to 7 hours of sunshine Sunday into early next week with scattered showers and storms possible. Highs on the immediate coast will be mostly in the 70s, and the sea water temperature this afternoon at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 71 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Arrives Tomorrow

Thu, 04/09/2015 - 06:20

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER WARM DAY AHEAD: Yesterday gave Alabama quite the summer preview… some highs included 89 at Dothan, 88 at Troy, and 87 at Anniston and Montgomery. We project a high today in the low to mid 80s for most North/Central Alabama communities with a mix of sun and clouds; the chance of an afternoon shower for any one given spot remains small.

NORTHWEST OF ALABAMA: There is a large “enhanced” risk of severe weather from near Shreveport to Chicago…

These storms will move into the northwest corner of Alabama after midnight; SPC has that little part of Alabama (around Muscle Shoals) in the standard “slight risk” of severe storms for the potential of strong gusty winds and some hail. However, the storms should weaken as they move deeper into Alabama toward daybreak tomorrow.

FRIDAY FRONT: Models have trended a little slower with the movement of the surface front tomorrow. The day will be cloudy with a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms; SPC has the southern third of the state in the standard “slight” risk of severe weather tomorrow afternoon as there will be a decent amount of instability. But, overall wind fields are weak and the threat looks fairly limited.

In terms of timing, with the slower movement of the front I think we need to maintain at least a chance of showers into the afternoon hours for North/Central Alabama (places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden). Showers will end during the evening as drier air drops in from the north. Tomorrow’s high will be in the mid to upper 70s.

THE WEEKEND: Saturday looks like a delightful day for the northern two-thirds of the state with ample sunshine and a high in the low to mid 70s. Humidity values will also be considerably lower. The dry air should hold in place Sunday for the northern counties, but showers will be possible from about Montgomery south Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers and storms are possible statewide Monday as a southerly flow becomes established again, and it looks like there will be some risk of rain every day next week as the moist air stays in place. For now we don’t see any overwhelming evidence of severe weather problems in Alabama, but we always have to watch trends closely this time of the year. Highs next week will be generally in the 75-80 degree range, not far from average values for mid-April in Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

Categories: Weather

Cold Front Arrives Friday Morning

Wed, 04/08/2015 - 15:41

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM APRIL AFTERNOON: As expected, it is a very warm April day across the great state of Alabama with most communities up in the low to mid 80s. Interesting to note Tuscaloosa is cooler with temperatures only in the mid 70s; a small but persistent patch of clouds has lingered right over the Druid City through the day. No rain on radar, and the chance of showers will remain very low overnight.

NORTH AND WEST OF HERE: A “moderate” severe weather risk is up for parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri, and severe storms with tornadoes will remain possible in that region.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Our weather won’t change much tomorrow… mostly dry and warm with only isolated afternoon showers or storms. The surface low, partly responsible for the severe weather across the nation’s mid-section, will lift north toward Canada tomorrow night and Friday, and will drag a cold front into Alabama.

Showers and storms ahead of the front will enter far North Alabama after midnight tomorrow night, and they could pack a punch initially over the Tennessee Valley. SPC has pulled the “slight risk” of severe weather down into extreme North Alabama due to this potential; places like Muscle Shoals and Athens could see storms with some hail and strong, gusty straight line winds between 2:00 and 6:00 a.m. Friday.

Then, during the day Friday, the storms will weaken as they move southward, and severe weather is not expected for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden. The best chance of showers and storms will come during the morning hours, with drier air moving in by Friday afternoon. Friday’s high will drop back into the 70s due to the clouds and rain.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: It looks delightful for the northern two-thirds of the state, with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. The high Saturday will be in the mid 70s, and then close to 80 degrees Sunday afternoon. Morning lows will be well down in the 50s, with 40s for the colder valleys. Any showers will be confined to far South Alabama, and even there rain won’t be too widespread or heavy.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture begins to return, and we will deal with some risk of showers Monday and Tuesday, but the best dynamic support for severe weather will remain north and west of Alabama. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a great time today visiting with the second graders at East Elementary in Cullman… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warm And Mostly Dry Today

Wed, 04/08/2015 - 06:12

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SUMMER PREVIEW: We are projecting a high in the mid 80s across much of North/Central Alabama today… making it one of the warmest days so far this year, and well above the average high of 72 degrees for April 8 (for Birmingham). The sky will be partly sunny, and the chance of any one spot seeing a shower this afternoon is only about one in ten.

While we enjoy the calm weather, severe storms are likely later today and tonight across parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri, where SPC has defined an “enhanced” severe weather threat.

Not much change tomorrow; there is an “enhanced” severe weather threat from near Chicago down to below St. Louis, but in Alabama the day will be warm with only widely scattered afternoon showers or storms; we reach the low to mid 80s tomorrow afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds.

FRIDAY FRONT: The surface low, partly responsible for the active weather across the nation’s mid-section today and tomorrow, will move up into eastern Canada, dragging a cold front into Alabama Friday. Data from the high resolution NAM hints the main band of showers and storms ahead of the front will impact North/Central Alabama from 4:00 a.m. until 12:00 noon Friday. The severe weather potential continues to look very low; SPC has a “marginal” severe weather risk defined for the southern two-thirds of the state.

Instability values are marginal, bulk shear is low, wind fields are weak, and lapse rates are not especially steep. You have to watch any thunderstorm in April in Alabama, but it just doesn’t look like a severe weather setup. Rain amounts around 1/2 inch are likely.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Global models continue to trend dry for the northern half of the state. Saturday now looks mostly sunny with a high in the 70s… any showers should be confined to far South Alabama. And, while moisture begins to return Sunday, the 00Z GFS is pretty dry with only a small threat of shower for the northern counties. The high Sunday afternoon will be close to 80 degrees.

Next week scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through Wednesday, but again the best chance of organized severe weather seems to stay well to the north and west of Alabama, where better dynamic support exists. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1998: An EF-5 tornado cut through the western suburbs of Birmingham… communities like Oak Grove, Rock Creek, Sylvan Springs, McDonald Chapel, Edgewater, and Pratt City killing 32 people. The same parent thunderstorm dropped another tornado in St. Clair County, killing two north of Pell City.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I have a weather program this morning at East Elementary in Cullman… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Warm Afternoons; Only Isolated Showers

Tue, 04/07/2015 - 15:11

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: As expected the weather is pretty quiet across the great state of Alabama this afternoon… only a few isolated showers are on radar up over the Tennessee Valley; most of the state is dry. Temperatures are in the 77 to 81 degree range.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Not much overall change on these two days; we project highs between 81 and 84 degrees both days with a mix of sun and clouds; the chance of rain is not zero, but most communities will stay dry. Chance of any one community getting wet tomorrow is 10 percent, and 20 percent Thursday afternoon, and any showers or storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, when the air is most unstable.

TO THE NORTHWEST: The guys at SPC has “enhanced” severe weather risks defined tomorrow and Thursday for a broad zone from Oklahoma to Illinois; a deepening surface low will run from the plains of Colorado to the Great Lakes with good support from an upper trough to the west. A few tornadoes will be possible in this region, along with storms producing hail and damaging straight line winds.

COLD FRONT MOVES IN FRIDAY: Showers and storms will increase statewide Friday as a cold front pushes into the state. The main dynamic support will pass well north of Alabama, and with marginal instability, weak wind fields, and very little bulk shear we don’t expect any severe weather issues. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Getting better model agreement on the resting place of the surface front… it will stop a little south of U.S. 80 (south of a line from Demopolis to Selma to Montgomery to Opelika). This means the northern half of Alabama should be dry Saturday with a bit of filtered sunshine with a high in the mid to upper 70s. Showers will remain possible Saturday over the southern third of Alabama.

Then, on Sunday, the front lifts northward, and we will mention a chance of showers statewide. The 12Z run of the GFS suggests rain Sunday won’t be especially heavy or widespread, but no doubt it could rain a few times during the day, with a high in the 77-80 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Showers and storms remain possible Monday, and there seems to be a setup for severe weather west of Alabama around the Ark-La-Tex region. But, dynamic support weakens as the wave lifts northeast, and for now the severe weather risk here looks low, although showers and thunderstorms could linger into Tuesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I enjoyed seeing the kindergarten kids today at Alberta Elementary in Tuscaloosa… and their new school building looks fantastic. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warmer, Drier Days Ahead

Tue, 04/07/2015 - 06:19

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM APRIL WEATHER AHEAD: Temperatures were below average across Alabama yesterday (the average high for April 7 in Birmingham is 72) thanks to the clouds and rain, but we will see above average highs today and through mid-week as an upper ridge builds across the region. Low 80s are likely today, with mid 80s possible tomorrow and Thursday.

The warm air aloft associated with the ridge will also keep a lid on any potential showers. The chance of rain is certainly not zero today through Thursday, but any showers and storms will be very isolated, and mostly during the afternoon and evening hours. The chance any one spot getting a shower through Thursday is only about 15 percent.

NORTHWEST OF ALABAMA: Severe storms are likely across parts of the nation’s heartland tomorrow and Thursday… in fact there is an “enhanced” severe weather risk Thursday from near Chicago to St. Louis. A few tornadoes are possible in this region as well, but all of this really active weather remains northwest or our state.

FRIDAY FRONT: A cold front will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms to Alabama Friday, but no severe weather is expected with low instability values, very little bulk shear, and weak wind fields. The high on Friday will drop back in the 70s because of clouds and rain.

ALABAMA’S WEEKEND: The front will stall out somewhere across Central Alabama Saturday, and where the boundary stops will determine who gets rain, and who stays dry. For now we will project the front to stall just south of I-20, so from Birmingham north most of the day Saturday should be rain-free, but the southern half of the state will be wet at times. Saturday’s high will be in the 70s.

Then, on Sunday, the surface boundary will lift northward as a warm front, and we will mention a chance of showers statewide. The high Sunday will be in the upper 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Another cold front will bring showers and storms Monday, but once again the main dynamic forcing will be north of the state, meaning the severe weather threat for now looks low. Then, cooler and drier air should work into the state Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I have a weather program this morning at Alberta Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… they are in their new building which looks fantastic; the old building was destroyed by the EF-4 tornado April 27, 2011. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather