ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 36 min 7 sec ago

Frost Advisory Tonight

Sun, 11/09/2014 - 18:58

…FROST POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TONIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CST
MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES…OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS…THE FROST WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

Categories: Weather

Gorgeous Sunday Afternoon

Sun, 11/09/2014 - 16:09

It is such a beautiful day across the entire state. We are once again seeing a nearly completely clear sky across the state, with just a few clouds over southeastern portions of the state.

It was another chilly start to the day, with widespread 30s and 40s. Under the sun-filled sky, temps are once again in the 60s in most locations this afternoon.

Tonight, under a mostly clear sky, we will see our temps drop back into the 30s area wide. Heading into the work week, temps will be moderating and we should see highs near the 70s degree mark, but by the middle part of the week, a very strong cold front will bring in a very cold air mass into the state to end the week. Enjoy the next few days or warm weather.

Categories: Weather

Cool Today but Warmer Mon & Tue

Sun, 11/09/2014 - 08:14

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Another cold front moved through the state last night and early this morning with much of the cloudiness associated with it now east of Central Alabama. With a good supply of sunshine, highs should climb into the lower and middle 60s across the area.

Weak ridging will keep our weather dry and warmer for Monday and Tuesday as highs climb into the 70s – just slightly above our typical highs for this time of year. But don’t get too comfortable with the warm weather since the bottom is going to fall out of the temperatures for the end of the week.

A large closed low over the western Great Lakes will carve out a trough over the eastern US Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. Showers will be possible with the front on Tuesday night and into the first half of Wednesday, but moisture will be limited so don’t look for a lot of rain. Rainfall totals are forecast to be fairly light, probably less than a quarter of an inch for those places that do see a shower. After the front passes, the cold air moves into the Southeast US.

Depending on the exact timing of the frontal passage, Wednesday could be one of those days where temperatures hold steady or fall throughout the day as the wind comes around to the northwest with some chilly gusts. Thursday and Friday will be quite chilly with lows near freezing and daily highs struggling to get out of the 40s.

Another substantial wave moves through the trough on Sunday and the GFS suggests a fairly wet event for the Southeastern US then. With the dry weather we’ve seen over the last several weeks, we could use a good soaker. But there is also a downside to this situation. It will be possible for a shot at winter weather somewhere in the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys. But we are much too early to be specific on an exact location or the exact nature of the event, but the pattern certainly supports this idea, so we’ll need to keep a wary eye on future model runs.

As we get out further into voodoo, the pattern remains pretty active with another substantial short wave around the 22nd followed quickly by yet another trough around the 24th.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

James Spann will be up first thing on Monday morning with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video. Enjoy the lovely Fall weather before the chill next week. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Tabloid Weather Reporting Takes Over

Sun, 11/09/2014 - 08:06

I have been doing weather on television since the summer of 1978… and over these 36 years I can clearly say the level of outrageous hyperbole in the weather business has never been this extreme. It is coming from many sources, and there are days when it seems like it overpowers logic and conventional forecasts.

On some days, I will spend one to two hours answering questions from people who want to know if “what they saw on Facebook” is true (and I assure you, I don’t have one to two hours to do this). Friday’s idiotic post of the day was from none other than CBS News…

Seems like the national media has gone loco when it comes to weather. This is what you are going to hear all season long, apparently (graphic from Mike Rawlins)…

Yep, every weather system this season it seems will be a “polar vortex monster storm with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning”.

Add to the mix people posting medium range (7 to 15 day) computer model voodoo snow forecasts, and the confusion gets out of hand. On almost any cold season day, I can find at least one global model that paints a North Alabama snow in the 7 to 15 day time frame. And, of course, there is no skill in a specific forecast at that range, and they hardly ever happen. Just like the medium range voodoo model hurricane forecasts in summer that are bogus.

When it comes to snow hysteria, and I have written before part of this is OUR problem after the botched January 28 snow forecast earlier this year. I don’t blame people for not trusting us; they will run to the most terrifying forecast that can find and believe it since we have to rebuild our credibility. And, they share that outrageous forecast like wildfire on Facebook.

We call this “clickbait”… people are looking for likes and clicks, and a wild good snow/winter storm forecast is a way to get them, whether the forecast is true or not. Truth doesn’t matter in this game… it is all about the battle for your eyeballs.

I ask that you think before you share any weather content on social media.

WHAT YOU GET FROM US: When I say “us”… I mean the meteorologists at ABC 33/40 and The Weather Factory. You will get a forecast product that is accurate as the science allows. I have been going the “Weather Xtreme video” for over 12 years now… a twice daily video that clearly explains WHY we are forecasting what you read and see. Open for the world to see, and easy to use. We have spent many long hours writing these blog discussions and forecasts… we will be wrong from time to time, but we stand by our verification history, which is very strong.

WHAT YOU WON’T GET FROM US: Forecasts of “polar vortex monster storms with millions in the path that is unprecedented and struck without warning”. Wild medium range voodoo snow forecasts. Clickbait.

Maybe I am fighting a losing battle, and the clickbait guys will win. But, as long as I am here expect the same content, level of service, and professional weather products without the hype. Thanks for being part of our “blog family”… I sincerely appreciate it, and your interest in real weather products that, while never perfect, is done with much care and sound science.

Categories: Weather

A Nice, Cool Fall Saturday

Sat, 11/08/2014 - 15:18

It was a chilly start to the day with most locations in the lower to mid 30s this morning. We have since warmed up into the 60s this afternoon under a sun-filled sky.

Now depending on you location across the state, there are varying sky conditions. In the southeastern portions of the state, it is a mostly cloudy day, especially across the Wiregrass Region, as well in the northwestern corner of the state. Central Alabama remains in the sun, and heading into the overnight hours, we should see clouds move into the most area of the state. These clouds will act as a blanket an help keep temps a little warmer overnight with lows closer to 40 for most areas.

For Sunday, it will be mostly sunny with highs in the lower to mid-60s across the area.

Categories: Weather

Latest U.S. Drought Monitor

Sat, 11/08/2014 - 12:00

Much of the state of California continues to suffer from exceptional drought conditions, with little to no relief expected anytime soon. In Texas, recent rains continue to help conditions improve. The exceptional drought conditions there are only affecting northern portions of  Texas and into Oklahoma.

For Alabama, locations across the Tennessee Valley continue to be in the best shape with no drought conditions being reported. Abnormally dry conditions are affecting 67.39% of the state this week, and that has increased from 60.59% of the state last week. Very little rain the last week, continues to allow drought condition to worsen across the state. Last week, moderate drought was occurring in 17.23% of the state, this week, it has jumped to 25.94% of the state. These conditions are very prevalent along the Interstate 20 corridor and for areas to the south.

We also continue to see severe drought conditions persisting in Clay and Tallapoosa counties. As we look at the forecast the next seven days, we do have a chance of rain, but we are not expecting enough to help with these very dry conditions in the state. With the continued dry pattern, it looks as though conditions may continue to get worse before they get better.

Click image to enlarge.

Categories: Weather

Warmer After a Chilly Start

Sat, 11/08/2014 - 08:23

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Alabama’s weather getting off to a chilly start this morning with morning temperatures mainly in the lower half of the 30s. Our Skywatcher in Black Creek reported a good frost this morning with a low of 27. We should see plenty of sunshine today so I expect temperatures to warm into the lower and middle 60s, but those values will still be 5 to 7 degrees below our seasonal average for highs for early November.

For football-goers, Auburn hosts Texas A&M this afternoon at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter. Alabama plays on the road; they take on LSU tonight in Baton Rouge where the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half. And UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Legion Field today with an 11:00 am kickoff. There will be a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and lower 60s by the fourth quarter.

It should be another nice Fall day on Sunday. A good supply of sunshine will not help overcome the effects of a weak front passing through Central Alabama with highs once again in the lower 60s.

Monday and Tuesday remain dry with weak ridging aloft. We should see a fairly nice warm up with highs approaching 70 degrees, close to seasonal values. Tuesday night and Wednesday will see the approach of another cold front. There will be some moisture return, so look for showers as a good possibility on Wednesday. Like the last front, there does not appear to be enough instability to generate any thunder with the showers.

By the end of the week, it will be getting colder, but herein lies the rub. I expect the cold air to be somewhat shallow, and the models do not typically handle shallow cold air situations very well. MOS guidance suggests highs in the 50s for Friday, but depending on the strength of this system, we might not see highs get out of the 40s. So our forecast will remain fluid for now.

Looking out into voodoo country, the pattern remains fairly active with a couple of good shots at precipitation around the 16th and again around the 20th/21st. The pattern also keeps a chilly look with a trough over the eastern half of the country.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Frost Advisory Tonight

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 21:02

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
SATURDAY…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST
SATURDAY.

* TEMPERATURES…SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 33 TO 37 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS…THE FROST WILL AFFECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TONIGHT TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

Categories: Weather

Dry Weekend; Chilly Nights

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 16:19

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COOL AUTUMN AIR: Despite a sunny sky, temperatures are over 10 degrees below average in most places across Alabama today… with temperatures generally in the mid 50s this afternoon.

Tonight will be cold; we drop into the mid 30s early tomorrow, with potential for a freeze for the colder valleys and protected areas. The NWS in Birmingham has issued a frost advisory.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: After the cold start, we rise into the low 60s tomorrow afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Sunday will be another sunny day with a high very close to 60.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tonight; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M tomorrow at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU tomorrow night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field tomorrow (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be dry and mild with a high close to 70; showers could creep into North Alabama Tuesday night ahead of a cold front.

EARLY SEASON ARCTIC SHOT: The coldest air so far this season will ease into the state late next week. Computer models won’t have a good grasp on this because initially the cold air here will be very shallow, but there is a very real chance highs will drop into the 40s over North Alabama Friday and Saturday, with potential for lows in the 20s. The weekend of November 15-16 is looking very cold at this point, but dry. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Cooler Today; Dry Weekend Ahead

Fri, 11/07/2014 - 07:21

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

COOL FALL WEATHER: Many Alabama communities enjoyed a high around 70 degrees yesterday, but today should be about 15 degrees cooler. Our forecast high today of 55 is twelve degrees below the average high of 67 for November 7. The air is dry and the sky will remain sunny.

OUR WEEKEND: It begins with a cold morning; most communities will see a low between 33 and 37 early tomorrow, but colder valleys will see a light freeze. Then, expect a good supply of sunshine tomorrow and Sunday with highs in the low 60s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tonight; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M tomorrow at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU tomorrow night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field tomorrow (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday will be relatively mild with a high around 70 degrees both days. Then, a cold front will bring the chance of a little light rain Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Unfortunately this won’t be a big rain event; Birmingham has measured only 0.47″ of rain over the past 23 days.

COLDEST AIR SO FAR: A shot of very cold, Arctic air will invade Alabama after the front on Thursday and Friday. A good chance highs drop into the 40s, with lows in the 20s for many areas. And, the cold air should linger into at least the beginning of the weekend. For now it looks like a very cold football Saturday on November 15. A few records could be challenged on these days; we will be much more specific about the timing and temperature forecasts early next week.

The new high resolution GFS model shows temperatures around here only in the low to mid 40s during the midday hours next Thursday (November 13)…

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…

Categories: Weather

Cooler Tomorrow; Dry Weekend Ahead

Thu, 11/06/2014 - 16:34

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SUNNY FALL AFTERNOON: Temperatures are close to 70 degrees across North/Central Alabama this afternoon with bright sunshine. Some clouds linger over South Alabama, but those will be gone soon.

Tomorrow, our sky will remain sunny, but the day will be cooler with a high back in the mid 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We kick things off with a very cold morning Saturday; most places will see a low between 30 and 35 degrees with a clear sky and light wind. Then, expect a good supply of sunshine during the day Saturday, and Sunday as well with a high in the 60-65 degree range both days.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tomorrow night; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff)… the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather will be dry and relatively mild Monday and Tuesday with a high close to 70 both days. Then, a cold front will bring the risk of showers Tuesday night or early Wednesday, but it won’t be a big rain event.

ARCTIC BLAST: The coldest air so far this season arrives by the end of next week; we are still projecting highs in the 40s, and lows in the 20s by Friday, Saturday, and Sunday November 14, 15, and 16. The entire eastern half of the nation will be in Arctic cold, and many records will most likely be broken.

We will be much more specific about this in coming days, but just be prepared for mid-winter type cold late next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I enjoyed seeing a group of home schoolers today at Life Church in Rainbow City… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Sunshine Returns Today

Thu, 11/06/2014 - 07:10

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: A narrow band of showers is moving through Central Alabama at daybreak, and moving south.

As expected, rain amounts overnight were light, generally 1/4 inch or less for most communities. Drier air is moving into North Alabama, and the sky becomes sunny today as we rise into the upper 60s.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: Tomorrow will be sunny, but cooler. We start the day in the 30s, and the high will be in the mid 50s. Then, expect very nice autumn weather for the weekend with sunny cool days, and clear and cold nights. Highs over the weekend will range from 60 to 65, with lows in the 35-40 degree range. Colder pockets over North Alabama could see a light freeze early Saturday morning.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games tomorrow night; temperatures will be dropping into and through the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff).. the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: A cold front will bring a few showers to the state Tuesday night and Wednesday, and then we will deal with the coldest air so far this season. The cold air won’t rush into the state; instead it will seep in here from the north Thursday and Friday (November 13-14). By the following weekend (November 15-16), we could very well see highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Only a small risk of a shower today from Panama City to Gulf Shores, otherwise sunny days and clear nights through the weekend. Highs around 70, lows mostly in the 50s on the immediate coast. The Atlantic basin also remains very quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected anytime soon.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be in Rainbow City today speaking to a home school group… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Rain Creeping Into North Alabama

Wed, 11/05/2014 - 16:31

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: The sky is cloudy over the great state of Alabama this afternoon, and some very light rain is falling over the northern counties at mid-afternoon.

Light rain will work southward tonight; the best chance of rain for places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will come from 8:00 tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. We are still projecting light rain amounts, mostly under 1/4 inch for most places. It won’t be a big rain event.

TOMORROW AND FRIDAY: The sky should clear tomorrow, with sunshine out in full force by afternoon with a high in the mid to upper 60s. Then, Friday will be sunny and cooler with a high in the 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather stays cool and dry Saturday and Sunday, with a good supply of sunshine both days. Afternoon highs will be in the low 60s, with morning lows between 37 and 42.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games Friday night; temperatures will be dropping into the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff).. the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Many signs continue to point to the coldest air so far this season arriving toward the end of the week. We will mention a risk of showers Tuesday night ahead of the cold front, otherwise the week will be dry. By Friday and Saturday (November 14-15), there is a chance highs drop into the 40s, and lows in the 20s over North Alabama thanks to a strongly negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) and a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation).

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten students at Alexandria Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Showers Arrive Tonight, Then Cooler

Wed, 11/05/2014 - 07:16

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

INCREASING CLOUDS: The sky will be generally cloudy across Alabama today with a high in the low 70s for most communities; it will be our warmest day of the week. A cold front will push a band of showers into the northwest corner of the state at some point this afternoon; rain is likely around Florence and Muscle Shoals by 5 p.m.

SHOWERS TONIGHT: The band of showers will drop southward tonight, and some rain is likely for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden, but the models have been trending drier, and unfortunately it now looks like rain amounts for this part of the state will be generally under 1/4 inch. The best chance of showers for North/Central Alabama will come from 9:00 tonight through 7:00 a.m. tomorrow.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: The sky will become mostly sunny tomorrow afternoon as drier air works back into Alabama; the high will be in the upper 60s, very close to the average high of 68 for November 6. Friday will be a cooler day, expect a sunny sky with a high in the upper 50s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Cool and dry weather continues Saturday and Sunday with a good supply of sunshine both days. We begin the weekend with a low in the upper 30s early Saturday, but we rise into the low 60s Saturday afternoon. The latest guidance has backed down somewhat on the surge of colder air for Sunday; looks like the high will be in the 57-60 degree range Sunday afternoon.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games Friday night; temperatures will be dropping into the 40s.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff).. the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like we will have the coldest air so far this season by the middle of the week, as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) go strongly negative. We are seeing evidence that highs will drop into the 40s, and lows in the 20s by Thursday and Friday…

And, we should mention the latest guidance also hints at the risk of a few showers Tuesday ahead of the Arctic front.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be doing a weather program today at Alexandria Elementary School in Calhoun County… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video this afternoon by 4:00…

Categories: Weather

Rain Returns Tomorrow Night

Tue, 11/04/2014 - 16:40

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

AWESOME AUTUMN DAY: We are enjoying sunshine through a thin veil of high altitude cirrus clouds this afternoon with temperatures very close to 70 degrees. The high clouds are actually coming from a weakening eastern Pacific tropical system called Vance near the Mexican coast. The low levels remain dry and there is no rain around here.

TOMORROW/THURSDAY: Clouds will thicken tomorrow, and rain will creep into the northwest corner of our state during the afternoon hours. Then, rain becomes likely through North/Central Alabama tomorrow night ahead of a cold front. The latest model data suggests the main window for rain will come from about 8:00 p.m. tomorrow through 8:00 a.m. Thursday. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch are likely, and while there could be a little thunder there is no risk of severe weather.

The sky should begin to clear Thursday afternoon as cooler and drier air moves into Alabama.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Our weather will be cool and dry on these three days. Friday will be mostly sunny and breezy at times with a high in the mid to upper 50s.

On Saturday we begin the day in the 30s, and the high will be up in the low 60s with a bright sunny sky. A new surge of cooler arrives Sunday with a gusty north wind; Sunday will be sunny with a high in the 50-55 degree range. Then, a freeze is likely by daybreak Monday with a low down in the low 30s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games Friday night; temperatures will be dropping through the 40s with a north wind of 7-14 mph.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff).. the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Much of next week for now looks cool and dry. And, we still project colder than average temperatures for the rest of November as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) go strongly negative. This pattern tends to flush colder air out of the Arctic/Polar regions, and down into the eastern half of the U.S.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I enjoyed seeing the senior adults this morning at Briarwood Presbyterian Church… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warming Trend Continues Today

Tue, 11/04/2014 - 07:19

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARMER IN THE SHORT TERM: We will warm to near 70 degrees across the great state of Alabama today with a good supply of sunshine as the warming trend continues. The weather begins to change tomorrow as clouds increase during the day, ahead of a weather system that will produce rain over much of Texas today.

OUR NEXT RAIN: Rain should move into far Northwest Alabama late tomorrow afternoon, with the rain expanding southward tomorrow night. For North/Central Alabama, places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden will see their main window for rain from near 9:00 p.m. tomorrow through 9:00 a.m. Thursday. The NAM is printing 0.45″ for Birmingham, and we expect rain totals near, or a little under 1/2 inch. A little thunder is possible in spots, but there is no chance of severe weather.

Thursday will be a cooler day with a high in the mid 60s; the sky clears Thursday night, and we will drop into the upper 30s by Friday morning.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Cool and dry weather is the story. Friday’s high will be in the mid to upper 50s with a cool north breeze, and early morning lows for the weekend will be in the 30s. The high Saturday will be close to 60, but another shot of colder air arrives Sunday as the high will drop back into the mid 50s with a cool north wind.

We start next week with a freeze early Monday morning; most communities will drop into the low 30s.

NEXT WEEK: For now the week is looking cool and mostly dry, but the GFS continues to advertise a significant rain event around Saturday November 15. This, of course, is voodoo for now, but model consistency in the idea has been good. That is a big football Saturday, so we will keep an eye on trends. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, but over in the eastern Pacific Vance is a rapidly weakening hurricane off the coast of Mexico; high altitude moisture from this system is streaming up into Texas toward the Great Lakes. This should enhance rain over parts of Texas today, where it is really needed.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Clear and cold weather is the story for the high school playoff games Friday night; temperatures will be dropping through the 40s with a north wind of 7-14 mph.

Auburn hosts Texas A&M Saturday at 2:30 at Jordan-Hare Stadium; the sky will be sunny with a kickoff temperature near 62 degrees, falling into the 50s by the fourth quarter.

Alabama is on the road; they take on LSU Saturday night in Baton Rouge (7:00p CT kickoff).. the sky will be mostly fair; temperatures will fall from near 60 at kickoff into the mid 50s during the second half.

UAB will host Louisiana Tech at Birmingham’s Legion Field Saturday (11:00a CT kickoff)… a sunny sky with 58 degrees at kickoff, and low 60s by the fourth quarter.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be speaking to the senior adults at Briarwood Presbyterian Church this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

WeatherBrains 458: Banner Boy

Tue, 11/04/2014 - 05:26

WeatherBrains Episode 45? is now online (November 3, 2014). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

Joining us for this episode of WeatherBrains is Lee Hutchinson from Ars Technica and Eric Berger, who is the science writer for the Houston Chronicle.

WeatherBrains 101: After clearing up a goof in last week’s 101 episode, we’ll take a look at lake effect snow. Seems like an appropriate topic with winter just around the corner and the big snow that fell in the southern Appalachians over the weekend.

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

Web Sites from Episode 458:

Picks of the Week:

Nate Johnson – Nate gets the FOGHORN!

John Scala – Genesis and maintenance of a long-track EF5 tornado embedded within a supercell thunderstorm

Rick Smith – 2014 National Weather Association Annual Meeting Tagboard

James Spann – Bill Belichick Rips Meteorologists Everywhere

SkyDavers Blog – The Fog Bank

The WeatherBrains crew includes your host, James Spann, plus other notable geeks like Nate Johnson, Bill Murray, Aubrey Urbanowicz, Dr. John Scala, Rick Smith, Kevin Selle, and Brian Peters. They bring together a wealth of weather knowledge and experience for another fascinating netcast about weather.

Categories: Weather

Rain By Wednesday Night/Thursday

Mon, 11/03/2014 - 16:19

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

FINE FALL DAY: Hardly a cloud in the Alabama sky this afternoon, with temperatures mostly in the 60s. Tonight’s weather won’t be as cold as recent nights… the sky will stay clear, and most communities will see a low between 37 and 43 degrees.

Tomorrow will feature a good supply of sunshine with a high around 70 degrees as our wearing trend continues. Mid 70s are possible Wednesday afternoon; and that should be our warmest day of the week.

RAIN RETURNS TO ALABAMA: Keep in mind we have seen only 0.36″ here during the past 19 days, so some rain is needed, and we will have a decent change of getting some Wednesday night and Thursday. For North/Central Alabama, the latest guidance hints our main window for rain comes from about 12:00 midnight Wednesday night though 12:00 noon Thursday. Rain amounts should be generally 1/2 inch or less, and while some thunder is possible, no severe weather is expected.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: Friday will be sunny and much cooler with a high in the 55-59 degree range. No rain for the weekend; the sky remains sunny Saturday and Sunday. We begin the weekend with lows in the 30s early Saturday; the high Saturday afternoon will be close to 60. Then, another shot of colder air arrives Sunday as the high drops into the 50-55 degree range with a cool north wind, and another freeze looks likely by Monday morning of next week with a low between 28 and 32 degrees for most communities.

LONG RANGE: The Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are trending negative through mid-month, which supports a mean eastern U.S. upper trough, and that should keep temperatures here below average through at least the middle of November.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CST.. you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I had a great time today visiting with the 6th graders at Berry Middle School in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Categories: Weather

Warmer This Afternoon

Mon, 11/03/2014 - 07:10

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

ANOTHER COLD START: Here are some of the colder temperatures at daybreak across the great state of Alabama…

Black Creek (just northeast of Gadsden) 28
Cottondale 29
Gadsden (Noccalula Falls) 30
Fort Payne 30
Concord 31
Montevallo 32
Anniston 33
Coker 33
Lake View 35

WARMING TREND: Today’s high will be in the mid 60s with a good supply of sunshine as we dig out of the deep freeze, and a good chance we see 70 degrees tomorrow.

MID-WEEK RAIN: An upper trough west of the state will set up a beneficial rain event for much of Texas and Oklahoma in coming days, and some of that rain should creep into Northwest Alabama Wednesday afternoon. The better chance of rain comes Wednesday night and Thursday for our state; for now it looks like rain amounts will be 1/2 inch or less for most communities. A little thunder is possible, but no risk of severe weather.

MORE COLD AIR: As the rain moves out late Thursday, another shot of colder air moves in Thursday night. But, this air won’t be as cold as what we just experienced over the weekend. Friday will be sunny with a high in the 55-59 degree range, and we will be in the low to mid 30s by daybreak Saturday as the weekend begins.

The weekend will be dry, with sunny cool days and clear cold nights. Highs 57-61; lows in the 30s again early Sunday.

The first half of next week will be dry with temperatures generally below average for early November…

GULF COAST WEATHER: Sunny on the coast from Panama City to Gulf Shores today though Wednesday with highs moving up into the 70s. Showers are likely Thursday, then sunny days and fair nights Friday through the weekend. Highs over the weekend will be in the 60s, with lows in the chilly 40s.

TROPICS: The hurricane season runs through the end of November, but no sign of any tropical mischief anytime soon in the Atlantic basin.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

I will be doing a weather program this morning at Berry Middle School in Hoover… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Sunny Sunday

Sun, 11/02/2014 - 16:46

Looking at the weather maps today, we see surface high pressure dominating the eastern half of the U.S. That 1033 millibar high (translation=pretty strong) is centered from southern Kentucky to Central Mississippi. In the mid levels and upper levels of the atmosphere, we see a big wave pattern, with a trough over the eastern U.S., a ridge in the middle and a trough in the West. Clouds that were moving in from the northwest earlier have dried out as they pushed across Arkansas and western Tennessee into northern Mississippi. Hence they will not have much of an impact on our skies through the evening.

FIRST FREEZE OF SEASON AT BIRMINGHAM: It was a cold morning across Alabama with freezing temperatures generally north of I-59 and a few thrown in down into Southwest Alabama. Birmingham fell to 28F, while Calera was 6 degrees warmer at 34F. Tuscaloosa checked in with 30F and Anniston measured 29F. Interestingly, North Alabama readings were not substantially colder. Russellville won the cold weather lottery with 25F. The 28F at Birmingham was the coldest since March 26th and the first freeze since April 16th. Most folks should stay above freezing for the next few days with the exception of Eastern Alabama, where some freezing readings will likely drop below 32F tonight.

GETTING DARK EARLY TODAY: Sunset will come much earlier today because of the Daylight Saving Time change that occurred early this morning. Hopefully you weren’t an hour early for church or brunch! Highs this afternoon will rise into the upper 50s across the area. As mentioned early, most folks will be above freezing, in the 30s tonight, except for places like Gadsden, Fort Payne and Anniston in East Alabama. But look for frost still across much of the area anyway as grass and exposed automobiles fall to below freeze after dew forms.

SUNSHINE AHEAD: Plenty of sun in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. And that surface high will slide east, giving us southerly surface winds by morning. That means moderating temperatures. With lots of sunshine, highs on Monday will be in the middle 60s with upper 60s to near 70F by Tuesday.

MIDWEEK WET WEATHER SYSTEM: Showers and storms will enter Northwest Alabama ahead of a cold front Wednesday night and will push southeastward through the state overnight. It should be weakening as it pushes toward I-59, but it will bring a soaking rain to the area late Wednesday night and early Thursday. Don’t look for great amounts of rainfall. Average amounts should be around a quarter of an inch. The GFS is a little slower with the system’s exit , keeping rain in the forecast deeper into the day on Thursday. Expect a high near 70F on Wednesday, but readings will fall back into the lower 60s on Thursday and be limited to the 50s on Friday. Lows will drop to around 40F by Friday morning.

Categories: Weather