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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 3 hours 2 min ago

Arthur Now Cat 2 – Top Winds 100 mph

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 21:49

The eye of Hurricane Arthur is skirting the coast just south of Morehead City, NC tonight.

Here is the 9 p.m. advisory summary and forecast track:

Click image to enlarge.

The issue of whether the hurricane will actually make landfall is in play. It is an academic question, cause the worst of the impacts are in the eyewall. If the eye actually stays offshore, the impacts can be worse since locations along the coast stay in the worst weather without a break.

Here is the radar from Morehead City:

Landfall is defined as the point when the geometric center of the center crosses the coast. It will be a very close call to see if the geometric center intersects the coastline at Cape Lookout for a technical landfall.

The NW Wilmington reports that a weather station at Fort Macon east of Atlantic Beach has recorded an 87 mph wind gust. This is in the northern eyewall.

Categories: Weather

Arthur Still 90 mph

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 16:07

Hurricane Arthur has continued to slowly intensify this afternoon as it is over warm water and experiencing very light wind shear. Air Force reconnaissance found a central pressure of 977 mb at 1:41 p.m. The pressure has been steadily dropping for over 24 hours, despite dry air being entrained into the storm from the west. The eye has become clearly visible on this infrared satellite image loop.

On the inbound leg of that eye penetration, the SFMR instrument (playfully known as the Smurf) estimated the surface winds at 94 mph. So the NHC is holding the winds at 90 mph, still a category one hurricane. The Hurricane Hunters just completed another penetration of the eye and we are awaiting that vortex data report.

Arthur still has about 18 hours to strengthen and will likely become a category two hurricane.

Advisory particulars:
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 35 MI…55 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI…300 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…977 MB…28.85 INCHES

Click image to enlarge.

The center of the hurricane is approximately 35 miles south of Cape Fear, or 60 miles south of Wilmington. It is a little more than 100 miles SSW of Morehead City and 1180 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras, which both may experience the eye according to the recon plots. You can see those last four center fixes on this graphic.

Click image to enlarge.

Winds at Wrightsville Beach near Wilmington were just reported sustained at 35 mph. Here is a radar image from Wilmington:

You can see the reports of a tornado in Duplin County, NC, as well as a funnel cloud. You can also see where the weather is bad under the feeder bands.

Weather is Charleston is improving rapidly now as the storm is moving away from them.

Categories: Weather

10 a.m. Notes on Arthur: Hurricane Strengthening, Will be Cat 2

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 10:19

LATE REPORT – NEW VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
…Shows pressure continues to drop. Now 980 mb.
…The SFRM instrument estimated 66 knots surface wind (77 mph).
…Max flight level wind 79 knots (92 mph).

URNT12 KNHC 031518
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL012014
A. 03/15:02:50Z
B. 32 deg 25 min N
078 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2906 m
D. 66 kt
E. 360 deg 0 nm
F. 297 deg 62 kt
G. 199 deg 18 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 13 C / 3046 m
J. 14 C / 3046 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF301 1101A ARTHUR OB 04
MAX FL WIND 62 KT 199 / 18 NM 14:57:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 79 KT 048 / 23 NM 15:10:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 16 C 179 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

ORIGINAL POST
The new advisory is out on Arthur. It has intensified to 90 mph. This is nearly a category two hurricane (threshold is 96 mph).

Click image to enlarge.

FAST FACTS 10 AM CDT
———————————————————
LOCATION…32.4N 78.5W
ABOUT 260 MI…415 KM SW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM SSW OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…981 MB…28.97 INCHES

…Radar motion over the past 90 minutes or so seems to have been directly north. This is troubling, since all of the forecasts are showing a northeasterly turn. That northeasterly turn was very apparent early this morning with the recon fixes showing it clearly. The official track is to the NNE. The forward speed has increased to 14 mph.

…The central pressure continued to drop all morning. The last report from the plane was 983 mb at 6:26 a.m. CDT. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is penetrating the center now. The NOAA3 P-3 Orion “Kermit” returned to base in Tampa for fuel. Seeing Kermit and Miss Piggy in recon reports always makes me smile.

…The P3 did measure a 91 knot max flight level wind (105 mph) at 8,000 feet.

…From the NWS Charleston: Good morning! The eye of Arthur is looking much more impressive over the past few radar volume scans, with an intense band of convection developing just northwest of the center. Buoy 41004 has been gusting to 45 knots with seas of 14 ft! It should be noted with seas that high, the buoy is likely not sampling the winds all that well and sustained winds could actually be closer to what the buoy is reporting as gusts.

…High surf and dangerous rip currents along the coast. Isle of Palms near Charleston reporting breaking waves 5-6 feet.

…A few observations from South Carolina:
…North Myrtle Beach 75F/73F with light rain/fog, SE-8 29.95R
…Mount Pleasant 77F/73F with drizzle, N 10 G 21, 29.81F
…Charleston 80F/73F with cloudy skies, N 16 G 23, 29.84F
…Folly Beach N 24 G 29
…Buoy (41 miles SE of Charleston) gusts to 52 mph
…Frying Pan Shoals Buoy is not available

…Coastal reports from the NWS Wilmington
OTHER MARINE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1107 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

…ALL SPEEDS IN KNOTS…

WIND AIR TEMP(F) WATER TEMP(F) STATION NAME
SSW 17 80 NA NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH
SE 11 72 82 WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH
ESE 5 74 M MASONBORO ISLAND
M M 74 85 WILMINGTON RIVERFRONT
CALM 0 74 NA WILMINGTON STATE PORT
NE 6 78 NA FORT FISHER
E 10 76 NA BALD HEAD ISLAND
ENE 8 75 NA SOUTHPORT
M M M NA OAK ISLAND
N 15 73 83 MYRTLE BEACH
N 8 73 84 GEORGETOWN

Categories: Weather

Humidity and Temps Down

Thu, 07/03/2014 - 06:51

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Generally some high clouds streaking across the sky of Central Alabama this morning with a somewhat unusual weather pattern for early July which I believe most people will enjoy as we get a break from the recent heat. Birmingham reached 93 for a high yesterday but still much cooler than the record for yesterday of 101.

An upper level trough moving through the Ohio River Valley along with the surface combination of Hurricane Arthur off the South Carolina coast and a surface high over Illinois have worked in our favor to bring an unusual summer cold front through the Southeast US. This set of circumstances will set us up for some drier and cooler air for the Fourth of July and the weekend and most likely keep us dry into the middle of next week.

Arthur was upgraded to a hurricane this morning and continued to be reasonably well behaved with a continued clustering of computer guidance on the track as it gradually turns northeastward along the Southeast US coast. Hurricane warnings were posted for much of the North Carolina coast where Arthur will make its closest approach to land.

The upper trough moving through the Ohio River Valley will nudge Arthur into the North Atlantic away from the US coastline over the weekend. Arthur will speed up and head into the Canadian Maritime Provinces by Sunday. Upper ridging building over the western states will keep a slight troughiness across the eastern half of the country. This generally northwesterly flow aloft will keep the heat in check as highs return to the lower 90s and keep moisture levels down into the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. A short wave trough Tuesday/Wednesday along with the gradual return of moisture will bring showers back into the forecast.

In the Eastern Pacific, we also have a decaying Tropical Storm Douglas which will remain well out to sea.

Beach goers will enjoy some dry weather over the Fourth weekend, too. There remains the possibility of isolated showers today but it should be dry Friday and Saturday with isolated showers back in the beach forecast for Sunday and early next week. Temperatures will slip back a notch with highs in the upper 80s and a good supply of sunshine each day. Water temperature along the Alabama coastal area remains in the middle 80s.

Voodoo country remains somewhat fluid as we know and the dominating feature will be upper level ridging moving from the Western US over the Central US during the middle of July. This could spell a period of some heat for much of the eastern two-thirds of the country for the middle of July, a pattern not unexpected for this time of year.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

With great weather for the Fourth, enjoy the community fireworks displays which should be unimpeded by any rain possibility. I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted on Friday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

10 p.m. Arthur

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 22:19

Arthur is on the precipice of being a hurricane and likely will become one early tomorrow.

The track has been shifted a little westward with some of the models carrying it over eastern North Carolina.

The pressure continues to fall and is down to 988 mb.

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms Across Central Alabama

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 20:23

Strong thunderstorms are across the middle of Alabama tonight. They are most intense over Bibb, Chilton, Dallas and northwestern Autauga Counties. They are not severe, but be prepared for very intense lightning, gusty winds and torrential rains.

The NWS Birmingham just issued a significant weather alert for several counties including:

NORTHERN AUTAUGA
SOUTHERN SHELBY
NORTHEASTERN PERRY
NORTHEASTERN DALLAS
NORTHWESTERN COOSA
CHILTON
EASTERN BIBB COUNTIES

UNTIL 900 PM CDT.

The alert is shown in the peach polygon. Communities that will be affected include Montevallo, Maplesville, Calera, Jemsion, Thorsby and Clanton.

There are no warnings at this time.

To the north, there is still some lightning across southern Walker and Fayette Counties.

Back to the southwest, there is still a decent storm over northern Marengo County.

The storms are moving east at about 30 mph.

They are weakening slowly. The Central Alabama storms will hold together for awhile longer, but they will eventually diminish.

Categories: Weather

An Update on the Overall Situation

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:17

Here is the warning situation at 7:10:

Thunderstorms are occurring across much of western Alabama tonight from Franklin and Marion Counties across Lamar, Pickens, Sumter, Greene, Hale, Perry and Marengo Counties.

They are moving into Winston, Fayette, Tuscaloosa and Dallas Counties.

A severe thunderstorm warning that was in effect for parts of Sumter and Greene Counties until 730 p.m. has been canceled.

A separate severe thunderstorm is over the Chilton/Coosa County border northeast of Clanton, but it is weakening. The outflow from an earlier storm that triggered the Chilton/Coosa storm has triggered a new severe thunderstorm warning for Bibb and Chilton Counties.

There are significant weather alerts for all the areas outlined in the peach color. The severe thunderstorm warnings are shown in yellow.

The storms will slowly weaken as we lose the heating of the day and instability diminishes. But it looks like they will hold together enough to make it to I-65. The Tuscaloosa area got sort of lucky as that segment of the line sort of fell apart as it approached the Druid City. The storms are a little more than 90 minutes from the Birmingham Metro, putting them in here around 9 p.m.

Trees were reported down in Lamar County along highway 96 west of Millport and in the Detroit area. That was from those high winds that were well tracked by the Columbus Doppler radar. Great job NWS Birmingham on that early warning.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Bibb/Chilton til 8 PM

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 19:08


A severe thunderstorm has developed over southeastern portions of Bibb County near the town of Randolph. It is drifting towards the southeast and will be impacting U.S. 82 and the towns of Lawley, Maplesville, Pletcher, and perhaps portions of Clanton. This storms is capable of producing damaging winds and hail, along with very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN BIBB COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
WESTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAWLEY…OR
10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JEMISON…AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CLANTON…CHILTON COUNTY MOTOR SPORTS PARK…MAPLESVILLE…
PARNELL…POOLES CROSSROADS…PLECHER…CAMPBELL AND NEW CONVERT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BIRMINGHAM.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Parts of Chilton/Coosa till 715 p.m.

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 18:34

Be ready for large hail, damaging winds, torrential rains and lots of lightning from this storm.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN CHILTON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
SOUTHWESTERN COOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAY LAKE
DAM…OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLANTON…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CLANTON…GAP OF THE MOUNTAIN…DOLLAR…HIGGINS FERRY PARK…
VERBENA…I 65 REST AREA…LOMAX AND COOPER.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 65 EXIT NUMBERS 200 THROUGH 219…

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Sumter/Greene til 7:30

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 18:28

A severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds and hail is moving east out of Mississippi and will be impacting these two counties. Travel along Interstate 20/59 as well as U.S. 11 and 80 will be impacted. This does include the University of West Alabama and the cities of Livingston, Cuba, and York.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 625 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF EMELLE TO 15 MILES
WEST OF CUBA…AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CUBA…YORK…LIVINGSTON…PANOLA…EMELLE…BOYD…GAINESVILLE AND
NEW WEST GREENE.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 23…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BIRMINGHAM.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Parts of Lamar, Marion, Pickens till 6:30 PM CDT

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:43

Severe thunderstorms are now in effect for parts of Pickens, Lamar and Winston Counties in Alabama.

The NWS warns that 60 mph winds just above the surface are shown on radar and will be moving into Lamar County in the direction of Sulligent and Detroit.

These winds will cause trees and power lines to be downed. Be in a safe place as they approach. Be in the center of a solidly built home or building, on the lowest floor when they approach.

Winds gusted to 42 mph at the Columbus Airport as the outflow arrived.

A tree was reported down just northeast of Starkville MS at 5:11 from these same storms.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…
PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 542 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SMITHVILLE TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BEVILL LOCK AND DAM…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
PICKENSVILLE…ALICEVILLE…SULLIGENT…VERNON…CARROLLTON…
MILLPORT…REFORM AND BEVILL LOCK AND DAM.

THIS INCLUDES…
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 11 THROUGH 16…

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Marengo/Sumter til 6:15 PM

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 17:25

A very strong thunderstorm has developed over West Alabama and is capable of producing damaging winds and some hail. It will be impacting the U.S. 43 and 80 corridor as well as the city of Demopolis, Linden, Faunsdale, and Dayton. This storm is also producing a lot of lightning and very heavy rainfall as it continues to drift towards the east-southeast.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN MARENGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 525 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JEFFERSON TO LINDEN…AND MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
LINDEN…DEMOPOLIS…PIN HOOK…JEFFERSON…FREDDIE JONES FIELD…
CHICKASAW STATE PARK…THOMASTON AND DAYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN BIRMINGHAM.

Categories: Weather

Arthur Nearly A Hurricane, Pressure Dropping

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 16:03

As expected, Arthur is strengthening and is very close to being a hurricane. The pressure reported by Air Force Recon is 992 millibars, down from 995mb 2 hours ago. It will likely become a hurricane tonight.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the North Carolina coast from Surf City to Duck, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Forecast track shifted just a little west. The intensity forecast is not really changed. But the global models think that the storm will increase in intensity significantly and in size of wind field. The westward shift and the increase in the wind field prompted the upgrade to hurricane warnings.

The storm continues to try to become more organized. You can see new thunderstorms building on the east side of the storm.

There are three reconnaissance planes in the storm right now sending back information on Arthur.

Categories: Weather

A Look at Alabama’s Weather This Afternoon

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 14:40

An interesting weather map this afternoon across the Southeast.

Click image to enlarge and explore.

On the visible satellite, you can clearly see tropical storm Arthur off the Northeast Coast of Florida, moving north northeast at 8 mph.

I overlaid the 500 mb height contours in green so that you can see a distinct upper level disturbance by the Mississippi River.

Radar shows intense storms along the Mississippi River north of Vicksburg. Severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect. The SPC has just issued a severe thunderstorm watch for much of Mississippi and Louisiana.

This activity will track eastward along a stalled frontal boundary that lies generally along I-59. You can see that in the top left panel. Temperatures are around 90F north ofthe front and in the middle 90s to the south.

The HRRR model indicates that the storms will weaken as they push into Alabama after 7 p.m. Here is the model reflectivity for 8 p.m.:

But they are dissipated a couple of hours later according to the model.

We will keep out eyes on them.

Categories: Weather

The New Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 12:26

It is time to start learning about the new NWS Experimental Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map. The first ones were issued last evening by the National Hurricane Center for Arthur.

A few notes:

…The graphic shows a reasonable idea of worst-case scenario surge flooding from the storm. It is a map of the POTENTIAL flooding. It shows areas that COULD be affected by storm surge flooding, not necessarily how much water will be over each location in the shaded areas.

…There is a 10% exceedance factor, meaning that there is a 1 in 10 chance that the surge at any location could be higher.

…The flooding shows is only due to surge from the ocean, not rainfall flooding or flooding due to levee breaks or trapping.

…The product does take into account uncertainty in the track, size and intensity of the storm.

…Remember that weather conditions can change and so will this map.

…It is not a flood plain map. Storm surge can occur in areas that are NOT in a flood plain. Surge can occur miles inland.

…Evacuation zones may not correspond exactly with the surge flood map. People in evacuation aras should heed the advice of local emergency managers always.

…Remember that storm surge can occur well below and even after the center of the storm passes. In Ike on the Bolivar Peninsula, storm surge cut off evacuation routes nearly 36 hours before the arrival of the center.

…The product will be issued when hurricane or tropical storm watches are issued for any part of the Gulf or East Coasts of the United States.

Here is the current map from Advisory #7 at 10 a.m. this morning:

Zooming in on the Charleston SC area, a place that is very vulnerable to water inundation. The yellow shading indicates locations that could receive over 3 feet of flooding above ground, but less than 6 feet. The “above ground” indication is important since it takes into account land elevation. Keep in mind the 10% chance it could be

Take time to familiarize yourself with the product if you have interests along the Gulf of East Coast so that you will be ready to use it when a hurricane or tropical storm threatens.

Here is a short video on the product from the National Hurricane Center:

Categories: Weather

Melbourne Radar Loop

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:51

Categories: Weather

Notes on Arthur

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 10:22

I will keep some notes going today on here about Arthur, updating them at the top of the post until the next advisory comes out.

AT 10 AM CDT
———————————————–
LOCATION…29.1N 79.1W
ABOUT 105 MI…165 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…60 MPH…95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

Click image to enlarge

As you can see from the updated graphic, tropical storm warnings have now been issued for the entire North Carolina coast.

There is still a tropical storm watch for a portion of the South Carolina coast.

There is a hurricane watch for the Outer Banks.

There are numerous tropical storm warnings in effect for the coastal waters offshore.

The official forecast track has been nudged slightly east but brings the center within 50 miles of Cape Hatteras during the pre-dawn hours Friday.

The wind probabilities are about the same as late last night, except they have increased slightly on the Outer Banks for tropical storm force winds, around 75-80%.

SATELLITE
The storm ingested a little dry air last night and took a hit in appearance, but it appears to be moistening again this morning. Tropical cyclones are like little steam engines, puffing up and down as thunderstorms develop and mature. Arthur is starting to look stronger on satellite.

INTENSITY
Arthur is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and should peak at around 85 mph in intensity before it starts to weaken and lose tropical characteristics as it races northeast ahead of the approaching trough, moving over colder water.

RECON
No planes in the storm right now, but there are two low level missions that will reconnoiter the storm all day and night starting around noon. There are also three NOAA flights scheduled, including a high altitude flight for this evening.

Categories: Weather

Hot and Mostly Dry but Cooler Ahead

Wed, 07/02/2014 - 06:55

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Tuesday was a warm day with a cumulus field and no activity on radar. Today with the approach of a weak frontal boundary, we might see the development of an isolated thunderstorm or two, but we’ve also seen some pretty significant warming to the lower atmosphere and I expect we remain mostly dry with one of the hottest days so far for 2014. With highs climbing into the middle 90s and some spots getting into the upper 90s, we will also see heat indices climb into the 100 to 105 range.

Additionally some dry air aloft around 700 millibars has increased the microburst potential for the area. If we see convection initiate, we will need to watch for storms to become briefly severe with damaging wind the big threat.

The surface high off to our northwest, the significant trough moving across the Ohio River Valley, and the development of Arthur off the East Coast of Florida will combine to bring some drier and cooler air into North and Central Alabama for July 4th!

Arthur has continued to improve in structure with an interesting view from the Melbourne, FL, radar. There has been some indication of a restructuring of the center which has taken the position of Arthur slightly east of the earlier location. Radar animation shows a rather slow northward travel to the center. Because of the restructuring to the storm, the forecast track has been adjusted slight east of the track we saw yesterday. Also tropical storm and hurricane watches have been issued for a large portion of the Carolina coastline.

The trough moving through the Ohio River Valley moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday and this will take Arthur out into the northern Atlantic after it moves very closely by the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The northwesterly flow aloft and the drier air coming from the north will bring us a great July 4th with high temperatures dropping back into the upper 80s.

Moisture will gradually increase over the weekend with upper level ridging over the southern tier of the US into the first of next week. This should bring us back to a more summer time type pattern with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as highs climb back into the lower 90s.

Beach goers will see warm weather at the beach for the next several days with only isolated showers possible. Highs will be around 90 on the immediate coast and into the middle 90s inland. Sunshine should be in good supply with 7 to 9 hours of good sun.

Voodoo country was dominated by a huge upper high on the run yesterday. Today, just as we see fairly often, the pattern has changed with a deep trough along the eastern seaboard with the big ridge over the western states. This pattern, if it verifies, would keep the heat in check for the eastern US. Ah, but what will tomorrow bring?

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

The next Weather Xtreme Video is planned for 7 to 8 am on Thursday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Arthur He Does As He Pleases

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 22:08

The references to the Christopher Cross song from the movie Arthur are irresistible as we track our first tropical storm of the Atlantic season. Someone said today that it will only affect areas between the moon and New York City. Gotta love that one. My contribution is the title of this post.

First, let us reiterate that Arthur will have no direct impact on our weather in Alabama or the weather along the northern Gulf Coast. It will have a small, indirect hand in making the weather better through the Fourth of July weekend.

But, Arthur is a potential worst case scenario for forecasters and emergency managers. We have a relatively weak storm that has the potential to grow in to a significant hurricane pretty quickly while only a short distance from a coastline crowded with holiday vacationers.

Arthur will be strengthening more tomorrow while tracking more northeastward about 100 miles off the coast of northeastern Florida. It should become a hurricane tomorrow or tomorrow night.

By Thursday morning, the center should be about 125 miles southeast of Charleston, South Carolina and by nightfall, it should be about 80 miles southeast of Myrtle Beach.

The center may pass right over the Outer Banks of North Carolina early Friday morning as a strong Cat 1 hurricane with top winds of 85 mph.

Here is the NWS National Digital Forecast Database representation of the storm at 1 a.m. Friday morning, depicted in the wind field.

On the graphic, I have overlain the probabilities of tropical storm force winds (39 mph – blue), strong tropical storm force winds (58 mph – yellow) and hurricane force winds (74 mph – red) on the little colored number stacks. You can see about an even chance places like Charleston and Myrtle Beach will see tropical storm force winds and a better chance along the North Carolina coast.

Click image to enlarge

The best chance for hurricane force winds will be along the Outer Banks, but based on the official forecast, the probability for hurricane force winds there is still only about 20%. Hurricane force winds will be most likely along much of the Outer Banks early Friday morning, with improving conditions later in the day on the Fourth.

I have overlain the wind swatch along the official track as well, shown in blue, gray and red for TS, strong TS and hurricane force.

There is a tropical storm watch (shown in yellow) along the East Coast of Florida.

The impact to the South Carolina coast will not be tremendous, with a nearly even chance of tropical storm force winds. With the onshore flow ahead of the center, ides will be high, and there will almost certainly be flooding Charleston where it floods with any good inshore wind.

It is important to note that the forecast track can have errors. In fact, the “cone of uncertainty” from the NHC could carry the center as far west of Charleston SC or take it 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras. The good news is that the strongest wind field will be on the east, or oceanic, side of the storm.

The storm will quickly lose tropical characteristics as it races northeast, reaching Nova Scotia Saturday afternoon and Newfoundland Sunday evening.

If you are traveling to South Carolina or eastern North Carolina over the holiday weekend, check the latest forecasts and emergency information.

Categories: Weather

First Tropical Storm of the 2014 Season

Tue, 07/01/2014 - 10:20

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Tropical Depression One to Tropical Storm Arthur. The complete text of the advisory is below.

Arthur is expected to move slowly northward along the East Coast of Florida for the next couple of days as seen in the track graphic and gradually gaining strength as it curves northeastward Thursday and Friday become a hurricane near the coast of North Carolina. Track guidance is looking good because of the strong similarity of the various models.

Arthur is not expected to have any direct impact on Alabama. Sinking motion on the western side of the storm will help to keep convection suppressed for the latter half of the week. Strong northerly flow aloft will bring some drier and slightly cooler air to our area for the Fourth of July.

-Brian-

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 79.3W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 44 MPH...70 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TODAY. RAINFALL...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Categories: Weather