ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 14 min 8 sec ago

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Winston County

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:40

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN WINSTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 538 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
HACKLEBURG TO LAKE BUTTAHATCHEE…AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
HALEYVILLE…NEEDMORE…ASHRIDGE…WINSTON FREE STATE BARN…
MORELAND…BRUSHY LAKE…INMANFIELD AND DELMAR.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning for Tuscaloosa County

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:17

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 513 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR JENA…OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF GORDO…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
TUSCALOOSA…NORTHPORT…HOLT…COKER…LAKE LURLEEN STATE PARK…
TUSCALOOSA AMPHITHEATER…BRYANT DENNY STADIUM…LAKE TUSCALOOSA
BINION CREEK LANDING…SAMANTHA AND DEERLICK CREEK CAMPGROUNDS.

Categories: Weather

The Big Picture

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:16

A line of intense thunderstorms, including some that are severe and even tornadic, is surging across western Alabama now.

The NWS has issued a tornado warning for parts of Marion County. An intense line of storms, showing strong signs of producing damaging winds, are moving across western Franklin, Marion and Pickens Counties. A tornado warning also continues for parts of Lamar County. Damaging winds and spin up tornadoes are likely with these storms.

Intense storms are over much of Pickens, Greene and Sumter Counties. They are pushing toward Tuscaloosa County and will move into Hale County as well. Tornado warnings are in effect for parts of Sumter, Greene and Pickens Counties. These cells have had a history of producing tornado damage, including some significant damage near Rose Hill in Jasper County, southwest of Meridian.

Look for a tornado warning to be issued for Tuscaloosa County soon.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Marion County until 6PM

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:14

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 510 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THESE DANGEROUS
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
WESTON TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF WESTON TO BEAVERTON…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
HAMILTON…WESTON…GUIN…BRINN…HACKLEBURG…LAKE
BUTTAHATCHEE…RANKIN FITE AIRPORT…MARION COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE…
PIKEVILLE AND TWIN.

THIS INCLUDES…
US 78 EXIT NUMBERS 3 THROUGH 26…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

Categories: Weather

Dangerous Situation in Lamar County

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 18:07

A dangerous situation is occurring in Lamar County where an intense line of storms is pushing into Lamar County.

It shows strong indications of producing damaging winds and there are at least two possible tornadic circuations. One is near Vernon, the other near Sulligent.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning for Lamar County

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:44

Dangerous storms entering Lamar County have produced damage in Columbus MS.

Numerous trees are reported down in Columbus.

Everyone in Lamar County should be in safe shelter.

The most dangerous part of the storm is just west of Vernon.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 442 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF RAIN-WRAPPED TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE. THESE DANGEROUS
STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CALEDONIA TO CALEDONIA TO COLUMBUS…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
VERNON…SULLIGENT…BEDFORD…LAMAR COUNTY AIRPORT…CREWS…
BEAVERTON…BLOOMING GROVE…LAMAR COUNTY PUBLIC LAKE…MELBORNE
AND STAR.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Greene/Pickens/Sumter until 5:15PM

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:35

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SOUTHERN PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 433 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF EMELLE…OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LIVINGSTON…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ALICEVILLE…PANOLA…NEW WEST GREENE…WEST GREENE…UNION…
MANTUA…BENEVOLA…JENA…GEIGER AND WARSAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning Sumter County until 5:15 PM

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:28

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF CUBA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
YORK…LIVINGSTON…BOYD…EMELLE…THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST
ALABAMA…BLUFFPORT…EPES…GAINESVILLE…I 20 WELCOME CENTER AT
CUBA AND OLD MALLARD AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 23…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning for Sumter County

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:03

LATE UPDATE AT 4:12 PM
The storm has lost its circulation, so the NWS has canceled the tornado warning for Sumter County. The severe thunderstorm warning continues for part of Pickens County.

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a tornado warning for Sumter County for the storm near Cuba. It is moving northeast and should pass near York, just west of Livingston and in the general directions of Boligee and Gainesville. This storm is in a prime location to be tornadic behind the warm front with excellent low level shear and a decent amount of instability.

This storm will move into northern Greene and then into southeastern Pickens or Tuscaloosa Counties after that.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 400 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR CUBA…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CUBA…YORK…LIVINGSTON…BOYD…THE UNIVERSITY OF WEST ALABAMA…
BLUFFPORT…EPES…GAINESVILLE…OLD MALLARD AIRPORT AND
PAYNEVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 1 THROUGH 23…

Categories: Weather

Confirmed Tornado in Eastern Mississippi, Will Affect Alabama Soon

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 17:01

Storms over eastern Mississippi have become severe this afternoon.  A couple have even become tornadic with confirmed tornado damage in the Rose Hill area southwest of Meridian.   A significant tornado debris signature was observed on radar and spotters confirmed there was a large and extremely dangerous tornado on the ground.

This storm is passing just west of Meridian at this time. It still has a tornado warning on it. It will pass into northern Sumter County and southern Pickens Counties in West Alabama between 4:30 and 4:45 p.m.

Another tornadic cell is just behind the first one, near Paulding MS. It could affect Sumter County later as well.

A quick check of sever weather parameters in that area shows that CAPE values are above 500 j/kg and there is significant low level shear on the order of 350 m2/s2 for surface – 1 km helicity. This is certainly conducive to the formation of tornadoes.

To the north in Mississippi, severe severe thunderstorm warnings are in effect for North Central Mississippi. A severe storm is poised to move into Starkville in the next 10 minutes. The NWS Jackson is upgraded that warning to a tornado warning now.

A tornado watch is in effect until 8 p.m. for West Central Alabama.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Pickens County until 4:45 PM

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:57


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 353 PM CST…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF NEW WEST GREENE…OR
8 MILES SOUTH OF ALICEVILLE…AND MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ALICEVILLE…CARROLLTON…GORDO…REFORM…MCMULLEN…GARDEN…
BENEVOLA AND GEORGE DOWNER AIRPORT.

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN ALABAMA.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch until 8PM

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 16:19

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS
MISSISSIPPI TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF TUSCALOOSA ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BIBB JEFFERSON PERRY
WALKER
MARION WINSTON
FAYETTE GREENE HALE
LAMAR MARENGO PICKENS
SUMTER TUSCALOOSA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALICEVILLE…BIRMINGHAM…BRENT…
CARROLLTON…CENTREVILLE…DEMOPOLIS…EUTAW…FAYETTE…
GREENSBORO…HALEYVILLE…HAMILTON…HOOVER…JASPER…LINDEN…
LIVINGSTON…MARION…MOUNDVILLE…SULLIGENT…TUSCALOOSA…
UNIONTOWN…VERNON AND YORK.

Categories: Weather

Upgraded Severe Weather Risk

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 15:29

SPC has expanded and upgraded the severe weather risk for parts of Alabama and Mississippi through tonight…

The “enhanced risk” is the highest threat level… followed by “slight”, and then “marginal”…

Severe storms are possible in West Alabama as early as 3:30-4:00 p.m. Then the risk moves eastward through the evening.

Categories: Weather

Storms Followed by Cold

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:14

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Stormy weather later today will be followed by a big chill later in the week. Central Alabama is under a flash flood watch as we expect a dual threat with flash flooding a possibility along with a marginal threat for severe weather mainly in the form of damaging straight line wind.

CAPE values go into the range of 700 to 1000 j/kg later today and into the evening hours, so the best threat for severe weather comes from about 4 pm to midnight or so. A closed low over the Texas Panhandle will be jetting out to the northeast today and tonight and going positively tilted, so it will help add to the overall lift across the area. The storms are likely to come as discrete cells this afternoon followed by a squall line with embedded strong storms. Be sure to have a way to get weather warnings.

The upper level closed low ejects as an open wave, but we see a major long wave trough being carved out of the Central and eastern US. This will bring us some rather chilly weather for the early portion of January. Come Wednesday and Thursday, I would not be surprised to find us having trouble getting out of the 30s. And those places that do are likely to only reach the lower 40s so it will be a raw day.

We should stay dry until late into next weekend when the next storm system begins to take shape as moisture returns to the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Highs by next Saturday will reach the lower 50s, colder than we typically see for early January.

The weather pattern stays active into week 2 with another cold looking trough around the 15th with still another short wave around the 18th. So I wouldn’t be putting away the winter coats for awhile.

I’m still in Santa Monica, CA, so the Weather Xtreme Videos will be posted a little later than usual due to the two hour time difference between Central Alabama and my location in California. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 10:00 am or so on Sunday. Enjoy the day, but be safe!

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

First Tornado Watch of 2015 Issued

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 12:12

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1105 AM UNTIL
600 PM CST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA LOUISIANA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OVER SOUTHEAST LA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL POSE
A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch Likely Coming Soon to the West

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 11:35

The SPC is currently working on issuing a tornado watch for areas to the west of Alabama. This initial watch is not expected to include any portion of Alabama. However, as the storm system shifts east, the watches will be shifted east as well. Stay weather aware heading into the afternoon and evening as strong and severe storms will be possible, with the threat of damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and flash flooding.

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL/SRN MS…ERN LA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…PRE-FRONTAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION…COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM
10 W UOX TO 20 W JAN TO 30 W HEZ TO 30 NW LFT AS OF 16Z. FROM THE
JAN AREA SWD TO THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY…A
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 65-70 DEG F SURFACE DEW
POINTS WAS PREVALENT. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT WARM
SECTOR TCU/CBS HAVE INITIATED OFFSHORE S OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY. RECENT
HRRR RUNS AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN
SIMULATING STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE CONVECTION AS IT SPREADS INLAND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE HRRR
APPEARS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THIS WARM
CONVEYOR ACTIVITY.

DESPITE MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/JAN
RAOBS…SLIGHT SURFACE HEATING IN THE 72-74 DEG F RANGE ACROSS ERN
LA IS ALREADY ADEQUATE FOR MLCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG. VEERED LOW-LEVEL
WINDS /STRONGER WITH NRN EXTENT/ SUGGEST HODOGRAPHS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY LARGE…BUT CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS ERN LA
INTO SRN MS BETWEEN ABOUT 19-22Z.

Categories: Weather

Active Day Ahead

Sat, 01/03/2015 - 01:18

Parts of Central, West and Southwest Alabama are under the standard “slight risk” of severe weather today and tonight, with a lower end “marginal risk” farther north and east…

A dynamic storm system will bring a push of warm, moist air up into Alabama today, and we expect a high close to 70 degrees this afternoon. While a few passing showers are possible during the morning and early afternoon hours, the most active weather comes after 4:00 p.m….

Storms will be capable of producing strong, perhaps damaging winds, some small hail, and maybe even an isolated short lived tornado or two.

Additional rain amounts of 2 inches are expected, and some localized flooding issues are certainly possible. A flash flood watch has been issued for parts of North Alabama…

ARCTIC BLAST: One quick note about next week… new guidance is suggesting much of North Alabama will stay below freezing all day Thursday of the coming week as Arctic air rolls into Alabama. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like it will stay for a long period of time, and we do not expect any wintry precipitation issues. The low early Thursday will be in the teens.

Brian will be along in a bit with a new meteorological discussion… and we will have frequent updates on the situation throughout the day.

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms Possible Tomorrow Night

Fri, 01/02/2015 - 16:10

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: Pretty nasty weather for Alabama today; cold and wet. Rain continues to fall, with temperatures only in the 40s from Birmingham north, and low 50s to the south. There have even been a few elevated thunderstorms in the cold air.

Periods of rain will continue tonight; temperatures will remain steady, or actually rise slowly during the night.

WARMER TOMORROW; STRONG STORMS: A surge of warmer air will move up from the south tomorrow, and we have a decent chance of reaching 70 degrees; quite the contrast to today’s cold weather. During the day, a few passing showers and storms are likely, but it won’t rain all day, and the sun might even break out briefly a few times.

As the main dynamic support arrives late tomorrow and tomorrow night, and with moist, unstable air in place, the stage is set for the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama. The guys at SPC (the Storm Prediction Center) have expanded the standard “slight risk” of severe weather; it now includes much of West Alabama, generally along and west of U.S. 43. The rest of North and Central Alabama is in a “marginal risk”, which is a lower end threat.

TIMING: The main window for strong to severe storms will come from roughly 2:00 p.m. tomorrow through 1:00 a.m. Sunday.

MODES: Storms tomorrow night could produce hail and strong, possibly damaging winds. An isolated tornado is also possible. Keep in mind the primary threat of severe storms is over the western third of Alabama, with a lower risk to the east.

RAIN TOTALS: Storm totals of 2 inches are likely, with some spots possibly getting over three inches of rain by early Sunday. Some localized flooding issues are possible.

BIRMINGHAM BOWL: It will be a very comfortable day for the Florida/East Carolina game at Legion Field (the game kicks off at 11:00a CT). A few passing showers are possible during the game, and a thunderstorm is not out of the question. But, on the positive side, the sun could break out at times, and temperatures will rise from the low 60s at kickoff, to near 70 degrees by the fourth quarter.

SUNDAY: The rain ends Sunday morning, and colder air moves into the state with lingering clouds. Temperatures will hold in the 50s during the day Sunday, and the sky should clear Sunday night with upper 20s likely by daybreak Monday.

ARCTIC AIR NEXT WEEK: Monday will be mostly sunny with a high in the 40s, but the coldest air blows in here Wednesday with a stiff north wind. The 12Z GFS is printing a low of 17 degrees for Birmingham at daybreak Thursday, followed by a high only in the upper 30s Thursday afternoon. Another hard freeze is likely early Friday morning, followed by a warming trend. The air will be dry, and no wintry precipitation is expected during the short lived cold wave.

See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for my next Weather Xtreme video by Monday morning at 7:00 a.m…. Brian Peters will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Categories: Weather

Wet Is The Word

Fri, 01/02/2015 - 06:37

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A COLD RAIN: We begin this second day of 2015 with low clouds, rain, and temperatures in the 40s across the great state of Alabama. Expect periods of rain through tonight; the high today will be in the low to mid 50s at best; many communities north of Birmingham will hold in the 40s all day. Not exactly Chamber of Commerce weather.

WARMER/STORMY TOMORROW: A strong low level southerly flow will push warm, unstable air northward tomorrow; the GFS is printing a high of 70 degrees for Birmingham, with dewpoints surging into the low to mid 60s by late afternoon. We will maintain a good chance of occasional showers and storms during the day, although there should be some breaks in the rain. You might even see a very brief glimpse of the sun if you are lucky between the showers.

As the main dynamics approach tomorrow night, thunderstorms over Alabama will increase in coverage and intensity. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for the southwest corner of the state, including Mobile, with a lower end “marginal risk” as far north as Livingston and Demopolis…

We note a low level jet of 50-60 knots along with low level bulk shear to 25 knots over the northern half of the state, but the limiting factor will be, as usual in cold season events, the degree of instability. Seems like the higher risk of severe weather will come over the southern half of the state, but dynamic weather systems like this can bring surprises, so we will watch trends closely. The higher chance of the stronger storms for Alabama will come from about 6:00 p.m. tomorrow through 3:00 a.m. Sunday.

RAIN TOTALS: Seems like most Alabama communities will see 1-2 inches of rain from this system, with isolated amounts to 3 inches. This suggests no major flooding problems, although some localized issues are certainly possible with the heavier downpours tomorrow night. There are no flash flood watches for our state.

SUNDAY: The rain will end Sunday morning; the day will be cloudy, breezy, and colder with temperatures holding in the 50s. Some North Alabama towns could fall into the 40s Sunday afternoon with a brisk northwest wind. Then, the sky will clear Sunday night as drier air works in here.

NEXT WEEK: Monday looks mostly sunny with a high in the upper 40s, but even colder air rolls in here Wednesday with a biting north wind. We might hold in the 30s all day Wednesday, followed by a low down in the 17-21 degree range at daybreak Thursday. Thankfully this “Arctic blast” won’t last too long as a warming trend begins Friday. The week looks dry with no winter precipitation worries. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

BIRMINGHAM BOWL: The Florida Gators will take on East Carolina in the annual Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field tomorrow; the kickoff is at 11:00 a.m. The good news is that the weather will be warmer; we project a kickoff temperature of 62 degrees, rising into the mid to upper 60s by the fourth quarter. On the negative side, occasional showers are likely, so take the rain gear.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Thanks to Brian Peters, Bill Murray, J.P. Spann, and Meaghan Thomas for covering for me over the past few days; the time off was appreciated. I will crank out another Weather Xtreme video later today; it should be posted by 4:00 p.m. Enjoy the day!

Categories: Weather

Happy New Year!

Thu, 01/01/2015 - 07:15

*** No Weather Xtreme Video this morning ***

Greetings from the Big Easy, site of one of the semifinal games in the inaugural College Football Playoff. Brian has Pasadena covered and I will cover New Orleans, one of America’s gem cities. And I will get to share a morning discussion with you!

HAPPY NEW YEAR! Are you enjoying some traditional New Year’s Day lucky food? Spaniards ate 12 grapes last night for each stroke of midnight. Maybe you’re having greens, symbolizing folded money. Or black-eyed peas, representing coins. I hope that you and your family have a prosperous 2015!

FOOTBALL CAST: It is one of my favorite days, watching college football. And our two state SEC teams are in the thick of the New Years Day action. Auburn is in Tampa for a date with Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl.

Auburn fans will have gorgeous weather today, with lots of sunshine and highs in the 70s. Can’t beat that.

‘Bama fans will encounter cloudy skies today with showers starting to bubble around game time. Luckily the game is indoors, but tailgating, and walks to and from the Superome could be a little damp. I think the really heavy rain holds off until after the game. Revelers in the Quarter late tomorrow wright may get wet. It is chilly by New Orleans standards, with temperatures today in the 50s and there the mercury will stay overnight tonight. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the upper 60s.

FROST ON THE PUMPKIN: Brian Peters is waking to a little frost this morning as he prepares to go watch his beloved Florida State Seminoles play in their national semifinal game. Lows there this morning were in the lower and middle 30s. Highs today will not be very California-like, in the upper 50s, more like New Orleans will be today.

RAIN ON THE WAY: Today is a transition day for Central Alabama. Our next weather maker is a huge upper level low that we find over Arizona. That system brought heavy snow to Wickenburg AZ near Phoenix yesterday! Ten inches fell near Flagstaff. Temperatures over the Rockies this morning are running some 15-30 degrees below normal. There is an active southern branch of the Jetstream from Baja California across Texas and then over the Southeast. A low pressure system will develop to our west, and as it does, it will propel a warm front northward. This warm front will produce rain across Central Alabama starting tonight and lasting into Friday. Then a cold front will push our way, bringing more showers and thunderstorms to the state. We will be in the 40s this afternoon but 60s will be common on Saturday. There will be some thunder involved on Saturday, but severe weather should not be a problem. We will be watching. Flooding is not expected to be a problem, but 1 to 3 inches, as expected, could cause problems if it falls quickly enough. The rain will end on Sunday as a cold front passes. Next week should be cool and dry with temperatures around 50F by day and 30s at night.

NEXT RAIN CHANCES: Another system shows up around Saturday, one week from today.

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WEATHERBRAINS: Greg Carbin was this guest on this week’s show. Check out the show at www.WeatherBrains.com. You can also subscribe on iTunes.

ON THIS DATE IN 1916: Rainmaker Charles Hatfield set up his equipment in San Diego, California. It had been bone dry in San Diego for months. Desperate for rain, the City Council had approved his proposal to fill the city’s near empty reservoir for $10,000. The self-proclaimed meteorologist used towers holding barrels of boiling secret chemicals. His claim was that he didn’t make the rain, he attracted the clouds and the rains just came. Soon afterwards, it began to rain in Southern California. Problem was, ot didn’t stop. Flooding resulted and on the 27th a dam on Lake Moreno collapsed, with large loss of life. Many people filed lawsuits against Hatfield, but the suits were dismissed because the event was an Act of God. The city refused to pay hatfield for his services since it was an Act of God. Hatfield’s life would be turned into a play, a novel and eventually Burt Lancaster would play him in the 1956 film The Rainmaker. You can find a statue erected to Hatfield at Lake Moreno. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter. I am @wxhistorian at Twitter.com.

Categories: Weather