ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

It has been a very active weather day across Alabama. Little to no severe weather has occurred, but tremendous amounts of rain have been falling with the ongoing convection. Numerous reports of flash flooding in areas that have seen the rain. Birmingham set a daily rainfall record at over 3 inches for the day, and it is still falling at the airport. Flash flood warning remains in effect for Jefferson and Tuscaloosa Counties for a few more hours.

All this activity continues to slowly push to south and east. Heavy rain is still falling across the Birmingham Metro. The more intense storms currently are over Tallapoosa and Chambers Counties on the eastern side of the state. West and along Interstate 65, storms are causing frequent lightning, some small hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours from Calera, and Clanton west to Marion,Greensboro, Demopolis and Livingston.

Flash flooding is the main and serious concern for the rest of the evening. Not expecting severe weather, but flooding rain will continue to fall. Numerous roads have been reported as impassible across the state, and make sure you do not drive through a flooded roadway. TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 545 PM CDT…SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TUSCALOOSA COUNTY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH ANOTHER 2
INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THESE STORMS WEAKEN.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AROUND THE CITY OF TUSCALOOSA WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

The previous flash flood warning for Jefferson County expired. With additional heavy rain moving back into the county, the Weather Service has issued a new flash flood warning. This warning does include Downtown Birmingham as well as the Interstates Highway system around the county. Heavy tropical downpours continues to fall on already saturated grounds. Be careful, we are still in the middle of rush hour and please do not drive through flooded roadways…TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 530 PM CDT…AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY WHICH HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE CURRENT FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS
THE COUNTY.

AREA CREEKS WITHIN THE COUNTY WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RAPID
FLUCTUATIONS IN WATER LEVELS. FIVE MILE CREEK IN TARRENT AND VILLAGE
CREEK IN ENSLEY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME MINOR OVERFLOW OF CREEK
LEVELS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…BESSEMER…
BIRMINGHAM…FAIRFIELD…FULTONDALE…GARDENDALE…HOMEWOOD…
HUEYTOWN…IRONDALE…MOUNTAIN BROOK…VESTAVIA HILLS…
ADAMSVILLE…ALABAMA ADVENTURE…B.J.C.C….BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT…
BIRMINGHAM FAIRGOUNDS…BIRMINGHAM SOUTHERN COLLEGE…BLUFF PARK…
BON AIR…BRIGHTON…BROOKSIDE…CARDIFF…CENTER POINT…
CONCORD…ENSLEY…FORESTDALE…GRAYSVILLE…KETONA LAKES…
KINGSTON…LEGION FIELD AND LIPSCOMB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

THE 2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS OFF TO A QUICK START AS WE NOW HAVE THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON. THIS AFTERNOON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS  AS WELL AS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THIS REASON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.

HERE IS THE LATEST ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ANDREA.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…25.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 310 MI…500 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI…510 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 600 PM EDT…2200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. ANDREA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH…6 KM/H. A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION
AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON THURDAY AND THAT GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING…AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH…65 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES…
220 KM…MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 1002 MB…29.59 INCHES.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BOCA GRANDE TO OCHLOCKNEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON…MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND
IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO APALACHICOLA…2 TO 4 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY…1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS
ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN
VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL…ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…EASTERN PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE…AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA…WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES…ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

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HIT AND MISS: Storms are scattered across Alabama this afternoon… Tuscaloosa reports sunshine at mid-afternoon with 90 degrees, while Birmingham had a tropical downpour with road flooding and temperatures in the low 70s. Flash flood warnings are up for parts of Jefferson and St. Clair counties; earlier Blount County was under a flash flood warning. The storms are moving slowly to the east/north, and some spots have received over 4 inches of rain directly under the heavier, slow moving downpours.

Below is a look at flooding on 24th Street South in Birmingham (at 3 p.m.)… from @heathwill

The B’ham Airport has measured over three inches of rain since 2:30 (3.01″ as I write this).

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: An axis of deep, tropical moisture stays in place, so we will continue to forecast scattered to numerous showers and storms both days. Like today, some spots could see heavy rain; highs will be in the low to mid 80s and the sky will be generally cloudy.

WATCHING THE GULF: **Update… NHC will upgrade the system in the Gulf to Tropical Storm Andrea within the hour*
Andrea will move slowly northeast, and the RPM model puts the center into the coast near Apalachicola, Florida tomorrow evening. Very rough surf and dangerous rip tides all along the Gulf Coast, and very heavy rain east of the low pressure center. The heaviest rain directly from the tropical low will come from the Florida Peninsula… and up the East Coast of the U.S.

BEACH BOUND? The most widespread rain will come from Destin and Panama City eastward tomorrow… while showers will be more scattered at Gulf Shores and Pensacola. Again we stress dangerous rip tides are likely all along the Central Gulf tomorrow. Then, for Friday and the weekend, about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day with a few scattered showers or storms (typical for June). Highs hold in the 80s… and water temperatures are generally near 80 degrees.

OUR WEEKEND: Drier air drops into the state, and we should be mostly dry (the northern half of Alabama) Saturday and Sunday with only a slight risk of a shower. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s over the weekend.

Next week we expect the hottest weather so far this year with low 90s likely Monday through Wednesday… showers should be few and far between thanks to an upper high overhead. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Several hours of heavy rain are causing flash flooding conditions across the county. Centre, Cedar Bluff and Ringgold are included in this warning along with Highways 411, 68, 35, 273 and 9. Locations all around Weiss Lake can expect to see flooding conditions.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 400 PM CDT…EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR ESTIMATES RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS CHEROKEE
COUNTY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL NEAR THE CEDAR BLUFF AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…CEDAR
BLUFF…CENTRE…CENTRE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT…FORNEY…CORNWALL
FURNACE PARK…GAYLESVILLE…MOSHAT…PLEASANT GAP…TENNALA AND
WEISS LAKE.

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS BOUNDARY AVENUE IN CEDAR BLUFF IS
IMPASSIBLE AND WATER IS CONTINUING TO RISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

For the last few hours, very heavy rain has been falling across portions of eastern Jefferson and western St. Clair Counties. Some areas have received over 2-3 inches of rain. As storms continue to develop and back build to the southwest, flooding conditions are being reported and are expected to continue to develop and worsen. This warning includes heavily populated areas of Jefferson County including downtown Birmingham. Do not drive through flooded streets. Also, areas along Interstates 65 and 20/59 are being impacted by this intense rainfall.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 242 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF RAINFALL PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 3 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF JEFFERSON COUNTY NEAR CLAY AND TRUSSVILLE
WHERE RADAR ESTIMATES AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
BIRMINGHAM…FAIRFIELD…FULTONDALE…GARDENDALE…IRONDALE…
MOODY…SPRINGVILLE…TRUSSVILLE…ALTON…ARGO…B.J.C.C….
BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT…BIRMINGHAM FAIRGOUNDS…BIRMINGHAM SOUTHERN
COLLEGE…BROOKSIDE…CARDIFF…CENTER POINT…CHALKVILLE…CLAY…
ENSLEY…FORESTDALE…KETONA LAKES…KINGSTON…LEGION FIELD…
LIPSCOMB…MARGARET…MIDFIELD…PINSON…REGIONS FIELD AND
RICKWOOD FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

Late this morning showers and thunderstorms began to develop across the state. Over the last few hours, these storms have expanded in coverage. None of these storms are currently severe in the state, there are several severe thunderstorms over northern and eastern Mississippi that we are keeping a close eye on as they head our way.

Storms in Alabama are producing small hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and very intense rain. Flooding looks to be a developing issue in some areas. Strong storms are impacting the Birmingham Metro currently and it is a rough commute along Interstates 65, 59, and 20. This activity should continue for the next several hours and don’t be surprised to see some severe weather warnings through out the afternoon.

Over the last few hours, showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop and train over potions of Blount County. These storms have been dropping tremendous amounts of rain and flash flooding conditions are expected over portions of the county. Oneonta and highways 75 and 79 will be impacted.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
EASTERN BLOUNT COUNTY IN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 104 PM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
RADAR HAS ESTIMATED AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO IN CENTRAL BLOUNT COUNTY…ESPECIALLY NEAR ONEONTA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
ONEONTA…ALLGOOD AND ROSA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS WILL BE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN
AROUND… DONT DROWN.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT WED JUN 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…ERN AR…NRN-CNTRL MS…NRN.-CNTRL AL

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 051653Z – 051830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN AR…NRN-CNTRL MS AND NRN-CNTRL AL. WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION…SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD WARM SECTOR LOCATED FROM THE
ARKLATEX EXTENDING EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S F AND MLCAPE VALUES ARE LIKELY IN THE 1500 TO
2500 J/KG RANGE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NRN MS WHERE CELLS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE.
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING EWD ACROSS AR AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT NEARS THE MS
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE MID
TO UPPER 80S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA…LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN CREATING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING OUTFLOW
GUSTS. IN ADDITION…AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON…HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/05/2013

Scattered showers and storms are developing across the Alabama landscape today. Several mesoscale boundaries, daytime heating, a moist boundary layer, and some upper-level features are providing all the needed ingredients for these showers and storms to develop. Currently, some of the more intense activity is across Etowah and St. Clair Counties, and it appears they are trying to back build into Jefferson County. Also watching convection develop over West Alabama in Lamar and Fayette Counties as well as showers down around Lake Martin along the highway 280 corridor. Showers and storms could develop anywhere across Alabama as a warm stable air mass in in place across the state. Storms that develop could produce small hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and torrential rains. We could see some flash flood warnings today. There are more storms developing across northern Mississippi as well and should continue to propagate east today and could be impacting Alabama later.

The SPC maintains a slight risk for severe weather over extreme Northwest Alabama. Still watching a MCS moving across Arkansas and expecting additional thunderstorm development with it that could produce large hail and damaging winds. Storms ongoing across the Tennessee Valley have produced some severe weather warnings earlier, but those warnings have since expired. Flash flood warnings are in effect for Colbert and Lauderdale Counties in Northwest Alabama as these storms have produce torrential rainfall across the area.

In the latest day one convective outlook issued by the SPC, that have extended a slight risk for severe weather into portions of extreme Northwest Alabama. As of now, this risk is just for the counties that make up the western boarder of the state. It includes portions of Pickens, Lamar, Marion, Franklin, Colbert and Lauderdale Counties.

This morning there are ongoing thunderstorms in the area, currently none of these storms are severe. They are strong and could be producing hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Flash flooding could develop in these areas too. The main concern for severe weather today is expected later today as a MCS moving from the southern Plains is expected to cross the Mississippi Valley. Daytime heating is expected to destabilize the atmosphere more today and re-intensification of these storms is expected. They could produce large hail and damaging winds.

We will also be watching for a flash flood threat across the rest of the state for the next couple of days as an area of low pressure in the Gulf will slowly be working north. It caused some flash flooding overnight along the Interstate 85 corridor in Macon, Bullock, and Russell Counties. Several roads were reported to be impassible due to high water.

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: At daybreak showers are on radar over Chilton and surrounding counties; these showers are near a warm front moving northward through Central Alabama. Moisture levels will rise over the northern half of the state today, and we will bring back the chance of scattered showers and storms. The day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with a high in the mid to upper 80s.

TOMORROW/FRIDAY: Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected on these two days with a deep moisture axis over Alabama… the sky will be generally cloudy with a high in the low to mid 80s. Rain amounts of at least one inch are likely; some places could get more.

GULF SYSTEM: We continue to notice a low level swirl in the Gulf of Mexico, with showers and storms east of the center. This feature still has some chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 36 hours, but one way or another the impact will be the same… mostly lots of rain for the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle and the peninsula. Most models bring the low level center up toward Apalachicola tomorrow night, with the heaviest rain east of a line from Dothan to Apalachicola. Places like Tampa, Orlando, Daytona, and Jacksonville should get a good soaking between now and Friday morning.

Some heavy rain could impact the southeast corner of Alabama around Dothan, but a decent chance the heaviest rain will be a little east of there.

BEACH TRIP? Occasional showers and storms are likely today and tomorrow from Destin over to Panama City, but showers will be fewer in number around Gulf Shores and Pensacola. Showers thin out along the entire Gulf Coast region Friday, and then for the weekend about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine both Saturday and Sunday with the usual risk of widely scattered showers and storms. Highs will remain in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.

OUR WEEKEND: Drier air moves back into Alabama over the weekend; we expect a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with little if any chance of a shower. The high Saturday will be in the mid 80s, with upper 80s Sunday.

HERE COMES THE HEAT: As an upper high builds across the southern U.S… we expect the hottest weather so far this year next week, with low 90s Monday, and possibly mid 90s Tuesday. The 00Z GFS is printing a high of 96 degrees on Tuesday… not sure it will be that hot, but no doubt it will sure feel like summer. The first half of the week looks mostly dry with the warmer air aloft, but a few showers could show up by Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

Facebook
Twitter
Google Plus
Instagram

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon…. enjoy the day…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
WEST CENTRAL RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 600 AM CDT

* AT 309 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THREE
TO FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN INDICATED BY RADAR ACROSS THE AREA
AND ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
HURTSBORO…UNION SPRINGS AND GUERRYTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS MAY BE INUNDATED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 530 AM CDT

* AT 244 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA.
RADAR INDICATES THAT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN WITH LOCALLY
GREATER AMOUNTS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
FRANKLIN FIELD AND SHOPTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT RAINBANDS
WILL PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG STREETS. MANY
ROADS MAY BE INUNDATED DUE TO HIGH WATER AND DRIVING IS NOT
RECOMMENDED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
WESTERN MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 430 AM CDT

* AT 127 AM CDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES THAT 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
MILSTEAD…FRANKLIN…HARDAWAY…LIBERTY CITY…LIVERPOOL…
SHORTER…TYSONVILLE AND VICTORYLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS…COUNTRY ROADS…AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

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THIS AFTERNOON: A quiet weather day for the northern half of Alabama… the only issue is the “mystery echo” on the Hytop radar over Huntsville near Redstone Arsenal…

The sky over Huntsville is mostly clear, and there are no controlled burns, and the radar echo doesn’t look like chaff deployed from military aircraft. We will keep working it, but for now it remains a mystery.

Down south, we have seen a few scattered storms over the southern half of the state, but they are widely spaced.

IN THE GULF: A surface low is over the southern Gulf, drifting north. Most of the convection is well to the east of the low, and the hurricane hunter flight into the system for this afternoon was cancelled. Still, this has the potential to become a tropical depression over the next 36 hours. Depression or open wave, the impact will be the same… heavy rain over parts of Florida, and then up through Georgia and the Carolinas later in the week.

Most models want to bring the surface low up toward Panama City or Apalachicola Thursday night; the heaviest rain will come from about Panama City east… to include much of the Florida Peninsula (Orlando, Tampa, Daytona, Fort Myers, Miami, etc).

GULF COAST FORECAST: So… if you are beach bound…. look for rain at Panama City, and possibly Destin and Fort Walton Beach Thursday. And, rough surf is likely all along the Gulf Coast through Thursday night. Otherwise, about 5 to 7 hours of sunshine for Pensacola and Gulf Shores tomorrow and Thursday with scattered showers and storms. Storms will be fewer in number Friday and over the weekend with 7 to 9 hours of sun each day. Highs will be in the 80s, water temperatures are near 80.

UP THIS WAY: We are still forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms Thursday and Friday… we still believe the heaviest rain with the tropical low will pass east of the state, but we note the 18Z NAM just in shows some heavy rain over the eastern third of Alabama Friday.

One way or another the weekend should feature drier air with only a slight risk of a shower Saturday. Then, mostly rain-free Sunday and Monday. The GFS is now advertising an upper high that might bring the hottest weather so far this year to the state early next week with low to mid 90s. Welcome to summer.

See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

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Info from NWS, Norman, OK on the EF-5 rating assigned today to the El Reno tornado…

FACTS
• El Reno Tornado
• May 31, 2013
• Time: 6:03 PM – 6:43 PM CDT • Path Length: 16.2 miles
• Maximum Width: 2.6 miles
• Maximum EF-Scale: EF5

MAXIMUM WIDTH
• The tornado was at least 2.6 miles wide.This is likely conservative.

• Damage indicators were sparse, so it was difficult to estimate the maximum width of the tornado based on the ground survey.

• However, we were able to use mobile Doppler radar velocity data to estimate the path width.

• We used a Doppler radar radial velocity of 65 mph – corresponding to the threshold of EF0 tornadic winds – to help estimate the tornado width.

MAXIMUM INTENSITY
• The tornado struck mostly rural areas of Canadian County, leading to difficulty establishing maximum intensity.

• Initial estimate of EF3 was based on damage to several structures, but the inferred tornado intensity was an underestimate of tornado strength because of the scarcity of damage indicators and very small regions of extreme winds.

• However, two high-resolution mobile radars acquired high detail datasets of the tornado.

• The University of Oklahoma’s RaXPol, a rapid-scan, polarimetric, mobile Doppler radar, measured winds greater than 295 mph at several times and locations within 500 feet of the ground along the south side of subvortices on the south side of the tornado.

• These extreme velocities occurred several times in the RaXPol data.

• Extreme winds associated with small, rapidly-translating subvortices within the larger tornadic
circulation.

• These intense subvortices remained over open fields and did not directly affect structures.

• The two most intense subvortices with the highest velocities occurred north and east of the intersection of 10th and Radio Road approximately 3 miles SSE of El Reno.

• The observation of winds well above the EF4/EF5 boundary from two independent rapid-scan mobile radars lends confidence to the observed winds.

• Known damage indicators were compared to RaXPol velocity measurements; good agreement was found between EF-scale rating and velocities above.

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PLEASANT MORNING: Just a touch of fall in the air this morning… Russellville has dropped to 55 degrees at daybreak… Cullman is reporting 56. We won’t see too many mornings in the 50s over the next three months. The sky is clear, and the air is pretty dry.

Today will remain dry across the northern half of Alabama with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the upper 80s. Any showers will be confined to South Alabama, and even there they should be widely spaced.

REST OF THE WEEK: Moisture comes back tomorrow, and we will bring back the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”… the high should be in the 86-89 degree range.

A fairly deep moisture axis will cover our state Thursday and Friday, and we project scattered to numerous showers and storms both days. Expect more clouds than sun, with highs in the mid 80s. The rain won’t be continuous, and the sun should peek out at times. The best chance of showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, but we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower.

GULF OF MEXICO MISCHIEF: A disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico has some chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next 48 hours; a hurricane hunter is scheduled to investigate later today. Most models bring the center up toward the Apalachicola/Cedar Key region late Thursday night; we note the NAM is an outlier to the west and shows the center crossing the coast near Pensacola.

One way or another, the main issue with this will be heavy rain over the Florida Peninsula… places like Tampa, Orlando, Daytona, Jacksonville, Fort Myers, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami should get a good soaking in coming days. Some flooding is not out of the question.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Drier air moves into the state just in time for the weekend. Any showers on Saturday should be very hard to find, and most of Alabama looks rain-free Sunday. Highs will remain mostly in the mid to upper 80s.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Needless to say, the weather on the coast will be determined by the movement of the tropical disturbance. Panama City has the greatest chance of getting some rain directly from the tropical low Thursday, but we still believe the most widespread and heavies rain will be east of there.

Generally speaking, from Panama City west to Gulf Shores we expect about 4 to 6 hours of sunshine each day through Friday with scattered showers and storms on a daily basis; the storms should be most numerous tomorrow and Thursday. The weekend should feature 6 to 8 hours of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with widely scattered showers or storms.

Highs on the coast will hold in the 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning is 82 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the two hour special we recorded last night on the Oklahoma City tornado situation this past Friday night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day…

WeatherBrains Episode 384 is now online (June 3, 2013). If you are crazy about weather, this is THE netcast audio program for you!

This week we have a candid discussion of the May 31 Oklahoma City tornado; the death of three veteran storm chasers, and how the warning process worked along with the communication progress. Thanks to…

Dr. Marshall Shepherd, American Meteorological Society President
Rick Smith, Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM), NWS in Norman, OK
Jeff Piotrowski, Storm chaser
John Brown, Storm chaser
Dan McCarthy, NWS Indianapolis, IN (former WCM of the Storm Prediction Center)
Matt Mahler, KWTV Meteorologist (Oklahoma City)

Listener Surveys: Okay, we continue to drive this topic into the ground, but we really do like to hear from you. Many thanks to everyone who has taken the time to fill out the Listener Survey. The survey takes just a minute or two to complete and provides us with an opportunity to learn where you are and hear your thoughts and comments on the show. Click here to take the survey.

We will be back next week with “WeatherBrains 101″, “Fog Bank”, “Picks Of The Week”, and the “EMail Inbox”… we wanted to devote two hours to this urgent topic tonight.