ABC 33/40 Weather Blog

Syndicate content
The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 19 min 46 sec ago

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for St. Clair County

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 16:26

4:25 p.m. Sunday

The strong thunderstorm that moved through the Birmingham Metro area now has the potential to produce damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters.

It is moving towards Pell City.

Trees were reported down in Mountain Brook as this storm moved through.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 425 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BARBER
MOTORSPORTS PARK…OR OVER LEEDS…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
PELL CITY…LEEDS…MOODY…RIVERSIDE…BALD ROCK…LOGAN MARTIN
LAKE…BRANCHVILLE…CHULA VISTA…CAMP WINNATASKA…CROPWELL AND
ST. CLAIR COUNTY AIRPORT.

 

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms Moving Through B’ham Metro

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 15:45

A cluster of strong storms is moving through the Birmingham Metro right now, but they are not severe. Areas from Bessemer to Hoover and Lake Purdy and north are

They have heavy rain, gusty winds and lots and lots of lightning. Expect one half inch of rain as they pass.

Storms are intensifying a bit over Northwest Alabama, over parts of Winston, Lawrence, Cullman and Morgan Counties. They are not severe at this time.

This second round of storms is being produced by an upper level disturbance in an active El Nino southern branch of the jet stream.

Another round of storms will impact Alabama late tonight. Storms are expected to develop shortly Texas, Arkansas and Louisiana. These storms will move into Alabama later tonight. A severe thunderstorm watch is already in effect for the aforementioned areas.

Categories: Weather

Dancing With the Stats

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 14:45

The much advertised heavy rainfall amounts have actually lived up to their billing this week across Central Alabama, although it hasn’t seemed like it. Areas within about 50 miles either side of the I-20 corridor have received two to three inches of rainfall in the past seven days with some four to six inch amounts across Lamar and Fayette Counties.

The Birmingham Airport picked up 3.42 inches through yesterday, with another 0.95 inches after midnight this morning, putting the total at 4.37 inches, with a little more rain to go later today and tonight.

Over the past 365 days, BHM has picked up 51.1 inches through yesterday, which is two inches below normal, so the one inch today has brought us to within an inch of normal over the past year. It looks like another two to three inches of rain will fall through next weekend if the GFS is right. Thanks El Nino!

DROUGHT DENTER: The biggest winners in the rainfall derby this week were the parched areas of South and Southeast Alabama where widespread three to six inch amounts were observed over the past seven days from southern Monroe and Conecuh Counties over to Barbour and Henry Counties. More heavy rains this morning of three to five inches of rain fell across Coffee, Dale and Henry Counties, some of the hardest hit by the current drought in that area.

Categories: Weather

Storms Firing Over Northwest Alabama

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 13:50

Showers continue to grow across northwestern Alabama and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon ahead of an upper level disturbance.

A strong storm is over northern Pickens and southeastern Lamar Counties moving into Fayette and northwestern Tuscaloosa Counties. It already has lots of lightning and heavy rain.

Other incipient storms are over southern Marion County and over western Jefferson County.

This activity will become strong through the afternoon hours. Severe is possible, but will not be widespread.

Categories: Weather

Round Two Underway

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 13:22

We are now in the beginning of the second round of a triple header of weather action that is underway across Central Alabama on this mid-April Sunday. The first round brought wind damage to Cherokee County and a possible tornado to East Central Alabama’s Russell County. Five cars of a freight train were brown over on a siding near Abbeville. The second round could bring severe weather this afternoon and the final round will affect the area overnight with damaging winds, hail and even isolated tornadoes.

Let’s set the stage:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION: A second upper level disturbance was crossing the Mississippi River south of Memphis early this afternoon. Showers and storms were increasing across northern Mississippi and northwestern Alabama ahead of the disturbance. The airmass over Alabama was still slightly unstable and with temperatures expected to warm into the middle to upper 70s with clearing moving in from the west, instabilities will exceed 2,000 j/kg soon , which is moderately unstable.

Here are current instability values, running 1,000-1,5000 j/kg over West Alabama.

Dewpoints are in the middle and upper 60s giving the air a humid feel. There is 40-45 knots of bulk shear in areas generally south of US-78 and US-280.

Fortunately, surface winds are out of the south southwest, limiting the low level helicity, which tornadoes need to spin up.

And mid level lapse rates are poor thanks to sinking air behind our first disturbance, which should help keep the storms in check.

ROUND TWO: Round two of our severe weather event is commencing with those developing showers over Northwest Alabama. Showers will continue to grow in intensity through the afternoon as they feed on the increasing instability from the surface heating and between low level temperature profiles. The storms should be discrete and separated.

The bulk shear will allow them to organize and with drier air aloft that has moved in after this morning’s disturbance, damaging winds and large hail should be the primary threat with the strongest storms. These storms should be out of East Alabama by 8-9 p.m. The SPC has just checked in that the chance of a weather watch this afternoon is small at this time.

ROUND THREE: The final round of our event will come courtesy of a strong disturbance rotating around the base of the powerful upper level trough over Oklahoma this afternoon. It will trigger showers and storms to our west by late this afternoon that will cross Mississippi tonight and enter West Alabama just before midnight. The activity should be weakening as we lose the heating of the day but there are indications that instability levels will remain high enough to allow the storms to hold together into the I-65 Corridor. If they do, we could see more severe weather, including damaging winds, hail and even isolated tornadoes.

We will be closely monitoring weather conditions across Alabama this afternoon and tonight. Stay tuned here at AlabamaWX for the latest and most complete severe weather coverage for Central Alabama.

Categories: Weather

More Storms Ahead

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 12:52

Here is a projection of what the radar will look like over the next 15 hours, via the high resolution HRRR model…

As Bill notes in the post below, we have two additional windows for severe storms in our state… one from about 1:00 until 7:00 p.m…. and another one from around 12:00 midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow.

New showers are forming now over West Alabama…

These will grow stronger in coming hours as they move east… some storms this afternoon could produce hail and strong, gusty winds, but the tornado threat looks very low (although not zero).

The line of storms arriving ahead of a cold front after midnight tonight will also be capable of producing hail and gusty straight line winds. And once again, the overall tornado threat late tonight is low.

One thing to remember, with the ground saturated, some trees will come down, even with gusts under 50 mph.

NWS survey teams will look at damage in Russell County (around Fort Mitchell) this afternoon; they will review the damage in Cherokee and Calhoun Counties tomorrow (this was damage at Leesburg and Pleasant Valley).

Stay tuned for updates…

Categories: Weather

Round 1 Ending For Central Alabama. Two Rounds to Go.

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 10:14

Active weather continues across Southeast Alabama this morning as severe thunderstorms associated with an upper level disturbance move into Georgia. A strong upper level jet helped to intensify the storms and low level spin in the atmosphere allowed possible tornadoes to spin up.

Wind damage was reported in Leesburg, especially along AL-68 and Keener Driver, with numerous trees down, including one on a house. Injuries were reported. There are a few tweets that it was a tornado, which is possible, but the radar signatures looked more like straight line winds. Doesn’t rule out that it was a tornado, but the damage from strong straight line winds can be as bad as those of a tornado. NWS survey teams will investigate.

Here is an example of the damage at Leesburg:

Further south, there were strong radar indications of a tornado moving across Russell County earlier. There was actually a tornadic debris signature on Doppler Radar for a time. Structural damage was reported just southeast of Fort Mitchell in Russell County.

That storm is in Georgia near Fort Benning now and is again producing a debris signature. The NWS Atlanta notes the debris is as high as 7,000 feet, indicating a significant tornado.

A tornado watch continues for for much of Georgia, Northwest Florida and East/Southeast Alabama, but the threat is over for areas behind the line of storms.

ROUND TWO

The system responsible for our severe weather is a weakening upper level low over the Central Plains. The low is opening up into a strong trough over Kansas and northern Oklahoma this morning. Disturbance one, which caused the morning round of rain/storms is lifting into eastern Tennessee. The next upstream disturbance is crossing the Mississippi River. It will affect Alabama this afternoon. Will the atmosphere be able to recover from the morning rain and storms?

Skies have cleared over Mississippi with drier air moving in behind the first disturbance. This clearing is moving into western Alabama as well. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to near 80F this afternoon. This will allow instabilities to increase to over 2,000 j/kg by early afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop in areas mainly along and south of I-59 by 2-3 p.m. or so. Bulk shear will still be running 30-50 knots along and south of I-59, so storms will be able to organize. There will still be over 100 m2/s2 of low level helicity at that time, so we will be watching for the threat of tornadoes as well.

So, severe weather will probably not be widespread with the afternoon round, but there could be a handful of discrete storms that could produce damaging winds, hail and even a couple of tornadoes, mainly along and south of I-59. But everyone needs to remain weather aware through the afternoon.

ROUND THREE

Another event will come into the state overnight as the main axis of the upper level trough affects Alabama. Storms will fire over Arkansas and northern Louisiana by late afternoon and move across Mississippi during the evening. These storms will be crossing into Alabama before midnight. Now the good news is that they should be weakening. But there should be enough instability ahead of the storms to produce additional severe weather during the late night hours. Decent bulk shear means the storms will be organized and hence strong. Strong low level helicities of 125-200 m2/s2 means that a couple of isolated tornadoes are possible as well.

NEW WORK WEEK
Weather should rapidly improve on Monday as a cold front sweeps through the area. Winds will be brisk, out of the west and northwest tomorrow, and dewpoints will be crashing, making it feel chillier despite increasing sunshine from clearing skies. Highs on Monday afternoon will be in the lower and middle 70s. Monday night lows will be in the 40s and lower 50s. Tuesday and most of Wednesday look to be dry before a passing disturbance brings showers back into the forecast as early as late Wednesday, more likely on Thursday.

WEEKEND SNEAK PEEK
Next weekend looks like it will be wet, with heavy rain returning as early as Friday night. Saturday looks very wet.

Categories: Weather

More Counties Cleared from Watch

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 10:14

The tornado watch in Alabama has been cancelled for Bullock, Clay, Elmore, Macon, Montgomery, Pike and Tallapoosa Counties.

The tornado watch continues for Barbour, Chambers, Lee, Randolph and Russell Counties til 2:00 PM CDT.

Here is the projected radar for 4 p.m. this afternoon when more severe weather is possible:

Categories: Weather

Counties Cleared from Watch, More Severe Weather Later

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 09:56

As round onw winds down, two more rounds of severe weather are possible across ALabama today and tonight. Look for a detailed update on the upcoming threat in just a few minutes here on the AlabamaWX blog. We will be monitoring the weather all day and through the night to keep you informed.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 78 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS CANCELS 7 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

ELMORE MONTGOMERY

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

CLAY MACON TALLAPOOSA

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BULLOCK PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDER CITY…ASHLAND…
LINEVILLE…MILLBROOK…MONTGOMERY…TROY…TUSKEGEE…
UNION SPRINGS AND WETUMPKA.

TORNADO WATCH 78 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

CHAMBERS LEE RANDOLPH
RUSSELL

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BARBOUR

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…AUBURN…EUFAULA…LANETT…
OPELIKA…PHENIX CITY…ROANOKE AND VALLEY.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Cherokee/Cleburne

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 09:20

The NWS in Birmingham has issued a new severe thunderstorm warning for Cherokee and Cleburne Counties till 9:45 AM CDT.

This is for the line of thunderstorms that produced wind damage earlier in Cherokee and Calhoun Counties.

Numerous trees were reported down in Leesburg.

The NWS in Atlanta has issued a severe thunderstorm warning in their state downstream of this line as well.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 914 AM CDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF SUMMERVILLE TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MARS HILLS TO NEAR DELTA…MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
HEFLIN…CEDAR BLUFF…FORNEY…FRUITHURST…EDWARDSVILLE…
GAYLESVILLE…MARS HILLS…CORNWALL FURNACE PARK…MUSCADINE…
PLEASANT GAP…ABERNATHY…EASTERN WEISS LAKE…SWEETWATER LAKE…
HOWELLS CROSSROADS…OAK LEVEL…I 20 WELCOME CENTER…COLEMAN LAKE
AND CAMPGROUND…LAKE CLEBURNE…BORDEN SPRINGS AND FULLERTON.

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Calhoun, Cleburne, Cherokee

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 08:53

Getting reports of trees down now in Cherokee and Calhoun County

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 852 AM CDT…SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF IDER TO NEAR ANNISTON REGIONAL
AIRPORT…MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ANNISTON…OXFORD…JACKSONVILLE…PIEDMONT…CENTRE…HEFLIN…
CEDAR BLUFF…COBB TOWN…FORNEY…LITTLE RIVER CANYON NATIONAL
PRESERVE…SAKS…FORT MCCLELLAN…WEST END-COBB TOWN…CENTRE
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT…WEAVER…LEESBURG…HOBSON CITY…RANBURNE…
FRUITHURST AND EDWARDSVILLE.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning – Russell County

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 08:45

Strong radar indications of a developing tornado in Russell County in East Central Alabama approaching Pittsview.

This possible tornado will move to near Fort Benning passing south of Seale.

A possible tornadic debris signature is pasing over US-431 now between Glenville and Pittsview.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 945 AM CDT

* AT 844 AM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF HAWKINSVILLE…OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HURTSBORO…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD…TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS…
FORT MITCHELL…FORT MITCHELL ACTIVITY CENTER AND UCHEE CREEK.

Categories: Weather

Tornado Warning – Bullock and Macon Counties

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 07:16

Radar indicated tornado just east of Union Springs is moving northeast at 20 mph.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN BULLOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA…
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 714 AM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UNION SPRINGS…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HAZARD…POSSIBLE TORNADO.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. TREE DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR…
GUERRYTON AROUND 745 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
SEDGEFIELD…WARRIORSTAND AND THREE NOTCH.

Categories: Weather

Stormy Sunday into Monday

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 07:00

To make the blog more user friendly for those using phones and tablets, we are now embedding the Weather Xtreme video at the top of individual posts. You can also subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

***Note: while in production of the morning video a tornado watch was issued for Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. ***

A large cluster of storms was moving across Central Alabama early this morning. This cluster is adding additional complexity to the forecast today as it helps to stabilize the atmosphere across the state. Stronger storms were noted across extreme South Alabama. Once these storms move east, we should have a lull in the action until the upper level storm system to our northwest brings a final round of potentially severe storms to the area.

Lots of questions this morning on exactly how both the storms along the Gulf Coast as well as the large rain cluster moving through Central Alabama will affect the weather later today. SPC still has an enhanced area outlooked just to our west and all of Alabama remained in a standard slight risk area. It’s worth noting that the GFS MOS numbers for probability are also down for the day and only peak around 40 percent for early Monday morning. In other words, the models are struggling, too.

Since the early morning convection will be gone by mid to late morning, I expect the atmosphere will have enough time to recover as the GFS paints a broad area of CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg for the afternoon hours. Plus we have the mesoscale convective system that should be moving through the area. While the tornado threat is not zero, the helicity and bulk shear numbers don’t seem to be that impressive. The final round of severe potential will come as the cold front approaches late tonight and into early Monday morning, but by then the atmosphere will be worked over a good deal and with the best dynamics lifting well to our north, the storms will probably be weakening though still the potential for damaging wind and some large hail.

The upper air pattern evolves into a broad trough over the eastern half of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure settles into the region and provides a couple of very nice Spring days. But the good weather does not last long as another front approaches on Thursday and an upper level trough heads our way Friday and Saturday keeping the weather unsettled for Alabama and the Southeast US.

Wet this morning at the beach, but beach goers should see a lull for the late morning and early afternoon before additional storms occur. Highs will be in the upper 70s. Looks like some nice beach weather for midweek.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Stay tuned to the Blog for later updates as the current weather situation unfolds. Be safe and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Tornado Watch – Southeast Alabama

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 06:58

Scroll down to the next post for details…

WWUS64 KBMX 191157
WCNBMX

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 78
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
657 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

ALC005-011-017-027-051-081-087-101-109-111-113-123-191900-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.A.0078.150419T1157Z-150419T1900Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 78 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ALABAMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 12 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL ALABAMA

ELMORE MONTGOMERY

IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA

CHAMBERS CLAY LEE
MACON RANDOLPH RUSSELL
TALLAPOOSA

IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA

BARBOUR BULLOCK PIKE

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALEXANDER CITY…ASHLAND…AUBURN…
EUFAULA…LANETT…LINEVILLE…MILLBROOK…MONTGOMERY…OPELIKA…
PHENIX CITY…ROANOKE…TROY…TUSKEGEE…UNION SPRINGS…
VALLEY AND WETUMPKA.

$$WWWW

Categories: Weather

Severe Storms Possible Later Tonight/Tonight

Sun, 04/19/2015 - 06:19

Brian will be along shortly with a new Weather Xtreme video… this is a look at what to expect over the next 24 hours.

RIGHT NOW: Rain and storms continue over much of North/Central Alabama this morning with heavy rain in spots. Organized severe weather is not expected over the northern half of the state, and this activity will slowly diminish later this morning. We should note severe storms are possible over South Alabama this morning; in fact SPC has issued a tornado watch much of Southeast Alabama until 3:00 this afternoon.

LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT: SPC has all of Alabama in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather…

Seems like we have two potential windows for severe storms.

One will come this afternoon when a disturbance (MCV) approaches from the west, and instability reaches a peak (ML CAPE values over 1,500 j/kg). Bulk shear values are not too impressive, and the tornado threat seems low. But, stronger storms during the afternoon could produce hail, and strong straight line winds where bowing segments develop.

Then, late tonight, more storms are likely ahead of the surface cold front. Most of this will come from about midnight tonight through 6:00 a.m. tomorrow. While there will be an increase in the low level jet (winds about 5,000 feet off the ground), the air will be pretty worked over across Alabama from previous storms, and the core dynamic support will lift northeast, away from us. A good chance the storms will weaken as they move through, but there still is some risk of a few storms with hail and gusty winds. The tornado threat late tonight is not zero, but very low.

And, don’t forget… when it comes to thunderstorms, expect the unexpected, so we will keep a very close eye on thunderstorm/radar trends today and tonight. Stay tuned for updates.

Categories: Weather

Wet/Stormy Late Tonight

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 20:20

Rain continues to increase over West and Southwest Alabama tonight… this big rain mass is moving northeast.

Animation of the high resolution HRRR model shows a very wet overnight period for our state…

The main threat overnight will be heavy rain and localized flooding issues… just a marginal severe weather threat. A few storms could produce small hail and gusty winds.

We will have a break in the rain from mid-morning tomorrow through the evening hours, but another band of showers and storms will move in tomorrow night and early Monday, and those could be strong to severe. More later… stay tuned…

Categories: Weather

Lull Today, Active Sunday

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 13:20

Though it remains cloudy, gray, and cool today, we are not seeing much in the way of rain across the state this afternoon, but of course that will be changing as rain and storms will return to the state as early as this evening. Temperatures this afternoon are in the upper 60s and lower 70s for most of Central Alabama. The SPC does have much of the southern two-thirds of the state outlined in a “marginal” risk for severe weather today, notice the blue line in the map below. Areas along and south of a line from Fayette to Birmingham to Talladega are included in this risk and this will be for storms that arrive late tonight into the pre-dawn hours.

I want to say first off that there is a lot of uncertainty with both rounds of potential storms we could see. The first round will come overnight tonight. Model data suggests showers and storms will begin developing across Mississippi and Alabama this afternoon and this activity will be heading towards Central Alabama during the overnight hours, with the main time frame being from around 12 a.m. until 8 a.m. tomorrow. We will see more of a heavy rain event with limited instability, but there will be still be the threat of storms that will bring with them the threat of hail and strong gusty winds, and while the tornado threat is very low, it is not zero.

However, we do note there is a large expanse of showers and storms across the Northern Gulf of Mexico and these could possibly be impeding our threat of strong storms during the overnight period as the flow from the Gulf of Mexico is blocked. Of course we are watching everything closely, but this ongoing activity could very much benefit us in Central Alabama. We are still going to forecast rain and storms this evening and overnight. What activity we see develop should be pushing out of the area during the late morning hours tomorrow and we should see a break in the action for most of Sunday afternoon and into the evening hours.

As we look at the latest day 2 convective outlook just issued from the SPC, it shows the entire state of Alabama is included in the “slight” risk for severe weather on Sunday. This is for what could potentially develop late Sunday and lasting into the pre-dawn hours Monday. This second round will be the one that we will have to watch very carefully as this is when the best dynamics will be approaching the area with the upper trough over the southern Plains. While it will be slowly weakening, the air will be more unstable, shear values and lapse rates suggest that some of the storms could produce damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.

We are continuing to monitor the situation carefully, and we are going to urge everyone to stay weather aware the next 48 hours, especially since the main threat for storms appears to be during the overnight hours; make sure you have ways to get and receive warnings. Always prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and expect surprises when it comes to thunderstorms in Alabama.

Categories: Weather

Weekend Weather Update

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 08:20

This is a busy weekend for many with spring sports in full swing, and the two “A-Day” football games ahead at Tuscaloosa and Auburn.

The good news is that there is no rain on radar as of 8:00 this morning, and most of the morning should be rain-free. No doubt a few showers will begin to form this afternoon, but the good news is that it looks like the most widespread rain will hold off until tonight. This is model output from the high resolution HRRR model, valid at 3pm today…

So yes, take the rain gear to Bryant-Denny Stadium and Jordan-Hare Stadium, but there is a real chance both games will be played with few showers. Temperatures will be in the 70s this afternoon.

TOMORROW: Much of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather tomorrow…

There will be two main windows for strong storms… the first window will come from around 2 a.m. until 8 a.m. tomorrow; this will be more of a heavy rain event with limited instability, but a storm with hail and strong gusty winds can’t be ruled out. And, while the tornado threat is low, it is not zero.

There should be a lull in the action Sunday afternoon… then the second chance comes tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Monday… from about 10:00 p.m. tomorrow until 4:00 a.m. Monday. This is when the core dynamic support from the ejecting upper trough comes into play. While it will be slowly weakening, the air will be more unstable, and projected shear profiles and lapse rates hint that some of the storms could produce strong, perhaps damaging winds, and an isolated tornado will be possible.

Stay tuned to the blog for updates…

Categories: Weather

More Storms Later Today and Sunday

Sat, 04/18/2015 - 07:35

To make the blog more user friendly for those using phones and tablets, we are now embedding the Weather Xtreme video at the top of individual posts. You can also subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Looking for a brief break in the rain and storms for the morning and early afternoon before another round of rain and storms comes our way this afternoon and tonight. Clouds will keep temperatures from changing much but we should see highs push into the lower 70s. Severe weather is expected ahead of the closed low primarily from Texas to Nebraska later today.

The closed low over Colorado will open up and move eastward on Sunday bringing more storms. The overall pattern is conducive to a severe weather threat for Sunday with the greatest risk just to the west of Alabama, but all of Alabama is in the standard slight risk for severe storms with isolated tornadoes possible. The overall situation is somewhat messy with a highly saturated environment and the ongoing precipitation which could disrupt the overall severe weather potential for Central Alabama. Best CAPE values will be to our west and these values diminish into Sunday evening. However, better to err on the side of caution and be prepared for possible severe storms.

The severe weather risk slides east on Monday as we finally dry out with the carving out of a trough over the eastern half of the country. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and very nice but chances for showers reenter the picture on Thursday as another cold front moves by.

Ridging aloft should bring a dry Friday to Central Alabama, but the pattern remains active with another trough coming out of the Rockies on Saturday that promises the potential for more rain and storms Saturday and possibly into Sunday.

At the beach, look for wet weather. A flash flood watch is in effect until Sunday for a large portion of the Gulf Coast from Pensacola westward to Galveston, TX. Not much sun for beach goers with rain likely through the weekend. Highs will be in the upper 70s today and Sunday. The weather at the beach should dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The weather pattern remains active out into week 2 or voodoo country. The GFS is painting a large ridge which promises some much warmer weather for the start to May.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here on Sunday morning. Stay up with the Blog for the latest weather information on Central Alabama weather. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather