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The latest information on Alabama weather, tornadoes, hurricanes, winter storms, national weather headlines and the science of meteorology in general.
Updated: 11 min 40 sec ago

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 17:54

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WUUS54 KBMX 302251
SVRBMX
ALC051-081-087-123-302345-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0100.140630T2251Z-140630T2345Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
551 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
EASTERN ELMORE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
WESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
MACON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA…
SOUTHERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 547 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WIND CREEK STATE PARK TO 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF STILL WATERS RESORT
TO AUBURN UNIVERSITY…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
AUBURN…NOTASULGA…TUSKEGEE…TALLASSEE…MILSTEAD…STILL WATERS
RESORT…MARTIN LAKE AT KOWALIGA AND LIBERTY CITY.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 22 THROUGH 60…

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF BRINGING DOWN TREES ACROSS RANDOLPH
AND CHAMBERS COUNTIES. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS…AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3241 8539 3241 8544 3224 8543 3223 8586
3230 8588 3228 8591 3234 8599 3242 8603
3241 8605 3242 8611 3278 8600 3275 8559
3273 8559 3273 8543 3275 8543 3273 8540
3273 8535
TIME…MOT…LOC 2250Z 017DEG 27KT 3282 8589 3268 8572
3260 8550

$$

56

WWWW

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 17:17

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WUUS54 KBMX 302216
SVRBMX
ALC027-123-302315-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0099.140630T2216Z-140630T2315Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
516 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 511 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
MALONE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ASHLAND TO ASHLAND…AND MOVING
SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ALEXANDER CITY…DADEVILLE…CAMP HILL…GOLDVILLE…NEW SITE…
HILLABEE CREEK…JACKSONS’ GAP AND JACKSONS GAP.

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS…AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3275 8588 3276 8589 3276 8595 3277 8596
3275 8601 3330 8601 3330 8598 3334 8598
3333 8564 3311 8565 3311 8560 3308 8559
3273 8559
TIME…MOT…LOC 2216Z 003DEG 32KT 3317 8566 3316 8579
3320 8591

$$

56/GDG

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 16:58

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WUUS54 KBMX 302158
SVRBMX
ALC017-123-302245-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0098.140630T2158Z-140630T2245Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
458 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
CHAMBERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…
EASTERN TALLAPOOSA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 453 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ROANOKE TO CORINTH TO 6 MILES WEST OF
MALONE…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
STROUD…LAFAYETTE…LANETT…CAMP HILL…VALLEY…WELCH…STANDING
ROCK AND PENTON.

THIS INCLUDES…
INTERSTATE 85 EXIT NUMBERS 77 THROUGH 79…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3275 8515 3275 8528 3273 8529 3273 8540
3275 8542 3273 8543 3274 8557 3271 8562
3271 8568 3269 8571 3310 8573 3311 8523
3286 8518 3285 8515 3281 8516 3277 8511
TIME…MOT…LOC 2158Z 353DEG 41KT 3312 8536 3309 8551
3311 8567

$$

56

Categories: Weather

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 16:46

This is the text of a severe warning from the National Weather Service for part of the AlabamaWX.com coverage area. Standby for more details to be added to this post by our meteorologists.

WUUS54 KBMX 302145
SVRBMX
ALC111-302230-
/O.NEW.KBMX.SV.W.0097.140630T2145Z-140630T2230Z/

BULLETIN – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
445 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 443 PM CDT…THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A LINE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
WOODLAND TO WEDOWEE TO LINEVILLE…AND MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
ROANOKE…MALONE…CORINTH…CRYSTAL LAKE…WADLEY…BIG SPRINGS…
TENNANT AND R.L. HARRIS DAM.

WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BREAK LARGE TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE SOME
DAMAGE…ESPECIALLY TO SMALLER STRUCTURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

FOR YOUR PROTECTION…MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.

&&

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER…
CALL 1-800-856-0758 OR TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG ALWX

LAT…LON 3311 8523 3311 8547 3311 8548 3311 8560
3311 8565 3338 8565 3337 8555 3343 8529
TIME…MOT…LOC 2145Z 357DEG 19KT 3331 8539 3328 8554
3330 8570

$$

56

Categories: Weather

Disturbance Triggering Storms over Northeast Alabama

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 13:39

Another disturbance was triggering showers and thunderstorms over Northeast Alabama this afternoon.

Some of these storms will be heavy with lots of lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds.

There could be an isolated instance of severe weather but it will not be widespread.

These showers and storms will thin this evening and maybe we can get to the advertised flat ridge of high pressure that is supposed to bring us drier conditions.

ARTHUR?
Our low pressure system east of the Florida East Coast continues to get better organized. The Hurricane Hunters are checking it out now and we will see if a tropical depression has already formed. The NHC has upgraded the 48 hour probability of that happening to 80%. The system will move to near the coast before turning north and northeast. It could affect the Carolinas on the third and Fourth.

Categories: Weather

Showers Down – Heat Up

Mon, 06/30/2014 - 07:02

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Summer weather patterns are not usually this troublesome for forecasting with daily shower chances, but we have a somewhat challenging forecast with a front approaching from the northwest which could mean some drier air for us while we watch a slowly changing area of disturbed weather off the Southeast US coast which could complicate the overall picture.

For today, the weak short wave that brought a fairly nice round of showers and thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley area yesterday is still helping to produce a few showers over Northeast Alabama. With a slight drop in precipitable water and the slow movement of that short wave away from us, most showers that occur today are likely to be east and north of Birmingham with West Central Alabama dry. With the building of the ridge aloft, temperatures should climb into the lower 90s.

Because of the building ridge, it looks like Tuesday will be an essentially dry day even though an isolated shower driven by afternoon heating can’t be completely ruled out. The pattern becomes somewhat muddied on Wednesday and Thursday with the approach of a weak frontal boundary from the northwest. Fronts do reach our area this time of year, but they are fairly rare. While no major air mass change is expected, the frontal boundary could bring air that is much drier into the northern half of Alabama with dew points dropping from the lower 70s into the lower 60s. Adding to the complication is the tropical weather disturbance off the eastern coast of Florida. It meanders there for several days slowly gaining some strength. This complicates our picture because the front should provide additional lift to improve shower chances but the sinking motion around the tropical system could significantly reduce our rain chances. Definitely a stay tuned situation!

This is likely to mean just the potential of isolated showers by July 4th. As we get into the weekend, the tropical disturbance is likely to moved along the Carolina coast and finally northeast into the Atlantic. This suggests the return of daily showers as we watch the approach of another fairly strong short wave coming across the North Central US that could bring an uptick to showers for the Southeast US.

TROPICS: Eyes are on the area of disturbed weather off the east coast of Florida. Conditions remain favorable for gradual intensification of this area which could become a depression in the next 36 hours. Computer guidance suggests movement along but just offshore from the Southeast US coast before it moves out into the Atlantic by next weekend.

AT THE BEACH: It will be warm on the beaches. Afternoon highs are likely in the lower 90s for part of this week. It should remain dry, with only an isolated shower of storm each day. There will certainly be more sun than clouds and UV indexes are categorized as Extreme. You can expect the water temps to be in the middle 80s.

The GFS shows a strong ridge over the eastern two-thirds of the US as we get out into Week 2 and voodoo country.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Thanks for staying tuned to the Blog. I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted on Tuesday morning. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Sunday Weather Notebook

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 15:48

It is a smorgasbord of weather on this last Sunday and June. We have a lot to talk about, so let’s get to it.

There was major flooding this morning across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi. 7.28 inches of rain fell at Wheatley in St. Francis County, Arkansas. 5.87 inches of rain has fallen at Memphis so far today, which makes it at least the 6th wettest day in their history.


We continue to see signs that the low pressure system off the coat of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia will become a tropical depression over the next 48 hours. The system will turn back to the northeast ahead of an approaching trough by midweek. The trough will not only turn the system, it will also allow it to intensify. The GFS now picks up on the system, and the European continue to indicate that the system could become a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane as it tracks northeastward off the South Carolina coast Thursday and Friday before making landfall in eastern North Carolina.

It would then track northeast off the coast as it heads out to see, with no other U.S. landfalls anticipated.

Closer to home, outflow boundaries from last night’s storms triggered storms over East Alabama this afternoon. Those are mainly in Georgia now. Our Tennessee disturbance was triggering a lie of heavy storms from eastern Madison County down into Morgan County. Those storms were approaching 50,000 feet tall!

Other storms were scattered from Cullman county down into southern Fayette and northern Tuscaloosa Counties.

The heavier storms will produce very heavy rain, strong gusty winds and intense lightning.

Categories: Weather

Storms Starting to Form over Alabama, More to the Northwest

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 12:51

The upper level disturbance that was the trigger behind the tremendous flooding rains in eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northern Mississippi is tracking up I-40 between Memphis and Nashville early this afternoon. The precipitation has diminished, because the low level jet that was pouring high moisture content air into a boundary the disturbance had created has weakened.

But that disturbance is still there and it is producing showers and storms on its southeastern and southern flank. Those showers and storms are lined up from Corinth to New Albany to Batesville and Clarksdale across northern Mississippi.

Across North Central Alabama, an unstable air mass is awaiting the wave of forcing along the front edge of the disturbance’s flank. Instability values are running 2,500-3,500 joules/kg, which is high of course. There is little convective inhibition, so showers and storms are bound to form. The convective temperature on the 12z sounding from BMX was 84F, and with temperatures above that all across the area now, showers are forming.

There is a very healthy cumulus field in place across the area as well, as look to the sky indication of the unstable nature of the airmass. Take a gander at this visible satellite/radar depiction with surface temperatures.

You can see the swirl of the disturbance northeast of Memphis.

You can see fairly numerous showers starting to form over the northern two thirds of Alabama.

Showers will grown into storms across Alabama this afternoon. Rain chances look to be higher than we thought earlier. Storms over northern Mississippi should start to intensify as they push into the more unstable air across Alabama. They will mainly stay near and north of US-278 from Hamilton to Cullman to Gasden, but areas from Fayette to Birmingham to Anniston may get brushed by these storms.

Elsewhere, scattered storms will continue to develop through the afternoon. All of the storms will produce very heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Can’t rule out a few severe thunderstorms, with some damaging winds being the threat. We will be watching.

Categories: Weather

Life Threatening Situation W Tenn, E Ark, N Miss

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 08:11

Scroll down for Brian’s usual excellent morning weather discussion, but there is serious flooding ongoing to our northwest this morning.

From the NWS Memphis: “This is turning into a life threatening situation. We went with emergency wording on the last FFW”

…FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY…DESOTO AND TUNICA COUNTIES…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI…
NORTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI…
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE…

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR SHELBY…DESOTO AND TUNICA
COUNTIES.

* AT 709 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BARTLETT…
GERMANTOWN…MILLINGTON…HERNANDO…HORN LAKE…OLIVE BRANCH…
SOUTHAVEN…CORDOVA…MEEMAN SHELBY FOREST STATE PARK AND T O
FULLER STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR CORONEE LAKE…HORN LAKE…
HORSESHOE LAKE…LAKE MCKELLAR AND ROBCO LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

.FLOOD WATERS ARE MOVING DOWN THE NONCONNAH CREEK AND THE WOLF
RIVER. THE FLOOD CREST IS EXPECTED TO REACH 32.0 FEET BY 9 AM ON THE
NONCONNAH…AND 21.5 FEET ON THE WOLF RIVER BY NOON.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE…TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN.

.DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

The above graphic shows the radar estimated rainfall amounts overnight and early this morning.

THE SITUATION
They are referring to heavy rain and flash flooding event that is ongoing this morning in eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee.

The image is on Winchester in Germantown.

Heavy rain began during the early morning hours in this area as a moist flow (2.1 inch precipitable water values) across an old stalled outflow boundary and an upper level disturbance has led to prodigious rainfall amounts from showers and storms that have been lined up like trains along a track and moving over the same areas for hours.

3-6 inches of rain has fallen across eastern Arkansas from Newport to Des Arc and Clarendon, with a band of 3-5 inches rains extending through the Memphis area.

And more heavy rain is pointed at the Memphis area.

The first warnings came just before 4 a.m. and now flash flood warnings cover an unbroken area from near Batesville AR to Holly Springs MS.

REPORTS
4:55…Quince and White Station area of East Memphis: “prob 4 to 6 inches of water covering the whole street. Flowing very rapidly. Never seen like this here” – A stalled car was reported with the river trapped in that area.

6:00…”Park and Ridgeway, Poplar eastbound before Kirby and Macon at Houston Levee at the Kroger entrance flooded. Multiple cars stranded in high water”

7:24…Here’s info from a tweet by the Memphis FD: ” Winchester/Tchulahoma. Multiple vehicles submerged in water w parties trapped”

7:42…4.02″ in 24 hours in CoCoRaHS gauge at 7:35am 3 miles N of Bartlett TN.

So needless to say, travel in parts of eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee is a problem this morning.

FOR US IN ALABAMA
This activity will spread eastward into Northwest Alabama later this morning as the upper level disturbance lifts northeastward. The heavy rains will continue and flooding will be possible across the rest of northern Mississippi into Northwest Alabama as the moist flow continue and the storms propagate southeastward.

So expect another round of rain and storms later today across North and Northeast Alabama for areas mainly along and north of US-278. Rain chances are high in places like Florence, Huntsville, Arab and Fort Payne.

South of there, showers and storms will be fewer in number.

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN TODAY IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
Explosive thunderstorms this afternoon are expected to bring very large hail to the northern Plains again. A moderate risk has been posted for parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Iowa. Places like Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Ames and Iowa City are under the gun for very large hail and the threat of a few tornadoes.

Categories: Weather

Warm with Scattered Showers

Sun, 06/29/2014 - 06:58

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Our weather pattern has been somewhat muddled for the last several days thanks to an area of slightly lowered pressure in the upper air pattern over the Lower Mississippi River Valley. That weakness is gradually filling as the trough to our northwest moves across the Great Lakes area. This will allow for the upper ridge to build stronger over the Southeast US for the first of the upcoming week.

In the meantime, a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Mid-South area centered on about Memphis will be laying down boundaries that could become the focus for additional storms later today and tonight. Shower chances will be higher to the north of Birmingham while I only expect to see isolated storms across much of Central Alabama this afternoon. It will be important to watch the future motion of that large thunderstorm cluster in the vicinity of Memphis responsible for numerous flash flood warnings with rainfall amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches.

With the ridge building for us, isolated storms remain a possibility as temperatures climb into the lower and middle 90s by mid-week but Tuesday could be completely dry. The GFS still promises the approach of a frontal system Thursday and Friday as does the European. This could signal an uptick in shower chances as we head to the Fourth of July. But late June/early July fronts usually wash out without a good air mass change, so the frontal boundary will have the main impact of increasing shower chances and perhaps dropping temperatures a little due to increased clouds.

TROPICAL MISCHIEF: A broad area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina continued to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for development of this system while it drifts southward offshore of Georgia and northeastern Florida during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. The GFS remains somewhat flat on much development to this system while the European is a little more bullish on strengthening it.

BEACH GOERS: Fairly typical summertime weather along the beautiful white sandy beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. More sun than clouds and only slight chances for those afternoon showers and storms that are likely to develop along the sea breeze front. Temperatures along the immediate coast line will be in the upper 80s and flirting with 90 degrees. For sun bathers, you can expect 7-9 hours of sun each day. At last check, the water temperature at Dauphin Island was 84 degrees.

Looking into voodoo country, the GFS showed a general troughiness over the eastern portion of the US to about July 11th. After that the trend was to build an elongated east to west ridge across the southern and central sections of the country with the westerlies pushed well into Canada. This would spell some pretty good heat for a large part of the US.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I’ll be filling in for Meaghan Thomas tonight on ABC 3340 as she fills in for the vacationing James Spann. The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted first thing on Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Strong Storms Move North and Northeast

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 19:39

The line of storms over Central Alabama continues pushing north and northeast tonight. This graphic shows the expected progress of the line over the next 90 minutes.

Click image to enlarge

None of them are severe at this time, but they do contain huge amounts of deadly lightning, torrential rains and strong, gusty winds.

Winds gusted to 50 mph at our Tuscaloosa Skycam.

A 36 mph wind gust was recorded at the Tuscaloosa Airport:

KTCL 290031Z 19014G25KT 3/4SM VCTS +RA BR BKN027 OVC035 23/22 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 18031/0005 LTG DSNT W AND NW TSB2359RAB01 P0071

The airmass is slowly stabilizing, but there is still 1500-2000 joules of CAPE ahead of the storms, so this may allow them to reach Birmingham by 930, and southwestern sections around Bessemer by 845.

Categories: Weather

West Alabama Storms Packing a Punch

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 18:26

Thunderstorms over West Alabama are packing quite a punch from Pickens through much of Greene, Hale, southwestern Perry, western Dallas and northern Marengo Counties.

Click image to enlarge.

Places like Carrollton, Eutaw, Grensboro and Marion are under the gun or about to me.

The storms will reach Tuscaloosa within the next 45 minutes, with thunder of course being heard about 15 minutes ahead of that. Centreville as well. If the storms hold together they will affect southwestern and southern parts of the Birmingham Metro in less than 2 hours (about 815-830).

No warnings in Alabama right now, but just across the border, there are severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of Noxubee, Kemper and Clay Counties.

Wouldn’t be surprised to see a warning for the Perry County storm.

Lots of lightning and gusty winds. There could be some hail, especially in the storm approaching Marion, but no reports so far.

Everything is moving north or northeast at 20-25 mph.

Categories: Weather

Watching Storms to the Southwest

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 17:05

Central Alabama saw round one of the rain earlier today. This evening, we are watching for the chance of round two. A cluster of showers and storms is lifting north across Mississippi and West Alabama. At this time, they are affecting portions of Greene, Sumter, Marengo, and Wilcox counties.

None of these storms are severe currently, but they could certainly pack a punch. They are producing gusty winds, very heavy rainfall, lots of lightning, and some small hail will be possible. These storms will continue to track towards the north over the next few hours, and could certainly impact Tuscaloosa, and perhaps Birmingham later this evening. These storms, once the sun sets, should begin to slowly wind down.

Click image to enlarge.

Categories: Weather

A Mixed Bag of Weather

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 13:27

Depending where you are in the state, determines the type of weather you are experiencing. We continue to see a few isolated showers on the radar this afternoon and many of us are see more clouds than sun. There are showers impacting Central Alabama this afternoon, but most of the heavier activity is affecting northeastern portions of the state. Today’s activity is moving from southwest to northeast. Where the showers and extra clouds are, we are seeing cooler temps and many locations are hanging in the lower 80s today. Not to bad for the last weekend of June.

Categories: Weather

Arthur in the Days Ahead?

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 08:33

We have been keeping our eye on low pressure that had been forecast to develop off the South Carolina coast over the past couple of days. That did happen and the system is sitting over very warm Gulf Stream waters with temperatures conducive to tropical development. Significant thunderstorm development has occurred this morning with the system and it does appear there is some chance for tropical development as the system moves south over the next couple of days.

The NHC has upgraded the probability of development over the short term (48 hours) and the medium term 96 hours) to 30% and 50% respectively.

It is now called Invest 91L, the cryptic way that the NHC uses to identify tropical disturbances of interest.

So we could see a tropical depression form sometime today or tomorrow from this system. There is some chance that it could become a tropical storm, especially if it turns back to the northeast and tracks over that same Gulf Stream to the Outer Banks. It it does, it would be Arthur.

The Canadian model carries it slowly southwestward before turning it easterly. This idea is discounted for now.

The European carries it to a point east of Melbourne on the East Coast of Florida by early Monday, and sits it there through midweek before moving it back to the northeast to near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Friday night and off to the northeast after that. It develops it into a pretty decent tropical storm or hurricane, but doesn’t affect any of the rest of the U.S. coastline. This is a viable idea.

The GFS carries it down to east of the Florida Peninsula but weakens it there and never really develops it coming back to the northeast like the European. This solution would bring heavy rains to places like Daytona Beach and Orlando. The GFS hints that the weakened system and its moisture could hang around the Florida Big Bend area, perhaps enhancing rain around Panama City. Otherwise the system should have no impact on Alabama’s weather, or the weather along the Gulf Coast.

Categories: Weather

Showers Trending Downward

Sat, 06/28/2014 - 06:54

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

The weakness in the upper air pattern that has been helping to enhance rain chances for the Southeast US for the last several days continued to bring more showers than usual to much of Alabama yesterday and last night. The effects of this weakness can still be seen on radar this morning with some weak showers in East Central Mississippi. But the models continue to promote the dissipation of this weakness with the building of the upper ridge over the weekend and into next week.

Without an airmass change, we simply cannot rule out the development of an afternoon shower or two, but as the upper ridge builds stronger we will see a reduction to the number and coverage of showers. Temperatures will also be on the increase with highs working upwards into the lower and middle 90s for the middle of next week.

A strong short wave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday promises to bring a weak frontal boundary into the Tennessee River Valley which could spark an increase to showers especially north of Central Alabama. However, the upper trough passes well north of here so I expect to see the front wash out as the strong westerlies remain along the US-Canadian border.

BEACH WEATHER: Pretty great weather along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida for the weekend and the week ahead. Rain chances will remain fairly small. Highs will be in the upper 80s to near 90F. Lows will be in the lower 70s. Water temperatures are in the lower and middle 80s.

TROPICS: Are still quiet with some cloudiness along the Southeast US coast. While some development of this area is possible, chances for a tropical storm remain low.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Looking forward to getting some locally grown fresh vegetables at Helena’s Market Day today in Buck Creek Park. Be sure to stop by the event from 8 am to noon and it continues through July and August. The next Weather Xtreme Video will be posted by 8 am or so on Sunday. Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Updated Radar Report

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 20:35

Storms are moving into southwestern Chilton and southern Bibb COunty heading toward Shelby County.

The storms are weakening, but they still have lots of lightning, heavy rain and gusty winds.

To the northeast, one storm maxed out as it passed over Columbiana, fueled by an outflow boundary. That storm is passing between Childersburg and Sylacauga.

Heavy storms are moving toward Montgomery. They extend from Camden to west of Greenville and Georgiana. These storms are heavy but not severe.

In Northwest Alabama, storms are over Marion and Winston County as well. They are not especially strong, but have plenty of lightning and heavy rain and gusty winds.

Categories: Weather

Watching Storms Tonight

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 18:40

Taking a Friday evening look at the Alabama Weather Situation.

We are tracking a couple of systems on regional radars tonight that have impact and potential impact on the state overnight.

An upper level disturbance near Columbus MS has a pronounced spin on it, and it is triggering an area of showers and storms over eastern Mississippi into western Alabama. The activity extends down into southwestern Alabama and trails back into southeastern Mississippi, where the storms are intense. There is a severe thunderstorm warning for parts of a couple of counties in southern Mississippi.

This disturbance will continue moving northeast. It remains to be seen whether the storms will hold together or not. One of our mesoscale models moves them up into Central Alabama before weakening them around midnight. Another is picking up on the newer development and carrying showers and storms up into the Birmingham area just after midnight before having them dissipate over Northeast Alabama during the pre-dawn hours. Another model doesn’t have a good handle on the system at all.

Right now, the heaviest storms in West Central Alabama are over southern Lamar County near Vernon and over northern Hale County near Moundville. The Hale County storm will be approaching Brent in Bibb County before 7:30 and the Lamar County storm will make it to near Winfield by that same time as they move east northeast and northeast respectively.

Further south, strong storms over southern Marengo and Choctaw Counties are moving more northerly, toward Linden and Thomaston, but it will take them a couple of hours to get to Demopolis.

Further back to the southwest, another disturbance extends from Alexandria LA to Baton Rouge and New Orleans. This system should weaken as it moves into Mississippi overnight.

More showers and storms will likely develop tomorrow over Alabama with the trough remaining just to our west. This despite a ridge trying to build over the northern Gulf Coast into Alabama. The ridge will really start to win the battle by Sunday, leading to drier and hotter conditions.

Categories: Weather

Showers Likely Once Again

Fri, 06/27/2014 - 06:50

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

A weakness in the upper air pattern continued to influence our weather today. Showers were widespread and numerous on Thursday as one disturbance moved northeastward out of this weakness. Showers are not as prevalent this morning as that area of lowered pressure aloft becomes weaker and is finally showing signs of moving out as the upper ridge grows stronger. Look for highs in the middle 80s today due to the presence of showers and clouds, relatively cool values for our highs considering that the 30-year average highs should be around 90. The high yesterday in Birmingham as a very unseasonable 81 degrees. While there is not expected to be any organized severe weather, the weakness aloft and afternoon heating could combine to produce some isolated severe thunderstorms with damaging wind expected to be the greatest threat.

The weakness aloft migrates northeastward over the weekend and becomes less of a factor in our weather, so we see a return to more routine summer weather for the weekend with partly sunny days along with the risk of a scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Afternoon highs will be in the range of 87 to 91 – pretty typical for the end of June.

Models are showing a strengthening of the high pressure ridge aloft across the Deep South, for much of the week ahead and this should mean fewer showers and thunderstorms as well as hotter afternoons. Afternoon highs should rise into the low 90 and some spots could see highs in the mid 90s in a few spots. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop should be widely spaced due to the warm air aloft and the sinking motion associated with the ridge aloft. Interesting to note the potential for a somewhat rare cold front to approach the area around the 2nd and 3rd of July. Always somewhat skeptical about fronts in the summer making it into the Southeast US, but it is possible. The approach of any front could raise the risk of unsettled weather for the Fourth of July.

ON THE GULF BEACHES: About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine each day from Panama City to Gulf Shores through the weekend with a passing storm from time to time. Highs along the immediate coast will remain in the upper 80s. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab was 84 degrees.

TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend. Some tropical development possible in the eastern Pacific.

Voodoo country has an interesting surprise in the form of a deep trough along the eastern US, but then the upper ridge grows very strong into the middle of July. This strong ridge could spell some significant heat for the eastern US.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Charles Daniel Bill Murray Brian Peters E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted between 7 and 8 am on Saturday. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

Categories: Weather

Flash Flood Warning Northern Cullman County until 3 PM

Thu, 06/26/2014 - 12:02

UPDATE: As of 1:35 PM, the flash flood warning was cancelled.

Steady and heavy rain continues to fall across northern portions of Cullman County. This warning does include the city of Cullman, as well as Vinemont, Holly Pond, West Point, and Jones Chapel. Travel could be impacted along Interstate 65, and U.S. Highways 31 and 278. Remember, if you encounter flooded roadways, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN CULLMAN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA…

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 1155 AM CDT…THE PUBLIC REPORTED SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER
COVERING ROADS IN SOME LOCATIONS. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT
TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE LAST THREE
HOURS AND ANOTHER HALF TO LOCALLY ONE INCH IS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE…
CULLMAN…GOOD HOPE…HOLLY POND…SARDIS…BALDWIN…VINEMONT…
BAILEYTON…WEST POINT…FAIRVIEW AND JONES CHAPEL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TURN AROUND…DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

Categories: Weather