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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Big Cool Down This Weekend

| 6:32 am October 1, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM DAY AS OCTOBER BEGINS: We project a high in the upper 80s today, well above our average high of 80 for the first of October (based on data for Birmingham). The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, and there is no significant chance of rain. Tomorrow will be just a warm, with a high between 87 and 90 degrees. The day tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and with low level moisture levels rising, an afternoon shower or storm is possible, especially over Northwest Alabama.

TO THE WEST: There is a large “slight risk” of severe weather from the Texas Hill Country to near Chicago tomorrow ahead of a deep upper trough and cold front…

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FRIDAY FRONT: An organized band of showers and storms will move into Alabama after midnight tomorrow night ahead of the cold front, but the good news is that organized severe weather is not expected in our state Friday, and SPC does not have any risk for us in their “day three” convective outlook.

The main window for showers and storms will come from roughly 3:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Friday. Surface based CAPE values (instability) will rise to well over 1,000 j/kg, so a few strong storms are certainly possible, and rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4″ can be expected. A few spots could see totals over one inch where heavier storms form.

A CHILL IN THE AIR THIS WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season blows into Alabama Saturday with a brisk north wind. Guidance continues to come in cooler; we won’t get past the mid 60s Saturday afternoon with a north wind of 10-20 mph, and Sunday morning we are now projecting lows in the 39-44 degree range for most of North/Central Alabama. You will need to dig out those jackets for the first time in a while. The air will be very dry, and the sky will be cobalt blue Saturday and Sunday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Scattered showers are possible for high school football games across North/Central Alabama tomorrow evening with temperatures in the 70s; highest risk of a shower will be over the northwest part of the state. Showers and storms Friday should end by kickoff time Friday evening for most stadiums across North and Central Alabama; temperatures will fall into the 60s during the games Friday night… maybe even 50s by the second half. Some will need a jacket.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Ole Miss for a game that kicks off at 2:30 in Oxford. The weather could not be better. Total sunshine, about 70 degrees at kickoff with low humidity and a pleasant north breeze. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 60s by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts LSU Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Again, a perfect night for football. A clear sky; 60 degrees at kickoff, with 50s by the second half. Zero chance of rain.

UAB plays at Western Kentucky Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff)… it will be a clear, cool night in Bowling Green with 56 degrees at kickoff, then about 48 degrees by the fourth quarter. You will need a jacket.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny and warm tomorrow from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with highs in the 80s. An afternoon shower is possible tomorrow, followed by a better coverage of showers and storms Friday. The weekend will be beautiful with sunshine in full supply and a high in the 70s.

NEXT WEEK: Alabama’s weather looks dry and pleasant for much of the week; see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: All is quiet across the Atlantic basin and tropical storm formation is not expected this week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I will be speaking this morning at the University of Montevallo; look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Big Cool-Down This Weekend

| 3:46 pm September 30, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM THROUGH MID-WEEK: It is a mostly sunny and warm afternoon across the great state of Alabama, with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s. Tomorrow will be dry and even warmer, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the upper 80s, well above the average high of 80 for October 1 (in Birmingham).

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Thursday will be another very warm day with upper 80s along with a mix of sun and clouds, but moisture levels will rise, and a few scattered showers or storms could break out during the afternoon and evening hours. Then, late Thursday night into the daytime hours Friday, a band of organized showers and storms will roll through Alabama ahead of a sharp cold front.

Looks like the main window for showers and storms ahead of the front will come from about 3:00 a.m. until 3:00 p.m. Friday. There will be sufficient instability (over 1,000 j/kg CAPE) for a few strong storms, but organized severe weather is not likely with the surface low and main upper support well to the north. Rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch are likely over the northern half of the state, with isolated totals over one inch.

COOL WEEKEND: The 12Z model runs have come in cooler for the weekend. Saturday will feature a cobalt blue sky and maximum sunshine along with a stiff north breeze; many communities from Birmingham north won’t make it out of the 60s. Sunday will be another bright sunny day with a high in the 70s. Many North/Central Alabama communities will visit the 40s early Saturday and Sunday morning for the first time this season.

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A secondary cold front moves through Monday, and I guess we might consider a small risk of a shower with that feature, but the air will be very dry, and signifiant rain doesn’t look likely. Then, pleasant really fall weather is the story Tuesday through Thursday with only a slow warming trend. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Showers are possible for high school football games across North/Central Alabama Thursday evening with temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms Friday should end by kickoff time Friday evening for most stadiums across North and Central Alabama; temperatures will fall into the 60s during the games Friday night.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Ole Miss for a game that kicks off at 2:30 in Oxford. The weather could not be better. Total sunshine, about 72 degrees at kickoff with low humidity and a pleasant north breeze. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts LSU Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Again, a perfect night for football. A clear sky; 63 degrees at kickoff, with 50s by the fourth quarter. Zero chance of rain.

UAB plays at Western Kentucky Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff)… it will be a clear, cool night in Bowling Green with 58 degrees at kickoff, then about 50 degrees by the fourth quarter. You will need a light jacket.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny and warm tomorrow from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with highs in the 80s. An afternoon shower is possible Thursday, followed by a better coverage of showers and storms Friday. The weekend will be beautiful with sunshine in full supply and a high around 80 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.

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I had a wonderful time today visiting with the students at University Place Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Warm Through Mid-Week

| 6:36 am September 30, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

WARM AFTERNOONS: Alabama’s weather will be warm and dry through tomorrow with mostly sunny warm afternoons; we expect a high in the mid 80s, and some spots will see upper 80s tomorrow, well above our average high of 80 degrees (Birmingham data) for October 1.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Moisture levels begin to rise on Thursday. The weather stays very warm, with a high in the mid to upper 80s, and we will introduce the risk of scattered showers by Thursday afternoon. But, the better chance of showers and storms will come Friday as a cold front moves into our state. We project rain amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 inch for most communities, and we can’t rule out a strong storm or two.

West of Alabama, SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” of severe weather for much of Arkansas and Missouri, ahead of the front, for Thursday, but there is no formal severe weather risk Friday. The primary dynamic support will be north of our state, which should prevent organized severe weather from being an issue, but there is clearly the chance of strong storms with surface based CAPE values expected exceed 1,000 j/kg.

There is a decent chance the rain will end by the time high school football games begin Friday night, especially from Birmingham north and west.

COOL WEEKEND: The coolest air so far this season will blow into Alabama Friday night. The weekend will feature a brilliantly sunny sky Saturday and Sunday; highs in the 70s, and morning lows between 45 and 52 degrees. You might even need a light jacket if you will be out early in the day. Picture perfect fall weather.

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The dry weather continues into early next week with just a slow warming trend. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Showers are possible for high school football games across North/Central Alabama Thursday evening with temperatures in the 70s. Showers and storms Friday should end by kickoff time Friday evening from Birmingham north and west, but some rain could linger east and south of Birmingham for the first half of some of the games. Temperatures Friday evening will fall into the 60s with a fresh north breeze developing.

Saturday, Alabama travels to Ole Miss for a game that kicks off at 2:30 in Oxford. The weather could not be better. Total sunshine, about 74 degrees at kickoff with low humidity and a pleasant north breeze. Temperatures will fall into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

Auburn hosts LSU Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff) at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Again, a perfect night for football. A clear sky; 68 degrees at kickoff, with potential for upper 50s by the fourth quarter. Zero chance of rain.

UAB plays at Western Kentucky Saturday evening (6:00p kickoff)… it will be a clear, cool night in Bowling Green with 62 degrees at kickoff, and low 50s by the fourth quarter. You will need a light jacket.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Mostly sunny and warm today and tomorrow from Panama City over to Gulf Shores with highs in the 80s. An afternoon shower is possible Thursday, followed by a better coverage of showers and storms Friday. The weekend will be beautiful with sunshine in full supply and a high around 80 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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I will be doing a weather program this morning at University Place Elementary School in Tuscaloosa… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Cold Front Arrives Friday

| 3:31 pm September 29, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

RADAR CHECK: A few showers are over Central Alabama this afternoon… from near Thomaston to Orrville to Billingsley to Alexander City… they are moving southeast…

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There is a wide spread of temperatures, with 80s over West Alabama, and mostly 70s east of I-65.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Alabama’s weather will be warm and dry on these two days; with a good supply of sunshine we project highs in the mid 80s. Some West Alabama communities will see upper 80s on Wednesday, the first day of October, when the average high is 80 degrees (in Birmingham).

COLD FRONT LATE THIS WEEK: Low level moisture begins to return Thursday, and a few scattered afternoon showers are possible… but showers and storms are more likely late Thursday night and during the day Friday ahead of a well defined cold front. Seems like this has potential to bring much of the state around 1/2 inch of rain, with a few isolated amounts over one inch.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday ahead of the front, but parameters don’t seem to favor any signifiant severe weather risk across the Deep South. A decent chance the rain ends by the time high school football games begin Friday night.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Could not be any better. A cool, dry airmass rolls into the state, and both days will feature sunshine in full supply with highs in the 70s, and lows well down in the 50s. Many communities across North/Central Alabama could very well see upper 40s at daybreak Sunday.

Dry weather continues into early next week with just a slow day to day warming trend. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: A low pressure center is near Bermuda, in the Atlantic, and is moving northeast. Development is not expected there, and the rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.

AT THE BEACH: Mostly sunny and warm weather is likely tomorrow and Wednesday from Panama City west to Gulf Shores with highs in the 80s. A few scattered showers and storms are possible Thursday, with showers and storms becoming more numerous Friday. Then, a picture perfect weekend is ahead on the coast with sunny days, fair nights, and highs around 80 degrees.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

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I enjoyed seeing the 6th graders today at Clanton Middle School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Cold Front Due In Here Late This Week

| 6:21 am September 29, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

SUNDAY RAIN WAS A NO SHOW: On my last forecast shift Friday, it looked like a decent part of Alabama, especially south and east of Birmingham, would have a beneficial rain event yesterday and last night. Needless to say, it never happened. The high precipitable water values advertised by models never arrived, and dynamic support was weak and disorganized.

We will still mention the risk of a few showers today; we have light rain falling this morning in scattered pockets across the state. Some of the heaviest rain at daybreak was just north of Montgomery. The sun should break out later today, and the high will be close to 80 degrees.

TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: These two days will be warm and dry with a good supply of sunshine. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 80s; some West Alabama communities might even see upper 80s Wednesday… it won’t feel like the first day of October.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A well defined cold front with good upper support will swing through the state at the end of the week. A few showers could break out Thursday afternoon or Thursday night, but it looks like the rain chance of showers and storms will come during the day Friday. There will be a limited degree of instability, so some thunder is possible, but for now severe weather does not look likely. Rain amounts of around 1/2 inch can be expected, with totals up to one inch possible where heavier storms develop along the front. Based on global model output, there is a decent chance most of the rain will end by the time high school football games begin Friday night, but no guarantee.

REFRESHING WEEKEND: A nice cool, dry airmass will roll into Alabama following the front Friday night, and will set the stage for a very nice weekend. Sunny days, fair nights… highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s. Some of the cooler spots could visit the 40s early Sunday morning across North/Central Alabama.

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Dry weather continues into early next week with a slow warming trend. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.

TROPICS: A weak disturbance is well east of the U.S. in the Atlantic, and conditions do not favor development. Bottom line is that tropical storm formation is not expected this week in the Atlantic basin.

GULF COAST WEATHER: A few showers and storms today on the coast from Panama City over to Gulf Shores, but tomorrow and Wednesday should feature a good supply of sunshine with highs in the 80s. Showers and storms return late in the week Thursday night and Friday, but the weekend ahead looks delightful with ample sunshine both days and a high around 80 degrees with low humidity.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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I have a weather program this morning at Clanton Middle School in Chilton County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Gulf of Mexico: Friend or Foe for Rain Fans

| 6:04 pm September 28, 2014

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The Gulf of Mexico can be the friend as well as the enemy of wet weather systems for Central Alabama, and so far it has been the enemy of this one. I know, I know. You wet weather fans have heard it before. The Gulf of Mexico moisture was cut off by convection along the coast. But this time it is more a factor of waiting on the front to move north as the upper trough over the western Gulf of Mexico moves only grudgingly to the east and we wait on a surface low to form to our south.

NEVER FEAR: Rain is on the way, but amounts will be on the lighter side it appears. That’s not good news, since we continue to be dry across Central Alabama. Much of the area has received less than 75% of its average rainfall over the past 60 days. And now drought conditions have crept into a large part of the area as well, especially from Jefferson and Shelby Counties back to Bibb County then eastward to Chambers County.

A CHECK OF RADARS LATE THIS AFTERNOON: Shows that showers were trying to organize along the I-85 corridor in East Central Alabama. Others formed at peak heating from Bibb down through Marion Counties, but those have since mostly fallen apart. It now appears that there will be chances of scattered mainly light showers from the band near I-85 through the evening hours with a better area of rain developing over South Central Alabama after midnight and pushing into Georgia as a surface low forms over the northeastern Gulf.

This means the heaviest rainfall will be over South Central and Southeast Alabama and into southern Georgia.

Overnight lows tonight will be in the 60s with highs tomorrow probably limited to the 70s with a considerable clouds and a few leftover showers.

Mostly Cloudy with Rain Tonight

| 6:59 am September 28, 2014

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Moisture increased overnight across Central Alabama as seen by mostly cloudy skies this morning, however, the rain has been much slower to develop and move into our area. It looks like we’ll stay mostly cloudy for much of the day with rain becoming likely tonight and the first part of Monday. Heaviest rains are likely to stay south of the Clanton area mainly along and south of the I-85 corridor. Due to the clouds afternoon high temperatures will only reach the upper 70s. A few spots could edge to near 82 if you experience a break in the cloud cover.

Rain should spread into the area late today and into early Monday as the upper short wave trough moves slowly by and moisture values go up with good southerly surface flow. Precipitable water values top out tonight and early Monday near 2 inches from the Birmingham area southward. The short wave trough moves east of us on Monday afternoon so I expect to see slow clearing from the west during the afternoon. With the trough along the East Coast, we come under a weak ridge for the middle of the week with dry weather and afternoon temperatures climbing back into the mid 80s.

Late Thursday a strong trough is forecast to dig into the Central Plains with a surface low developing in Kansas and moving northeastward into the Great Lakes on Friday. This will bring another round of wet weather to Central Alabama with a cold front traversing our area on Friday. The latest model guidance suggests that the rain will be ending by afternoon, so high school football games Friday night may be dry. This far out we’ll have to watch the timing of this system and adjust the forecast as needed. The deep trough should usher some much cooler air into the Southeast US with lows over the weekend in the 50s and highs only in the 70s. Some spots may well see lows dipping into the 40s.

Beach goers will see wet weather today and Monday but the weather should improve for the middle of the week until Friday. A flash flood watch is in effect through this afternoon for the coastal areas of Alabama and Northwest Florida. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s. Water temperatures have begun cooling with values in the upper 70s.

Looking ahead into week 2 or voodoo country, the pattern stays fairly active with a weak ridge developing for the 4th through the 9th of October. But the GFS is progging another deep trough around the 12th to 13th that would bring another round of storms to the area.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

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James Spann will have the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Watch for additional notes here on the latest weather developments. Enjoy your day and Godspeed.

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Dry Today, Rain Tomorrow

| 2:22 pm September 27, 2014

For most of the state today, we are seeing partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions. Temps are staying a few degrees cooler as well, with most locations hanging in the upper 70s this afternoon. It continues to be dry across the entire state, and we are not expecting to see much in the way rain for the rest of your Saturday. Any plans you have this evening should see mild and dry weather.

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However, the atmosphere over the state is in the process of becoming saturated as dew points are increasing from south to north across the state. Showers and storms have developed across the North-Central Gulf and these will move north overnight. As moisture levels continue to increase, we will begin to see an upper-level trough approaching the region, and this trough will be enhancing uplift across the Southeast. During the overnight hours, we are looking for showers and storms to develop and spread across much of the area. A soaking rain should set in tonight and last through much of Sunday as well into Monday. Model data continues to paint a soggy picture for Central Alabama as 1-2 inches of rain are in the forecast.

As we look as the latest 48 hour QPF output for rainfall totals from this evening until Monday evening, it shows much of the state will see plenty of rain. This afternoon’s model run has actually increased totals across the state, and rainfall totals closer to two inches are forecast, with possibly three inch totals in some areas. We will be watching for the threat of flooding in some localized areas, but as dry as it as been lately, we should be okay. Nevertheless, from tonight through Monday, be prepared for a soaking rain, and make sure you have the rain gear handy.

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