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Category: Alabama’s Weather

Only Isolated Showers Later Today

| 6:25 am July 7, 2015

HOTTER, DRIER DAYS: A fairly typical summer weather pattern is setting up across the Deep South this week thanks to a developing upper ridge. The high resolution HRRR model does show a few showers across North/Central Alabama this afternoon, but they will be very widely spaced.

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A decent chance we reach 90 degrees today for the first time since June 29. Going seven consecutive days below 90 in summer in very rare in Alabama.

REST OF THE WEEK: Not much change tomorrow through Friday; partly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers or storms. Afternoon highs generally between 90 and 93… pretty much what you expect this time of the year.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: No change… a 5940 meter 500 millibar ridge will be overhead, meaning hot afternoons with hazy sunshine and only isolated showers or thunderstorms. Highs for the weekend will be in the low to mid 90s.

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NEXT WEEK: The heat ridge begins to shift westward, and that should open the door for lower heat levels and better rain changes toward the middle and latter part of the week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: Looking good through the weekend along the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only widely scattered storms. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low to mid 90s inland. The sea water temperature early this morning on the Alabama Gulf Coast is 83 degrees.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… fairly typical of an El Nino year. Most of the action remains in the western Pacific.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on the new episode we recorded last night.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Hotter Afternoons, Fewer Showers

| 1:08 pm July 6, 2015

CALMER WEATHER AHEAD: The persistent northwest flow aloft pattern that was over Alabama has broken down, and the weather will be calmer this week. The northwest flow brought a series of waves and boundaries down this way enhancing shower and thunderstorm formation, but now we have an upper ridge building in, and that will mean hotter afternoons and fewer showers and thunderstorms.

We have little showing up on radar this afternoon, but a “pop up” shower or storm will remain possible in random places through the evening hours.

REST OF THE WEEK: A decent chance we see a high at 90 degrees tomorrow, making it the first day with a 90 degree high since June 29. Going consecutive days under 90 in Alabama in late June and July is pretty remarkable. During the peak of the daytime heating process tomorrow, we might see a shower or two, but they should be very widely spaced.

Then, we expect very typical July weather Wednesday through Friday with partly sunny days, and the risk of “widely scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. Highs will be in the 90 to 93 degree range, and the chance of any one spot getting wet will be only in the 20 percent range.

THE WEEKEND: A 5940 meter 500 mb ridge will be on top of us, so most communities will be dry Saturday and Sunday, although, of course, one or two afternoon storms could fire up in the hot, humid environment.

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We have plentiful soil moisture, and that will help to keep heat levels down a bit (part of the sun’s energy is used to evaporate soil moisture, instead of heating the ground, which heats the air).. still afternoon highs should be somewhere between 92 and 95 both days with a good supply of hazy sunshine through scattered cumulus clouds.

NEXT WEEK: The ridge breaks down, and a new upper trough forms over the eastern half of the nation, meaning temperatures should trend downward, with a better chance of scattered showers and storms by mid-week. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

AT THE BEACH: About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day through the weekend on the Central Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, and of course you will probably see a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. Sea water temperatures are running mostly in the low 80s.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin remains very quiet… all of the action is over the western Pacific. Typhoon Chan-Hom will make a run for China in 5 days or so.

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WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Trending Hotter and Drier

| 6:17 am July 6, 2015

RADAR CHECK: The weather is pretty quiet at daybreak across Alabama; we note just a few small, isolated showers over the northeast counties of the state. Temperatures are mostly in the 67-72 degree range.

THE DAY AHEAD: We will still mention the risk of a few scattered showers or storms this afternoon and early tonight, but they will be fewer in number as an upper ridge begins to build across the Deep South. The high will be in the mid to upper 80s… it is very interesting to note that Birmingham has failed to reach 90 degrees so far during the month of July. The last time we had a high of 90 or higher was back on June 29, when the high was 91. This will be the the seventh consecutive day with a high only in the 80s.

We do note SPC has parts of West and South Alabama under a “marginal” risk of severe storms later today; where they do form the storms could be pretty strong in that part of the state.

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RES OF THE WEEK: The upper ridge will continue to slowly build, meaning the northwest flow pattern that brought the enhanced rain coverage is gone for a while. Expect partly sunny days with a few isolated afternoon storms, but many places will have a chance to dry out. And, we heat up… a good chance we do see 90 degree heat tomorrow, with low 90s likely Wednesday through Friday.

The chance of any one spot getting wet each day will be in the 20-30 percent range, and most of the showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weekend looks very routine for mid-July in Alabama…. partly sunny, hot, humid days with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 91-94 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS suggests the upper trough over the eastern U.S. will become established again, with the heat ridge moving back to the west. This means next week should be wetter and not as hot… see the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.

GULF COAST WEATHER: Looks good this week with about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily from Panama City Beach west to Gulf Shores, and the usual risk of a passing storm from time to time. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the mid to upper 80s, with low 90s inland. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab has dropped to 79 degrees.

TROPICS: Very quiet across the Atlantic basin with very dry air in many regions, and tropical storm formation is not expected this week. Most of the action is over in the western Pacific.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will produce this week’s show tonight at 8:30 CT… you can watch it on “James Spann 24/7″ on cable systems around the state, or on the web here.

CONNECT: You can find me on all of the major social networks…

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

More Storms Expected

| 6:59 am July 5, 2015

A quick look at the radar this morning showed much of the action occurring across South Alabama where the boundary sagged last night. The flash flood watch issued yesterday was allowed to expire this morning. Additional showers are expected to develop later today in the warmth of the afternoon.

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At 500 millibars, the small upper low was located over the eastern half of Tennessee as it slowly migrates northeastward reducing its influence on our weather pattern. As the low gets absorbed into the primary westerly flow and moves into the Mid-Atlantic States, the pattern across the Southeast US will be replaced by gradual ridging as the Bermuda high builds across the southern US from the western Atlantic. This upper air pattern should favor a return to more diurnally driven showers and storms for the week ahead as temperatures also climb back into the lower 90s.

With the westerlies located along the northern tier of the US, another cold front will approach the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys at mid-week but is expected to wash out before we can see any kind of air mass change. This keep the moist air mass in place and keeps scattered showers and storms in the forecast for much of the week ahead.

The Atlantic Basin remains especially quiet as the South Atlantic remains covered by a large mass of dry Saharan air. There was a little more action in the Eastern Pacific where a tropical depression is likely to form early next week well out in the Pacific.

The SPC in Norman, OK, has continued a marginal risk of severe storms along the Gulf and Southeast US coasts for today with an enhanced risk of severe storms centered mainly on South Dakota later in the day. They have only a marginal risk area ahead of that front for Monday or Day 2.

Headed to the beach? About 6 to 8 hours of sunshine daily for the Central Gulf Coast heading into next week, from Dauphin Island to Panama City Beach. Storms will be more numerous today, but each day in the week ahead there will be a decent chance for a passing storm from time to time, fairly typical with the daily sea breeze effect. Highs on the immediate coast will remain in the mid to upper 80s, with lower 90s inland. Sea water yesterday afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was reported to be 81 degrees.

Looking out into voodoo country, the GFS continues to advertise the potential for the trough to stay a feature across the eastern US into Week 2. While the ridge builds and decays, the presence of the overall trough across the eastern third of the country is certainly a positive sign for keeping any extreme heat at bay.

James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing on Monday morning. Check back here often for updates on the Central Alabama weather.

-Brian-

Afternoon Update

| 2:05 pm July 4, 2015

After the very active start to the day, we have see a lull in the action and actually have see some decent sunshine across portions of the state. The breaks in the cloud cover, as seen below, are allowing instability to build and we are once again seeing convection blossom across portions of the Southeast.

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Under these puffy white clouds, we are seeing numerous showers and storms. These storms are producing a lot of lightning, gusty winds, intense rainfall, and possibly even some hail. A quick look at the radar shows a cluster of storms over West Alabama and they are tracking towards the east. It looks as though the bulk of the activity will be staying just to the south of Interstate 20 corridor.

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Click image to enlarge.

For the rest of today we will continue to see showers and storms develop across Central Alabama and these could affect some of those fireworks shows, but hopefully we will see enough breaks in the action that will allow the shows to go on. Heading into Sunday, expect more of the same across the state. A stall frontal boundary to our north, and a warm and moist air mass will allow for numerous showers and storms to develop once again tomorrow. These storms will produce loads of lightning, but flooding could be the greatest concern. A reminder, much of Central Alabama remains under a flash flood watch through Sunday morning.

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Watch May Be Issued

| 11:46 am July 4, 2015

AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN MS…EXTREME W-CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

SUMMARY…THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
MONITORED AND A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.

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DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN
EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE OF
MISSISSIPPI…WITH RECENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED COLD
POOL OVER WEST-CENTRAL MS…AND ALSO IN THE VICINITY OF THE E-W
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR JACKSON TO JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN. AMPLE HEATING
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY…AND 25-35 KTS OF WSW
FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM AGL LAYER IS FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH OVERALL STORM
MOTIONS. A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE EASTWARD-MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR…AND AN ISOLATED THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MS/FAR
W-CENTRAL AL.

RADAR TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 18Z.