Find us on Google+

Category: Alabama’s Weather

Simple Says Satellite Sheldon

| 1:36 pm June 24, 2016

2016 June 24 Alabama Wx blog

It’s a pretty simple pattern…best chance of rain in North Alabama today, but can limp into the Central Part later this afternoon/evening.

Then hot, hot, hot for most of the state this weekend with little or no rainfall, except a better chance the further east and northeast you are.

Will have to watch a weather system now in the Pacific NW that may increase the chance of showers either later Monday or Tuesday.

Well, its summertime in the South and living is slowing down.

Take care, drink lots of water and keep the pace SLOW!

Midday Nowcast: Another Hot Day, Followed By A Hot Weekend

| 12:14 pm June 24, 2016

vis0

20160621_AL_trd

At the noon time hour across Central Alabama, skies are mostly clear with the exception of a few cirrocumulus floating overhead. Radar at this time is free of any rainfall, which is actually not good news because parts of Alabama are listed under severe drought conditions by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Hopefully with the remnants of a couple of MCSs moving through Tennessee leaving mesoscale boundaries across the state will be the catalyst for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA: At the 12:00 PM hour, temperatures across Central Alabama were well up into the 80s. Here is a list of readings from across the state:

Birmingham: 89
Anniston: 87
Tuscaloosa: 88
Muscle Shoals: 86
Huntsville: 86
Alexander City: 88
Montgomery: 89
Dothan: 88
Mobile: 89

REST OF TODAY: Skies should remain mostly clear with a good supply of sunshine. As usual in the summertime, a small risk for an afternoon or evening shower or storm developing is possible, but most places in Central Alabama should remain dry. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 90s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for particulate matter. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 24th is 89, while the normal low is 67. The record high for today was set back in 1981 at 99. The record low was set back in 1972 at 54.

WEEKEND WEATHER: A big heat ridge moves over the eastern half of the country on Saturday, so highs will be in the middle and upper 90s. Heat indices will be flirting with the 105 value, so a heat advisory may be required. Just be aware of the heat and slow down your outdoor activities and be sure to stay hydrated by drinking water. The heat continues into Sunday with another hot day with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Again, a heat advisory may be necessary.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: This weekend promises to be beautiful along Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches. It will be seasonably hot, with highs near 90 and lows in the middle 70s. Rain chances will pick up by Monday afternoon and will be fairly high Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Water temperatures were in the middle 80s at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The tropics remain quiet. A large area of cloudiness was noted over the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula. Any development of this area will be slow to occur as it moves on a motion to the west-northwest.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week, the panel entertained Dr. James Fleming from Colby College. Dr. Fleming is a weather and climate historian. You’ll love his stories about the history of weather modification and biographies of weather luminaries Bjerknes, Rossby and Wexler. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Heat Slowly Rising

| 7:09 am June 24, 2016

The remnants of a couple of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) moving through Tennessee this morning are helping to produce cloudiness over the northern third of Alabama, mainly the Tennessee River Valley counties. These MCSs continue to dissipate but are leaving some mesoscale boundaries in place across North Alabama where we may see some scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon. I’m expecting to see an isolated thunderstorm or two develop in the afternoon heat across Central Alabama, but most people will remain dry. If you were watching the radar carefully yesterday afternoon, being sure NOT to blink, there were two small showers that developed and dissipated very quickly. And the heat continues to slowly increase with highs mainly in the middle 90s expected this afternoon as that huge ridge

This weekend promises to be beautiful along Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches. It will be seasonably hot, with highs near 90 and lows in the middle 70s. Rain chances will pick up by Monday afternoon and will be fairly high Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Water temperatures were in the middle 80s at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab.

Tropics remain quiet with the exception of the area of cloudiness I mentioned over the western Caribbean yesterday. Any development of this area will be slow to occur as it moves on a motion to the west-northwest.

two_atl_2d1

SPC has outlined the standard slight risk area for severe weather today across the Carolinas and Virginia along with an area centered primarily on northern North Dakota. Day 2, Saturday, the risk will in the region of the western Great Lakes. Sunday, or Day 3, the slight risk area moves into the eastern Great Lakes area with a marginal risk along the front trailing southwestward into the Central US.

The big heat ridge moves over the eastern half of the country on Saturday, so I expect to see highs in the middle and upper 90s. Heat indices will be flirting with the 105 value, so a heat advisory may be required. Just be aware of the heat and slow down your outdoor activities and be sure to stay hydrated by drinking water.

The heat continues into Sunday with another hot day with highs in the middle and upper 90s. Again, a heat advisory may be necessary.

But changes begin to occur on Monday as that strong closed low moves eastward into Southeast Canada with a cold front trailing southwestward into Tennessee and Arkansas. This helps to beat that big heat ridge back to the west. That together with more clouds and the potential for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will help to keep the heat in check with highs mainly in the lower and middle 90s. Not much of a reduction, but it should be enough to get us away from the need for heat advisories.

Our better chances for rain will come Monday and into Tuesday with the cold front in our area. The GFS has trended a bit slower with the front, so Tuesday will probably be the best day for many people to get wet.

The overall upper air pattern from Wednesday through Friday will be a trough over the eastern US with the ridge once again established over the Southwest US in the vicinity of the Four Corners area. This pattern should offer us some additional heat relief with highs in the 90 to 93 range for the end of next week. This pattern also favors slightly lower humidity with dew points falling back into the middle 60s. Again, not a big change, but just enough to keep it from feeling so oppressively hot.

gfs_z500_vort_conus_27

The trough, though, establishes a northwesterly flow aloft, so the Southeast US will need to be vigilant for the potential development of these MCSs over the Central US that can travel hundreds of miles and bring stormy weather to the Southeast US. The GFS hints at the potential for this to happen. There is no skill this far out in determining exactly when and where these may occur, so we’ll just have to be watchful and be prepared to adjust forecasts as we see them develop.

The overall pattern of the trough in the eastern US is maintained by this run of the GFS all the way through week 2. This keeps us out of any extreme heat. And if you saw the Weather Xtreme Video yesterday, that tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that took aim on Louisiana is, yup, you guessed it, G-O-N-E!!

I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here on Saturday morning. Enjoy the day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

KBHM_2016062400_min_max_16

Midday Nowcast: A Warmer Day Today, Rain Chances Still Very Small

| 12:01 pm June 23, 2016

simuawips

At the noon time hour across Central Alabama, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy and nearly everyone is dry. There are a few isolated showers that have popped up on radar. Two decent showers have formed in Sumter County, one just west of Emelie and the other just southwest of Geiger. The other shower is located just northeast of Moundville in Tuscaloosa County. These are moving off to the east.

The shower activity that moved across parts of Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, and St. Clair counties have dissipated. A small shortwave is in the progress of moving across the state, and those showers formed along that wave. It has now moved into drier air aloft and there should be no more showers forming along it.

TORNADO KILLS 51 IN CHINA: At the latest report from the city of Yancheng in the Jiangsu Province, severe thunderstorms moved through the area around 2:30 PM local time. A tornado developed and flattened factories and vehicles were swept away. Latest report says 51 dead and dozens injured.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA: At the 12:00 PM hour, temperatures across Central Alabama were well up into the 80s. Here is a list of readings from across the state:

Birmingham: 85
Anniston: 86
Tuscaloosa: 83
Muscle Shoals: 89
Huntsville: 88
Alexander City: 87
Montgomery: 86
Dothan: 86
Mobile: 87

REST OF TODAY: Mostly clear skies will persist for Central Alabama through the remainder of the day. Most communities in the area will remain dry, but a very small risk of an afternoon or evening shower is possible, especially for areas north and west of the I-59 corridor. Once we lose the sun heating the air, any showers should dissipate quickly. Afternoon highs will be in the mid 90s, with a few spots reaching the upper 90s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for particulate matter. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 23rd is 89, while the normal low is 67. The record high for today was set back in 1897 at 100. The record low was set back in 1972 at 48.

TOMORROW’S WEATHER: Little change in our weather for tomorrow. Skies will be mostly sunny and hot afternoon temperatures are expected. Many locations should see highs in the mid to upper 90s, and with higher humidity values, heat index values will be near or over the 100° mark. Once again, most locations in Central Alabama will remain dry, but there is a very small risk for an afternoon or evening shower.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: The rest of this week and into the weekend promises to be beautiful along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. It will be seasonably hot with highs near 90 and lows in the middle 70s. Rain chances will pick up by Monday afternoon and will be fairly high Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Water temperatures remained warm with 83 degrees reported at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: The tropics remain quiet. A large area of cloudiness was noted over the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, but there were no signs of any development in that area. Looking out into voodoo country, tropical weather enthusiasts will probably like what the GFS is cooking up now. From July 4th through July 6th the GFS picks up on what could be another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that takes aim for Louisiana. We’ll watch this feature in future runs, IF its there.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week, the panel entertained Dr. James Fleming from Colby College. Dr. Fleming is a weather and climate historian. You’ll love his stories about the history of weather modification and biographies of weather luminaries Bjerknes, Rossby and Wexler. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Summer Heat into the Weekend

| 6:58 am June 23, 2016

Once again this morning Central Alabama finds itself coming under a large upper ridge that will keep it hot through the weekend. There were a few clouds in the morning sky, but we’ll still see plenty of sunshine today to warm the air into the lower and middle 90s.

g13.2016175.1045_MGM_irbw

The rest of this week and into the weekend promises to be beautiful along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. It will be seasonably hot with highs near 90 and lows in the middle 70s. Rain chances will pick up by Monday afternoon and will be fairly high Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Water temperatures remained warm with 83 degrees reported at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk for severe storms over West Virginia, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky today as the system that brought the severe storms to northern Illinois and Indiana progresses eastward. Day Two (Friday) shows a slight risk along the eastern Carolinas and across northern North Dakota. Day Three (Saturday) will see the best chances for organized severe weather across Wisconsin and Minnesota with a marginal risk extending southwest into the Texas Panhandle.

The tropics remain quiet. A large area of cloudiness was noted over the western Caribbean and the Yucatan Peninsula, but there were no signs of any development in that area.

That upper ridge will remain the primary weather feature in the weather pattern for Central Alabama through Sunday. A strong upper low moving across the southern section of Canada will begin to beat that ridge back to the west on Monday as the overall upper air pattern makes a significant change. This means that we stay quite warm into the weekend with highs in the middle 90s and some spots pushing the upper 90s. Heat index values could push that 105 mark, so a heat advisory might be required.

By Tuesday, a trough has begun digging into the eastern US which will help to push a front into the Tennessee River Valley. So Monday and into Tuesday we should see better chances for rain although it will continue to be the showery variety so not everyone may get wet. Temperatures will fall back too as a result of the clouds and the presence of more showers. Look for highs to top out in the lower 90s, basically 90 to 92.

gfs_z500_vort_noram_23

The upper air pattern keeps that trough along the East Coast of the US, so we’ll be under a northwesterly flow. The GFS is once again hinting at the potential for the development of an MCS or two in that flow. This is the development of a large cluster of thunderstorms over the Plains states that will make its way southeastward and could affect parts of the Southeast US. There is no skill this far out to be specific on exactly when and where these develop. This requires keeping a watchful eye for this type of thing to happen with adjustments to forecasts sometimes at the last minute.

Looking out into voodoo country, tropical weather enthusiasts will probably like what the GFS is cooking up now. The GFS maintains a trough over the eastern half of the US as we enter July. That means we should stay warm but keep out of any extreme heat. From July 4th through July 6th the GFS picks up on what could be another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico that takes aim for Louisiana. We’ll watch this feature in future runs, IF its there.

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here by 7 to 7:30 on Friday morning. I hope you enjoy your day. Godspeed.

-Brian-

KBHM_2016062300_min_max_16

A Later-Than-Midday Nowcast: I Saw Some Sprinkles

| 2:14 pm June 22, 2016

simuawips

Sorry for the Later-Than-Midday Nowcast for today. At this hour, a mix of sun and clouds are covering much of Central Alabama, with a few isolated sprinkles and light showers out there. I actually had a few sprinkles show up on my windshield as I was passing through the northern part of Fultondale about an hour ago. Presently, a shower was located just north or Brilliant in Fayette County, and another was located just east of Bear Creek. Another small isolated shower is located just east of West Jefferson. These were moving slowly to the northeast. The rest of the area is high and dry.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA: At the 2:00 PM hour, temperatures across Central Alabama were mostly in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s. Here is a list of readings from across the state:

Birmingham: 89
Anniston: 89
Tuscaloosa: 89
Muscle Shoals: 90
Huntsville: 92
Alexander City: 88
Montgomery: 90
Dothan: 87
Mobile: 86

REST OF TODAY: A mix of sun and clouds will persist for Central Alabama through the remainder of the day. Most communities in the area will remain dry, but as we have seen on radar already, a very small risk of an afternoon or evening shower is possible. Once we lose the sun heating the air, any showers should dissipate quickly. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for ozone and particulate matter. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 22nd is 89, while the normal low is 67. The record high for today was set back in 1930 at 101. The record low was set back in 1992 at 51.

TOMORROW’S WEATHER: Little change in our weather for tomorrow. More sun than clouds, and hot afternoon temperatures. Many locations should see highs in the lower and mid 90s, and with higher humidity values, heat index values will be nearing or exceeding the 100° mark. Rain is not expected, but we can not completely rule out a rouge isolated afternoon storm somewhere across the Alabama landscape.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: Great weather along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. You’ll find a mostly sunny sky, only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms, and warm temperatures typical of June this week. Highs will be near 90. Lows will be in the middle 70s. The sea water temperature early this afternoon at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach is 82.8 degrees. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. The same can be said for the eastern Pacific as well. Scanning the globe, there are currently no active tropical cyclones ongoing.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY: Back in 1972, Hurricane Agnes deluged Pennsylvania and New York State with torrential rains resulting in the most costly flood in U.S. history. In the Middle Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania, 24 hour rainfall amounts were generally 8 to 12 inches, with up to 19 inches in extreme southwestern Schuylkill County. At Wilkes-Barre, PA, the dike was breached destroying much of the town. Flooding resulted in 117 deaths and 3.1 billion dollars damage.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week, the panel entertained Dr. James Fleming from Colby College. Dr. Fleming is a weather and climate historian. You’ll love his stories about the history of weather modification and biographies of weather luminaries Bjerknes, Rossby and Wexler. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Heat Continues That Upward Trend

| 7:05 am June 22, 2016

There were a few clouds in the Central Alabama sky this morning, but as that huge ridge to our west continues to nose slowly into the Southeast US, the heat will continue to climb. I expect to see highs mainly in the lower 90s – high in Birmingham yesterday was 92 – but some spots will certainly challenge the mid 90s. If you are looking for some real heat, try Death Valley, CA, where the high yesterday was 126 degrees, but the humidity was around 5 percent.

The Midwest is looking at a very active day today in a band running from southern Minnesota across the Chicago area and into western Ohio to about Cincinnati. All modes of severe weather will be possible, and there is a potential to see a long-lived derecho event. The severe weather in the vicinity of Chicago is likely to wreak havoc with flights later today and into tonight.

IL_swody1

The severe weather risk shifts to the Mid-Atlantic states on Day 2, Thursday. By Friday, still a slight risk in the Carolinas and another one centered on northern North Dakota.

Fortunately, the tropics remain quiet.

Great week for beachgoers underway along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. You’ll find mostly sunny skies, only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms, and warm temperatures typical of June this week. Highs will be near 90. Lows will be in the middle 70s. The sea water temperature at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was 82 degrees. See the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.

The ridge will remain the feature of interest in our weather pattern through the weekend and into Monday. A front drags into the Southeast US Friday, so it looks like isolated showers will be possible on that day and into the weekend. Because the upper ridge is going to build stronger on Saturday, we will probably see some pretty hot days with highs in the upper 90s. And with humidity values up, heat indices could increase to 105 degree or higher, so a heat advisory may be required over the weekend. This kind of heat can certainly sneak up on you, so be sure to use good sense by limiting outdoor work, exercise, or play and be sure to stay hydrated while you are active outside.

A strong trough/closed low moves along the US-Canadian border on Sunday and Monday which will help to beat back the ridge and force it to retrograde. This action should lower the heat for us by Monday. Combine this upper air action with the approach of a cold front Monday and Tuesday which will improve rain chances and produce considerably more clouds, and it sure looks like we will see a break in the heat. Highs Monday and Tuesday will probably drop back to around 90.

gfs_z500_vort_conus_27

Come Wednesday, the GFS is projecting a broad trough across the eastern US which places the Southeast US under a northwesterly flow pattern. The GFS is hinting at the potential for a minor short wave in the Kansas/Nebraska area. While there is not much skill in the specific forecast of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) this far out, it is a reminder that we’ll need to stay on our toes and be vigilant about one of these long-lived thunderstorm events that can impact us.

The GFS maintains the idea of troughiness in the eastern US well out into voodoo country. There is also a potential to see a weak closed low over the Lower Mississippi River Valley around July 3rd which means limited summer heat and enough forcing to make thunderstorms somewhat more numerous.

Just a reminder that James Spann is currently on vacation, so we are on a one-a-day schedule with the Weather Xtreme Videos. So I expect to have the next one posted here in the 7 to 7:30 time frame on Thursday morning. Enjoy your day and stay cool. Godspeed.

-Brian-

KBHM_2016062200_min_max_16

Midday Nowcast: Hot And Dry For The First Full Day of Summer

| 11:39 am June 21, 2016

simuawips

Across much of Central Alabama at this time, skies are mostly clear and temperatures are already well up into the 80s. Up in the northeastern counties of the state, there are a few isolated showers that are falling up in Madison and Jackson counties. These are moving to the southeast and could affect the towns of Stevenson, Gurley, Pleasant Groves, and Paint Rock within the next hour. The rest of the state is dry at this moment.

StateTemperatures

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA: At the 11:00 AM hour, temperatures across Central Alabama were mostly in the mid to upper 80s. Here is a list of readings from across the state:

Birmingham: 86
Anniston: 84
Tuscaloosa: 85
Florence: 81
Huntsville: 79
Alexander City: 82
Montgomery: 86
Dothan: 84
Mobile: 85

REST OF TODAY: Skies should remain mostly clear to partly cloudy through the remainder of the day. There will be a weak shortwave moving through the northern counties of Alabama, and there will be just enough instability and moisture present that a few isolated showers and storms could develop north of a line from Hamilton to Cullman to Gadsden. South of that, hot and dry conditions will prevail, with afternoon highs reaching the low 90s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for ozone. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 21st is 89, while the normal low is 67. The record high for today was set back in 1933 at 102. The record low was set back in 1976 at 57.

TOMORROW’S WEATHER: Another hot and dry day is in store for the area. With a dry airmass in place over Central Alabama from an expanding ridge out to our west, and warm air aloft, convection will be held in check. Highs will once again be in the low to mid 90s, with the early morning lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: One of the most gorgeous weeks of the summer is occurring now along the beautiful beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. Mostly sunny skies, only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms, and warm temperatures typical of June will highlight the week. Highs will be near 90F. Lows will be in the middle 70s. Water temperatures are climbing out of the lower 80s into the middle 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

THE TROPICS: TD #4 became Tropical Storm Danielle yesterday and moved inland on the Mexican Coast last evening. It weakened quickly but has been dumping heavy rains in the mountainous regions near the coastline, which can lead to deadly mudslides. Elsewhere the tropics are quiet.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY: Back in 2006, Birmingham reached 100F for the first time since August 29, 2000. It was 101F at Pinson on this very hot day.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week, the panel entertained Dr. James Fleming from Colby College. Dr. Fleming is a weather and climate historian. You’ll love his stories about the history of weather modification and biographies of weather luminaries Bjerknes, Rossby and Wexler. You can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.

Here come the 90s

| 7:03 am June 21, 2016

The high in Birmingham yesterday was 89 degrees, and that was probably the last time we’ll see values under 90 degrees for at least a week. There are some high cirrus clouds across Alabama this morning from convection that went on yesterday well west of us. A cold front dropping into Kentucky this morning may generate a few storms north of us, but Alabama is expected to stay dry as that huge ridge to our west expands its influence into the Southeast US. This means temperatures will go up with lower 90s for highs today. And it won’t feel quite as nice as yesterday as the dew points join the temperatures by moving upward.

Great week for beachgoers underway along the beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida. You’ll find mostly sunny skies, only isolated afternoon and evening showers and storms, and warm temperatures typical of June this week. Highs will be near 90. Lows will be in the middle 70s. Water temperatures are climbing out of the lower 80s into the middle 80s. The detailed beach forecast can be found here.

Tropical Storm Danielle has moved into eastern Mexico and the National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on that storm. Elsewhere across the Tropical Atlantic things are quiet for now.

The weather system and front moving through the Great Lakes area and Mid-Atlantic States will be the focus for organized severe weather for the next three days. In fact, SPC has outlined a moderate risk for severe storms on Day 2, Wednesday, centered over Chicago. The primary threat for Day 2 will be large hail.

day2otlk_0600-2

The upper ridge will be the primary feature in the weather pattern for the Southeast US for the next several days. The 594 height contour will cover the southern tier of the US from coast to coast Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A weak front will approach the Tennessee River from the north on Friday perhaps aiding in the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not optimistic that many people will see rain. By Friday highs will be well into the middle 90s with some places pushing the upper 90s.

A strong upper low coming across Montana on Saturday will pump up the ridge over the eastern US even more producing what may be the hottest day we’ll see in the week ahead. Look for highs to climb into the upper 90s. A heat advisory may be required as the heat indices surge into the 105 to 108 range. Without a great deal of change, Sunday will also be hot like Saturday.

But the upper low moving across the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday will beat that huge ridge back to the west. That together with the front that it will drag into the Southeast US should be enough to provide us with fairly good chances for thunderstorms. Clouds and the presence of thunderstorms should also bring some relief in the heat with highs held to the lower 90s.

Did you see the Weather Xtreme Video yesterday? If you did, you may remember the impressive closed low over Arkansas around July 5th or so. Well, the GFS is sticking to its guns – sort of. The GFS still has a closed low over Arkansas on July 6th, but this one is considerably weaker than the one we saw yesterday and much more believable. Of course, we’re still talking about voodoo country.

I plan to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here around 7 to 7:30 tomorrow morning. Be sure to check back her for later updates on the Alabama weather scene. Have a great day and Godspeed.

-Brian-

KBHM_2016062100_min_max_16

Midday Nowcast: Sunny Skies and Dry Throughout the Day

| 11:19 am June 20, 2016

simuawips

Sunny skies and warming temperatures are the main focus across Central Alabama at this hour. Not a single drop of rain is showing on the radar, and it should remain that way for the remainder of the day. We may have a few clouds build during the heating of the day, but not enough to drown out the sun.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA: At the 11:00 AM hour, temperatures across Central Alabama were mostly in the upper 70s, with Montgomery being the warm spot at 81. Here is a list of readings from across the state:

Birmingham: 79
Anniston: 79
Tuscaloosa: 78
Muscle Shoals: 81
Huntsville: 83
Alexander City: 78
Montgomery: 81
Dothan: 79
Mobile: 83

REST OF TODAY: High pressure will be will start to expand toward the state from the southern plains states, and this should keep any convective storms from forming not only for today, but for a good bit of the week for Central Alabama. Skies will be mostly clear to sunny, and afternoon highs will be close to normal in the upper 80 to just over 90. Tonight will be mostly clear with overnight lows in the 60s.

CODE YELLOW AIR QUALITY: The Air Quality Index for the Birmingham Metropolitan Area will be in the “Code Yellow” (moderate range) for ozone. People who are unusually sensitive should consider limiting prolonged outdoor exertion.

TODAY’S CLIMATOLOGY FOR BIRMINGHAM: The normal high for June 20th is 88, while the normal low is 66. The record high for today was set back in 1933 at 101. The record low was set back in 1985 at 54.

TOMORROW’S WEATHER: Almost a carbon copy of today. Skies will be mostly clear and afternoon temperatures will be in the low 90s across Central Alabama. Dew points will start to climb back into the 60s, so Tuesday will not feel as comfortable outside as today.

HEADED TO THE BEACH: The entire coast should be mainly dry with only isolated afternoon and evening storms this week and even into the weekend. Highs will be near 90F with lows in the middle 70s. Water temperatures are climbing through the lower 80s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.

two_atl_2d0

THE TROPICS: Tropical Storm Danielle strengthened from a depression early this morning, and is currently located off the coast of Eastern Mexico and is expected to move westward onshore later today or tonight. At this time, Danielle was packing winds at 45 MPH and was moving to the west at 7 MPH. Danielle will not be an impact the weather for Central Alabama.

ASTRONOMICAL SUMMER BEGINS TODAY: Summer arrives officially at 5:34 p.m. CDT today. It will be the first solstice in 70 years to coincide with the Strawberry Moon, the full moon that occurs in June.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY: Back in 1987, thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts up to 70 MPH at Goodland, Kansas. Also on this day in 1989, an early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, Montana, and Yellowstone Park, Wyoming, reported snow that afternoon.

WEATHERBRAINS: This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists at ABC 33/40. This week’s show is a fine one, featuring weather and climate historian James Fleming. Dr. Fleming relates fascinating stories about the history of weather modification and three of the heroes of weather forecasting. The show was recorded Thursday night and will be released into the wild tonight. You won’t want to miss it. Don’t forget you can listen anytime on the web, or on iTunes. You can find it here.