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Model output statistics (MOS) products are now in pretty good agreement tonight… the GFS shows a low of 46 for Birmingham, while the NAM is showing 44. We will stay in the middle and forecast 45. Of course, there will be a big spread, and we figure temperatures at daybreak tomorrow will range from 39 to 49 degrees. We note the low of 39 this morning at Black Creek, a small community northeast of Gadsden in a low spot on the top of Lookout Mountain. Sure beats the low 90s we saw a few days ago.
We will continue to forecast sunny days and clear chilly nights through Sunday. Afternoons will be warmer over the weekend; the GFS warms us to 82 on Saturday and 85 on Sunday. We won’t go quite that warm for now, but one way or another the humidity will remain low and the weather will remain very comfortable.
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: Still looks like our next chance of a shower will be Tuesday of next week, but the main part of that system will remain well to the north, and rain amounts down here should be rather light and spotty.
The 12Z GFS continue to advertise a much stronger system toward the end of next week, in the October 18-19 time frame, with a much better chance of showers and storms. And, following that another sharp change to cooler weather is likely. I still think some of the colder valleys of North Alabama could see the first frost of the season in the October 20-22 period.
TROPICS: A small scale low pressure area shows up well to the east of Bermuda, in the middle of the Atlantic. This has some potential to become a tropical depression as it moves northeast across the open water of the Atlantic; it is no threat to land. The Caribbean remains unsettled, but there is nothing organized for now.
STORM ALERT XTREME: We hope to see you on Saturday, November 10 at the BJCC for our annual severe storm training session. Once again this year, the Alabama International Auto Show is a sponsor of Storm Alert XTREME, and it will be held at the BJCC. This is your chance to learn more about Alabama weather, and to be trained as a storm spotter. ABC 33/40 Meteorologist Brian Peters, long time WCM (Warning Coordination Meteorologist) for the National Weather Service in Birmingham, will teach a basic and advanced course on spotting small scale features within thunderstorms that are very important to meteorologists. Read more about Storm Alert XTREME here.
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I enjoyed speaking to the Cleburne County retired teachers today in Heflin… and what a day for a drive. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…