The Thursday afternoon edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
What a winter weather pattern we have. The northern branch of the jet delivering Arctic air over most of the continental U.S., and the southern branch, the Pineapple Express, delivering moisture and a stream of waves moving across the southern part of the nation. This pattern has snow and ice all over it; and the worst may be yet to come. The Alabama snow lovers have to love this set-up; if we come away with no snow or ice here (North Alabama) during the next five weeks, it will be a minor miracle. Looks the southern winter storm machine stays locked and loaded for the foreseeable future.
SHORT TERM: Mostly cloudy and cold weather continues through Saturday. Ripples in the southern stream will mean the risk of a few ice pellets or areas of drizzle in a few spots, but the weather will be generally dry. Sunshine will be very limited due to the constant high altitude moisture feed from the west. Highs will remain in the 40s; the GFS MOS remains way too warm.
THE WEEKEND: A major winter storm will bring a big pile of snow to places like Amarillo, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, and Oklahoma City tomorrow night into Saturday. Some significant snow is possible as far south as I-20, or a line from Abilene to Dallas. The might be measuring the snow in terms of feet instead of inches across parts of the Texas South Plains (around Lubbock). That storm will move into Alabama on Sunday; as discussed here in recent days we think there will be enough warm air advection with the system for a cold rain; any snow or ice should be confined to the Tennessee border and points north.
NEXT WEEK: Very complicated. Rain should diminish a bit, or maybe move south of here, on Monday. The next upper air shot wave in the southern jet will bring more snow into Texas and Oklahoma, and there is some potential that upper wave spins up a surface low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico on Monday. This means the potential for wintry precipitation (snow, sleet, or freezing rain) for PARTS of the Deep South; no way to resolve details right now. This would be in the Tuesday-Tuesday night-early Wednesday time frame (January 23-24)… yeah, I know, the GFS keeps the precipitation with the wave south of us, but the GFS has not been good with specific events in this situation. Lets get the Sunday system on by us and we can focus on this.
LONG RANGE: Watch the video and see how the 12Z GFS offers opportunities for severely cold weather and occasional winter storm threats here for the next 16 days. I do believe this will be a winter to remember for some, if not most people across the Deep South. I know that makes lots of people mad when I make this statement, but I am not here to make anyone happy or angry; I am here to simply tell you what I think the weather will do based on the best science and the years of experience I have.
“THE WEATHER CHANNEL”: Lots of comments on my discussion with Rick and Bubba this morning about the woman on “The Weather Channel” who says those of us who believe the warming in recent years is natural should have our AMS seal revoked. This lady should have at least waited until the summer when the weather is a little warmer! I thought the man-made global warming crowd was all about tolerance and the First Amendment… guess not. They want tolerance unless you disagree with them. I will write a long blog post about this later… just too much going now.
WEATHER PARTY: Join the party and check out the latest weather news over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. Always some interesting reading over there. Remember, you can register and you can submit links and vote on them to determine what is published on the main page.
Running a little behind this afternoon… I enjoyed speaking to a big Bible study group this morning at Indian Springs Baptist Church… I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!